eurovision 2018 odds madame monsieur jessica mauboy

In just under a week’s time, the first rehearsals of Eurovision 2018 will have got underway. We’re now at the close of the preview party season and we’ve seen nearly every single act perform live. The bookmakers have their best info to hand, so who’s looking good in the odds now?

The top three remain the same as our last update, with Israel’s Netta remaining the market favourite with “Toy”. Best odds on a fourth Israeli victory are now 19/10 at Marathon Bet.

Bulgaria’s Equinox are still second, with Czech Republic’s Mikolas Josef in third. Equinox have fallen back slightly from Netta after their surge last week. Their best odds are 7/1 at a number of sites, whilst Mikolas is 8/1 at Coral and Unibet.

There are a number of sites though that have the two acts at the same odds. It’s looking like a close fight for that second spot!

The big mover in the top five is Australia’s Jessica Mauboy. As she continues to get good reviews from her preview party performances of “We Got Love”, her odds continue to shorten. On the 14th, Bet365 had Jess at 10/1: now, she’s at 8/1.

You can still get 10/1 on an Australian victory at Unibet and 888 — so get hopping over to them if you think Jess has got what it takes for victory.

Estonia’s Elina Nechayeva moves down to 5th as her odds continue to drift, with uncertainty still around her staging. Sweden’s Benjamin Ingrosso, meanwhile, has dropped from 6th to 8th, albeit only due to Bet Stars placing him as far out as 25/1.

The current movers, however, are France’s Madame Monsieur. Their odds have shortened considerably with some bookies: on the 14th April, bet365 had them as high as 22/1. Now, the same company has them at 12/1.

Best odds on a French win are still 25/1 (again with Bet Stars), but they could very well soon be challenging Norway and Estonia ahead. The recent move is likely related to the recent story that Mercy — the child who inspired their song — has been located safe and well.

The top 10 remains rounded out by Belgium’s Sennek and Greece’s Yianna Terzi, with Spain’s Alfred and Amaia right behind.

Eurovision 2018 Odds (as of 1620 CET, 22nd April)

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With rehearsals just days away, the market could change drastically — and quickly. Keep checking back for more odds posts throughout the next few weeks as the contest gets underway!

Read more Eurovision Odds posts here

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93 Comments on "Eurovision 2018 odds: France closes the gap on Top Five as Australia becomes 4th favourite"

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Joel
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Let me add a simple comment regarding Spain’s Eurovisión 2018 odds: No way! Is in the eleventh position? It seems to me that “something rotten in the State of Denmark”

M257490
Guest

I can’t understand why Australia is so overrated …Of course it deserves to be in the final,but guys let’s be honest….it doesn’t stand out!We have seen that thousands times before…(My opinion may change after stage perfomance)

Frd123499
Guest

Netta is the best!! 12 points from Italy!!

Alan kirby
Guest

Will Israel go same way as Italy went last year that’s the question.

Danny
Guest

In my opinion the comparison between Israel and Italy is absolutely pointless. NOBODY except the Eurofans knew what the heck Franchesco is singing about and what’s up with that gorilla. The song was in freaking Italian, most of the ordinary viewers didn’t run to google translate during the show to check the translation. Netta is singing in English with a pretty simple message. And actually at least people that know English and a bit of American culture will understand that the chicken noises are mimicking a coward. THAT’S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.

Troblero
Guest

Freaking Israel that ruined this year…

Frysk
Guest

Whatever, this songcontest is one of the blandest since long. Only one song really stand out for me which might hopefully be a dark horse: Georgia!!!
I like Italy as well, Denmark allright, Greece… Czech Republic, Belgium
But Israel although not my stile has a very strong song.

Christian
Guest

I don’t want France to win.

Fast Food Music Lover
Guest
Fast Food Music Lover

I’m happy that Mercy is moving up the odds! Hopefully Italy will close in too. I always view both songs as a pair.

CookyMonzta
Guest

France is my #2 now, with Italy my #3. Estonia is my #1.

One more evaluation to go for the entire roster.

Kostas
Guest

There’s only a victory chance for France, Bulgaria and Greece. The rest…meh.

KESC
Guest

As I said France will win. I can already imagine their victory speech and performance.

ai4pres
Guest

I agree. Might cause controversy but albeit previous winners (Jamala,Salvador,Conchita) already did that so it’s nothing new.

Alfred5
Guest

It chimes with the zeitgeist ; I recognised it as a likely winner months ago

Alfred5
Guest

Other political songs like Conchita and Jamala were underrated ; they were sat at about 20-1 a week before the final…France could win !

hh
Guest

Jamala has been on top 5 long before the rehearsal. Dude, get your facts checked.

Alfred5
Guest

Listen fool, on May 2nd 2016 Jamala was at 25-1

StudyGiss
Guest

May be also poland

Klaus
Guest

As its been a year with many potential favorites, doesn’t seem to be a regarded consensus, I’m expecting a surprise winner out of the top 20. Under than the 20 position I don’t see any realistic possibility for any of them, just considering how tough is to overcome 20 potential winner songs. I give a minor chance (at least) to all of these top 20 songs and may the best performance win.

LEO ESC AUT
Guest
Final results of the INFE Poll 2018 – All the results are here: Let’s have a look at the final scoreboard of the INFE Poll 2018! 1. Israel: 199 points 2. Bulgaria: 119 points 3. France: 118 points 4. Greece: 93 points 5. Estonia: 90 points 6. Finland: 87 points 7. Cyprus: 87 points 8. Denmark: 74 points 9. Czech Republic: 64 points 10. Belgium: 57 points Australia: 41 points Belarus: 36 points Germany: 33 points Austria: 29 points Azerbaijan: 26 points Italy: 24 points Ukraine: 24 points Hungary: 15 points FYR Macedonia: 13 points Poland: 13 points Spain: 13… Read more »
My2Cents
Guest

MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOUR

poe-tay-toe chips
Guest

I’m starting to feel like the win might go to France

It’s not my FAVORITE to win (most of my favorites kinda don’t have much of a chance) but I wouldn’t mind it winning

If I was the type to actually gamble and place bets, that’s probably where mine would go

Yaa
Guest

They will so not win, leave the bubble and start critical thinkiing! Read some newspapers lately?!

Frau Loch
Guest
Lord have Mercy, if France wins next year the UK will send a song about Millenials and all of the sudden a week before Eurovision Theresa May will announce that there will no longer be a Brexit? What a joke, but it is very smart PR that’s going an. It won’t be enough to win this contest. Netta in the meantime is keeping her calm, she hasn’t done much besides her two performances and is still steady at number 1. I think she will bring a great stage show to Lisbon and she doesn’t need a refugee child or Jean… Read more »
Alfred5
Guest

It’s Israel that has likely ”peaked too early” ..she now has the weight of expectations on her head (no pun intended) she’s like a balloon slowly deflating

Marios
Guest

Apparently Netta only needed all that Hollywood #metoo hypocrisy as PR…

Rimig
Guest

I don’t think Cyprus is THAT overrated. Fuego is not a bad song, but it is very generic pop. La la love was, indeed, sort of a hit (and, for some reason, I still enjoy watching the performance from time to time), but Ivi sung it awfully. Her voice was terrible, and that brought the whole act down a bit

Rimig
Guest

This was supposed to be a reply to an earlier comment from Jackios

Denis
Guest

Who cares? It’s not like odds are an indicator. In 2016 they predicted Russia would win by a major landslide. And Jamala was down in 8th place. And what happened?
Not to mention that same polls somehow predicted Jessica Andersson would win MF and that Samir & Viktor would get the most tele- votes.
Odds are like OGAE and other voting, just a bit of fun. Nothing to take seriously..

Dan
Guest

Given that Jess Andersson came 11th out of 12, that’s a pretty good reality check.

LawStudent
Guest

Russia came third that year. Its not exactly a bad indicator of how well you’ll do in the finals. Bad example.

Denis
Guest

No, but nor did they win by a major landslide either. And Jamala did far better than 8th.
And we all still remember Italy last year who didn’t even made it to top 5.Not to forget France 2011 who was the hot bookie favourite but ended up 12th.
So no, I won’t take it seriously. I take it with a huge grain of salt.!

mark Dowd
Guest

We’ll all know a lot more by this time next week….Bulgaria rehearse at 5.20pm Sunday next. If it’s a damp squib and a disappointment in terms of staging and spectacle then expect it go out to 10s/12s….but if there’s a really strong reaction I can see this really pushing Israel. I am not sure any of the other songs is so mired in uncertainty and expectation about the staging as this one.

Ric
Guest

I hope France will do well but in the end people watching videos on Youtube, reacting online and voting at the OGAE are just eurofans…it is gonna be hard to predict how people in general will vote in May and these votes arent necessaryly a mark of success…like Moldova last year…eurofans weren’t really considering it but then Europe ranked it third.

The Boss
Guest

Czechia is the real flop from that top 10. Israel could go down some positions. Bulgaria too.

Norway, Estonia, France and Greece underrated.

Jamala
Guest

Nope the greek song is too dramatic, nothing original and unpleasant. It will qualify because it’s Greece. :/

NickC
Guest

I think the real underrated countries by betting agencies seem to be Germany, Switzerland and FyR Macedonia. If you look at all those polls done by other websites using former ESC contestants, they are rated very highly, particularly Switzerland- which is a sign that it will be rated very highly by the juries.

Here is my bold prediction: I think Switzerland will qualify in Semi 1, and Estonia will not.

Kiwicelt
Guest

Very bold indeed, hope you are right though!

Nickfan
Guest

I think France will be in the top 10, can be in the top 5, and could be the winner…
Maybe PARIS 2019 ? ^^

NickC
Guest

Hopefully it will be Lille or Lyon or Marseille or Bordeaux, Paris hotels are way too expensive…

NickC
Guest

Oh, Lille does not have an international airport, scracth that.

Jackios
Guest

How Cyprus is overrated ? It’s 20th in the
Odds
It’s for sure a fanfavorite though like Sara

Alfred5
Guest

France is picking up steam and doing consistently well in the OGAE polls

Here’s the latest top 5 update in the OGAE Poll 2018:
1.Israel: 291 points
2.France: 214 points
3.Finland: 135 points
4.Australia: 122 points
5.Bulgaria: 113 points

I do realize that these fan club polls don’t mean much, but when in unison with betting odds, youtube views et cet they do point in the right direction

Philip Wester
Guest

France is ALWAYS rated high by tge OGAEs abd betting odds (moresl by the OGAEs) and they never deliver. I doubt they will this year. It’s just not that erertaining live for the masses.

Alfred5
Guest
The way this race is shaping up it’s very likely to be between Israel, France and Bulgaria …France is still way undervalued at the bookies For those of you who fancy a bet …BET365 has a cash out option , where you can bet on a winner,say France, and so long as the odds don’t tail out long , you can get your full bet back at any time ..I often use this option if I change my mind on a bet ..for example if I bet on France at 12-1 , just so long as the odds remain the… Read more »
Roby0888
Guest

The semis are SO uneven…
only 6 of semi 2 songs in Top 20 (and some comically overated ones such as Norway xD and in a less extent Australia (good but not top 5 material imo)… where there are 10 from semi 1…
What a waste :/

Roby0888
Guest

*lesser

your daddy
Guest

France did it, knockout, checkmate bitc_es! See you in Paris.

Jon Smith
Guest

#All the money in Israel.

#We Love Netta.

#Tel Aviv 2019.

#Respect.

Oppa
Guest

France could win for political reasons if it’s a lacklustre final night or there’s no act standing out over the rest.

Alfred5
Guest

France has a good song ,musically, even if politics were not involved

Yaa
Guest

The current political mood will flop France, see recent elections, Brexit, etc. They can bring the child on stage, as a bold move!

Door
Guest

Pretty sure they can’t as Eurovision rules should forbid anyone under the age of 16 to go on stage.

Yaa
Guest

Sneak her in the booth than, I’d suggest.

cryvision
Guest

France will win because is not about music anymore.

Rasmus
Guest

Here in Sweden for example we cant have more refugees. Its kaos. So i dont think France will win because of that. If she was in Sweden she would not sing about that anymore. But i like the song:)

Elin
Guest

I still hope Benjamin will be top 5… but it looks dark. : (

Denis
Guest

he will. Odds aren¨t exactly reliable. last year Robin B was 8th too and he did better than that. And in 2016 Russia was predicted to win by a major landslide and Jamala was 8th. The night of the final. People will be mind-blown when they see the staging

ALO
Guest

I think France is the “winner” of the pre-parties season, Madame Monsieur are now taken very seriously

Stephanie
Guest

I am of the belief that this is part of the reason why France has moved up the odds at a fast pace lately – their consistency on the pre-party circuit has helped greatly (despite the fact that SuRie stepped in for Émilie in Amsterdam) and they’ve been getting some of the biggest crowd receptions of any act. If they can carry that momentum into rehearsals next week and really bring it on the big stage, they’re a definite contender for victory or a top 5

Roy Moreno
Guest

I think France will struggle entering the top 10

Purple Mask
Guest

I’m glad that Jessica Mauboy has got some support, that’s good to see.
The undervalued ones at the moment would seem to be Hungary and Albania. Not sure why.

R
Guest

Hungary and Albania are undervalued because they are Metal and Rock songs, which aren’t the genres that are mostly associated with Eurovision. (Even though these are the ones in my top 2 😛 )

Jo
Guest

Some of these “favourites” will flop during the rehearsals, just like it’s happened every year. Then, there’s an open door for countries like Albania and Hungary to shine. Even Georgia might surprise in the end.

NickC
Guest

And here is an update on my algorithm. This is lightly different than usual one, bets 50%, you tube 30%, streams 10%. The other 10 percent comes from wiwijury, Eurojury, OGAE and INFE polls.

1 Israel 93.72
2 France 91.51 (+1)
3 Bulgaria 91.40 (-1)
4 Australia 90.47
5 Belgium 84.77
6 Sweden 81.86
7 Austria 78.26
8 Czech Rep 75.93
9 Estonia 75.58
10 Belarus 71.63
11 Norway 70.35
12 Spain 69.19
13 Finland 68.72
14 Ukraine 64.88
15 Cyprus 62.91
16 Germany 57.79 (+4)
17 Italy 57.56 (-1)
18 The Netherlands 57.56 (-1)
19 Greece 56.40 (-1)
20 Azerbaijan 56.05 (-1)
21 Portugal 55.12
22 Denmark 51.51 (+1)
23 FYR Macedonia 49.53 (-1)
24 Latvia 48.49
25 Switzerland 44.42 (+3)
26 Lithuania 44.19 (-1)
27 UK 43.84 (+1)
28 Ireland 43.49 (-2)
29 Albania 36.74 (+1)
30 Moldova 36.40 (-1)
31 Poland 36.05
32 Armenia 31.05 (+1)
33 Russia 30.23 (-1)
34 Hungary 26.98
35 Malta 25.00
36 San Marino 24.53
37 Croatia 22.91 (+2)
38 Georgia 22.33
39 Serbia 21.98 (-4)
40 Romania 18.49
41 Iceland 12.33
42 Slovenia 10.81
43 Montenegro 8.60

Purple Mask
Guest

Can you be less rude than that? Please?

Jo
Guest

That’s very interesting actually.

cryvision
Guest

This is so silly.

Alfred5
Guest

It’s not necessarily going to give us the winner but it’s telling us who are likely to win ..Israel..France..Bulgaria and Australia
I agree

NickC
Guest

Thanks. But also, it is very likely that Israel, Bulgaria, Belgium, Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Belarus, Finland and Cyprus will qualify from Semi 1. The 10th place, however, seems to be up for grabs, with Greece, Azerbaijan, FyR Macedonia, Switzerland, Lithuania and Ireland all vying for that last spot.

Semi 2 has a similar pattern: Australia, Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Denmark and Latvia will easily qualify in my opinion. Then, it is a bloodbath between Poland, Moldova, Russia, Hungary and Malta

Alfred5
Guest

Greece could surprise us all ; it ‘ll definitely qualify

Vlad
Guest

About Greece, anything is sure. It’s depends about staging, live vocal and bad performances from bookers favorites. I think the first semi-final’s dark horse is Lithuania.

Mel
Guest

Would this algorithm have predicted the winners of the past 3-5 years?

NickC
Guest

Honest answer: Last week- yes. Before that- no. I have been doing it since 2016, It predicted Russia in 2016 , with Ukraine second and Australia third. It predicted Italy until the last week in 2017 , Portugal took over few days before the final. But again, the one that came nowhere was Moldova, it was 15th in my algorithm. So, I am not claiming that it is 100% accurate, but it certainly gives clues.

Yaa
Guest

Belarus not qualifying is just a sick joke! How biased can they be?! And also Greece?! C’mon! Just no way! They have huge support!

Jackios
Guest
I saw some rehearsals from Bulgaria and Cyprus cause Sachajeanbaptiste is friend of mine ..I am sure Cyprus will go up that girl is a great performer and dance so fierce and can sing ..lol at the doubters I am not about results cause Cyprus is a small country and due to lack of neighbours that are always underrared and have never been in top15 the last 15 years .. But I am sure this girl is going to impress a lot Bulgaria also had a great staging but I expected more maybe because of the hype Australia just ok… Read more »
Kjartan
Guest

Please, Portugal has only 1 neighbourh and have won so it doesn’t matter anymore

Jackios
Guest

Don’t get me wrong i think Portugal won because it’s a nice song but also the health problems of Salvador was really well promoted and helped it to stand out it’s not the same
Even my mum who is not a fan of eurovision when she watched the final said…”Is this the Portugal guy who has a problem with his heart ? So sweet” etc..you know what i mean

Jackios
Guest

Cyprus is always underrated
See “Ia la love” 2012 it was a hit in many countries after the performance but it got only the 16th place in the final
If this entry was for a big country it would definately be a top10 at least

Leni
Guest

I have to say that I saw YouTube video of Americans reacting to the top five 2017 in the final, and scored the performances, and Salvador was the highest score. They knew nothing about him, so I guess he disserves more credit.

hh
Guest

More like the PR team from Cyprus. La La Love sucked live!

Jo
Guest

Norway is too high. Also, Latvia is still holding that ~28th since the beginning. I think she won’t even qualify, or barely will make it.

Yellowman96
Guest

She’s in Semifinal 2 and judging by the bookies she will qualify as most of the songs in the Top 15 are predominantly from semifinal 1

Mark
Guest

All this talk of odds is just an advertisement for the betting agencies.

Michal
Guest

I hope Mikolas won’t fall much down next week. I am from the Czech Republic and I think he is a bit overrated, 3rd place would be a great dream but it is impossible. TOP 10 will be amazing, but in odds I wish him TOP 5, but not TOP 3.

Rasmus
Guest

Is he good live? im a little worried that Czech Republic will not qualify. I think his pre party performances was not that great.

Esgalnor
Guest

He can sing, that’s the important sing. Positive is that the song isn’t much challenging vocally, so he just needs strong nerves.

Cuck
Guest

At this point it is all about the stagings, starting on may 4th. Madrid party won’t do any difference either.

Benjamin Ingrosso
Guest

Come on, vote for underrated Finland in the semifinal!

mae
Guest

did you… really just say that FINLAND is underrated? you need a reality check tbh

Benjamin Ingrosso
Guest

How can it be overrated if it the odds say that she will not qualify? Saara Aalto is the most famous and proffesional singer in the whole ESC. But she is underrated. CZECH and CYPRUS is so OVERRATED!.
Thank you, im not angry.

Jo
Guest

Judging by international fame. Alekseev and Jessica Mauboy are probably the most famous acts of this year. Being known in the UK doesn’t make her a superstar.

Vlad
Guest

Alekseev must improves is live vocals. Jessica may, if the last years trend occurs, have a lot of jury vote, but won’t be a hard televote favorite. But as she will sing during the second semi-final (considered as the weakest one) and had delivered good performances during the pre-parties, it won’t be very difficult for her to go throught the Grand Final.