Gjon’s Tears — cry no more! According to the Smarkets prediction market, Switzerland currently has a 98% chance of qualifying from Semi-Final 2 of Eurovision 2021.
Close behind are Bulgaria’s VICTORIA (89%), Iceland’s Daði Freyr & Gagnamagnið (87%), Finland’s Blind Channel and Greece’s Stefania (both at 83%), and San Marino’s Senhit (81%). Rounding out the Top 10 most likely to qualify are Moldova’s Natalia Gordienko (78%), Serbia’s Hurricane (66%), Albania’s Anxhela Peristeri (51%) and Austria’s Vincent Bueno (47%).
That means, according to their prediction market, the follow countries are out: Portugal and Czech Republic (39%), Denmark (37%), Estonia (35%), Latvia (33%), Poland (29%) and Georgia. Tornike Kipiani is last in the market. Georgia does not have a percentage listed, meaning that no one has placed a bet on it to qualify.
Who will qualify from Semi-Final 2 of Eurovision 2021?
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Speaking to Wiwibloggs in March, Gjon’s Tears said that he was not happy with his live-on-tape recording.
“I did it in February,” he said. “I need to be at Rotterdam, because from February to May you still have time to work. I’m feeling like I couldn’t give everything to that live-on-tape, so I really hope there will be no problem to be there and that I will re-do my live. I really want to because I’m not so proud of that.”
It’s not that it was bad, but more that Gjon is a perfectionist who wanted to elevate. And while he didn’t give away too much information, it’s clear he didn’t have the same technical toys at his disposal.
“It’s not the final performance. The light wasn’t the same. There are other elements that weren’t the same, but we had to do it like this.”
What do you make of the Smarkets prediction for the Semi-Final 2 qualifiers? Do you agree with the 10 qualifiers above? Let us know in the comments box down below!
There is no emotion left in this world. Not feeling Austria or Portugal means you have no musical soul. Sure San Marino, Czech Republic, Denmark are good but very samey
it’s my favorite overall actually, but I don’t see that happening. The top place will for sure be Switzerland. I see San Marino more around 4th-7th
Great top 3 !
The qualifiers, which both ESC United, and Alesia Michelle predicted, are as following:
ALBANIA
BULGARIA
CZECH REPUBLIC
FINLAND
GREECE
ICELAND
MOLDOVA
SAN MARINO
SERBIA
SWITZERLAND
Now, these are the same ten I would put my money on. Still, I would say that Serbia and Albania are potentially under question, and then, I can see DENMARK making it instead.
These are the picks I would make too. Czech Republic is definitely in. My only objection would be Estonia, I know that almost nobody likes it but I think there are chances for a shock Q. However I do not know who would not qualify in order for Estonia to be in semi’s top 10, I guess it would be on the expense of Albania or Serbia. Iceland could be a shock NQ for me too.
But in general I think that this is the 10 countries that will qualify from semi 2
Right.
My prediction
Q
Denmark (best by far)
Iceland (2nd best)
Chez Rep. (3rd best)
…………….
San Marino
Moldova
Greece
Swiss
Finland
Bulgaria
Fight for 1 place among Albania, Serbia and Estonia.
Hronia polla !
Happy Orthodox Easter to you too!
My personal favourites of this semi final
7.Austria
8.Georgia
9.Iceland
Actually, there is quite a lot of doubt. This is just Eurofans in their Benny Cristo bubble.
Well I am not so sure about Finland, Albania, Serbia and Austria. On the other hand I am seeing Estonia qualifying and I am not so sure about Portugal and Denmark not qualifying.
estonia over finland? you are delusional
Absolutely – this will never happen…
Finland ist the second most likely qualifier after Switzerland. It´s stands out from the rest.
My prediction in random order :
San Marino
Czech Republic
Greece
Austria
Moldova
Iceland
Serbia
Bulgaria
Finland
Switzerland
From the borderliners I think Czech Republic, Portugal, Bulgaria, Albania and Serbia will qualify.
Sure non-qualifyers are: Georgia, Austria, Poland, Latvia, Estonia
Sure qualifyers are: Switzerland, Iceland, Finland, Greece, San Marino
Borderliners: Bulgaria, Moldova, Serbia, Albania, Denmark, Portugal, Czech Republic
Austria is pure jury bait … that will qualify
I realy wanna see Iceland to winn ESC. Buut not whit this song. They have so mutch better song
My prediction:
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Iceland
Finland
Denmark
Greece
Moldova
Serbia
Poland
Czech Republic
I think San Marino is going to be a surprise for many people but I really doubt they are going to make it to the final. They get probably Jury votes but the Televote will make it impossible to qualify.
If they qualified with ‘Say Na Na Na’ they’ll qualify this year as well
Definite qualifiers: Switzerland, Iceland, Bulgaria, Greece, Finland, Czech Republic, San Marino, Moldova(don’t know why it’s penned as a NQ) Borderline: Albania, Denmark, Austria, Serbia, Estonia Probably not qualifying: Portugal, Georgia, Poland, Latvia Right now I’d say that the last 2 qualifiers would be Albania and Denmark. I know Serbia is considered a safe Q but honestly I don’t see who will vote for this in the semi. It will have a decent televote (lower top 10) but I don’t see it faring well with juries. Albania has made it with similar songs and they will probably have decent staging so… Read more »
tornike is so underrated wtfff… it makes me so sad because he is a sexy georgian man with a voice like red wine i just want to drink a few glasses of him
It will definitely be Czech Republic over Austria.
maybe both will qualify?
Czech Republic out?! already a mistake
Benny is one to watch for me, great performer and it’s actually quite an enjoyable song. Would bet my house Austria would be a non qualifier.
Betting, Czechia’s Benny Cristo will do it and will B dark horse in final. My calls from Austria for Benny.
I choose for two extremes:Finland (of course) and Portugal. I really like the song from Portugal. And Denmark? They just go to the final… I think.
Calling it now: Bulgaria is a shock NQ.
Yes I was thinking this yesterday, listening to the eurovision playlist, it really has no stand out appeal and I think people want celebratory songs this year, not down in the dumps kind of vibes Victoria gives me.
keep dreaming
it’s a treasure of a song that has mass appeal and was selected by PROFESSIONALS!!! the more likely NQ is azerbaijan i think they are gonna overdo it with the staging and flop
Bu?garia is just bad let’s say it.
Azerbaijan is not on this semi…
I have my doubts as well about Bulgaria, but I don’t think it’s an NQ. I believe that the jury votes alone will be enough for qualification. However, I don’t think that it will end up as high as it is predicted right now.
It should be Czech Republic instead of Austria. Then I would also love Portugal to qualify, I think that song is really underrated.
It will be! There’s no way Czech Republic is not qualifying. As for Portugal, a decent song, but a forgettable one, I don’t think that it has chances
With both Iceland and Finland voting, and with a good place in the running order, don’t underestimate Denmark’s chance of qualifying.
A lot of people are predicting Denmark to qualify but they would need far more countries to do so. Even if they top Iceland’s and Finland’s votes (both jury + televoting) they would get 48 points. Statistically, a country needs for qualification 100+ points (with the current system). So Iceland and Finland alone cannot save them.
also, love them but hurricane kinda have no chance to me? serbia has been qualifying purely thanks to neighbor voting since 2016, and all their besties are in the other semi… and this song doesn’t really have any international appeal that’ll convince anyone beyond serbian immigrants in switzerland and austria to vote for them. they have all the odds against them
In 2019 was 7th with the public and 5 with the juries, but you’re right with 2015, 2016 and 2018… This year they are lucky, because in SF1 they would be sure NQ in my opinion without voting neigjbours.
I think they will still qualify in 9th or 10th thanks to a decent televote and the juries will not punish them so hard like they will do with Latvia, Poland or Estonia
But if that was the case wouldn’t they finish in the bottom 6 in every final?
Well, *insert cringe dated meme by that Israeli host in 2019*
these clowns really think austria will qualify over benny cristo… i don’t see a scenario where he doesn’t make it to the final really. locals will eat him up
Austria can qualify only with huge jury support, I can’t see it getting many televotes. I really hope that we will see Benny in the final
If Anja made it in 2021, even Vincent can this year.
Czechia, Portugal, Findland, Albania Denmark Island Poland
I simply don’t get why the bookies place Czechia so low. The song is SO GUD
My prediction:
Almost sure qualifiers:
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Iceland
Finland
San Marino
Greece
Likely to qualify:
Moldova
Serbia
Borderline:
Austria
Albania
Denmark
Czech Republic
Poland
Unlikely to qualify:
Portugal
Estonia
Latvia
Georgia
I’d switch Latvia and Poland. I think Samanta will deliver really strong live performance
What I will like:
1. Georgia
2. Denmark
3. Finland
4. Poland
5. Switzerland
6. San Marino
7. Greece
8. Austria
9. Estonia
10. Bulgaria
11. Iceland
12. Moldova
13. Czechia
14. Serbia
15. Latvia
16. Albania
17. Portugal
What I think will happen:
1. Switzerland
2. San Marino
3. Finland
4. Bulgaria
5. Iceland
6. Greece
7. Poland
8. Denmark
9. Albania
10. Georgia
11. Czechia
12. Moldova
13. Austria
14. Serbia
15. Latvia
16. Estonia
17. Portugal
Live performances will make it or brake it for some of the semi 2 acts – I think those are Serbia, Moldova, Czechia, Albania, San Marino and Latvia. I feel like Czechia is most likely to have a great performance out of these, Moldova will nail the staging but the vocals and charisma are in question, Albania and Latvia will nail the vocals, but not sure if the songs will be so liked. Denmark has a potential to do great with televote, and I think the juries will support Austria, and maybe even Portugal and Georgia, so it is really… Read more »
I totally agree with all of this. Great points 🙂
So happy to finally read that Albania might qualify. It’s my favorite entry this year!
It´s in my personal Top 10, currently in 8th place.
i really don’t see why it wouldn’t qualify lol karma stands out A LOT and in every good way
It’s my third place, actually didn’t expect it to stay there but I’m glad it did. And the revamp… Shook!
Manage your expectations and don’t generate (even more) hype because the reception might nit be what you think it will be.
I’m getting worried Greece is going to be disappointing because it’s being overhyped. Remember 2019 staging was a bit clunky.
After 2 evaluations, my scorecard looks like this:
9.59 Switzerland
9.56 Iceland
9.53 Bulgaria
9.42 San Marino
9.38 Serbia
9.36 Georgia [This one reminds me of a few late-1960s pop/rock ballads]
9.36 Finland
9.33 Portugal
9.31 Estonia
9.31 Poland
9.30 Austria
9.30 Czech Republic
9.26 Denmark
9.25 Greece
9.22 Moldova
9.21 Albania
9.06 Latvia
My top 5 in this semi were easy to judge; the rest, very hard. I start again today, for my 3rd and final evaluation. Where my 1st and 2nd evaluations take 4 or 5 days each, the last one will take me 10 days.
You’re really generous with your scores. Nice!
My scores for each of the 10 criteria that I use with each entry generally fall into the 8s or 9s, but in the end the effect is the same. If I were confronted by what I thought was a horrendous trainwreck or something lame without a hint of creativity, you’d see a score in the mid-8.xx range.
My qualifiers are: Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Iceland, Poland, San Marino, Serbia, and Switzerland. Not a huge fan of Moldova’s song but it looks like it’ll go through. Rafal and Fyr & Flamme have actually grown on me, and Benny’s song is just so fun!
I would be happy with this. Moldova is very overrated. Idk it might flop live
Austria? nah
For me: yea
Why not ? One of them could be saved by the juries. Either Portugal or Austria but I think there are more chances for Vincent to qualifiy-
100% agree, there are not jury friendly songs in this semi final, only Switzerland, Bulgaria, Iceland, Austria and Portugal
I think these countries are happy they’re in semi 2, there’s a lot of place left open in my opinion.
The first 5-6 that are general faves from this semi on the list are sure qualifiers and the rest could really be anyone with a good performance in my opinion.
yeah yeah agree 100%
Portugal above Poland and Czech Republic? Curious about Greece. Despite the rumours of a never-seen-before staging, the odds are not giving them a top 3 place in the semifinal. Bulgaria is having a great staging, a very emotional one and Victoria can sing live. I think Bulgaria (along with Romania) will be the dark horses, entries that fans didn;t pay much attention to do well but their staging will boost the songs and the meanings they want to convey. I think Czech Republic and Poland could be surprise qualifiers. Actually, i think Poland can get a nice boost from the… Read more »
Tbh I also hope Czechia qualifies, along with Denmark. Austria is a NQ for me. And I wouldn’t question Albania, this semi is not a bloodbath and I think they will have no problem qualifying
a lot of countries won’t be able to afford what Greece will do, probably. for some countries the budget is very limited
All that hype for Bulgaria will blow up more than the Gabbani bubble
Gabbani was disappointing in the live performance and that ape was ridiculous.
Bulgaria has a different song, a more emotional and will be staged by a professional director unlike Gabbani’s performance.
In short, comparison is really wrong.
I hope so! I can see Czechia qualifying instead of Austria.
it’s crazy how overrated finland and iceland are. I’d much rather see estonia poland georgia or even denmark over them. iceland has no good lasting hook in its song and is so monotone and anticlimactic. finland is just not a good song, nothing to do with genre as i like italy but finland is just terrible. denmark might qualify because of its running order. poland is underrated. and i wouldn’t be surprised at all if georgia qualify to the final.
you’d rather have Georgia and Estonia over Finland and Iceland?? LMAO. You must be trolling.
Iceland’s entry is not as strong as 2020 and 2019 but still it’s a nice catchy song.
Finland is very good but i think it will not do well in the grand final. It will stand out in the semifinal but doing so in the final will be very difficult. Fans of this genre will be split between Finland and Italy.
These odds seem to be extremely on point, except Czech Republic should be at least in the borderline zone and same for Moldova (Natalia realky proved to be a bad vocalist with both Prison and Sugar). I’d say there are 6 sure qualifiers Switzerland Iceland Finland Greece Bulgaria San Marino Also, Serbia should qualify even if juries will dislike it. I only see Latvia and Georgia as sure qualifiera, maybe Poland… all the others have giod chances to qualify. Denmark has televoting, Austria has jureis, Portugal has juries + France and Switzerland voting here, Moldova will have a great stage,… Read more »
dont you dare speak that way about natalia gordienko
Kirkorov’s team will make sure Natalia has pre-recorded vocals or just very strong vocalists with her. Besides, her staging is supposed to be very good. Unfortunately, Moldova is qualifying (it;s Kirkorov entry). What makes you think that Denmark will do better in televoting than Poland? Both songs have 80s vibe but the Polish entry is more global and the staging will be more interesting than the Danish one based on what we’ve seen so far. In addition, Poland has a massive diaspora so if they like RAFAL, they will support him no matter what. Juries can’t vote for all the… Read more »
Kirkorov didn’t make some other entries qualify in the past, so it may happen again, who knows? Natalia is still borderline for me, but definitely not a sure qualifier. Poland has a diaspora, ok, but where? Iceland maybe, yes. France? Spain? Stop. Diaspora is not the reason why Poland gets good score with the public (remember 2017 grand final). I think Poland may even be a borderline qualifier with the televoting, but juries will put it really low (as they always do with Poland except in 2017 with a more jury friendly song and in 2019). Poland this year really… Read more »
Subjective prediction based on what I see: 1. Switzerland ??(A favourite to win) 2. San Marino ?? (Bop and a fabulous staging) 3. Greece ?? (Mainly for the performance) 4. Finland ?? (They’ll do better in the final) 5. Bulgaria ?? (Probable low televote) 6. Iceland ?? (Decent jury AND televote) 7. Serbia ?? (Absolutely no jury support) 8. Moldova ?? (Hm, I think it’ll stand out) 9. Czech Republic ?? (He’ll 99% qualify) 10. Denmark ?? (Shock qualifier) 11. Albania ?? (Sorry, the same formula again) 12. Portugal ?? (Surprising placement) 13. Estonia ?? (No televote) 14. Latvia ??… Read more »
Ok, but Austria will get at least a place in the ranking 🙂
Oh my Lord, you’re right
Thanks for noticing!
Swap Denmark with Poland and we have a very good prediction!
Bulgaria will not have low televote. You guys are thinking very subjectively, try to think of all the factors here. Victoria has a big team behind her, she’s good live and the song is about emotions and is very universal. It will be the dark horse.
San Marino will not go as high as many fans believe but ofc it will qualify. I can’t see it doing well with juries (except those that traditionally vote for San Marino *winks*)
You’re not the only one regarding Tornike. His song from last year would have qualified. A lot of entries have gone retro this year; his song reminds me of a few late-1960s ballads. He’ll have to stage it just right, to steal a spot, the way Giannis Karagiannis (Cyprus 2015) and Ryan O’Shaugnessy (Ireland 2018) did.
The difference with Karayiannis and O’ Shaughnessy is that, as much as I love the song, the lyrics just… can’t make you vote for him, something that Ireland and Cyprus did in their respective years…
So, basically I could not edit my comment so, instead, I have to mention Austria here.
I think the bookies’ ranking reflects more on the jury vote, so he’s a Q for the juries, but I think Vincent will have a REALLY hard time with the televoters. I would say something like Pænda in 2019! Overall, he will probably place 14th…
Austria always has troubles with televote. Question is whether the juries love it or LOVE it (it’s a given they don’t it it’s screwed)
I do really think Denmark will easily qualify. And Portugal is a potential dark horse. This semi is gonna bring many surprises. I can see a scenario in which 2 or even 3 of the “favourites” will stay in the semi…
Greece ? Iceland ?
I have predicted Greece for qualifiying….
This is my prediction in alphabetical order
The only songs I really like in Semi 2 are San Marino, Bulgaria and Switzerland. I mean Iceland is good too but as long as the other 3 qualify for me, I don’t really mind what happens, though I’d say the betting odds are probably accurate enough with this prediction.
Semi 2 is so much easier to predict I feel.
Sure Q Switzerland, San Marino, Bulgaria, Finland
Likely Q Greece, Iceland
Maybe Q Austria, Denmark, Moldova, Serbia
Probably NQ Czech Republic, Latvia, Portugal
Sure NQ Estonia, Georgia, Poland
Denmark will qualify for sure. And it will end up high in the final. I also see Portugal as a qualifier.
I really do not think that Serbia will advance.
you haven;t watched eurovision../…
I bet that Denmark will be a shockqualifier and I would like it…
In the grand final Denmark will be in top10 of televoting
Quite interesting point. I have a completely different point of view, however maybe I got something really wrong and now I really want to see what’s gonna happen in Rotterdam. I want to find out who’s right about Denmark, and I am not saying that in a competitive way, I really want to see if I am the one that got Denmark wrong
We’ll see…I just strongly believe that Denmark will receive tele from all the countries…not only scandinavians. Especially from the target group 45-55…who really enjoy this entry for obvious reasons.
well, I’m 55 and I wouldn´t certainly vote for it. Reminds me of a lot of crappy stuff from the 80s…
This could be true. But already qualifiying for the final is a great success for the guys.
The thing with Denmark is who’s gonna vote for them. I mean, they have Iceland and Finland, maybe Estonia and Latvia, but which other country is gonna vote for a song in Danish? If it was in English there would be a chance to pull a Poland 2016, but Denmark has done retro before (2015) in a slightly smaller semi (16 countries) with a catchier song and in English and it didn’t work. I had thought of them pulling a shock Q but U really cannot see how, given that we already have seen the song on stage in DMGP
Oh no, Denmark 2015 was bad. Totally different than this year’s one. This is a very good melody. It’s fun, it’s retro eighties, lots of energy. A good song is beyond its language. I can see it score very well in televote. Maybe they can pull of a Keiino. It has appeal to many, I think. Not only the nordic countries.
The song hits the number one spot in Denmark. It is very popular, also in the young age category. The retro vibe is totally back nowadays.
I am now really starting to wonder why I cannot connect with this song. It seems like everyone is loving it
How old R U ? If less than 45…then is difficult to find a ‘connection’.
the song is number one in Denmark because this group was already popular and people are loving the retro sound. of course it’s also in Danish!
The above have nothing to do with the Eurovision outcome though. It’s not Denmark that votes for their song.
the staging in DMGP was very bad. They have a good running order which might help but i cant imagine any eastern european countries voting for Denmark.
Poland will ‘steal’ many potential votes (similar style just more polished and global).
i think it’s a personal desire and not a prediction…
Imo Sure Qs: San Marino, Czech Republic, Greece, Moldova, Bulgaria, Finland, Switzerland Probable Qs: Iceland, Albania, Serbia Possible shock Q :Estonia Probable NQs: Austria, Poland, Latvia Sure NQs: Georgia, Portugal, Denmark Things are much clearer for me in this semi. I have to add though that San Marino is a Q for me because of Flo Rida. If we don’t get any Flo Rida at all in Rotterdam then this could be a NQ. As things stand right now though I think that it’s gonna make it, but I don’t think that it’s gonna do that well. A shock NQ… Read more »
Czech Republic and Latvia will be shock qualifiers.
Latvia won’t qualify, trust me. Czrch Republic it could actually be either ways
Czech Republic is in, Latvia is out
I agree, Latvia is out and Czech Republic has chances.
Benny, quite a possibility; Samanta, I highly doubt it. In the last decade, Latvia has qualified only twice (2015 and 2016), and Aminata and Justs brought with them quality.
Switzerland will romp to victory..
San Marino, Iceland, Finland and Bulgaria comfortable qualifiers… Then take your pick ..anything could happen (probably not Georgia Q though..)
Georgia will not qualify, that’s for sure. But I think things are far more clear than semi 1. In semi 1 there are like 8 countries fighting for the “last” tickets. Here things are already set in a way.
I think Bulgaria and Switzerland will fight for the first place of the semifinal.