While our readers’ favourites to win the Junior Eurovision Song Contest 2016 so far might be Russia’s Sofia Fisenko and the Water of Life Project, YouTube tells a different story – but only just.
If YouTube views are anything to go by, then it seems that FYR Macedonia is poised to take home their first JESC victory, which would mark their first ever Eurovision win of any kind.
As of October 24 — with 12 of the 17 songs revealed for this year’s contest — FYRM’s Martija had clocked 208,215 views on her official music video. That puts her well ahead of Lidia Ganeva from Bulgaria, who has recorded 146,938 views.
Over the last couple of years, in both Eurovision and Junior Eurovision, YouTube views have at times provided a useful (albeit rough) indicator of where public sentiment lies. Ahead of the Eurovision 2016 final, YouTube views put Sergey Lazarev in second — he ultimately won the televote — and Michal Szpak in third — where he did in fact finish with televoters. Ahead of Junior Eurovision 2014, YouTube views predicted that Bulgaria’s Krisia would win. She did, in fact, take the televote.
Of course, there have been plenty of instances where lots of views don’t count for much on the night. A great example is Albania’s Elhaida Dani with “I’m Alive”. She had the second-highest number of views on the eve of the contest, but finished 17th in the final. And at Eurovision 2016 YouTube predicted a win for Italy’s Francesca Michielin, who ultimately came 16th in the final.
You can see the current YouTube standings below. There are three important caveats to this. (1) These views come exclusively from the official music videos, published on the JuniorEurovision.tv web site and are correct as of 24 October at 16:00 CET. (2) Obviously some videos were uploaded before others, so it’s a very rough indicator, but an indicator nonetheless. (3) There is NO televote this year at Junior Eurovision. While views may give a hint of the public sentiment, it does not necessarily predict jury sentiment.
JESC 2016: YouTube views so far:
- FYR Macedonia: 208,215
- Bulgaria: 146,938
- Poland: 139,090
- Russia: 134,328
- Serbia: 112,499
- The Netherlands: 66,615
- Australia: 63,508
- Italy: 54,152
- Ukraine: 36,527
- Cyprus: 33,234
- Belarus: 16,249
- Albania: 10,776
YOUTUBE’S TOP JESC CONTENDERS
FYR MACEDONIA
FYR Macedonia hasn’t had the best luck in recent years, finishing last on its two most recent appearances. But this year it has proven that it can deliver a decent entry. Martija sings 90% of the song in her native language (which is great to hear), bringing authenticity to her dance hit, with a great drop and a catchy chorus. If YouTube comments are anything to go by, the public are loving it as well!
BULGARIA
This could be a very good year for Bulgaria. After doing a great job at hosting Junior Eurovision 2015, the country has delivered a strong song which is somewhere between a ballad and an up-tempo pop hit. Bringing a beautiful message and oozing Polina Gagarina realness, young Lidia says the colour of our skin doesn’t matter, asking, “What’s the difference between us?” We can think of one: YOU CAN SING AND WE CANNOT!
POLAND
Showing their ambitions after returning to the contest, Poland hosted a proper national final. And Olivia Wieczorek — a small girl with a huge voice —came out on top. Singing entirely in Polish, she shows off her breathtaking voice and builds the song slowly over time. The song may not be completely original, but the artist makes the performance.
Do you think YouTube views hold the key for a victory? Is it relevant any more now that JES is 100% jury voting? Who do you think will amaze us all in Valletta? Let us know below.
Why are people taking views into consideration? There’s no televote this year anyway lol
If Youtube views were to be taken seriously, Samir & Viktor would have won Melodifestival 2016! 😀
When will more information be given about the voting system?
Its an interesting stat, but I doubt there’s ultimately any correlation between YouTube views and success, especially without televote.
Besides, I think Sarmi1995 hit the nail on the head. Macedonians are probably going there to listen because you can’t hear the damn song anywhere else thanks to their copyright snit-snit.
Ordinarily I would take YouTube views into account but since there is no televote it is meaningless in jesc
I thought Netherlands had 260.000 or at least I saw that in their official channel. When you did this rank with Eurovision, you counted the video with most views fron any channel (like Vevo). Loved this BTW thanks
UMK17 PARTICIPANTS WILL BE REVEALED IN FOUR WEEKS! You can see a time calculator in yle umk website. Omg I’m gettkng so excited!!
Views can be for a bad reason aswel as a gods reason so I most of the time I wouldn’t judge an act untill you watch it live.
Same situation like with Lena last year. Both of them participated in talent show, very popular in ex-Yu countries. Many views came from Martija’s fan
Just wait till Malta reveals their song. They will show to be true Junior Eurovision powerhouses for yet another year.
I personally think YouTube views should not be considered to be a prediction for the outcome of the contest, they usually don’t mean much. I like Macedonia’s song but I think they have no victory chances. I think the biggest contenders are Russia, Poland and Italy. I would LOVE Albania to win but it’s not gonna happen. So I hope it’s Russia, I love their song too. <3<3<3
Cyprus is the only country with a song i would normally listen.
Others are so called “Only-Eurovision-songs”
Those views mean absolutely nothing. By this logic, Italy would win the Eurovision every year because the Italian videos always have the most views. If it’s true that talent always wins, then Poland or Italy will win.
She have the best song!!
YouTube predicted a win for Francesca based on views, okay but most views are because she’s an establish singer in Italy and her sing was immensely popular at San Remo so it’s probably 98% views from Italians. I’m studying in Italy niente and I still hear Nessun grado di separazione in the supermarket playing. As for most of the other songs the singer is. It well known in their home country to clock up views. I haven’t heard the junior songs as I’ve lost interest this year but it could well be and indication she could do well, but if… Read more »
If she can participate at least, with all of the Macedonian problems. Martija is my favourite though.
The Dutch song does have +260.000 views on their own channel though. (But I know you only count the official JESC channels views).