Since we last reviewed the odds to win the second semi-final at Eurovision 2012, little has changed at the top. Sweden, Serbia, Norway and Turkey have held on to the top four spots. Further down the bookies’ oddstable, however, competitors have been shuffling around like a man with ants in his pants.

Belarus has moved the most since since we checked in on March 25. Litesound (“We are the Heroes”) have jumped from 13th position all the way to seventh. (If you like them, why not vote for them in our Eurovision Death Match poll?). Joining them on their way up are Estonia’s Ott Lepland (“Kuula”) and Ukraine’s Gaitana (“Be My Guest”). Estonia’s entry—he’s pictured above—has climbed from eighth place to fifth, while Gaitana—one of Kiev’s only Afro-Ukrainian celebrities—has soared from ninth to sixth. It looks like more and more Europeans really do want to be her guest.

En route to the top, Ott and Gaitana have kicked a few of their competitors in the face. Bulgaria’s Sofi Marinova (“Love Unlimited”) drops from sixth to 12th. And Lithuania’s Donny Montell (“Love is Blind”) drops from seventh to 13th. Below you can check out the latest odds. They represent the average across nine of Britain’s leading betting agencies.

Countries that will advance to the final

1. Sweden 1.67
2. Serbia 5.5
3. Norway 11.0
4. Turkey 13.0
5. Estonia 26.0
6. Ukraine 34.0
7. Belarus 36.0
8. Bosnia and Herzegovina 41.0
9. Slovenia 51.0
10. Slovakia 67.0

Countries that will be eliminated

11. Netherlands 67.0
12. Bulgaria 81.0
13. Lithuania 101.0
14. Croatia 101.0
15. FYR Macedonia 126.0
16. Georgia 126.0
17. Portugal 201.0
18. Malta 201.0

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8 years ago


8 years ago

Thrilled about Belarus and Estonia, they’re some of my personal favorites. Voting blocs are so cruel though–I hate that Malta is ranked below FYRM and Georgia. Especially Georgia–at least Malta is trying! I’m surprised the Dutch odds are so high though, looking like a borderline qualifier. I like the song, the act is a little kooky, but it’s pretty pleasant overall. But with a big ex-Soviet bloc, practically the entire Balkan bloc and Norway and Sweden’s strong songs, how much room is there for poorly drawn and friendless countries like the Netherlands? We can only hope Joan will get some… Read more »

8 years ago


I don’t wanna live anymore.