Over the past month our readers have cast 1,488 votes to determine who will win Junior Eurovision 2013. At the same time the Wiwi Jury—our in-house panel of music un-professionals—has been reviewing and ranking this year’s contestants. We have combined the results and can now reveal our Junior Eurovision 2013 Prediction. Who is gonna win, y’all? (**UPDATE: SHE DID IT! CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS ON GAIA’S WIN!**)
According to our analysis, Malta’s Gaia Cauchi will be the runaway winner of tonight’s contest. She finished first among both our readers and our jury members. One of our jurors wrote that, “Whitney Houston has been re-incarnated as an 11-year-old Maltese girl,” while another said, “Move over Chiara! Malta has found a new girl with a big set of lungs.” The stars seem to be aligning. She has the only ballad in this year’s contest and she will perform next to last.
San Marino’s Michele Perniola comes second in our analysis, having placed fourth with voters and second with our jurors. Azerbaijan’s Rustam Karimov, who gave us a lovely interview yesterday, looks set to finish third this evening.
Everyone admits that Gaia has a fantastic voice, but some have suggested that her song is not kid-friendly. This is unlikely to matter. It is not often discussed, but there is a kink in the voting system that gives enormous weight to strong vocalists, regardless of what they are singing. Officials will only count the televote in countries where viewers vote for a minimum number of countries. I do not know what this number is, but for the sake of argument let’s say it’s 10. If a country’s viewers do not cast votes for 10 different countries, then the country’s point allocation is based entirely on the professional jury. Jurors, we suspect, are much more likely to vote on merit than national affilitation (let’s not discuss the adult voting scandal…none of us need the headache).
This kink has come into sharper focus as the number of competing countries at Junior Eurovision has shrunk. This might explain why Ukraine’s Anastasiya Petryk won in a landslide last year with a song that cannot be described as kid-friendly. But jurors respected her voice and the rest is history.
You can see the complete results of our combined analysis, our poll, and our jury rankings below.
Final Standings and Predictions
Poll: 1 Jury: 1
2. San Marino: Michele Perniola with “O-o-O Sole intorno a me”
Poll: 4 Jury: 2
3. Azerbaijan: Rustam Karimov with “Me and my guitar”
Poll: 7 Jury: 3
4. Russia: Dayana Kirklova with “Mechtay”
Poll: 5 Jury: 5
5. Armenia: Monica Avanesyan with “Choco-Fabric”
Poll: 2 Jury: 10
6. Belarus: Ilya Volkov with “Poy so mnoy”
Poll: 10 Jury: 4
7. FYR Macedonia: Barbara Popovic with “Ohrid i muzika”
Poll: 8 Jury: 6
8. Sweden: Eliias with “Det är dit vi ska”
Poll: 6 Jury: 8
9. The Netherlands: Mylene and Rosanne with “Double Me”
Poll: 3 Jury: 11
10. Ukraine: Sofia Tarasova with “We Are One”
Poll: 9 Jury: 7
11. Georgia: The Smile Shop with “Give Me Your Smile”
Poll: 11 Jury: 9
12. Moldova: Rafael Bobeica with “Cum sa fim”
Poll: 12 Jury: 12
1. Malta: 375 votes, 25.2%
2. Armenia: 285 votes, 19.15%
3. The Netherlands: 152 votes, 10.22%
4. San Marino: 147 votes, 9.88%
5. Russia: 109 votes, 7.33%
6. Sweden: 83 votes, 5.58%
7. Azerbaijan: 78 votes, 5.24%
8. FYR Macedonia: 77 votes, 5.17%
9. Ukraine: 68 votes, 4.57%
10. Belarus: 49 votes, 3.29%
11. Georgia: 42 votes, 2.82%
12. Moldova: 23 votes, 1.55%
1. Malta: 8.57
2. San Marino: 8.0
3. Azerbaijan: 7.57
4. Belarus: 6.79
5. Russia: 6.29
6. FYR Macedonia: 6.14 **
7. Ukraine: 6.14
8. Sweden: 6.0
9. Georgia: 5.5
10. Armenia: 4.79
11. The Netherlands: 4.57
12. Moldova: 3.64
** The tie between FYR Macedonia and Ukraine was broken based on preferential votes. Four of the seven jurors ranked FYR Macedonia higher than Ukraine.
Check out our latest Junior Eurovision reviews and rankings by clicking here. You can read all of our Junior Eurovision 2013 coverage by clicking here. You can keep up-to-date on the latest Eurovision news and gossip by following the team on Twitter @wiwibloggs and by liking our Facebook page.