It’s a never a complete mystery who’ll win the next Contest and with that in mind Team Wiwi has a few preliminary predictions for 2014. With region-by-region analysis we’ll point toward the key players for 2014.
Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland)
11/35 Top 5 Finishes 2006-13
It’s been a few years since Norway won the Contest and thanks to Margaret Berger’s 4th place finish, she’s put Norway in a strong position to campaign for a victory in Denmark. Though regional competition will be tough, Sweden and Denmark, Norge‘s most consistent opponents, have won too recently to really challenge for gold. The only thing counting against the Norwegians is the fact that the Melodi Grand Prix audience sent Stella Mwangi and Tooji to Eurovision…
The Former Soviet Bloc (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)
9/35 Top 5 Finishes 2006-13
This region may as well be called Ukraine and Russia because they’re the only real challengers. With 8 Top 5 appearances between them since 2006, and a victory for Russia in 2008, they’ve been a consistent threat in Contests. Despite dips in form for Russia in 2009-11 and Ukraine 2009-10 and 2012, both returned with determination in 2013 and look hell bent on wiping out any competition facing them in 2014 – even each other.
The Caucasus: (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia)
6/35 Top 5 Finishes
If you want to talk about the Caucasus, you’re talking about all-conquering Azerbaijan. Sirusho aside there hasn’t been a concerted effort from Armenia for victory in a long time. Accounting for 5/35 Top 5 appearances Azerbaijan are the true Caucasian powerhouse and only a fool would rule them out of success in 2014. But the music does die eventually: no good streak lasts forever, especially in Eurovision, and I have a hunch that Azerbaijan apathy might strike hard in Denmark next year.
Southern Europe: (Greece, Italy, Albania, Cyprus, Turkey, Israel, Malta and San Marino)
6/35 Top 5 Finishes
Turkey might have been the most successful Southern European country overall, but if you want to talk about success since 2011, all you have to know is Bella Italia. Even with a snooze-inducing song they can do well, and they even snagged themselves the runner-up spot their first year back after a long hiatus. Italy is guaranteed to do well by virtue of being…well…Italian, and 2014 might just be the year that Rome claims the title.
Eastern Europe: (Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Moldova)
3/35 Top 5 Finishes
Romania is due a success in 2014, having previously placed in the Top 5 in 2006 and 2010. If they can pull out all the stops, Bucharest might even threaten for victory – it’s been a while since we were in Eastern Europe and the Romanians offer the region’s best hope for success.
Former Yugoslav Countries: (Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, F.Y.R Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina)
4/35 Top 5 Finishes
The Former Yugoslavs are led by Bosnia & Herzegovina and Serbia. There record is almost guaranteed fixtures on the scoreboard; their Top 5 performance is erratic and with neither being in the Final this year, Former Yugoslav objectives look likely to be on qualifying rather than winning the Contest.
Western Europe: (Andorra, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Monaco, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom)
The United Kingdom’s time truly was 2009, having never reached the Top 5 since then and Germany’s ‘Satellite’ has been unceremoniously knocked out of a Top 10 orbit by Cascada’s colossal flop in Malmö in 2013. Without a German success story there really are no glimmers of hope for Western Europe in 2014, and I don’t need the WiwiBloggs Crystal Ball to rule out that scenario.
So what do you all think? Do Norway have it in the bag before Melodi Grand Prix has begun? Will Azerbaijan steamroll all competition for a crushing win? Will Western Europe shock us with a winner?
Photo: Sander Hesterman (EBU)
Angus Quinn contributed this report from the U.K. You can follow him on Twitter at @Angus_Quinn17. Then like our Facebook page to keep up-to-date with all the latest news and gossip.
I want it to go to Hungary in 2015!
I really hope that Estonia wins this time!
I would like to see Albania win! “Feel The Passion” was an amazing song and it still bewilders me the fact that it didn’t go to the final.
I would also like the contest to travel to Romania. Cezar was a “different” choice with a quite good success.
I don’t want Azerbaijan to win it as I did not like the Eurovision Song Contest in Baku.
Düsseldorf 2011 is my favourite contest so I would like to see the contest in Germany again in the not too distant future
Dutch have the potential to be even stronger in 2014, whether it be Anouk again, or maybe Sharon Doorson or Sharon den Adel (with or without Within Temptation). If Armin is the producer, he’ll have to play his cards very carefully, lest his popularity incite enough jealousy among the other representatives that they throw the Dutch under the bus. Alex made believers out of those who thought he and Hungary didn’t stand a chance. I always thought the remix and music video really sold the song. His outcome should be motivation for Hungary to send an even stronger contender. My… Read more »
Proudly present new video.. Nevena from Moje 3,Serbia
http://youtu.be/9c_nIdSA4uo
Edit to last post:
“France seems to be really trying hard these past few years. It got screwed this year by the running order. I think France has what it takes to surprise us in Dk.”
I agree, even though I did not understand their lyrics this year, I loved the song. Catchy beat, sweet little dance, nice tune.
I’ve actually placed a bet for Norway to win. Norway has such great talent; Margaret & Alexander, but my personal opinion of who I think will win as well as who I want win is the United Kingdom. It’ll be 17 years without a win for us and we’re one of the ‘near-original’ Eurovision entrants. We’ve hosted it more times than any other country* and we’ve won 5 times! But look, we’re flopping, the only two good years we’ve had in the 21st century was 2002 (I think, 3rd?) and 2009 (5th). I guess Blue were okay, too. *we’ve hosted… Read more »
It’s hard to tell really. But with my own country(Netherlands) I have high hope. Really big artists like Armin van Buuren, Sharon Doorson and Esmee Denters, have said they wanted to go. The Broadcaster maybe wants to do a show like Melodifestivalen and i believe that can bring a good song too. I think West Europe can surprise next year.
I can’t predict a winner now but I don’t believe that Azerbaijan neither Norway will make it. They both are recent winners and I dont think the EBU wants eurovision to go to the Azeris again. From Southern Europe Greece is also a powerhouse in Eurovision and not only Turkey. But I highly believe that none of them will win the contest. I might go with guessing Ukraine..
Stefan is correct – Slovakia was never a part of Yugoslavia.
I think this article is intriguing. I am inclined to agree – though, there are always one or two Western Nations in contention. France seems to be really trying hard these past few years. It got screwed this year by the running order. I think France has what it takes to surprise us in Dk.
Only 3 solid history-geographical-cultural blocks in Eurovision
– Nordic (Scandinavian+ UK, Ireland, Netherlands)
– Ex Yugoslav (Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, F.Y.R Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina) – Bulgaria, Albania are very close culturally to ex-Yu and probably Greece, Cyprus
– Former Soviet (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Moldova) + Kazakhstan if they join
The remaining countries have connections but nothing near the power of these 3 blocks.
Since when is Slovakia an exyu country?
If history tells us anything it’s that Estonia looks to win the next contest. 😉
I know we’re all eagerly waiting for Eurovision season to start up again, but is there really any point to speculating when absolutely no songs have been selected?
I’m with @Fikri – Azerbaijan will get 12 votes from every country. Also 10 votes from every country.
And then ESC will announce that they are looking in to possible vote irregularities.
azerbaijan will win next year. mark my words!!
Since 3 years ago I have a strong feeling that Bulgaria, Hungary, Iceland or Romania will win very soon, but maybe the balcans will come back next year searching a bloody revenge like in 2007,