The bookies’ top 10 favorites to win the second semi-final remain the same as when we last checked in. Norway, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Greece, and San Marino haven’t budged from the top five spots!
I can definitely see Norway in first place. Margaret Berger’s “I Feed You My Love” is extremely popular among Eurovision fans (although I can’t say I agree). Its mature, modern feel may also appeal to the juries.
Georgia is a typical Disney…err, I mean Eurovision…power ballad wonderfully sung by Nodi and Sophie. It will probably fare well with the public and juries alike a la Denmark 2010. Azerbaijan is another dynamic power ballad, although Farid needs to work on his live performance before Malmö to live up to the bookies’ expectations. San Marino deserves a top 5 finish: Valentina’s song and performance are absolutely amazing!
Greece in the top 5 to win? Uhh, no. I do believe it will qualify, but I don’t think it stands a chance at winning the semi-final. The only way that’s possible is if the Greek diaspora throughout Europe has doubled in size. Maybe a lot of Greeks have left the country after the financial crisis?
The bookies have put Armenia in 6th place. That’s laughable, and I feel sorry for anyone wasting money on the Dorians. Are they thinking Armenia is going to be the next Hard Rock Hallelujah?
Malta’s another iffy one–I’d put it down as a borderline qualifier. I really don’t have a clue how well it will do. Israel will probably make it because of the juries, so I agree with the bookies there. Romania and Finland are much more questionable. The problem with Romania is that it has a huge bunch of lovers AND haters! The haters can’t really do anything, but I think Cezar’s growing fan-base may push Romania to the final. Romania’s fate largely lies in the hands of the jury members. I strongly dislike the Finnish entry, but I can understand if it qualifies. 10th place is a good spot to put it in, I guess.
According to the betting odds, these counties will fail to qualify: Hungary, Iceland, Switzerland, Albania, Bulgaria, Latvia, and Macedonia. Hungary remains right below the qualification line in 11th place, while Macedonia is stuck in dead last–ouch! Bulgaria and Latvia have switched places since our last update, and the rest remains the same.
In my opinion, Iceland has a better chance of qualifying than Hungary does. While both are nice (albeit boring) songs, I think Iceland will fare better with the juries. Just like Malta, I’m not really sure about what Switzerland will do. I definitely agree that Albania and Latvia will fail to qualify–the public will find them annoying, and the juries will deem them weak and without substance.
As for Bulgaria, I’m not really sure. I think the bookies are underrating it, but I’m not sure if it’ll qualify myself. Elitsa and Stoyan had a very high placing in Helsinki six years ago, but people seem to think “Samo Shampioni” is weaker than “Water” was. Also, 2007 didn’t have a jury voting, so that could be a factor as well. I’d say Bulgaria can be anywhere from 7th-12th place in the semi. Elitsa and Stoyan do have a huge fan base, but will that be enough? In any case, Bulgaria doesn’t stand a chance of winning this semi.
Ah, poor Macedonia in last place. Sorry, but you guys screwed yourselves up when you replaced “Imperija” with “Pred Da Se Razdeni”. Lozano’s parts of the song are fine and well-done, but Esma’s parts ruin the whole thing. Also, if Esma performs in Malmo like she did at Eurovision in Concert, then they are doomed to fail. How drunk was she there? Her performance there was 10x worse than my local high school’s talent show.