We only know a little over half the songs which will compete in Eurovision 2015, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from pulling out their abacuses and chalkboards, and updating their odds for who will win this year’s contest.

Until now Estonia have been comfortable favourites. Even before Elina & Stig stormed to Eesti Laul victory with “Goodbye To Yesterday”, the odds makers were backing the Baltic nation. However, they’ve just been knocked down to third place in the rankings.

Can Italy win Eurovision 2015?

The Italian San Remo winners Il Volo now occupy the top spot in the betting odds. The “Grande Amore” singers have been met with a mixed to positive reaction from hard-core fans, but that clearly hasn’t done them any harm in the stakes.

Can Finland win Eurovision 2015?

Just behind Italy is Finland, who have opted to send punk rockers Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät ahead of early fan favourites such as Satin Circus and Siru. “Aina mun pitää” has faced somewhat of a backlash, with many suggesting the Finns voted for an inspirational back-story rather than a song. Nevertheless, Europe’s media seems to be enthralled, as do the bookies.

Despite having yet to announce their artist or song, newcomers Australia sit in fourth, while the rest of the top ten is made up of perennial favourites – Norway, Sweden, Spain, Greece, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. So far, we only know Spain’s entry, although we’ve heard all the contenders in Norway, Sweden and Greece.

Of course, not everyone can be favourite. San Marino, Belarus, Portugal, Albania and FYR Macedonia currently make up the bottom five.

You can see the rest of the odds below, courtesy of Oddschecker.

Eurovision 2015 Winner | Betfred Odds (3 March)

  1. Italy 7/4
  2. Finland 3
  3. Estonia 9/2
  4. Australia 10
  5. Norway 8
  6. Sweden 10
  7. Spain 14
  8. Greece 12
  9. Azerbaijan 12
  10. Armenia 16
  11. Slovenia 16
  12. Serbia 16
  13. Denmark 20
  14. Germany 25
  15. Russia 25
  16. Iceland 25
  17. Romania 25
  18. Czech Republic 25
  19. Netherlands 20
  20. Switzerland 20
  21. United Kingdom 20
  22. Latvia 33
  23. Lithuania 33
  24. Poland 33
  25. Hungary 33
  26. Montenegro 33
  27. Malta 33
  28. Israel 33
  29. Austria 33
  30. Moldova 33
  31. Belgium 40
  32. Ireland 40
  33. Cyprus 25
  34. Georgia 33
  35. France 40
  36. San Marino 66
  37. Belarus 50
  38. Portugal 80
  39. Albania 100
  40. FYR Macedonia 80

What do you think of the current betting odds? The bookies always get some of the favourites wrong. Which of these favourites is more likely to tank than to win? And who’s worth an early punt? Let us know in the comments below.

What the bookies thought back in January

79 Comments
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Alessandra
5 years ago

1 ITALY
2 Estonia
3 Spain
4 Sweden
5 Norway

Il Volo!!! IL VOLO!!!

Loretta
Loretta
6 years ago

Here’s my vote ITALY ALL THE WAY YEAH IL VOLO

Jack
Jack
6 years ago

I REALLY THINK THIS YEAR WE HAVE ONLY 2 GOOD SONGS- ESTONIA AND ITALY. ONE OF THEM WILL WIN, I HOPE ESTONIA, BUT WILL NOT CRY IF ITALY…
FINLAND? ARE YOU GUYS SERIOUS?:)))

Jofer
Jofer
6 years ago

Italy (Il Volo) is still the best for this year’s eurovision

Charles
Charles
6 years ago

@Alex: I would not underestimate whatever kind of mediatic power those 2 minute rubbish noise from Finland can do in Eurovision despite the impact of a jury or not. Eurovision has had winners for reasons that totally neglected musical merits and I personally will not mention which ones just to avoid repeating myself (some people here like to read all the commas and full stops I write down here for some reason). But considering the impact of these 4 men due to their disabilities has had in social media and news outlets all over the WORLD (US included) I would… Read more »

Charles
Charles
6 years ago

@ESCaddict: Flattered that you not only are addicted for some reason to Eurovision (I kinda doubt that it’s about music but …) but also that you religiously follow my comments with such degree unable to ignore them considering I say nothing you probably could agree with. Good for you! 🙂 Don’t forget to vote for Finland’s … song? 2-minute noise? or whatever that is? Keep the kitsch and the bad taste on the roll for Eurovision because that is what Eurovision really needs, going downhill further and further deep 🙂

BunnyC
BunnyC
6 years ago

People are saying that its a bad year but I really disagree, the only bad song is Finland and I REALLY HOPE IT DOESN’T”T WIN! Here are my reviews on all of them: Ireland:I like this song, it’s something different and it’s strong, but I think that people won’t vote for it, sorry 🙁 Lithuania: IMO this song is overrated, people put it really high up and I think that it is really just average. Malta: My sister’s favourite! I love it, it is a good, eurovisiony song, I think it could potentially win. Cyprus: IMO underrated, but I don’t… Read more »

Amerivision Fan
Amerivision Fan
6 years ago

A little late but ahead of the Greek final, here’s my list:

1. Italy
2. Spain
3. Estonia
4. Iceland
5. Switzerland
6. Lithuania
7. Malta
8. Slovenia
9. Ireland (would’ve been higher if it was Erika)
10. Hungary
11. France
12. Serbia
13. Belarus
14. Netherlands (overrated)
15. Latvia
16. Denmark
17. Moldova (EPIC SAX GUY WAS ROBBED)
18. FYROM
19. Georgia (extremely overrated)
20. Cyprus
21. Finland

ESCaddict
ESCaddict
6 years ago

@charles, haven’t you said all this before….. like a hundred times?

Nitzan
Nitzan
6 years ago

Italy well deserved and def out there for the win.

Finland will be FAR from winning and might be perceived by many a tasteless freak show.

Sweden with Mans should be up there at 2nd.

Estonia has the potential to get lost a bit with several countries going for the same niche following Netherlands 14.

Graph
6 years ago

A lot of surprises here! Most countries in the top 10 don’t even have a song yet. And of the ones that do have a song, Denmark is 7th? Looking around Youtube and Wiwibloggs, I can’t remember anyone who loves this song. It’s usually near the bottom or at best mid-ranked. Iceland is a lot higher than I expected. I like the song a lot, but I expected it to get criticized the same way that Russia’s song did last year (minus the politics). I don’t know why Italy is the favorite to win. From a stylistic standpoint, I would… Read more »

Frank21
Frank21
6 years ago

Absolutely Spain , then Estonia and Italy , Ireland i like too , Netherlands and …..thats all

Alex
Alex
6 years ago

Did the bookies forget about the existence of a jury? There’s no way PKN will get enough points from jury members to win… I doubt they’ll even have enough points to make top 5. Belarus and France are seriously undervalued in these odds. I think there’s gonna be a lot of people who find the Lindsay-Sterling-inspired entry from Uzari and Maimuna to be appealing (not to mention the former Soviet bloc not being afraid to vote for Belarus), and France has a strong singer with a bold song which may feel especially powerful to televoters in the wake of the… Read more »

Bledar Leka
Bledar Leka
6 years ago

“Don’t judge people because of their disability”

Bookies: “They’re Down syndrome and people will vote for them because of that, so let’s put them second”

Pastora Soler haha!
Pastora Soler haha!
6 years ago

Estonia is still my favourite. If Mans Zelmerlow is the winner Sweden will be 2nd.

Finland no comments… if people like that song why they don’t appear on Itunes list?

We know the answer.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
6 years ago

@Ruby: I thought Carl Espen’s song was just as average when I watched last year’s Norsk Melodi Grand Prix (I wanted Linnea Dale to win). After 3 evaluations of all the songs and their music videos, he ended up my #1 ESC pick (he finished 8th).

Ranting Ruby
Ranting Ruby
6 years ago

Am I the only person who thinks Estonia’s song is completely average and really badly performed? Happy to be converted, but I really don’t get it!!!!!

Robyn Gallagher
Admin
6 years ago

I think it’s unlikely that Finland would win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the top five from the televote. Remember, not everyone who watches Eurovision is a fan of the show. Some people are only watching because the rest of their friends/family/housemates are watching. If some crusty old punk is watching the ESC, he might be much more likely to vote for his Finnish musical brethren than for a shouty lady. But as much fun as “Aina mun pitää” is, I don’t think it will do well with juries, who tend to be quite conservative and… Read more »

Charles
Charles
6 years ago

Like Dana International in 1998, with Lordy in 2006 and Conchita Wurst last year … Eurovision does not need to be won by music, as it was supposed to be … all you need is to have something outrageous that justifies being noticed by all social media outlets, TV news report all over the world and that’s it … all the ingredients to win a competition that was about music but … apparently does not have to be … a transsexual towards the end of the 20th century, a rock band disguised as monsters for no reason, a drag queen… Read more »

Darren
Darren
6 years ago

I really think Ireland is underrated this year, so far, most of the songs I have heard all kind of sound the same, yet Ireland is still marked down. Give it a listen guys, it is really a grower. Anyways, Malta, Switzerland and Iceland are basically the same song and I think they are overrated. Estonia has taken obvious similarities from the Netherlands last year, it wont win, its just an early favorite like Italy and Sweden were last year. So far, I think Spain, Italy, Ireland, Netherlands or Georgia should win as they are the only songs that stand… Read more »

Adams
Adams
6 years ago

We have the jury and they should vote for the best songs and performers. If that’s not the case, than what is the role of the jury?

Italy is my winner, so far.

Marius
Marius
6 years ago

The Romanian song, in english! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1fKH0FMmJk

mocosuburbian
mocosuburbian
6 years ago

PKN made the local news in Washington D.C.
When the US is onto Eurovision, you know there’s a problem
I feel like Finland is a serious contender (and I’m terrified)

someone
someone
6 years ago

I don’t expect Finland to win but hopefully they will get into the final (though it may be difficult with the juries) I really think Italy and France’s song are the best of the current songs with France being a strong ballad and Italy having a beautiful opera song. What a lovely change it would be to have a song winning that was sung in the countries own language. Estonia’s song is nice but it’s not really a winners song for me because it doesn’t really provoke an emotion in me as previous winners songs have in the past.

BunnyC
BunnyC
6 years ago

Estonia is still my favourite <3 Finland's song tho? No one has it above their least favourite. I think Estonia is the best to win but I quite like Italia's song too

MTD
MTD
6 years ago

San Marino, Belarus, Portugal, Albania and Macedonia.

The countries that year after year sit at the bottom of these bookies odds. Sad, really sad.

Noah
Noah
6 years ago

Finland? FINLAND???

RIP ESC.

Paul
6 years ago

And I think it would be unfair on the part of the Finnish organizers when the audience will vote for the group with hideous song out of a sense of compassion for the ailment, leaving below real talents.

Paul
6 years ago

PKN can win. And big thanks for PR to mass medias.
Possible conversation between housewives:
– Dear, imagine, a group of patients with Down syndrome will sing at Eurovision!
– WOW! And what they sing?
– I do not know. But let’s support them morally and send SMS with their number. They will be pleased.
Real situation? I think – yes.

ESContest
ESContest
6 years ago

Italy and Spain for me

LucyEAPercy
6 years ago

Eurgh, if either Finland or Italy win, I’ll lose my shit. Finland are not sending a good song AT ALL, the actual SONG (i repeat, SONG) is terrible, and doesn’t deserve to beat the likes of Elina and Stig, and Edurne. I’m dreading it making it past its semi. As for Italy, yes they are talented, but I find it so dull. Would be a lot more deserving than some entries i suppose though. I hope Estonia win, or Latvia. But most of all…UK!!! Can’t wait to hear our song, it better be good to compete this year. The BBC… Read more »

Chris
Chris
6 years ago

For now it is just fun. We have already known only a half of the songs. Last year the strongest entries were revealed at the end (Austria, Sweden) or were predicted to fail (The Netherlands). Two things are interesting in these odds – a good ballad from Malta (very low) and an unknown song from the Czech Republic (quite high).

Edward Nygma
Edward Nygma
6 years ago

Italy and Estonia have so far the best songs in the contest and it would be a pleasant surprise if for once the best song actually wins. As for Finland, a huge no for a song, but the country deserved it so many times during the past few years.

WTF
WTF
6 years ago

PKN don’t deserve to win but I sure as hell like their song more than those atrocities sent by Serbia and Georgia. I bet they wouldn’t get the same amount of hate if they didn’t sing in a genre so alien to ESC audiences. Yeah, it’s not great punk but it’s passable.

Mar
Mar
6 years ago

Go Italy! God, I’ve been reduced to an Il Volo fangirl, I should be ashamed (I’m not) PKN were always the favourites to win UMK and they had a huge margin over all other acts in the betting odds, so it makes sense that now that they’ve won their lead is only being reassured. Finland were never second with the bookies because of Satin Circus lol. One thing that grabbed my attention is that while Finland is really high on the overall table, they are not in the top ten to make it out of their semifinal, or at least… Read more »

blondboybc
blondboybc
6 years ago

While I agree with some commentators that betting odds are not always accurate, they do indicate a trend, and right now it’s in favour of Italy, Finland and even Spain. Having seen Italy live, I can say their current position is well-deserved…Finland’s position in 2nd is mind-boggling, but that will change as the next months go by, and all the songs are released. Anyway, unlike last year there’s not really any song I really dislike–with the exception of Finland’s. (Sorry, Finland!)

Deniz@TurkNL
6 years ago

Yeah PKN
was already on the Dutch news yesterday

EUROFAN MEXICO
6 years ago

ESTONIA NEEDS A BETTER PERFORMANCE, SHE MUT TO CHARGE HER DRESS, AND THE ODDS MEN THINK THAT EUROPE WIL BE CONMOVIDE FOR FINLAND BOYS , BUT U THINK THAT THE GRANDE AMORE WILL HAVE A GOOD AMANECER TANKS TO THE MONSTER THATS IS COMING TO THE TOP 3, DONY DENY

escspain
escspain
6 years ago

grech, In Eurovision it’s about songs and it’s completely unfair to others if someone gets more votes only because of having down sindrome. Amanecer has reached Top 100 itunes in Sweden,Portugal and Norway, where it’s still there.

Racal
Racal
6 years ago

I truly support Finland in their move to raise awareness on developmental disabilities, and I hope they will get a lot of visibility. But seriously, that song is NOT good and does NOT deserve to win…

jr esc nl
jr esc nl
6 years ago

tomas, ? wtf he just wrote the betting odds positions at the moment wich are a fact why would you be mad about that

Leaf
Leaf
6 years ago

What do they base this on…. No one ever knows what half of the songs are and we have odds for countries that haven’t presented their entry in an internal selection….. Very disappointing

Giorgos
Giorgos
6 years ago

Both Italy and Estonia deserve to win!! I think Italy has more chances this year… Let’s hope we won’t have any sad surprises in May with Finland to be a winner…(worst song for me right now)

Omar - Mexico
Omar - Mexico
6 years ago

With respect… Finland sucks.

jr esc nl
jr esc nl
6 years ago

the jurys could ruin finlands chances… lets hope so

Leon
Leon
6 years ago

I actually have my fingers crossed for France. I know it’s a long stretch, but I just love the French entry this year.

Daniel
Daniel
6 years ago

These odds are rubbish!

spartan
spartan
6 years ago

EDURNE.
———
AMANECER

Ryanireland
Ryanireland
6 years ago

Italy will be the first non English winner since molitva. It’s a deserved top finisher. Estonia is boring me now. Finland I reckon it’ll either soar or plummet juries will kill it.
Australia in top 5. Ridiculous. I’d they win eurovision will change forever.
Finally do not underestimate molly from Ireland

PP
PP
6 years ago

I think on betting odds Finland is so overrated. Maybe they wili not pass semifinla (like Norway 2011, or Sweden 2010). On You tube , fan of Eurovision on their rank list put Finland on last place 21 in 95%. Only if juries wili push them in semifinal in final (like Italy 2011 in final), but we saw that finland juries put them on only 4 position, and they only winn thank to televote and decision 90 % televote and only 10 % juries) I don t think so that Finland wili be in TOP 5 in semifinal and maybe… Read more »