During last night’s jury final for semi final 1, betting agencies had their ears to the ground (and, in all likelihood, a direct line to some of the jurors). Following the show they have revised their betting odds for who will win tonight’s first semi final. You can read the highlights and see the full oddstables for who will win and who will qualify below.

Semi final 1 Betting odds: Who will win?

Russia’s Polina Gagarina remains the bookies favourite to win the first semi. Hours before the jury final she was already the bookies’ favourite with odds of 4/5 at a number of betting agencies. After the jury final her odds narrowed slightly, dropping to 4/6 at some betting houses. Russia has brought its A-game vocally and visually. Even with a somewhat out-of-place drummer who goes all hand-clappy during the bridge, this remains a major contender.

But Mother Russia faces a major threat from Estonia. Elina & Stig — who the bookies have held up as a favourite since January — gave an emotional performance on Monday evening. Elina’s eyes seemed to water and she absolutely smouldered. Their pared back LEDs are simple and stirring, and a nice contrast to Russia’s over-the-top explosion of lights. And while they remain second-most-likely-to-win, their odds have widened since the jury show. 888sport moved them from 9/4 before the show to 3/1 afterwards. BETVICTOR moved them from 9/4 to 11/4.

A large gap opens up on the oddstable after that, with Georgia’s Nina Sublatti sitting as third favourite. She’s in the same position as she was before the jury final, but her odds have widened slightly at some agencies. BET365 had her down at 12/1 before the show, while BETVICTOR had her at 10/1. Following the show she had widened to 16/1 and 12/1 respectively.

Following the jury show Belgium’s Loic Nottet has climbed from sixth favourite to fourth favourite, surpassing Albania’s Elhaida Dani and Finland’s PKN in the process. Romania’s Voltaj has done well, jumping from seventh favourite to fifth.

Here’s the full table.

eurovision semi final 1 betting odds

Semi final 1: Odds to qualify

Those are, of course, the odds to win the semi-final. The bookies run a separate table for who will actually qualify.

At the moment they belive the following 10 acts are the most likely to make it through: Russia, Estonia, Romania, Greece, Georgia, Armenia, Belgium, Albania, Belarus, and Hungary. That means Denmark, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Serbia, Moldova and the Netherlands are out.

Prior to the jury final they had Finland as more likely to qualify than Hungary.

eurovision 2015 odds to qualify

Semi final 1: Jury final review

Photo: Eurovision.tv (EBU)

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aledoo
Guest

serbia is always the worst,the have the worst song this year,and they don’t deserve to participate in this contest,they are the worssstt people in planet

Wes
Guest
Wes

So funny to read all the positive messages about Trijntje! Its a shame that she didn’t make finals. She was the best singer of the first semi final. What about Albania getting through to the next round. Come on Europe, are we deaf!!!! The woman couldn’t sing one note clear!!!

Oostenrijk
Guest
Oostenrijk

OUT TONIGHT, My guess:

Belarus
Denmark
Armenia
Moldova
Serbia
Macedonia

Eetu
Guest
Eetu

Macedonia is going to qualify 😀

Eugene ESC UK
Guest

Robyn :- It’s not just LGBT, last year it was also about Ukraine as well.

I have no idea to be honest, it’s a total unknown. Personally as I have said, I think this is the best staging of the WHOLE contest and as I also said the juries will put it the winner without doubt. When everyone sees this tonight they are going to be amazed, it’s going to be hard for the televoters to ignore it. It’s my winner tonight.

sweety
Guest
sweety

1. Belgium my absolute winner of semi 1
2. Estonia
3. Russia
4. Georgia
5. Finland
6. Netherlands
7. Armenia
8. Hungary
9.Greece
10. Serbia

Mario My Vision of Gay Love
Guest
Mario My Vision of Gay Love

Well i think that Finland will most likely finish to a low place in the top10 but because the juries will have it at the rock bottom then i do not think that PKN will manage to qualify to the final though..

BuyHere.Now
Guest
BuyHere.Now

My prediction for Top 10 ESC2015

01-10 United Kingdom”Still in Love with You”
01-10 Austria”I am Yours”
01-10 Germany”Black Smoke”
01-10 Italy”Grande amore”
01-10 Holland”Walk Along”

01-10 Hungary”Wars for Nothing”
01-10 Albania”I’am Alive”
01-10 Norway”A Monster Like Me”
01-10 Estonia”Goodbye to Yesterday”
01-10 Ireland”Playing with Numbers”

T
Guest
T

Wouldn’t be suprised if Finland qualified. I definitely think it will be top 10 in the televoting. It all depends on the juries.

GK HELLAS
Guest
GK HELLAS

1.estonia
2.albania
3.russia
4.georgia
5.greece
6.netherlands
7.belgium
8.Romania
9.belarus
10.armenia

However i believe that instead of belarus finland will qualify…

SpirK
Guest
SpirK

After your review and what I have seen here is my prediction: – Estonia – Russia – Greece – Armenia – Hungary – Georgia – Belgium – Albania – Romania – Serbia/Denmark I thought Belarus would be a qualifier instead of Serbia but they won’t get the reception from the juries or the crowd. I hope that the juries will mark down Finland. Moldova has no chance of making it. The Netherlands falls too bland like Belarus, and the staging of FYR Macedonia just destroys all the song. I think the first 9 mentioned are near to certain, but I… Read more »

Steve Gray
Guest
Steve Gray

Can’t Believe this my favorite song if Semi Final 1 is the Netherlands by far be such a shame if they don’t qualify .

This is my opinion (TIMO)
Guest
This is my opinion (TIMO)

Russia is serious ccontender but estonia and Georgia NAH, they are overrated fleshy fakes

John
Guest
John

Good, Netherlands shouldn’t qualify with the trainwreck of a song.

Fatima
Guest
Fatima

I hate to say it but I hope the Serbian song does not qualify because it re-inforces a stereotypical view of songs in the contest

Darren
Guest
Darren

I’d like to see the Netherlands qualify, Walk Along is not the best of the year, but it is still a good song. I dont think Hungary will make it, the song just doesn’t do anything for me, even though the message is good. Russia will definitely win this semi final, we have Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, and Belarus…its guaranteed. I dont think Greece deserve to qualify this year, they are playing it safe, she has a brilliant voice but it sounds no different other songs this year and other songs of the past, if there is a shock non-qualifier this… Read more »

Jerome
Guest
Jerome

Predicted qualifiers (in order of draw):
Armenia
Belgium
Greece
Estonia
Serbia
Russia
Albania
Romania
Georgia
The last spot is a tie between Finland, Hungary, Belarus and Denmark.
I guess we’ll all see in a few hours.

Jak
Guest

I feel sort of upset for the Netherlands and feel the darkness behind the selection or Trijntje: Anouk (my queen) is a person as clever as evilic at all! She has stolen Mrs. Oosterhuis’ place at the Voice, and sounds like using her, as she gave a song kind of crap, in the strange competition between Ilse and Anouk herself. This is why I love her a lot. Anyway, I am REALLY UPSET as a great Dutch fan. I hope it is not like after two years with masterpices of art, songs better than the whole competition, the Netherlands did… Read more »

kblomkvist
Guest
kblomkvist

Estonia out of the whole bunch is the best.
Russia is okay, but a bit self-righteous.
Everything is else underwhelming

Antranig Shokayan
Editor

I hope Serbia does get through – it would be a real shame if she didn’t. Her voice and her message are beautiful!

I hope Loic keeps rising all the way to the top <3

Allen
Guest
Allen

@ Nicki, the whole arena loved Portuguse entry last year and she failed to qualify.

It’s way more important how millions of people who watch vote than what 10.000 people in arena think. That’s just the tiny segment of population who vote.

Leo
Guest
Leo

Putin’s “Petite girl” …..let’s see Russia with Paulina Gagarina (“One Million Voices”) will certainly create the qualification in the first semifinal with ease. Vladimir Putin has already let align that he expects a “decent amount of points.” God’s grace, if this very pretty, “petite girl” does not reach with a typical ESC-song one of the top places in the finals … The best experts of Russia have worked on this song. Composition and text are from 3 different countries! “Building Bridges” in the truest sense of the word. But for me a victory of Russia at the Final, however, is… Read more »

Nicky
Guest
Nicky

No @Joana, you are mistaken. The whole hall will love it. Wait and see the reaction of people tonight.

Allen
Guest
Allen

@Robyn Gallagher, I believe that whole LGBT and other things about Russia are only important for hardcore Eurovision fans.

Robyn Gallagher
Editor

Eugene: “As I have said a few times, I think Russia could win this Semi from Estonia, depending on whether the Western countries are feeling kind.”

Last year the controversy around the treatment of Russia’s LGBT community was fresh in people’s minds from all the negative publicity around the Sochi Winter Olympics. But will people still remember? Or will they be sidetracked by a pretty lady singing and uplifting song?

Marco
Guest
Marco

I hope Hungary will get to the final… They have a very nice song and they are very good singers. Btw I will vote for them.

Joana
Guest
Joana

Nicky… I think you and only a few more love Serbia. I actually hate that song and her style of singing, her clothes…

Nicky
Guest
Nicky

Moldova, Finland, Hungary, Macedonia, Denmark and Belarus will not make it. I wouldn’t give my hand for Romania, Albania and Armenia either. And yes, in the final I can see Russia, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Belgium, Netherlands AND Serbia. I mean those girls… The gothic one from Georgia (uuhhh, so scared), the tearjerker from Greece (**tch, please), Barbie-girl from Russia… non of them can come close to that tsunami charisma Bojana has.

Nebi
Guest
Nebi

I do predict that if there is a shock non qualifier this year it will be Greece.

Mario My Vision of Gay Love
Guest
Mario My Vision of Gay Love

@ Yes *Allen*…I agree on that though..
The level of this year’s Vision overall is NOT bad at all…It is descent enough…Compared with plenty/several other different years of the past mainly generally there are better songs in Vienna..

The main disadvantage negative issue with the 60th Vision IS….We do not have many songs that stand out as great ones or winning material ones as we had the other years on past Visions…

We do not have many songs that are bad as we had on the other Visions..

So this 2015 Euro Vision in generall has positive impact <3 🙂

Nebi
Guest
Nebi

I don’t understand some of the focus on the who wins the semi. It’s the bottom not the top that matters: who goes through and who doesn’t. I have no prediction on the bubble countries but really hope Hungary, Denmark and Netherlands make it. The only countries I hope don’t are Finland, Moldova and maybe Belarus. I can’t pick out six countries that don’t deserve to be in the final this year.

Nicky
Guest
Nicky

Guys, seriously, Serbia won’t qualify? Wait and see. Not only that she will qualify but she goes to top 10 in final.
And Trijntje simply must! I will vote for her 20 times if needed! 😀

Allen
Guest
Allen

This year is so hard. I don’t know why people complain, I think songs are very good and we almost don’t have a single joke-gimmick entry this year. I actually think Russia can win the whole thing. This song was not even in my top 10, but now it got stuck in my mind. And betting odds are changing all the time and Russia is close to be 3rd there. I don’t think juries in Western Europe will ignore Russia. I mean, Conchita won last year with a very high marks from the West and mixed marks from the East.… Read more »

Mario My Vision of Gay Love
Guest
Mario My Vision of Gay Love

I really do not think that we will gonna witness any song from the 1st SF to win the whole Diamond Vision of Vienna though..
I do not expect neither Russia or Estonia or Georgia to win on Saturday..

We will either see either Italy,Sweden or Australia as eventual winners of the 60th Vision….Will be one of these 3..

Nebi
Guest
Nebi

Chris, I think we should can the PC crap…there is a lot of doubt whether Finland gets through. From what I understand they only won UMK due to a combination of constant promotion within the Finnish press and an underground prankster voter movement. Neither of those are present European-wide. Since Finland can’t vote for their own country even the original prankster movement is nullified. If the group sang something like Denmark’s entry then perhaps voters would rally around them and the whole backstory. Instead they’re singing a dark, ugly song that frankly creeps a lot of people out. You don’t… Read more »

Mario My Vision of Gay Love
Guest
Mario My Vision of Gay Love

The song of Russia is better than the song of Estonia…
At least Polina’s song has highlights & its more joyful & entairtaining to listen to than the estonian that althoug very nice song of course its too slow & kinda boring with no real highlights..
I have Russia’s song as my 6th most liked song on the SF & my 12th most liked overall when i have Estonia’s as my 9th most liked song on the SF & my 20th most liked overall..

Ozzy
Guest
Ozzy

Am I the only one who doesn’t get how these odds work?

Eugene ESC UK
Guest

As I have said a few times, I think Russia could win this Semi from Estonia, depending on whether the Western countries are feeling kind. I have no doubt that the juries will place Russia top after seeing both staging. In the final these positions could be reversed. Still plenty of time for things to change, but at the moment these are contenders, but neither may not be the eventual winner.

Mario My Vision of Gay Love
Guest
Mario My Vision of Gay Love

@ Well i do not think that Serbia is total outsider to qualify…Like give me a break…Bojana has real chances to qualify even you would not consider her hot favorite 4 the qualification…I want to believe that Serbia is the dark horse of the 1st SF to qualify.. Holland too is not completely dead for its chance to pass… Personally im gonna support tonight with my 20 votes my favorite songs that i fear & worry that they will might not gonna qualify possibly.. Like Serbia & Hungary…I will not vote my #1 favorite Georgia with too many votes as… Read more »

Erin
Guest
Erin

Netherlands and Hungary will qualify because they’re on a roll with regard to the contest over the past couple of years and not because their song choice is particularly overwhelming. There was plenty of anticipation back in December when it was announced that Trijntje would represent the Netherlands, but ever since the song was released, it was received with mixed feelings. If a rather unknown Dutch singer had performed it, it wouldn’t have passed the semis…and the reason Boggie will qualify is because she captures an overrighteous sense of a politically correct moral compass.

David
Guest
David

I believe Netherlands will qualify. In a field with many ballads.. Walk along is a good pop song.

D
Guest
D

I think Finland will qualify instead of either Belarus or Hungary, and Albania might be the shock non-qualifier with Denmark taking their place in the final. Serbia, Netherlands, Macedonia, and Moldova are all 100% non-qualifiers in my opinion. This semi is much easier to predict than the other one I think.

Mario My Vision of Gay Love
Guest
Mario My Vision of Gay Love

Yes i personally think & predict that the lovely Polina GayGayRina of GreAtY Almighty Bear Russia will gonna win the 1st SF tonight 🙂 Estonia is expected to finsh 2nd Runner up… The warrior Nina of Georgia that has my #1 most favorite song of all the 40 on this year’s Diamond Vision of Vienna will finish 3rd… About the 4th-5th-6th-7th places the hot favorites are Albania,Greece,Romania & Belgium.. The wonderful GeneAologY of Armenia then comes 8th.. I want to believe that Hungary & Serbia will manage to get the last 2 tickets 4 the final…I will be just very… Read more »

AndreaES
Guest
AndreaES

Dislike this Greece or Albania will win first semi final!

Alex
Guest
Alex

Serbia will qualify instead of Belarus and FYR Macedonia might qualify instead of Finland.

Poor Netherlands and Trijntje. it would be a shame if she does not qualify.