During last night’s jury final for semi final 1, betting agencies had their ears to the ground (and, in all likelihood, a direct line to some of the jurors). Following the show they have revised their betting odds for who will win tonight’s first semi final. You can read the highlights and see the full oddstables for who will win and who will qualify below.
Semi final 1 Betting odds: Who will win?
Russia’s Polina Gagarina remains the bookies favourite to win the first semi. Hours before the jury final she was already the bookies’ favourite with odds of 4/5 at a number of betting agencies. After the jury final her odds narrowed slightly, dropping to 4/6 at some betting houses. Russia has brought its A-game vocally and visually. Even with a somewhat out-of-place drummer who goes all hand-clappy during the bridge, this remains a major contender.
But Mother Russia faces a major threat from Estonia. Elina & Stig — who the bookies have held up as a favourite since January — gave an emotional performance on Monday evening. Elina’s eyes seemed to water and she absolutely smouldered. Their pared back LEDs are simple and stirring, and a nice contrast to Russia’s over-the-top explosion of lights. And while they remain second-most-likely-to-win, their odds have widened since the jury show. 888sport moved them from 9/4 before the show to 3/1 afterwards. BETVICTOR moved them from 9/4 to 11/4.
A large gap opens up on the oddstable after that, with Georgia’s Nina Sublatti sitting as third favourite. She’s in the same position as she was before the jury final, but her odds have widened slightly at some agencies. BET365 had her down at 12/1 before the show, while BETVICTOR had her at 10/1. Following the show she had widened to 16/1 and 12/1 respectively.
Following the jury show Belgium’s Loic Nottet has climbed from sixth favourite to fourth favourite, surpassing Albania’s Elhaida Dani and Finland’s PKN in the process. Romania’s Voltaj has done well, jumping from seventh favourite to fifth.
Here’s the full table.
Semi final 1: Odds to qualify
Those are, of course, the odds to win the semi-final. The bookies run a separate table for who will actually qualify.
At the moment they belive the following 10 acts are the most likely to make it through: Russia, Estonia, Romania, Greece, Georgia, Armenia, Belgium, Albania, Belarus, and Hungary. That means Denmark, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Serbia, Moldova and the Netherlands are out.
Prior to the jury final they had Finland as more likely to qualify than Hungary.
Semi final 1: Jury final review
Photo: Eurovision.tv (EBU)