Australia, Guy Sebastian, 1

Guy Sebastian‘s impressive performance at Eurovision In Concert has had an impact on the Eurovision betting odds, with Australia now the third favourite to win, nudging Estonia into fourth place. Let’s take a look at the latest Eurovision odds, as compiled by Oddschecker on 21 April 2015.

Australia joins Sweden and Italy at the top

The last time we checked in on 17 March, Australia was sitting as the fourth favourite with odds of 10/1. But after Guy Sebastian’s performance of “Tonight Again” in Amsterdam, Australia’s odds have shortened, with some bookies offering 7/1. Meanwhile Estonia’s Elina Born and Stig Rästa have been keeping a low profile in the pre-Eurovision season. They’ve seen their odds drift from 4/1 to 10/1 at some betting shops.

And it’s an all-male top three with Sweden and Italy comfortably remaining at the top. Måns Zelmerlöw’s “Heroes” is still the hot favourite, with some bookies offering odds as low as 5/4. Il Volo and their “Grande Amore” are a close second with odds from 3/1.

Slovenia and Switzerland drift, Iceland shortens

Another favourite, Slovenia, has seen their odds drift somewhat. Duo Maraaya previously had odds as low as 10/1, but they’re now sitting around 14/1. That has seen them slide from fifth favourite to sixth favourite. Finland’s Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät now sit in fifth place, but their odds have drifted to as much as 23/1, previously having been around 4/10.

Switzerland has significantly drifted. A month ago they were at 50/1, but now Melanie Rene’s “Time to Shine” is at around 101/1, putting Switzerland amongst the bottom ten ranked songs. But things are looking better for Iceland. Maria Olafs’s song “Unbroken” has seen the odds go from 66/1 a month ago to as low as 34/1 today.

EUROVISION 2015 BETTING ODDS: ODDSCHECKER

21 April odds a
21 April odds b
21 April odds c

What do you think of these odds? Is Australia overrated? Who could still surprise? Leave your comments below!

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Arthur
Arthur
5 years ago

Belarus! i’ll vote for belarus! nice song ! great Maimuna 😉

Kleve
Kleve
5 years ago

Belarus is the best! I really like this song!

eleyna
eleyna
5 years ago

Georgia should definitely be in the TOP 3!!!

Iame
Iame
5 years ago

I don’t think Italy is going to win as the RAI channel looks absolutely not interested in hosting an event like this. Esc is pretty unkown in the Country, very few people know about it. Furthermore: in Italy there is already a very popular competition: San Remo.

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@WTF, you know i’d be very happy if she makes the final at least then i can hear her song again, @Darren, so good you are also rooting for Ireland, really talented singer just 17 years old. also one of my favourites for the victory. thank you for that. and yes i admit i’m a strong fan of Amber , i admire her for never giving up her fifth time sending a entry, and this time Malta sends a serious song, instead of a joyful happy song, which i also liked from Malta. @Darren, good luck for Ireland, really hope… Read more »

per
per
5 years ago

Australias is so 80s, its an oldfaschon song, its says me nothing. Sweden 1 place
Australia 27 place

fikri
fikri
5 years ago

it’s only a matter of time before italy being bumped down to 3rd place… i can’t wait! it’s a good song but come on… it’s sooo amaury vasilli 2.0. i want australia to win so that they could send kylie minogue next year. *crosses fingers*

Thales
Thales
5 years ago

I don’t get all the hype for Sweden this year.
And last year.

My top 2 this year is Estonia and Slovenia. Any of those 2 winning, I will be really happy.

I can see why Australia is so high on the bookies. A professional song, with a professional artist. Actually Guy Sebasitan is in my top 5 (together with Belgium and Germany).

The guys from Italy have great vocals. But the song is too predictable for the country. Anyway, I hope they get a top 10, at least.

No way Russia, Iceland, UK and Armenia win the Eurovision.

Mar
Mar
5 years ago

@Paul, I feel ya buddy, I’ve been wondering the same thing about Estonia since the Eesti Laul songs were announced. I mean, it’s a good song, with a moody atmosphere, but winning material? Don’t see how that works.

Paul
Paul
5 years ago

I’ve got to get this off my chest…. Why is everyone so excited about Estonia? Am I missing something? The song is flat, doesn’t go anywhere and the chorus is a non-event. There. I said it.
And also Iceland – the song has so much potential and is really catchy – but does no one else hear that they practically just repeat the chorus over and over – where are the verses?? Rant. Over.
Go Italy and Australia!

BunnyC
BunnyC
5 years ago

Imo, Estonia is the best song by miles, it is just amazing! I hope it will win, but I would be happy for Sweden or Italy too win as well. I am Australian and I love the song, but we won’t win, we’re not in it to win, we just want to be a part of it, imo we could come top 5 though. I also really love Norway’s song, it’s really gorgeous and tho it wont win it could come 2nd!

per
per
5 years ago

And why is Australia so high up?

Andrew
Andrew
5 years ago

why is finland so high up?

mocosuburbian
mocosuburbian
5 years ago

I don’t get how Georgia is so far down the list
Finland has no chance of winning, by the way
according to some fellow Americans who have no idea what the Eurovision is (that happen to be typically good judges of what will place where) Finland’s song is a trashy entry that means well but falls flat
I doubt it’ll grab anyone’s vote
I also don’t understand how Germany and Armenia’s placings work
nobody likes Armenia, and everyone likes Germany
diaspora voting won’t mean much

Maltish1
Maltish1
5 years ago

@My previous comment: Forgot Albania ( One song which is a strong contender for the top 5 though the top 3 seems far fetched.)

Maltish1
Maltish1
5 years ago

@Everyone saying there are a ton of countries in for the win: No, not really. At best there are two which are Sweden, Estonia. Any other song is in no way shape or form a contndor for the win. Italy and Australia are excellent contenders for a top three finish. Azerbaijan, Russia are definitely have no chance to fight for the title, they’ve all sent better songs recently ( All of which took part in the 2013 contest ). Belgium and Norway are both songs which divide opinion greatly ( too much to win, though it still remains to be… Read more »

Darren
Darren
5 years ago

Its a known fact that odds dont really man anything, bookies set them up. We wont know for sure until the rehearsals and semi finals, some of those countries in the top 27 wont even make the final, there are always surprises. This year, I am rooting for: – Germany – (catchy song, written by the talented Ella Eyre) – Sweden – (typical high standard performance from Sweden, I’m not surprised) – Norway – (beautiful contemporary ballad) – Ireland – (Best Irish entry since 2013, although, like 2013, incredibly underrated) – Australia – (Might win just to stay in next… Read more »

Mar
Mar
5 years ago

I think the deal with Australia is that once the buzz of the novelty wore off, people just kinda forgot they were there, but now with Guy’s amazing performance, we’ve been reminded of just how strong they are.
Austr

Chris
Chris
5 years ago

I’m so shocked at Australian performance. A studio version was quite mediocre and the song itself as well. But on the stage this song is impressive! It has been the biggest surprise for me at this year’s Eurovision so far. Guy Sebastian is so natural, he rules the stage. He can contact to the audience. His vocal is amazing. It is a rare case when the live version is much better than the studio one. Hence, I can easily rank Australia in my TOP3, next to France and Belgium. What a change! Nonetheless, I have to admit that this song… Read more »

per
per
5 years ago

Timo!
If you dont no. Charlotte Pirelli and Måns song, ar NOT the same song

Bledar Leka
Bledar Leka
5 years ago

This is the day Bledar gave up with odds forever…..

conor
conor
5 years ago

i think georgia is a dark horse!!! but it really is too close to call this year, there are so many good song. i think we’ll have a rough idea of the top 5 after the semi’s

cheesecake
cheesecake
5 years ago

This year ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, it’s so unpredictable. And as we saw last year, the winner could easily be someone outside the bookies’ top 20.

I want Estonia to win so badly though, I love them.
I’m not sure about Australia. They can make it but I’m not sure if I want that to happen.
Iceland is terribly overrated by the way.

WTF
WTF
5 years ago

@Nicky1991: Damn, you give Mario a run for his money… Malta has absolutely no chance of winning, you should be happy if it even makes the final.

bavarson
bavarson
5 years ago

Australia is not a favorite of ESC 2015.

Lucas
Lucas
5 years ago

For me the most underrated country is Georgia. Maybe it has not chances to win due to the voting attitude but it should be considered as strong top 5 material. And for so many reasons they have the best song and I am pretty sure that the live performance in Vienna will be just unforgettable. Bookies need to change their perspectives!!!!

Deven O'Kearney
Deven O'Kearney
5 years ago

@Nicky1991

Deven O'Kearney
Deven O'Kearney
5 years ago

I love Malta’s entry. I’m just not sure if it will win. It will probably qualify. But realistically, it probably won’t win unless the staging is mind blowing. But if Malta win, I’ll be very happy.

This is my opinion (TIMO)
This is my opinion (TIMO)
5 years ago

This is not based on reality, bookies take into consideration factors such as song writers, artists etc…..We had many favourites failed miserably like Amaury, Anna Vissi etc. they were big favourites and didn’t eveg get to top 5, there are many other examples ofcourse but no need to get fooled by bookies who are only interested in making money with tricky business THATS ALL…..I think Azerbaijan and Norway are the one to watch for top 2, Italy entry is rather focused on strong vocal but the song is a bit boring without the strong vocal it would be worst, Sweden… Read more »

EF0912
EF0912
5 years ago

I really want Albania to win it all but I feel like as though Australia or Finland will. Its like this years Finnish national selection, we all knew PKN will win it but we didn’t want to believe it and were left with a massive disappointment.

Oostenrijk
Oostenrijk
5 years ago

Australia and Italy are my favourites for the win. Astrologically, the tensions and melancholy of the last months, where NFs took place, are over. May, June and forthcoming months see a change in the mood, people are more light-hearted and happier, so a happy, uplifting pop song will win.

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@Deven, What About Malta, i think they are an outsider. they are in a semi final with a lot of friend countries, who will give points like Australia , Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Lithuania, Azerbaijan

per
per
5 years ago

Estonia cant vinn, they must lern to sing firs. Australia is bad and booooooring. For me its say nothing.

Deven O'Kearney
Deven O'Kearney
5 years ago

I think there are 15 countries that could actually win Eurovision this year (Not all are bookies favourites necessarily.). But the only country that I think is a safe bet for top 5 this year is Estonia. For some strange reason. I think that either: Sweden Italy Australia (The song, singer and novelty. A winning combination.) Estonia Slovenia Finland (On it’s own merits.) Iceland Azerbaijan Albania Ireland (This will have to be staged amazingly.) Spain Belgium (It’s something very different to the norm.) Poland (If this is staged well and people feel her story and struggles, this should no doubt… Read more »

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@Eugene UK, yes i hope they put on YouTube for people don’t come.
but have fun. maybe a meet and greet with Amber. she’s really funny and nice.

and don’t react to trolls over here, go with your own gut. i’m the biggest Eurovision fan , been watching for 8 years, and i really like Amber , i’m just her biggest fan, loved her with Kurt Calleja in 2012.

Eugene ESC UK
5 years ago

Nicky1991 :- Yes 13 countries now confirmed for The London Eurovision Party at the Café de Paris in London’s West End on Sunday and Malta is one of them, look forward to that.

The UK’s video was shot at the Café de Paris.

joey
joey
5 years ago

Of course Australia is Goddamn Overrated!!! ITALY FOR THE WIN!!!

PP
PP
5 years ago

I think fight for win will be between Sweden, Estonia and Italy
Dark horse for win Azerbaijan and Australia after Eurovision in concert.
Slovenia no chance , after Eurovision in concert.
Chance for TOP 5 , Norway my favorite to win, but I think they don t have any chance to win the contest.

jeremy
jeremy
5 years ago

Possible winners – Estonia, Georgia, Slovenia

Will
Will
5 years ago

I wonder where we would go next year if Australia wins. I was thinking somewhere in Switzerland (Zürich maybe, as its a nateral country and where the EBU are based), but then I realised it would probably have to be a big 5 country (so there wouldn’t be another automatic qualifier). I don’t think France, Spain or Italy would be interested in co-hosting so I imagine it going to Germany or the UK. What do you guys think?

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@Eugene UK, and she hasn’t been to any events in a few days she’ll perform in London but Live Rehearsal in Vienna that’s the most important.

she hasn’t come to amsterdam, because she had her own concert with previous maltese entries.

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@Eugene UK, yeah but i think you’ll be suprised how this new version of Malta’s warrior has improved her voice .

and oke her National final performance was horrible, but the screechy is out of the song.

Arianator
Arianator
5 years ago

Lol they will not win

Peyton
Peyton
5 years ago

I don’t think Italy is going to do as good as people think it’s going to… And Sweden is very overrated, I think it’s a top 5 song, but defiantly not a winner. Australia has an average song and is probably only that high up because it’s Australia’s first (and probably last) participation. But Guy does have a fantastic voice. I think Estonia has the best chance to win, a simple, relaxing and easy to memorize song. I think this is 100% going to be in the top 3 I don’t even think Finland is going to qualify to the… Read more »

Eugene ESC UK
5 years ago

Nicky1991 :- The article is about Bookie odds, my comment is about Bookie odds. But yes, the real changes in the odds will take place after the live rehearsals. It does show it is important for countries to be at these events and to promote their songs.

It’s not ALL about Malta you know………………perhaps don’t expect too much, that way you won’t be disappointed. I have not got Malta in my Top 20 at the moment, plenty of time to change though.

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@MalteseTimpana, maybe even Malta as a suprise win, should be fun going to Valletta in 2016. i heard her this weekend singing Warrior , and it was better then her national final.

Nicky1991
Nicky1991
5 years ago

@Eugene UK, maybe you should wait saying anything after first rehearsal, because Serbia was really good in amsterdam as it received a standing ovation, and as for Malta, we have not heard her live since she released the video and the orchestral version, so Judge after you heard the rehearsals in Vienna.

MalteseTimpana
MalteseTimpana
5 years ago

As I have been saying this whole year, the betting odds are not to be trusted. This year will definitely have surprise winner, i’m guessing maybe Slovenia or Albania, maybe even Georgia!

Levi
Levi
5 years ago

I remember last year the United Kingdom was consistently ranked by the bookies in the top 5 and ended below Belarus in the 17th spot.

Sal
Sal
5 years ago

This time last year Austria and Netherlands weren’t even bothering the top of the betting charts!

It seems the bookmakers simply never changed Finland’s odds after Siru failed to qualify, so I’m ignoring Finland here but we all know that out of the top-rated songs about two will flop much lower than expected (Sweden 2010, Estonia 2011, Greece 2014 are just a small few examples) and maybe one or two countries lower down will end up surprising us all (Albania 2012, Netherlands and Austria 2014). So, let’s not take these odds tooo seriously here 😉