A lot goes into a Eurovision win — a strong song, a solid performer, effective staging and occasionally political winds that blow voters in a particular direction. But for the superstitious among you, a win may be down partially to fate and signalled by omens, symbols and curious patterns. Whether stemming from hope, silliness or an irrational belief in the weird and wonderful, soothsayers often say they can predict the next Eurovision winner through signs hidden in the past.
Let’s have an example. Greece‘s football team took the Euro 2004 title, winning 1-0 over Portugal. Fast forward one year to the final of Eurovision 2005 and Greece were the winners again. So, with that fresh in everyone’s minds, fans, including wiwiblogger Angus, began to speculate that Portugal, the winners of Euro 2016, would win Eurovision 2017. Most people laughed. Salvador did too…though he laughed straight to victory.
So, in a cheeky nod to fortune telling and the reading of tea leaves, we present you with three scenarios that would once again give life to superstition at Eurovision.
Of course there are plenty of counter examples to the below. This isn’t a forecast, merely a fun look at what could be. Don’t take it too seriously…
The comeback winner
Lately rumours have swirled that the EBU has been in talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina to return to Eurovision following their absence in 2017. Their broadcaster faces a myriad of problems and hurdles — financial, organisational and political — so a Eurovision return is highly unlikely. But if they did manage to stage a comeback, they have the potential to create a special kind of three-peat.
As you’ll remember, Ukraine took a one-year break because of financial problems in 2015. They won the contest upon their return. In 2016 Portugal sat out of the contest so that it could re-group and figure out how to avoid another elimination. They returned in 2017 and won it all. Could the same thing happen to Bosnia and Herzegovina if they return to Lisbon?
Naturally the same could be said for Russia, which also withdrew in 2017. But we’re saving Russia for the next point…
Second time lucky?
Yes, Russia could definitely have returners’ luck on its side. But there is another facet to their potential win. In 2018 Russia will celebrate the ten-year anniversary of its only Eurovision win — secured by pop star Dima Bilan in 2008. Dima had competed at Eurovision just two years earlier, in 2006, placing second.
Anticipation is building about Russia’s return in 2018. Following the ban of their 2017 contestant, they’ll no doubt want to come back with a bang. And they may do that with Sergey Lazarev who competed at Eurovision just two years earlier, placing third.
Sergey fuelled speculation recently when he told wiwibloggs that he hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll compete again in 2018. That suggests he’s at least thought about it. Could Sergey — like his friend Dima — return two years after his debut at Eurovision and win it all?
The last country following a striking pattern is Sweden. Back in 2011 Eric Saade came third at Eurovision and one year later Loreen won. Two years later Sanna Nielsen came third at Eurovision and one year later Mans Zelmerlow won.
Most recently — at the 2017 contest in Kyiv — Robin Bengtsson came fifth. But if we revert to the old voting system used for Eric and Sanna, then Robin actually came third. History suggests Sweden’s next win should take place at Eurovision 2018 in Lisbon.
So what do you think? Which scenario do you think is most likely to actually happen? Are there any other striking patterns Eurovision fans should look out for?