After another set of rehearsals from the second semi-finalists and the automatically qualified countries, once again it’s all change in the prediction markets. Here are the biggest moves…
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
Biggest Rises
Portugal
Qualification chance: 65% (+19) / Final win chance: 0.5% (+0.1)
‘The Black Mamba’ were well received by the Eurovision press during their two rehearsals, with the warm staging for ‘Love Is On My Side’ doing a good job of helping the entry stand out in a section of other slow songs. Portugal are subsequently up to 8th place in the semi-final 2 qualification market.
Italy
Final win chance: 21% (+9)
With an energetic, ready-made performance, Italy made a big impression on the betting markets this week with their first rehearsal. With other contenders like Malta and Switzerland falling back a little in the odds, Måneskin propelled themselves to second-favourites to take home the trophy. It’s been 15 years since a rock entry last won the contest; is the Eurovision world ready for another?
Serbia
Qualification chance: 72% (+14) / Final win chance: 0.3% (+0.1)
I hate to blow my own trumpet, but I tipped ‘Loco Loco’ pre-rehearsal as a good value bet to qualify at 62%, and Serbia appear to be well on their way. Like Måneskin, Hurricane’s energetic performance appears to have won over traders, with Serbia up 14 percentage points to qualify for the grand final.
Biggest Falls
Moldova
Qualification chance: 52% (-20) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.3)
In contrast to Serbia, in my semi-final 2 preview article for Wiwibloggs, ‘Sugar’ was the entry I suggested could be a shock non-qualifier. Since then, Moldova’s qualification chances have fallen by around 20 percentage points. Unfortunately for Natalia Gordienko, her rotating stage is already done (and done better) by San Marino who open the show, potentially rendering Moldova’s staging ineffective and unmemorable.
Switzerland
Qualification chance: 95% (-1) / Final win chance: 6% (-11)
I really hate to say this because ‘Tout l’Univers’ has been among my favourites since the very beginning, and was my pick to win from day one, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that Switzerland may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with their staging, despite Gjon’s Tears giving a note-perfect performance. I don’t think ‘Tout l’Univers’ is completely out of the running as I have not seen the full performance yet and changes could still be made, but Switzerland’s chances have fallen significantly in the markets over the last week.
Poland
Qualification chance: 16% (-10) / Final win chance: 0.3% (-)
From the rehearsal segments released by the Eurovision YouTube channel, Poland’s staging looks quite small scale and still needs improvement (for example, pyrotechnics were covering Rafał’s face for a prolonged period of time). While ‘The Ride’ could have had an outside chance of qualification if Poland played into the retro 80s sound in their staging, that hasn’t happened and right now it doesn’t look like there is a viable path for Poland to qualify, with their televote support unlikely to make up for their likely bottom three finish with the jury.
Best Bet
This is the place where I was going to tip Switzerland to win the final, but following the second rehearsal I think this year’s contest is now totally up in the air and I need to go back to the drawing board. I was thinking back earlier today, and since 2008 I’ve been able to pick between one and three songs that could realistically win Eurovision, and each time the winner has been in that group. This year, I think we’re looking at a group at least twice the size. This really is the hardest contest to predict in recent memory and should make for a very exciting week. Buckle up!
Am I the only one, but I Think this year Portugal can surprise us.
I know a lot of people think that the song is boring, but in my opinion they achieved to telling us a story with their staging and create something that you cannot keep your eyes off.
And before the rehearsals I was not a fan neither .
Well done, this is how a stage works.
Lets go Portugal!!
Italy is my winner for sure. But maybe they will be robbed, again, like Il Volo was.
By the way, can Israel’s chances be harmed because of the conflict right now?
I thought about that in the morning
Quite possibly yes but I wouldn’t see her qualifying with that staging even without the tension, unfortunately…
Possibly
Musical and art should never be manipulated or abused to serve anti semitism, propaganda or political agendas.
I wish Belgium qualifies, I like that song. Can be a potential breaktrough and rank better than expected.
Me too that I hope Belgium qualifies! As I am Turkish, I am also wishing to go to their concert this November, on Zorlu PSM! I have never seen a Eurovision artist before on my life but luckily, Hooverphonic will be the first Eurovision artist that I’m seeing on my life this November I hope!
I like The Black Mamba. An experienced singer, real musicians, and a song that rocks well, without adding more. I wouldn’t be surprised if it scores points with the French televote.
My qualifiers prediction:
-Bulgaria
-Czech Republic
-Denmark
-Finland
-Greece
-Iceland
-Portugal
-San Marino
-Serbia
-Switzerland
I’ll start saying the 2nd SF is far weaker and it’s a pity some amazing 1st SF acts will get eliminated. Some qualifiers here will struggle in the 1st SF. Anyway, just for fun, I’m going to give my numbers on its country chances of qualifying: SWITZERLAND – 100% () ICELAND – 100% (+) BULGARIA – 95% (+) GREECE – 90% () FINLAND – 75% (-) SERBIA – 70% (+) SAN MARINO – 70%() PORTUGAL – 60% (++) ALBANIA – 50% (++) CZECH REPUBLIC – 50% (-) ————————— LATVIA – 50% (-) MOLDOVA – 45% (–) DENMARK – 30% (+)… Read more »
Oh, boy. I feel mad if both Moldova and Albania withdraw from Eurovision Song Contest 2022, this sadly might be the reason that COVID-19 pandemic might affected their budget and caused low budget for Albania’s and Moldova’s broadcasters 🙁
Albania’s not withdrawing. Don’t worry.
Well, I will be worried and scared if Albania withdraws! If they don’t, I feel calm, and not worried at all! I’m not sure tho…
Moldova will take again Kirkorov song if they have low budget for ESC 2022,2023…2032…
I know! At least Albania isn’t withdrawing next year made me happy! I hope Anxhela qualifies, her song was so good!
Idk about Albania or Moldova, but I read that Czech Republic might withdraw if they fail to qualify this year.
If they qualify, I’m sure they won’t. Unless there might be an article for Moldova withdrawing when they failed to qualify.
Any information about North Macedonia and Slovenia withdrawing?
Wait wait wait, just a heads-up, being eliminated in the semi does not mean you’ll follow Slovakia’s and Hungary’s footsteps
Or, either if Albania or Moldova sent too controversial songs, or breaking EBU’s rules, they could disqualify or withdraw for sense.
Moldova is taking risks lately and, being the poorest country in Europe currently, I wouldn’t count that possibility out (but I really don’t want them to withdraw, they’re one of my favourites almost every year)
I think Ireland is way too underrated. It’s an excellent song. My favourite by far, and it is something they relates to our feelings of the last year and a half. It would be nice to see Leslie win for her wife. Portugal , Switzerland, Sweden and Italy way overrated. Spain has the best singer, but that won’t win. Ireland for me all the way.
Portugal way overrated??, Spain the best singer?? Uhmmm… No
My current prediction for second semi final, in alphabetical order:
I still cannot see France or Italy winning despite the odds. I am not rushed by my preferences but I can’t find that they are the winning entries. I always trust my gut feeling when it comes to predicting the winner = my impression the first time I hear the song. This is what matters (+ staging that can lift or ruin a song). Portugal has been on my “good first impression list” and I believe it can qualify. Switzerland will do well but Top-10 nice song but too sad for Eurovision, last year’s entry would / could win the… Read more »
Switzerland “too sad for Eurovision.”.. Unlike the laugh a minute 1944 and Arcade..?? Depth is what matters..
i’m sorry, i don’t really see the hype around italy. for me, the chorus is very meh, and the ending could’ve been a lot stronger, like finland. i still really like the song, i just dont see it as a winner, sorry.
Very interesting and unexpected moves. I just miss the steep fall of Sweden… Is wiwibloggs denying that Sweden this year is a mess?…. Also, are the Sasha’s days over? What a mess with Switzerland!!!
I don’t get the hype around Portugal. Yeah, graphics are nice, but the song is much a meh
It’s probably because you’re very young. It’s undeniably a class act.
And the professional juries will reward them for this, by the way. Some young Eurovision fans only care about bouncy bops. Anything more retro, elegant or classy is deemed as “boring”, how boring is that?
Suzanne is the most annoying WiWiblogger. There is no thought behind her words- it’s just a mess.
Suzanne is a QUEEN
That’s just not true, Suzanne is very entertaining on the live streams and also quite insightful during the reviews.
She has this chill and fun auntie energy to her and I love it!
do not disrespect our queen Suzanne
Portugal and Switzerland are amazing.
I can imagine being a parent after 20 years or so speaking to my children/eurofans about the contest which was hosted during a global pandemic, the unexpected fan&bookies-favourites and the exciting voting… I’m so hyped up knowing the 1st semi is in 3 days!
Oh totally, I’ll be doing the same thing to my cats!
I’m really curious to see how well Serbia will do in the semi-final and then in the grand final, because ‘Loco loco’ grew so much on me after the rehearsals. 🙂
I liked the song from the beginning but it wasn’t one of my favorites, but from the more upbeat songs it’s the best on stage with Ukraine based on rehearsal because of their energy.
Three girls and a playback recording!
Yes seriously I don’t see why a year with half recorded vocals should be praised compared to the previous ones. And even on the live singing too much studio process on the voices losing any emotion that only live can bring Listen to Italy snipset and compare it with the San Remo live or Russia, DAY and NIGHT Why do they even remove the arena acoustics ? I even enjoy more the 1st rehearsal sound taken directly by a camera microphone !
Playback recording? They brought their backing vocalists with them, so there aren’t any pre-recorded vocals that aid their vocals! 🙂
Seriously, the funny thing with Serbia is that they always send nice (not top-tier, just nice) songs and they always finish between 13th and 19th place, I think the same will happen this year
We will see! I think that the Grand Final is already a success for such small country with a non-existing budget for the ESC.
I wouldn’t call them small, they’re the same size as Switzerland or Hungary
https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/03/24/poll-what-is-your-favourite-eurovision-2021-entry-chosen-in-a-national-final/263516/#comment-1150619
DDRaven…Let’s see who was right!
I actually feel now that Portugal will get 100 points only from the juries. Even with like 25 tele points they are safely in the final
And they will get much more than 25, since they will get like 25-30 only from Spain, Switzerland and France. I agree with you, Portugal is almost a sure Qualifier.
Yeah, Portugal usually struggles hard with the jurires and by the time they will slay in jury vote I cannot see them stay in the semi
those who bet on portugal prior to rehearsals will get a good profit next week!
i hope they qualifies but you never know with european audience, you never know what they’re going to like and what won’t
this is kind of off-topic but i wish the odds website also included categories of jury and televote winners. like, i’m more interested in who is projected to win the split votes than who will make the top 5 yk
I don’t know who could have predicted jury winners like Austria or North Macedonia 🙂
That’s true. Jury aren’t betting, so it’s impossible to add their category to the odds.
what i meant in my original comment that i wish people could bet on what songs they believe would win the juries vs win the televote. like, people make predictions that a certain entry would do well with juries but killed by televote and vice versa, so i don’t understand why it’s not a betting category that we can see.
jean baptiste should never stage a eurovision entry again. she has destroyed two favorites
She did a great job for Albania and Georgia this year. Also, do not forget Cyprus 2018.
For me her best job is Armenia 2016.
I think people forget that stage designers create a stage performance around a song with the demands and budget that they have been given.
Eleni wanted a staging that captured her full power and stamina and she got it, Iveta wanted a staging that had sensuality, mastery and power, Nina wanted a powerful and dark staging and Gjon wanted an artistic and edgy staging, so did Destiny saying that she wanted to be like Beyoncé.
You only need to win once despite the odds, remember that. Even if her team has failed quite a few times (to win the content), it is still about the one time that their entry wins. Also, streaks are only to break. Fingers crossed for Malta.
Today I found out Portugal’s staging graphics were made by design students.
Kudos to RTP and Portugal Team to promote young local talent
malta has left the chat
Just as well – the song about a dress! The girl’s statement seems to be very wobbly after all!
I guess cost has something to do with it as RTP cannot afford the Sasha’s of this world. Excellent idea and well done nevertheless