With yesterday’s Jury Final now complete and all the jury votes tallied, Eurovision bigwig Jan Ola Sand has plugged the results into a computer and set up an algorithm to construct “the most exciting voting results order”. It’s all meant to leave us on the edge of our seats and wet in our pants as we wait to find out where we will be going for Eurovision 2015…

As Eurovision fans know, the EBU assigns countries to semi-finals using six “pots”. These pots group nations together who have historically awarded each other points. The idea is to split them up in the semis, to make the competition more fair. Given how countries tend to vote, it’s important to consider these pots when assessing the announcement of voting order. Let’s review the order and then analyse what it all means.

The order is as follows: (Spokespersons in brackets) [Original semi-final pot in square brackets]

  1. Azerbaijan: (Sabina Babayeva) [3]
  2. Greece: (Andrianna Maggania) [4]
  3. Poland : (Pauliana Chylewska) [5]
  4. Albania: (Andri Xhahu) [1]
  5. San Marino: ( Michele Perniola) [5]
  6. Denmark: (Sofie Lassen-Kahlke)
  7. Montenegro: (Tijana Miskovic) [1]
  8. Romania: (Sonia Argint Ionescu) [6]
  9. Russia: (Alsou) [3]
  10. Netherlands: (Tim Douwsma) [4]
  11. Malta: (Valentina Rossi) [6]
  12. France: (Elodie Suigo)
  13. United Kingdom (Scott Mills)
  14. Latvia: (Ralfs Eilands) [2]
  15. Armenia: (Anna Avanesyan) [4]
  16. Iceland: (Benedikt Valsson) [2]
  17. F.Y.R. Macedonia (Marko Mark) [1]
  18. Sweden: (Alcazar) [2]
  19. Belarus: (Alyona Lanskaya) [3]
  20. Germany: (Helene Fischer)
  21. Israel: (Ofer Nachshon)
  22. Portugal: (Joana Teles) [6]
  23. Norway: (Margrethe Røed)
  24. Estonia: (Lauri Pihlap) [2]
  25. Hungary: (Éva Novodomszky) [5]
  26. Moldova: (Olivia Furtuna) [6]
  27. Ireland: (Nicky Byrne) [4]
  28. Finland: (Redrama) [2]
  29. Lithuania: (Ignas Krupavičius) [2]
  30. Austria: (Kati Bellowitsch) [5]
  31. Spain: (Carolina Casado)
  32. Belgium: (Angelique Vlieghe) [4]
  33. Italy: (Linus)
  34. Ukraine: (Zlata Ognevich) [3]
  35. Switzerland: (Kurt Aeschbacher) [1]
  36. Georgia: (Nodi Tatishvili and Sophi Gelovani) [3]
  37. Slovenia: (Ula Furlan) [1]

Taking a look at the semi-final pots, which indicate regional alliances, the only interesting trend is that Pot 2, which is primarily composed of Nordic nations, does not even start revealing results until 14 in the evening’s order. Its constituents continue to reveal until 29 toward the end. This would imply that this pot is being used halfway through to presumably give Sweden’s Sanna Nielsen a sudden surge to take the lead—or to narrow the lead on the leader they’ve already propped up.

No other pots have striking trends–except perhaps the small pot of Romania, Moldova, Portugal and Malta which is also more toward the middle. To us this implies that Sanna won last night’s jury final. What do you think? And more importantly, do you think the televoters will feel the same way?

Vebooboo Nadella is Deputy Editor and an Amsterdam-based correspondent for wiwibloggs.com. He contributed this report from Copenhagen. For more Eurovision news follow the Team on Twitter @wiwibloggs and like our Facebook page.

Photo: Andreas Putting (EBU)

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Fatima
Guest
Fatima

So now we know that the voting sequence was designed to hold off for as long as possible the moment when Cochita got out of range. And I suppose it was also calculated so that the symbolically important Ukraine would be the country whose votes made the difference.

Tiaan
Guest
Tiaan

@XEIKKK Can we all stop with the ‘vote bashing’? The main reason televoting exists is because it allows viewers the belief that they can influence the results. It is a staple of reality ‘interactive’ TV and it keeps viewers interested and invested. Without this feature, there most probably wouldn’t be a Eurovision anymore. Gone are the days of the 50’s when people would crowd around their radios and just listen to the songs. Nowadays, people need more, demand more. Unfortunately, and this exists mostly in Eastern Europe, populations are heavily mixed. These are not countries that have enjoyed more or… Read more »

XEIKKK
Guest
XEIKKK

The only thing that this (Eurovision bigwig Jan Ola Sand has plugged the results into a computer and set up an algorithm to construct “the most exciting results order ) confirms is that the whole voting and televoting system is a JOKE and that it is , in fact, all based on geopolitics. There shouldn’t be any patterns. If those patters exist , then the whole voting system is unfair. The worst thing about this is that the EBU is more that aware of this situation and don’t do anyting to put an end on it. It’s more than that,… Read more »

Theatrical
Guest
Theatrical

What a load of tosh! This website loves to look desperately for non-existent patterns and then draw conclusions from what amounts to noting more than over-analysis. If Sweden were the winners, then why not leave a few Nordic countries until the very end and give us an even more dramatic finish?

The truth is that you can’t draw reliable patterns or conclusions from such small amounts of data; it’s statistically unreliable. Many of your previous “editorials” have attempted to analyse voting data from previous contests, and those have been equally as flawed.

Emmanuel UK-RO
Guest
Emmanuel UK-RO

@alex rednig
i think those results are fake
firstly, there is no way they would be displayed on a screen
and the points aren’t realistic, the jury awards 1–8-10-12 also, and they have to be combined with the televotes of the specific countries before coming with a number, so they can’t display any votes
the graphic of the tv isn’t the one used by DR aswell, so it’s 110% fake

Alex
Guest
Alex

The problem with this is that it doesn’t factor in pre qualified countries and the nations that aren’t in solid blocs. While this acts as a good indicator, it is far from set in stone.

Davve
Guest
Davve

alex, no that is not the jury voting. it is what the journalists on copenhagen has voted. its not an official result.

gooooo sweden

Julian
Guest
Julian

First Nordic country to give points is Denmark at no. 6. So wrong facts that most probably led to wrong conclusion.
My guess is that the winner will be the last favourite to give points. And this is Ukraine.

Alex Rednig
Guest
Alex Rednig

Wiwibloggs, can you explain this? Is this the leaked jury-vote? Can somebody please shed some light into this?comment image

ori
Guest
ori

@nn

Exactly! I thought the same when I saw it! Furthermore much of the statistics point in her direction. Look at ESCtracker: odds #2, itunes #1, pressvote #1, OGAE #4, YouTube music video views #2. Also the crowd went crazy during the jury rehearsal, they really love Conchita.

If I leave out my own country, it is either Austria or the Netherlands who win. With Austria as the clear favourite.

You notice that Belgium is #32 in the voting order, and their 12 will go to NL. So maybe it is #1 Austria and then # NL very close behind??

bavarson
Guest
bavarson

Say no to western homo-socialist countries favored by the jury such as Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Austria or UK. ?

T
Guest
T

@Dhani

You are so jealous. Maybe you should stop trashing Sweden because it makes you look pathetic. Stop the hating and do something meaningful with your life 🙂

nn
Guest
nn

I think Austria will win, because in last 5 countries to vote, we have 3 Austria neighbour, 33.Italy 35.Switzerland 37.Slovenia

Wood
Guest

@dhani.. Not fun to be jealous 🙂

Everybody knows that Sanna will win 🙂

Dhani
Guest

Of course sweden will win. And then eurovision next year is ruined, because we will have less than 35 countries in.

So disappointed… Sweden does not deserve the win.

Davve
Guest
Davve

Swden will win this. Sanna is a star!

Ian Davis
Guest
Ian Davis

You could look at this list and find countries that support each of the favourites near the end. Oh look Ireland reads 27th and Italy gave us 10 in 2011 and they are reading theirs 33rd =/= UK won the jury. I suspect the winner will be the most consistent country with the votes. It’ll be the 6s, 7s and 8s that decide it this year.

The Hawk
Guest
The Hawk

I reckon The Netherlands could just have easily won the jury vote. When you look at the two pot four countries early on, they are Greece and Armenia – not two countries who you’d straight up expect to be Netherlands supporters. I reckon they’ll have more support amongst those in the second half of the voting order…

Heyy
Guest
Heyy

Redarrow and Eurofan is the same person lol

Vebooboo Nadella
Guest
Vebooboo Nadella

Thanks, Fatima! We are so used to getting hate mail and death threats that it is so nice to see your praise!

bavarson
Guest
bavarson

If this is true, then the jury should be burned at the stake. They always promoted the scandinavian countries. Where is the justice?

ararat
Guest
ararat

Sanna is trash with a lot of make-up.

Fonz
Guest
Fonz

malta has to win! it has the best position 22.

Melissa J
Guest

Malta is already hosting JESC this year. I doubt they’ll want to host the bigger ESC in the same year.

sttwhj
Guest
sttwhj

Isn’t Denmark normally in pot2? If so the first pot2 country is actually at #6.

RC
Guest
RC

In my eyes, I see Malta the winner of the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest!!!

V
Guest
V

I wouldnt knock france so much. Remember when Jedward first did the final and they got 8th? I think the jury should be a bit more leaner on TWIN TWIN as jessy matador only ever said allez olla ole with his backsingers doing most of the work, Lorent is really putting all his passion and effort in. Looking back at 2009 us UK could get good points from Greece , Malta, Spain and Portugal possibly we could get some off of San Marino. I think there has been too much conflict this year between certain countries and with some comments… Read more »

Rupert
Guest
Rupert

I think that’s means Austria will be the winner. If you look all the “homophobic” countries are in the first half in the voting order….
This means Austria will win.

eurofan
Guest

agree malta 100%

Leaf
Guest
Leaf

Cheering for The Netherlands, Hungary and The UK !!!!

The rest is just too gimmicky, too repetitive or just too BLAH

redarrow
Guest

my vote is going to MALTA .. wining song ..

mariya yaremchuk
Guest

eurovision song contest kiev 2015

Fatima
Guest
Fatima

You’ve “undone” the algorithm. Very clever thinking. No other Eurovision website does stuff like this.

marinek
Guest
marinek

ATHENS 2015!GOOD LUCK AWESOME BOYS!

Rupert
Guest
Rupert

Hungary will win, there are no question!
It will be very tie, but i think Running will be the winner song!

Hello
Guest

Sweden will win !!! Stockholm 2015 !!! 🙂 🙂 😉 😉 😀