While Eurovision may first and foremost be a singing competition, it’s difficult to deny that the voting sequence in the last third of the show is what provides the most entertainment. Producers take us on a whistle stop tour of Europe (and in some cases a bit further afield…), as spokespersons display horrendous fashion, gush insincerely about “the great show” and, in some cases, try and singularly fail at comedy. Before the show starts, Team Wiwi offer a quick guide to where we think points are going tonight. This is based purely on historical voting patterns, not our opinions of the songs…

The Scandinavians, Baltics and Ex-Soviets

Let’s not kid ourselves – in a Grand Final swimming in former Soviet Republics and the always solid Scandinavian bloc, there’s going to be A LOT of neighbourly voting. The strongest entries from those blocs will likely hoover up those points.

Norway’s Carl Espen and Sweden’s Sanna Nielsen will be squaring off for the 12s from Denmark, Finland and Iceland—and Norway and Sweden will likely give 12s to each other.

The former Soviet states are a little less predictable this year, owing to political cleavages between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict seems to have weakened the bloc’s identity. The strongest two songs from the bloc – Ukraine and Armenia – will each lose out on points from one of the constituent countries (Russia for Ukraine and Azerbaijan for Armenia). Fortunately for Kyiv it can also count on points from its other neighbours Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova.

That only leaves Belarus for the two to squabble over. The strong competition in the leading blocs will also make it difficult for either one to produce the winner off the back of neighbourly points alone. They need to translate across borders. Adding interest to this bloc rivalry will be the Baltic States. Since none of the three states have qualified, their votes are up for grabs and they have a history of splitting votes between the competing Scandis and ex-Soviets.

The Balkans

The Balkan pack has been slimmed down to a trim fillet of countries this year. Romania, Greece, Slovenia and lastly Grand Final debutante Montenegro are the only survivors of the Danish exchange rate and the Semi-Finals. Romania and Greece will take the lion’s share of 12s and will likely give each other their top points in absence of their voting alliance partners Moldova and Cyprus. Slovenia is, however, in real trouble. The last time they made the Grand Final they picked up a lot of points from other countries of the Former Yugoslavia, of whom only F.Y.R Macedonia remains in the Contest. If 2011 provides any indication, Ljublijana are in for a perilous evening on the scoreboard. Montenegro are an unknown entity. They’ve scored well previously from Albania and San Marino in the semi-finals so might expect a few surprise marks, but with competition like Greece and Romania from the region, they’re unlikely to light up the scoreboard. That said, Sergej did say in a press conference that he was singing for Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia—his Balkan neighbours who didn’t show up to the party….

Central and Southern Europe

Italy, Germany, Austria, Hungary, Malta, San Marino, Switzerland and Poland all have mixed track records at the Contest. Leading the pack Italy and Hungary can count on high scores from across the continent – Spain seem likely to furnish big points for Italy, having given Rome their 12 in 2011 and 2013. Hungary likewise seems almost certain to benefit from Finland’s 12, having also taken it in 2011 and 2013.

Malta shocked everyone last year by performing so well but ‘Coming Home’ lacks the charm of ‘Tomorrow’. It does, however, have a much better draw than Gianluca did. Switzerland faired appallingly the last time they qualified so hopefully Sebalter can count on doing a bit better and picking up some points from France and Italy, which have given a few points to Swiss acts in the past.

San Marino’s Valentina Monetta may be a fan favourite but she’s unlikely to do much beyond dance in her clam shell. She’s performing between the Netherlands and the UK, and without wishing to tempt fate, will likely be passed over between the two. She still has a chance of pulling in a few points, though – she did manage to qualify!

Poland are also an unknown quantity. Since they haven’t actually been at a final since 2008 it’s pretty hard to say what will happen but it’s likely the juries have killed off any chances of Polish success at the Contest. The butter-churning may get some TV-viewers going and is likely to pick up points in the spoof-act inclined United Kingdom and Ireland.

Elaiza are vocally more promising than Cascada, but ‘Is It Right’ becomes repetitive and lacks the punch of ‘Glorious’. Despite performing one place later than Cascada, Elaiza are sandwiched between Conchita and Sanna and it seems likely they’re the palate cleanser between courses. A sympathy twelve from Austria is likely the best the girls can hope for on the night.

Lastly there’s Austria – the great unknown. Conchita dazzled hardcore fans, but she also dazzled casual viewers on Thursday. If the performance won over the juries then Conchita has every chance of doing well despite the likelihood of nil points from the ex-Soviets. Germany should send twelve her way and, due to feverish coverage in the Benelux press, it seems likely she might take 12 from Brussels and Amsterdam too.

Western Europe

This is one great big unknown. Spain, United Kingdom and the Netherlands are (rather unusually) all fielding confident songs and performers in the winner-producing golden mile of 17th-26th place. France’s ‘Moustache’ is likely to suffer from its draw and the fact that, deep as the message may be, it will have been lost on jurors. The best result would be a re-run of Jessy Matador in 2010 but ‘Moustache’s is perhaps a little too lyrically complex to replicate that perfectly.

Though the UK and the Netherlands are the most highly rated of the acts from Western Europe, Spain should not be counted out. Ruth can probably count on the top score from Portugal and the UK will send big points their way – they gave Pastora 8 in 2012 and Jedward won the top mark and 10 points in 2011-12. And lest we forget: Spain’s Ruth Lorenzo is still famous in the UK because of X Factor!

Angus Quinn contributed this report from the UK. Follow him on Twitter @angus_quinn17. For more Eurovision news follow the Team on Twitter @wiwibloggs and like our Facebook page.

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Micky
Guest
Micky

Who is the naive dumbass that said there’s no bloc voting?????

Rashad
Guest
Rashad

I guess there will be an exchange of 12 points between Azerbaijan-Ukraine and Armenia-Russia. I’m curious if Azerbaijan will give any points to Russia this year as it didn’t last year.
I will probably vote for Hungary tonight.

LEAPerce
Guest
LEAPerce

Although, if you want to add some extra fun to your viewing experience, you have to down a beer (or alcohol of your choice) every time a country gives 12 to Russia, and then the crowd boo. Haaa!

Also, you have to drink whenever the commentator for your country talks about your countries artist. I.e. If the bbc talk about Molly. If svt talk about Sanna…if DR talk about basim etc etc etc.

LEAPerce
Guest
LEAPerce

I think Molly will get more 12s than is being suggested? Anyway, aren’t we supposed to discourage bloc voting rather than write articles like this?!?! Or is this a metaphorical eye-roll at how predictable it is?

Those of you voting for your neighbour, if you know another song was better, vote for that one, don’t just vote for a neighbour cos you think you should?!

Michal
Guest
Michal

Don’t forget Elaiza is Polish, so Germany will definitely get high rank from Poland.Ukraine will get some points from Poland too, mostly due to a huge Ukrainian community working in PL. For the same reason Poland will traditionally get many points from The UK and Ireland. Lots of Poles live there.

Il pleut
Guest
Il pleut

Azerbaijan`s 8 points will go to Hungary…..10 points to Malta………..and finally 12 points will go to Ukraine………I bet……..

Vivi
Guest

@nn you are mistaken! Armenia will give their 12 points to Greece or Ukraine

daniel boom
Guest

stop arguing and vote for malta this year small island big heart and no nieghbours thank you europe ….

Al
Guest
Al

It is incredible how ignorant some of these observations are. Neighboring countries or countries from one region do not always share one cultural heritage and it is not as simple as Greece will give 12 to Romania. Do you even realize that Greece and Romania have nothing in common culturally and the fact they are Balkan countries counts for nothing? Greece is more likely to give 12 to San Marino than Romania my friend! When will you know-it-all specialists learn to RESPECT CULTURE and not comment on it appropriately?

Heyy
Guest
Heyy

Maltas 12 going to Azerbaijan or Russia this year…. Dilara was greeted with a huge applause during a performance on Maltese National TV, while one of tge Russian songwriters is Maltese, and the entry has been enjoying a lot of publicity here.

Azerbaijan, please return the favour and maybe give us the 12 this year 😉

SUNAR
Guest

I hope the countries will vote the song ,, And political life is not mix with music! GOOD LUCK!

MOMO
Guest
MOMO

I am not so excited about the winner…. however I am very excited about San Marino, Montenegro and Slovenia…. and I truly hope they get some votes, since the 3 of them have good songs and artists….

nn
Guest
nn

Russia will gets 12 points from Belarus,Armenia and maybe Azerbaijan Ukraine wil gets 12 points from Lithuania,Latvia,Estonia Armenia will gets 12 points from Russia, Georgia and Ukraine Moldova wiil gave 12 points to Romania Montenegro will gets 12 points from Macedonia,Slovenia, maybe Austria Norway will gets 12 points from Sweden,Finland Netherlands will get 12 points from Belgium France will gave 12 points to Armenia Spain, Portugal will gave 12 points i think to Italy Malta will gave 12 points to Azerbaijan Denmark will gets 12 points from Iceland Sweden will gets 12 points from Norway,Denmark UK,Ireland will gave 12 points… Read more »

daniel boom
Guest

12 points to malta this year

Med
Guest
Med

@D

Macedonia’s 12 points were always known, to be honest. Albania got 5/13, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey & Romania got 2/13 respectively; while Croatia & Serbia got their 12 points just once (1998 & 2009).

But, last year, Denmark got the 12 points. Anyhow, I think that Sergej is well known in Slovenia and Macedonia and he will get its 24 points total from these two. I don’t think that Slovenia will get the 10 from Macedonia, though.

hee
Guest
hee

In Finland the Austria’s entry is getting most attention and in Finnish evening tabloid’s website voting it got most votes. Also Finland has recently been voting to Hungary a lot. I’ll be so disappointed if we give 12 points to Sweden, it’s nothing new and boring, even my friend who is a huge friend of Sweden said that she’s starting to get sick of the chorus that just says again and again “Undoooo” it’s nothing new, it’s irritating.

D
Guest
D

Macedonia and Slovenia aren’t the only ex-Yugoslav countries this year, Montenegro was in Yugoslavia as well. I think Slovenia will give Montenegro 12 points and vice versa, with the two of them competing for Macedonia’s 12.

Diskat
Guest
Diskat

I think Sweden is giving 12 points to Austria: it’s been TT there since the second semifinal 😀

Mikaela
Guest
Mikaela

Im Swedish and i highly doubt our 12 will go to Norway. I think its gonna go to Austria. 10 hungary. 8 Netherlands.
And about the block voting: This is our 12s the last few years: 2013 Norway, 2012 Cyprus, 2011 Ireland, 2010 Germany. So dont be unfair.

gregor
Guest
gregor

The Scandinavians, Baltics and Ex-Soviets?

what about bitchy West?:-)

Med
Guest
Med

So, in the end, we may have a surprise winner that might get 6-10 points from every country. I would put my bet on the Netherlands for getting those points (might be the 12, here & there). But, please, Austria NO!

V
Guest
V

I wouldnt knock france so much. Remember when Jedward first did the final and they got 8th? I think the jury should be a bit more leaner on TWIN TWIN as jessy matador only ever said allez olla ole with his backsingers doing most of the work, Lorent is really putting all his passion and effort in. Looking back at 2009 us UK could get good points from Greece , Malta, Spain and Portugal possibly we could get some off of San Marino. I think there has been too much conflict this year between certain countries and with some comments… Read more »

Emmanuel UK-RO
Guest
Emmanuel UK-RO

Romania will pick up a lot of points from the Scandinavians because of ovi, in 2010 they got a lot of 7’s,8’s and 10’s from them because of his PR. And also Norway will guaranteed give him at least 10 because he is still known for his appearances in MGP.