The Eurovision 2016 semi-final allocation draw is now complete. Earlier this morning host broadcaster SVT determined two important aspects of the semis: They assigned the Big 5 countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) and host country Sweden to vote in one of the two semi-finals, and they assigned the remaining 37 countries to the two semi-finals. You can see the full breakdown below. The second semi-final is definitely an Eastern affair, with only five Western European countries — Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Norway and Switzerland— and Australia participating.
SVT personalities Alexandra Pascalidou and Jovan Radomir had the honour of hosting the event. Greek fans should know Pascalidou — she was the Greek commentator at Eurovision 2005 when Helena Paparizou won. As for Serbian-born Radomir, he co-wrote the lyrics to Marija Serifovic’s “Molitva” and presented Sweden’s points in 2004 and 2006. That’s major Euro-star power!
Where do the Big Five and Sweden Vote?
First Semi Final
- France
- Spain
- Sweden (pre-determined by the reference group)
Second Semi Final
- Italy
- United Kingdom
- Germany (NDR requested this position and it was granted by the reference group)
Eurovision 2016 Semi-Finals: Allocation draw
The first semi-final will have 18 participants and the second will have 19 participants.
FIRST SEMI FINAL
First half
- Armenia
- Croatia
- Finland
- Greece
- Hungary
- Moldova
- The Netherlands
- Russia
- San Marino
Second half
- Austria
- Azerbaijan
- Bosnia & Herzegovina
- Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Estonia
- Iceland
- Malta
- Montenegro
SECOND SEMI FINAL
First half
- Belarus
- FYR Macedonia
- Ireland
- Israel
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Poland
- Serbia
- Switzerland
Second half
- Albania
- Australia
- Belgium
- Bulgaria
- Denmark
- Georgia
- Norway
- Romania
- Slovenia
- Ukraine
A photo posted by wiwibloggs (@wiwibloggs) on
Eurovision Semi-Final allocation draw pots
In case you’re wondering, ahead of the draw countries were placed into the following pots. These pots were created on the basis of historical voting patters, to help reduce “neighbourly voting”. With the return of Croatia, Bosnia, Ukraine and Bulgaria, as well as Australia making its first semi-final appearance, organisers had to create a sixth pot — adding one to the normal five.
There are obvious pots for Balkans, Nordics and ex-Soviets, but the rest are more mixed. Australia share Pot Four with the likes of Belgium and the Netherlands, whilst Ireland and Lithuania have been put together in Pot Five, no doubt due to the influx of Lithuanians to the Emerald Isle in recent years (as seen in the Irish public voting at Eurovision recently). There are lots of other little quirks, which you can see in full below.
Pot 1
Albania
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Croatia
F.Y.R. Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
Slovenia
Pot 2
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Iceland
Latvia
Norway
Pot 3
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Russia
Ukraine
Pot 4
Australia
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Greece
The Netherlands
Pot 5
Czech Republic
Ireland
Lithuania
Malta
Poland
San Marino
Pot 6
Austria
Hungary
Israel (Israel are confirmed to participate in the second semi-final)
Moldova
Romania
Switzerland
Let’s hope that a few countries have bad songs, so that they will be easier to narrow down!
My Grand Final Prediction this year! (I know not all countries have shown song’s but I’m basing on what countries have and previous years!)
My Grand Final Prediction:
1- Russia
2- Australia
3- United Kingdom
4- Ukraine
5- Norway
6- Ireland
7- Sweden
8- Israel
9- Latvia
10- Armenia
11- Slovenia
12- Bulgaria
13- Bosnia and Herzegovina
14- Hungary
15- Malta
16- Italy
17- Serbia
18- The Netherlands
19- Italy
20- Germany
21- Austria
22- Albania
23- Armenia
24- France
25- Finland
26- Iceland
I know we just know a few but here are my guesses to go to the final
1: Greece, Hungary, Russia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia and MAAAYBE Armenia, Malta, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Austria and Finland
2: Australia, Poland, Bulgaria,Romania, Ukraine, and Maaaybe Ireland, Serbia, Albania, Denmark (idk), Norway and Slovenia.
I know it’s more than 10,but you ought to give me some room.
<y predictions after the semi-final allocation draw:
For Semi Final 1:
Certain qualifiers are: Greece, Hungary, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Bosnia Herzegovina
Likely Qualifiers are: Finland, Croatia, Estonia, and Iceland
Borderline qualifiers are: Moldova, Cyprus, Malta, Czech Republic, Montenegro, and Austria
Non-qualifiers: The Netherlands, Armenia, and San Marino
For Semi Final 2:
Certain qualifiers: Australia, Serbia, Denmark, Romania, Norway and Ukraine
Likely Qualifiers: Ireland, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Poland
Borderline qualifiers: Latvia, Switzerland, Albania, Slovenia and Belgium
Non-qualifiers: Belarus, Georgia, and Israel
Wow, Greece got lucky there. Greece or Russia will top the semi.
@dutchie, its true that the Turkish diaspora will help Serhat, but in my eyes, the only countries that would vote for San Marino because of him are Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. That would give San Marino a boost of 36 points max.(But Armenia and Azerbaijan will be too busy giving their 12’s to Russia and Russia the same.) Given that this is an 18 country semi final, 36 points won’t be enough to secure a spot in the grand final. They need to write a stellar song for Serhat, something along the lines of Bosnia and Herzegovina 2011 (I think… Read more »
@ben
In semi 2 you have 6 certain qualifiers, and 5 likely qualifiers… how can you still have borderline qualifiers in that case 🙂
Having a Turkish singer is indeed a genius move from San Marino, otherwise like The Netherlands they would have to come with a crazy good song to even make it past this semi final.
Ben: I think San Marino has a chance in qualifying. They have a Turkish singer as representative and the Turkish diaspora will likely save him from the voting.
It seems like this year will be especially ruthless for the borderline qualifiers. Although it is too early to tell, a general prediction is this: In Semi Final 1: Certain qualifiers are: Armenia, Greece, Hungary, Russia, Azerbaijan and Bosnia & Herzegovina Likely Qualifiers are: Finland, Estonia and Iceland Borderline qualifiers are: Croatia, Moldova, The Netherlands, Cyprus, Malta, Czech Republic, Montenegro and Austria Non-qualifiers: San Marino For Semi Final 2: Certain qualifiers: Australia, Serbia, Denmark, Romania, Norway and Ukraine Likely Qualifiers: Ireland, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Lithuania and Poland Borderline qualifiers: Latvia, Switzerland, Israel, Albania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Belgium Non-qualifiers: Belarus, Georgia In… Read more »
Given voting history/patterns and draw, here’s my prediction so far:
Semi 1–Likely to qualify: Russia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Armenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia; Borderline: Finland, Malta, Iceland, Netherlands, Croatia, Montenegro, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Austria; Unlikely: San Marino, Moldova
Semi 2–Likely: Ukraine, Romania, Ireland, Australia, Serbia, Denmark, Norway;
Borderline: Latvia, Switzerland, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Israel, Albania, Georgia; Unlikely: Belarus, Macedonia, Belgium.
Anyway, good luck to all the participants! 😀
PP, I think that we should send Jelena Karleusa. I am not her fan but many people in the whole Europe likes here, who knows.
Uroš
If we sent Frajle , I don t think so that they wili be finish like Marko, Milan, Moje 3 and Bojana Stamenov with juries, juries don t like when we send pop folk like 2009 ,2010 or kitch stage perforamnce like in 2009,2013,2015. I think if we send Frajle, they wili finish I think with juries like Nina from 2011, but I m affraid that they don t get points from our diaspora like Nina in 2011.
@Denis
It’s possible to say which semi final is strong or weak without hearing the song because usually 5 of the 10 countries are nations that qualify regardless of song so it all depends on what spaces are left after the usual faces have qualified. So yes, in Eurovision is very easy to determine the strong and weak semis
Estonia past 7 years:
2009: 18 / 2nd semi-final
2010: 03 / 1st semi-final (Didn’t qualify)
2011: 15 / 2nd semi-final
2012: 14 / 2nd semi-final
2013: 02 / 1st semi-final
2014: 03 / 1st semi-final (Didn’t qualify)
2015: 07 / 1st semi-final
I quess that number 3 isn’t Estonias lucky number. At least we are again in the second half.
PP, do you remember 2009? Jury didn’t allow to Marko to go to final, except he was tenth.
Coline, I am sure that Croatia will be in final, you have Bosnia and Montenegro there. I’d like to be in the first-semi
I’m surprised to ser Denmark and Norway in the same semi, I thought they were guaranteed to be separated like in 2013, since they’re Sweden’s most immediate neighbours.
It seems like the semifinals are well balanced, even though some block voting is always inevitable. In the end we all know what matters the most is the song, let’s remember that las year Moldova missed the final despite being in the semi with Romanía and Ireland also missed out on a semi with many western countries and the Uk voting. Nothing is set in stone.
Maybe Croatia could qualify because Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the same semi as them. Also another thing i shall add is that Serbia and Montenegro will vote for eachother
Why are people already saying “The first semi-final is much stronger” etc?
Most countries haven’t even chosen songs, so how do you know about who’s stronger? We can’t possibly know what’s stronger until we have all the songs and running order.That’s how you know which is the stronger one.
Until then everything is speculations. Yet some are acting as if they are absolute sure about the outcome.
Dammit, why does Switzerland always have to be in semi final 2? I won’t be able to watch the show that night. 🙁
Darren: Ireland’s draw is rather lucky than dreadful. You have support from UK, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Poland and Lithuania.
I have a strong feeling that Ireland has been placed in the dreaded death group for semi final 2. There are way too many 100% qualifiers in this semi. And even though Australia hasnt revealed their song yet I know 100% that it will be in the final. My semi final 2 predictions: 1. Australia 2. Ukraine 3. Latvia 4. Lithuania 5. Poland 6. Serbia 7. Albania 8. Romania 9. Norway 10. Denmark, Georgia, Ireland Semi Final 2 will be the hardest I think, just like it was in Vienna. At Ireland has UK, Australia, Belgium and Germany voting in… Read more »
Once again The United Kingdom are in a semi-final with Poland and Lithuania, the last 3 years show that The UK televotes give MAX POINTS to Poland and Lithuania, thus pointing out the immigration crisis lol….
I am actually glad we (Croatia) are in a different semi than Serbia and Slovenia. Neighborvision is getting on my nerves anyway. I hope best song pass through due to their quality.
Our (Finland’s) start number/semi from 2008 on:
2008: 16/1
2009: 15/1
2010: 05/1
2011: 10/1
2012: 09/1
2013: 05/2
2014: 08/2
2015: 05/1
Conclusion: Mrs. Fortuna is certainly not on our side. But Mr. Murphy is.
Actually Belgium is in a good semi final this year!! They can get votes from UK,Ireland,Switzerland,Norway,Germany,Denmark and Italy…. No Russia,Greece,Azerbaijan,Bosnia-Herzegovina or Armenia! In semi 2 we can also get votes from: Latvia,Lithuania,Ukraine and Belarus <3 So i think Belgium can stand out with Laura <3 (Ps.Belgium was in the final in 2015 with more than the half west European countries voting in semi 1!) Sorry for bad english !!
@joseph
u sure? i can’t see both montenegro and croatia qualifying (unless they have killer songs ofc)
I think there has got to be a sense of bloc voting this year. Greece and Cyprus are in the same semi. Macedonia and Albania are in the same semi. Latvia and Lithuania are in the same semi. I can go on and on. The bright side shows that Moldova and Romania are seperated this year but I do agree with John Christian that this will be the first time all ex-Yugoslav nations are in the Grand Final.
My predictions after the allocation draw:
1. Early exit for Netherlands, Armenia, and San Marino
2. Secured qualification for Bosnia Herzegovina, Greece, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine
3. Possible qualification for FYR Macedonia, Ireland, Austria, Australia, and Switzerland
4. End of drought for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Croatia
5. Rollercoaster ride for Malta
6. First time that all ex-Yugoslav states will compete in the final
No n, I am happy with draw for Latvia, good semi final. But its all about the song.
Btw Israel is written two times
@uhm: That song was average at best, and the live performance was just bad (to be honest I had to watch again, I couldn’t even remember how the song goes). I’m not surprised at all it didn’t qualify. And even if it had, it wouldn’t have placed higher than 20th. Back to the topic, I haven’t had a deep look but I think the obvious loser of the draw is Belgium. They don’t have any of their allies with them, they are competing with Ukraine, Australia, Romania, 2 Baltics (will vote for each other), 2 Scandinavians (will vote for each… Read more »
im, slightly positive with our draw… the second semi final is gonna be exciting!
I’m so not happy with drew for Latvia, a lot of strong countries in 2nd semi. But at the end of all, it’s the song that can get us trough, hopefully it will be good for Latvia.
Are we in the first semi again, jesus.. Every fricking year. And then also in the first part AGAIN, how bad can a place be.
I don’t believe the east /west thing is of much relevance these days, nor should it be. As always there will songs we each are horrified do or don’t do well.
I´m from the Netherlands and actually quite happy with our draw. With a good song the Netherlands will absolutely qualify. I´m counting on points from Finland, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Austria, Sweden, France, Spain and Greece (maybe) and if we have a song that´s good enough the points from the other countries we should be able to qualify. Moldova has bad songs in their NF and Armenia & Azerbaijan won´t vote for each other, so the Soviet blocvoting shall be weak in this one. So yeah, I´m actually quite happy.
wonder what is going to happen if all countries have requests about being in which semi final. I don’t understand why Germany always wants to vote in the second semi final. The big 5 are allocated in the same semi finals since 2014. What happens???
we have strong baltich block in 2 semifinal , Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and they will get points from Ireland ,United Kindgom and Germany.
I think Lithuania, Poland, Latvia have 60 % chance to be on 6,7,8 place in final if we have neighobours voting both with televote and juries.
In first semi final 100 % to go to final
1.Greece
2.Armenia
3.Russia
4.Azerbaijan
5.Bosnia Herzegovina
6.Estonia
Chance of 75 % to go to final
7.Finland
8.Malta
9.Hungary
For 10 place all other countries except San Marino .
In second semifinal
100 % in final
1.Australia
2.Ukraine
80 % chance for final
3.Denmark
4.Norway
if they choose good song at DMGP and MGP
70 % chance for final
5.Romania
For rest of 5 place any countries of 14 can go to final.
@Racal: one thing: Magda Tul with “Jestem”, 2011. Good entry, maybe not a winner but people said it deserved top 10. And what? It finished last in the semi.
@maslo, uhm: Of course everybody wants their country to make the final, there’s nothing wrong about that. But being happy because you’ll have “big diaspora” voting for you in your semi, that’s calling to the worst side of the contest. It’s like saying “I really hope Mr. X will be elected president. He’s great at cheating and corrupting the elections, so I think he has a great shot. Yeah, I’m so happy!! <3" I am being objective about Poland's songs, their results speak for themselves: except for a second place 25 years ago, they've pretty much never achieved anything. Their… Read more »
So, we have Germany, Italy and the UK voting in the same-semi-final for the third year in a row and Ireland and the UK being able to vote for Israel, Lithuania, Poland, Switzerland, Norway and Slovenia, also for the third year in a row!
The fact that this keeps happening is beginning to annoy me now. But at least Ireland and the UK might have chances of voting for great entries IF we get them.
Uros
Do you remember 2011, in with semifinal was Serbia that year, and we go to final thanks to juries.
As always Albania is in the end.Politicsssss,Politicssss Everywhere
@oli
The Latvians aren’t in our semi, and I already mentioned the Swedes. I forgot the Austrians though, they do like their country music.
@dutchie I’m sure there will be more supporters for Douwe Bob. If he picks a decent song, Latvians and Swedes will join the club as the minimum.
Could be worse. Bad: 1st half of second semi is the worst quarter on paper iirc, and while each semi has two returnees (Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina in semi 1; Bulgaria and Ukraine in semi 2) we got a total of 107 points from countries in semi 1, and only 89 from those in semi 2. Also one more country means one less qualifier… Good: Trying not to be dismissive of any other country in our half of the semi but we’re in with a relatively easy bunch. Countries can and do surprise (Latvia 2015, anyone? AMAZING) but generally speaking the… Read more »
@john christian
You’re such an interesting type, for wanting to see NL eliminated because they didn’t select Natalie LaRose, who can’t even bloody sing…
Anyway, I’d say our chances are slim to non-existent with this draw. Douwe Bob may appeal to the Swedes, the Estonians, and the Icelanders, but that’s about it.
btw, from what I’ve seen Semifinal 1 very often tends to be “the Southern-Eastern” one. Weird.
Denmark, Latvia and Norway will give a friendly point exchange. Culturally, they always tend to support each other.
And voila, Greece and Cyprus are in the same semi. 🙂
Can do some more accurate predictions now on the five confirmed entries and I think that only Ireland will qualify as things stand. Albania and Malta could run it close but Belgium and Belarus can book their flights back now.