What If…Azerbaijan had given 10 points to Russia?

An evaluation of the voting pattern in the final showed a clear advantage to playing late in the contest. That brings up the question, what would the order be if we adjust for the play order advantage.

I adjusted the combined results using the formula “final_score – (26 – draw_order) * 0.316”. This does not level the trend line of draw order vs. final score. It just reduces it to the trend line for the jury vote. The jury is probably also slightly influenced by draw order but it is safe to say that the adjustment should be at least this amount.

So what happens with this adjustment? The countries most hurt were Russia (would have been 2nd), Malta (would have been 5th), & Moldova (would have been 7th). The big winner was Italy (would have been 11th).

Is there a way to mitigate the impact of draw order? Yes! (and there’s also better ways to structure the voting.)

Country Adjusted Place Shift
 Denmark 1 1 0
 Russia 2 5 3
 Azerbaijan 3 2 -1
 Ukraine 4 3 -1
 Malta 5 8 3
 Norway 6 4 -2
 Moldova 7 11 4
 Greece 8 6 -2
 Netherlands 9 9 0
 Belgium 10 12 2
 Italy 11 7 -4
 Hungary 12 10 -2
 Romania 13 13 0
 Belarus 14 16 2
 Sweden 15 14 -1
 Armenia 16 18 2
 Estonia 17 20 3
 Lithuania 18 22 4
 Georgia 19 15 -4
 Iceland 20 17 -3
 France 21 23 2
 United Kingdom 22 19 -3
 Germany 23 21 -2
 Finland 24 24 0
 Spain 25 25 0
 Ireland 26 26 0
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Fikri
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Fikri

pfft at the rate russia is going i won’t be surprised if they win even when performing first!