In the wake of the 2013 Eurovision voting scandal, the EBU has upped its transparency. This year it revealed the jury-televote split almost immediately after the contest. We already know that the EBU had to throw out Georgia’s jury results after it emerged that its five independent jurors had ranked their Top 8 acts identically. We’ve already taken one dig into the results—see our earlier analysis here. Now we’re digging in again. This time we’re seeing interesting patterns emerging with the jury votes in Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Montenegro.
First let’s look at the votes from Israel, a country that clearly has no friends in Eurovision. The independence of the five Israeli jurors (A, B, C, D, E) is rather clear, as they demonstrate a wide spread in their votes.
The countries are listed across the bottom. On the left you can see the ranking for the country from 1st to 26th. Each dot is that juror’s vote for that country. If you see less than 5 dots in a column, then several jurors gave the same ranking to that country. For instance, there is only one dot in Azerbaijan’s rankings for Armenia. That is because every single juror ranked Armenia last.
You see close agreement for Austria and Sweden, which is understandable. For the rest of the countries there is a pretty good spread. If you’d like more precise numbers, you can pull down the full vote results.
From the independence of Israel we turn to the rather suspicious results in Azerbaijan, Belarus and Montenegro. The consistency with which jurors voted seems like much more than a coincidence.
In fact, they appear to show collusion. I don’t see how, even if you get 5 people with identical taste in music, that they can, across 25 countries, differ by, at most, 3 points for almost every act. Maybe they all will closely agree on their favorite 5. And their least favorite 5. But how do you get agreement on number’s 8 – 18?
And finally, per wiwiblogger Mike Bos:
Estonia’s voting was the best. I think all their points did go to countries in the top 11 (they only forgot Denmark in the ninth place) they gave points to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 11
And yet, even with a result that clearly matches the continent wide results, there is still a significant spread in the votes for all the acts except 4. No Scandinavian bias. No East Bloc bias. Kudos to Estonia.
I also wonder what the EBU’s statistical analysis consists of when they accepted the questionable grouping shown above. Releasing the raw votes is a great first step. But disallowing juries needs to be more than just Georgia’s case where the votes are completely identical. I think the EBU may need some help with this.
What do y’all think? Do the results point toward collusion between Azerbaijan, Belarus and Montenegro?
Photo Credit: screenshot of final broadcast from EBU YouTube channel.