Do Spotify streams predict Eurovision victory for Sweden’s Frans?

Russia’s Sergey Lazarev and Italy’s Francesca Michielin may be dominating the bookies’ odds and YouTube views respectively, but when it comes to Spotify streams Sweden’s Frans comes out on top. The official audio for “If I Were Sorry” has racked up a whopping 28,942,698 streams. To put this in perspective, with 3,206,141 streams, Germany’s Jamie-Lee has the second-most listened to song of Eurovision 2016. That’s some difference! But does it indicate a win for Sweden?

Frans “If I Were Sorry” Spofity audio

Including Sweden and Germany, only seven entries have managed to surpass one million streams. Norway’s Agnete and Italy’s Francesca Michielin are both approaching the three million mark. Meanwhile, Spain’s Barei, Denmark’s Lighthouse X and the Netherlands’ Douwe Bob head towards two million. At the other end of the scale we find Belgium. Laura Tesoro has only managed to get a measly 15,031 streams for “What The Pressure”. However, it should be noted that there was an older version of the song on the site which has now been deleted. It had achieved streams in excess of 250,000 before it was removed.

SPOTIFY RANKINGS: THE LIMITATIONS

As with YouTube, ranking Eurovision entries by Spotify streams is not an exact science. There are several limiting factors which we need to keep in mind. Firstly, in some cases there are multiple versions of the same entry. For the purpose of our ranking, we’ve pulled out the single most streamed version of each song. In some cases that’s the final mix, in other instances it’s the national selection edition. Even when we apply this ranking method we still have to remember that some songs have been on the site for longer, therefore giving them more time to amass listens.

We also have to consider geographical bias. Spotify is a Swedish company, and therefore is very popular in the country and the Nordic region as a whole. The service is also widely used across western Europe. However, it has yet to arrive in several eastern countries. This discrepancy is reflected in the rankings — eight of the top ten most streamed entries are from the west, along with Australia and Russia.

You can take a look at the full rankings below.

Eurovision 2016 entries ranked by Spotify streams

Information correct as of 00.00 CET 1 May.

  1. Sweden: Frans with “If I Were Sorry” 28,942,698 streams
  2. Germany: Jamie-Lee with “Ghost” 3,206,141 streams
  3. Norway: Agnete with “Icebreaker” 2,753,929 streams
  4. Italy: Francesca Michielin with “No Degree of Separation” 2,690,601 streams
  5. Spain: Barei with “Say Yay!” 1,737,932 streams
  6. Denmark: Lighthouse X with “Soldiers Of Love” 1,568,352 streams
  7. Netherlands: Douwe Bob with “Slow Down” 1,556,953 streams
  8. France: Amir with “J’ai Cherché” 880,971 streams
  9. Australia: Dami Im with “Sound Of Silence” 572,264 streams
  10. Russia: Sergey Lazarev with “You Are The Only One” 496,226 streams
  11. Finland: Sandhja with “Sing It Away” 490,605 streams
  12. Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann with “Play” 334,522 streams
  13. Austria:  Zoë with “Loin d’ici” 310,132 streams
  14. Latvia: Justs with “Heartbeat” 291,096 streams
  15. Hungary: Freddie with “Pioneer” 289,918 streams
  16. Poland: Michal Szpak with “Color Of Your Life” 266,713 streams
  17. United Kingdom: Joe and Jake with “You’re Not Alone” 260,237 streams
  18. Ukraine: Jamala with “1944” 226,128 streams
  19. Croatia: Nina Kraljic with “Lighthouse” 199,737 streams
  20. Bulgaria: Poli Genova with “If Love Was A Crime” 188,835 streams
  21. Lithuania: Donny Montell with “I’ve Been Waiting For This Night” 187,623 streams
  22. Iceland: Greta Salóme with “Hear Them Calling” 173,780 streams
  23. Malta: Ira Losco with “Walk On Water” 168,451 streams
  24. Azerbaijan: Samra with “Miracle” 163,451 streams
  25. Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunciková with “I Stand” 159,128 streams
  26. Cyprus: Minus One with “Alter Ego” 156,526 streams
  27. Switzerland: Rykka with “The Last Of Our Kind” 132,170 streams
  28. Ireland: Nicky Byrne with “Sunlight” 104,257 streams
  29. Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan with “LoveWave” 103,126 streams
  30. Belarus: Ivan with “Help You Fly” 101,587 streams
  31. Israel: Hovi Star with “Made Of Stars” 91,292 streams
  32. Serbia: Sanja Vucic ZAA with “Goodbye (Shelter)” 75,634 streams
  33. Moldova: Lidia Isac with “Falling Stars” 74,275 streams
  34. Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala with “Ljubav Je” 67,088 streams
  35. FYR Macedonia: Kaliopi with “Dona” 64,390 streams
  36. Greece: Argo with “Utopian Land” 62,867 streams
  37. Albania: Eneda Tarifa with “Fairytale” 55,314 streams
  38. Slovenia: ManuElla with “Blue And Red” 53,930 streams
  39. San Marino: Serhat with “I Didn’t Know” 48,171 streams
  40. Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz with “Midnight Gold” 42,878 streams
  41. Montenegro: Highway with “The Real Thing” 17,750 streams
  42. Belgium: Laura Tesoro with “What’s The Pressure” 15,031 streams (260,173)

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