On March 21 Bulgaria’s Poli Genova became the final act to reveal her Eurovision 2016 song. Our readers were generally quite enthusiastic about her bi-lingual number “If Love Was A Crime”. As wiwireader Hex wrote on our announcement post: “I must say I’m positively surprised. I wasn’t expecting much from Bulgaria but they have outdone themselves. I think this is going direct to the finals.” The bookies have responded with similar warmth. On March 8 SkyBET gave Poli odds of 100/1 to win the grand final. Today they have her down at 28/1. Bet365 narrowed her odds in a similarly dramatic fashion, moving her from 66/1 last week to 25/1 today. That puts her down as 13th favourite to win.
When we last checked in on the odds on March 15, the top five consisted of Russia, Sweden, Croatia, Australia and Latvia — and in that order. Russia’s Sergey Lazarev maintains his position at the top of the table, with his odds at Bet365 narrowing from 2/1 to 7/4, suggesting they have even more faith in his victory now that all 43 songs have been revealed. In fact, the bookies have extended Sergey’s lead over second favourite Frans from Sweden. Bet 365 has widened Sweden from 7/2 to 5/1, while Betfred has moved Sweden from 4/1 to 6/1.
Australia and Croatia battle it out
Australia and Croatia remain locked in a close battle to be third favourite, with betting agencies disagreeing on who deserves that third spot. Bet365, BoyleSports and Ladbrokes give the edge to Croatia’s Nina, while SkyBET, ToteSport and BetFred lean toward Australia’s Dami Im.
Malta: Ira Losco’s odds to win narrow
Malta’s Ira Losco is one of this week’s biggest movers and shakers. Prior to the release of her song “Walk on Water”, Bet365 had her down at 33/1 and Ladrbokes at 20/1, putting her down as 10th favourite overall. Following her video reveal she has narrowed to 12/1 at the former and 10/1 at the latter, putting her solidly in as fifth favourite and pushing Latvia’s Justs to sixth position.
Eurovision 2016: Odds to win (23 March 2016)
Armenia the best, she is winner for me
ira losco no 1
See you all in Australia in 2017!
I don’t get the buzz around Russia’s entry this year. The guy might look good but the song is incredibly outdated. Perhaps a song we would have heard plenty of five years ago. Actually no, say ten years ago!
I do understand the bookies though. They know the voting patterns and Russia ends up high on the left hand side of the chart every year. But no matter how strong their diaspora across Europa might be, it won’t help them win!!
Poland will be the win in this year. Super song, super voice, super everything. Russia will be in first 10.
Russia is completely overrated this year and so is Sweden, one is completely generic, cheesy and gimmicky to the core and te other is just some average song that i simply don’t get why so much hype around it, it will probably end up like Robin Stjernberg back in 2013, mostly ignored on tele-voting and massively overrated by the juries for sure, anyway, i would like to see France winning this year, it would be refreshing to see an actual western country winning after so many years, besides, France hasn’t won since 1977, that’s a very long time already.
“the voting always end up the same”…..”the result will be the same as in the last ten years”……yeah right….Finland 2006, Germany 2010, Denmark 2013, Austria 2014……..go figure.
Who is betting on Frans??? Someone made a compilation of the top 43’s of 1000 different people and according to that frans is around 23-29th so i wouldn’t go putting my bets on him.
Really surprised that Cyprus dont get mentioned in comments and still 12th favorite more or less.
If Russia went to eurovision with “Alter Ego” they will still be favorites.
and
If Cyprus went to eurovision with “You are the only one” would probably be 26th favorite.
That still tells a lot about Eurovision. So what is my point of view. Meet bands/singers that you would otherwise never heard of, enjoy the show and the performances and keep the songs you personally like.
Spain:Catchy and happy.The part where she say say yay yay yay I think that it doesnt sound good.There are better songs. They should have sent something in spanish with more latin sound.Top 15 although. Ukraine:Political! Ukraine had something like a war some years ago so I thinl that her economy is not so strong in order to host eurovision. And the song is boring. Belgium:Very catchy a little bit repetitive but is ok.Also it is full of energy and joy.Unfortunately nobpdy seems to pay attention to that song neither eurofans neither bets. Hungary:It has a great melancholy a song with… Read more »
I think that it will be a battle between Russia and Sweden again.I will explain why. France:Has a good song happy but not very impressive in order to conquer your ears. Norway:A very good entry with high vocals, strong but you feel that it is inspired a bit from Euphoria! Also many will not like the fact that it hears like two songs in one.In the betting odds is not doing well and nobody in eurovision fansites sees that as a potential winner. Croatia:Its modern, but nothing special at all.Its not very catchy.But it will be in top ten. Australia:Nothing… Read more »
However, if the results were driven by politics every year over the past 10 years, why have there been different results each year? Song quality IS a strong factor, sometimes. Last year’s top 5 is evidence of that. (Admittedly the same possibly can’t be said of other years, but more recently ESC results have not been politics-driven, and i wanted to point that out.)
Unfortunately, the voting always end up the same – ex-russian countries spreads the votes between each other, so as nordic countries, central eu is a bit floating… so, not surprised that in top 11 you will already see Russia, Latvia, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan. It is really pity that the votes are not based on the actual song quality but the political correctness. So, my point here is that no matter what the odds for the Eurovision 2016 are – the result will be close to the one in the last 10 years.
My top from Portugal
1 Spain
2 Hungary
3 Germany
4 Italy
5 France
6 Letvia
7 Croatia
8 Norway
9 Malta
10 Australia
See you in MOSCOW 2017, people! We have to admit, Russia has the best package! Thunder and lightning. Followed by Poland! Michal Szpak is awesome…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNtsJT2HC6c
Does anyone else here think Bulgaria can win, or at least do top 3. I think it’s one of the best here.
If another Scadinavian country wins again then we can all be certain that there is something wrong with the marking scheme – 4 years out of 7 is already too high and 5 out of 8 will be beyond a joke. Russia also spends too much time near the top. Let’s have different countries do well – 2014 was epic – we all had beards and serious amounts of alcohol were drunk……:-)
Vlad: And Russia are buy wotes. And if forna Russian states not wote for them, they gonna start war gor that contry. Frans are the winner
@bella Last year Måns got the same amount of hate as Frans so this is looking GOOD for Frans. History repeats itself. Conchita got much love here but the hate was enormous over all. Stats from 2009 until now tells very clearly that the phenomenon with the most love AND hate have won (Except Azerbaijan in 2011 but you all know why they won) Frans is that one this year so I am VERY confident in a good result. Top 5 at least.
We dont need a fake justin bieber in eurovision. Dont let eurovision lose its prestige. Frans should compete in junior esc.
Loo previous years I didnt write comments here.Have you ever seen such a hate for a country who won in the past?
I want Azerbaijan and Norway to get higher because I love their songs and they are two of my favourites to win and for Sweden to drop because their song should NOT be second.
@matt Frans corrupted? LMAO. Sorry but Sweden is not like Russia or Azerbaijan!
Getting so tired with people who tries to deny Frans popularity -.-
Everybody knows frans corrupted to win melodifestivalen. But he cant do this in eurovision
@bella Indeed! They just don’t get it. Too bad.
Eurovision fans are just the easiest to provoke and it’s so funny! HAHA
Loo we have the same opinion.Frans will win people hearts.He had a different song with quality, relaxing.The way he sings is nice and he is also cute! I wish for him to win because he deserves that.I dont care if the people hate me because I support Sweden.Im not sorry…
Actually I would like to win any country from Eastern Europe. Because I want in 2017 to go to Eurovision. And their girls are amazingly hot and pansies. But it better be Croatia, Russia or Serbia )) they have good resorts and warm sea and lots of positives), the Czech Republic is also a good option! Fabulous Prague, cheap tasty beer and beautiful girls.
VOTE FOR CROATIA
You are all wrong. Sweden’s low rating in the poll is due to the anti-Sweden wave and all the trolls. I know that you all know the truth 😉 Frans is charting even more than Måns did last year. You just make yourself look naive and stupid x) Please share your opinions about the song, I respect that some of you don’t like it (Even if I believe almost every person here like it deep inside but just won’t confess it) but do not underestimate that Sweden will get a really good resultat this year as well.
@Mery – I agree with you. In any case, not very important who wins. It is important that we have the spirit of Eurovision and good music.
Poland and Russia are awesome this year. But Poland will never win because Eurovision is political competition, not song. So I think the winner will be Russian.
Well… I think Russia will have a chance of even more as soon as Sergey will take the stage and show its a great show.
Those who say that the song is old – I wonder… Does the music have a shelf life??? Song is done on the large mass. And so it can’t be experimental art-house performance. They do it right.
http://eurovisionparty.lv/sanja-vucic-zaa-serbia/
Frans won’t win. No chance. The song is not good enough and way too repetitive. And the jury already supported Sweden last year. They don’t want to be criticised again for putting Sweden above more popular entries. Right now Frans is kind of popular because of the end of the Swedish pre selection 8and the whole hype about that festival) but that does not mean a lot since it is still 1,5 month to the competition.
Yesterday i played all the Eurovision videos to my Mum and best friend. Both thought Russia would win, but they also really liked Frans from Sweden (which I didn’t expect) and… Serbia. The look on my friend’s face when the Bosnian rap artist appeared was priceless!! 😀
I think the odds are mostly spot on this year.
@bella
The problem is we are so done of going to Sweden because we are out of money and may we cant afford next year. life in sweden is very expensive.
Ok. So the Swedish guy is “viral”. What’s the problem with that? Viral phenomena last less than the flavor of a cheap chewing gum. If this stays until the contest, I will raise my eyebrow and seriously consider social media as an indicator.
Most of the times the bets are right we can not ignore them.If Russia and Sweden remain 1st and 2nd to the very end one of them will win! The polls in eurovision sites dont predict always the winner .Some years they predict right some not.And if Sweden or Russia dont win they will be for sure in top3! I cant understand why everyone hate sweden.If Austria or Denmark had strong entries I would have wanted to see them as winners despite they have won so close to 2016.Its not bad for a country to win two years in a… Read more »
Please not Russia, really not a winning song.
Really overrated. An outdated song, not original, vocals not well at all. He might win the televising not because of its song but …
Really deserve winners Malta and Australia.
calm down, loriane.
1st malta amazing song welldone
1st malta amazing song welldone????
1st malta amazing song welldone????
1st malta amazing song welldone????
You all saying that the Russian song is dated??? That’s the only LAME excuse you all could think of??? Jeez. You could do better than that!!! Oh anyway, any other LAME reasons won’t be welcomr anymore Thank You much!!! Smile!!!
Excellent! Last year we had an homophobic winner and this year we might have a homophobic country winning.
This year is very similar to 2011 – no clear favorite. Sure, Russian song is good, but it’s no Heroes and even if it wins, it will be with a narrow margin. I think the juries are going to pull Armenia, Australia, Malta and Ukraine up. Given that Armenia and Ukraine usually do well with televotes it wouldn’t surprise me if either one of those won.
Russia??? It sounds like a 2000 year song! Omg! Nothing special at all.
Sweden too simple, sometimes simple things work, but this is too much.
We have to take in account the manipulation from juries like last year’s and more… and the diaspora effect. Neighbouring voting too.
But that said… I think Spain and France have the real big hits that are radio fm , iTunes Spotify material. So I expect good result for them. Anyway politics through juries will decide as usual.
Mad-professor
Estonia has itunes where Frans is num 1 ans has spotify (viral and stream). And it charted on stream spotify in all Scandinavia, Poland, Estonia, Czech Rep., Ireland and UK.
I know what I’m talking about, you can check it out on spotify, itunes or kworb.
@mad-professor
Itunes and spotify (no viral) of Estonia
http://kworb.net/itunes/_ee.html
https://spotifycharts.com/regional/?country=ee&recurrence=daily&date=latest