For a little while last night, between the announcement of the Second Semi-final results and that of the running order as decided by the show producers, Eurovision odds shifted like there was no tomorrow. Israel shortened and advanced to the edge of Top 10, while Cyprus jumped to 14th. Russia edged out Italy (again) and Ireland, who failed to qualify for the final, was still ahead of Armenia half an hour after the 10 qualifiers werre announced. You could feel the confusion and panic buying just by looking at the odds table.
But that was last night and today things have quieted down. As of 10:00 CET this morning, this is how the Eurovision odds scoreboard looked like.
Let’s break it down, shall we?
Måns Zelmerlöw doesn’t budge from the top
Sweden’s Måns Zelmerlöw looks set to win tomorrow night with “Heroes”. After an amazing performance and a great response from the crowd in Wiener Stadthalle, he sailed through to the final and remains the most solid candidate for the title of Eurovision 2015 winner. Love it or hate it, looks like we’re back to Scandinavia next year.
Il Volo fights it out with Polina Gagarina for second place
Italy’s Il Volo have not yet performed, but they are still second favourites to win. For now at least. In the days since the First Semi-final, Polina Gagarina has been giving them a run for their money, edging them out a couple of times. It remains to be seen who will top whom on Saturday night! If you’re asking us, our money is on the Italians. Despite the fact that they will perform dead last on the night, it’s not over till the popera trio sings — quite literally!
Belgium’s Loïc Nottet is the biggest mover
As you can see on the chart, there is a blue line for Belgium, which can only mean one thing: Loïc Nottet’s “Rhythm Inside” is moving up-up-up! Now he sits on fifth place in the odds, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the Belgian singer passed Australia’s Guy Sebastian by the end of the day. Loïc’s modern performance and sound, which have brought him almost 1 million views on the official Youtube video, are likely to surprise us all.
Update: As we predicted, Belgium is now (at 1:00 PM) fourth in the odds!
Aminata injected Latvia into Top 10, set to soar even more
While Estonia, Serbia, Norway and Azerbaijan are all in the red, Latvia’s Aminata has more blue than red, which means that her song “Love Injected” is more than likely to advance even further on the scorebard, also thanks to a great spot in the final: 19. Expect the small Baltic country to shorten even more as we get close to Saturday night.
As for the rest of the table, we notice that Slovenia’s running order has hurt its chances and is now likely to be passed by Spain. After the initial enthousiasm for “Golden Boy”‘s qualification quieted down, Israel fell to 13th. Romania was 20th last night but it advanced to 17th after the producers gave it the 20th prime spot. While Cyprus was the cool kid after the semi-final, the running order put him in its place, now standing the 18th chance to win the contest. After receiving the dreaded 2nd running position, France fell out of Top 20, but Germany is the Big 5 biggest loser according to the bookies, who currently placed Ann Sophie 25th. Rounding up the chart, Poland looks very underrated on last place, but we have a feeling that this will not be the case on the actual scoreboard tomorrow night. Her inspiring message of hope has impressed a lot of people, y’all, including our very own David Thielen, who teared up while talking to Monika at the press conference last night.
What do you think about the Eurovision odds ahead of the Grand Final tomorrow? Have you placed any bets? Who is the most likely to beat Måns? Who is overrated and who do you think is underrated by the bookies? Sound off below!
Photo: Thomas Hanses (EBU)
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has declared Monday a public holiday if Australia wins tonight. That public holiday could happen.
You must be the only person on planet Earth, and possibly beyond, who thinks ‘Love Injected’ is a copy of ‘Euphoria’. So maybe you should keep that opinion to yourself, it’s quite embarassing, really… All the best!
Lercy: Latviassong is NOT original. Its a copy of Euphoria. And Måns are NOT homofobiq. You dont now him, i do. Russia is homofobiq, and lovemaking war. If Russia going to winn, its be a hell next year. Russia, Azerbaijdjan and Ukrain have been in topp 5 the last 10 years, why did you not screme at them, no no this contrys are from Russia.
Still worth a punt on Poland, I reckon – great odds!
Same scenario with Austria right after the semi-finals finished last year. Looks like Sweden is set to win(unless marked down by juries of course). Belgium will be either winner or runner-up. Some of these betters are probably the vote counters for ESC hmm….
Rome 2016! <3 <3 <3
Norway = winner
Latvia = my winner
I really hope that Latvia will win. The song is original and the girl seems authentic and true. Her voice is extremely strong! Or else Spain. I don’t think Sweden, Belgium or Russia should win. The guy from Sweden is homophobic and fake, the song from Belgium is a copy of Lorde’s Royals and Russia…well the message is so fake. The girl is sponsored by Poetin. So need I say more? I truly hope Europe will vote for originality and someone who seems to be authentic. But we will see. My vote goes to Latvia or maybe Spain (amazing song… Read more »
I think in some way it’s a disadvantage that the big 5 get to perform only in the final. Everyone already speaking about favourites but they haven’t even seen Italy’s performance. Of course Russia will rise and so will Belgium etc But as in sports, the bookies favorites , not always win.
Today Mans’ anti-gay statement from last year got back in the media. I don’t know it will influence the voting tomorrow. We’ll see…
I’m rooting for Loïc from Belgium, though. Good song, voice and such a sweetheart and a real artist! <3 <3 <3
Odds shortening indicates that more money is being placed on an act (e.g.Belgium) therefore a smaller return on your stake will be expected if your bet wins. This is good in terms of the chance of you being right and winning your bet, but bad in terms of your potential return. Odds drifting is basically the opposite of this, the chance of winning is seen less likely (e.g Estonia) and higher odds become available.
Best value bet is spain to finish higher than France at 1.75 (8/14). Incredible high odds considering running order,form and quality of the songs.
ESC 2016 Bucharest
I think Belgium is for the younger part of the audience. It won’t appeal to all ages.
Latvia is now 9th in odds. Keep raising, queen!
Someone please tell me which is good – when odds are shortening or when odds are drifting?
I’m hoping for Russia or Belgium, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sweden really made it. I’d say these three are the hottest ones. Italy will probably be in top 5, but I don’t see the guys as winners.
It’s quite clear to me that Belgium and even Russia have some momentum going into tomorrow. My instincts tell me it will be down to the performances for the top 5 of the bookies. Not convinced Sweden will win yet. Anyway, enjoy the final everyone! It could be a horse race to the finish.
I really don’t like Russia and Italy. Also i don’t think that Belgium and Sweden are anything special… I really hope none of these countries win. My top 5 is:
My TOP 5: 1. Norway, 2. Latvia, 3. Sweden, 4. Slovenia, 5. Estonia
I didn’t think Man’s performance was as good as in Melfest. For instance, some of the camera angles broke the illusion of his screen, and there were a couple places where he was off with the graphics. Also, his lyrics were not as strong. I’m really angry that the producers but Norway and Sweden back to back–I really thought they slayed in their semi. Thankfully, they perform before Mans, so I think they still have a good chance. Everyone says that Sweden will win every year. It’s not lie that they always send a quality song! But in a year… Read more »
Belgium now 4/1.
Russia, Italy and Belgium vying for 2nd with the bookies.
It really could be Belgium 2016.
I’m excited because Eurovision hasn’t been to Belgium in nearly 30 years.
Russia 70% chance of winning
Sweden 30% chance of winning
other 25 countries 0% chance of winning
My top six, let’s see
It’s so nice to read all these comments about the Belgian song, I really hope we will have a chance to win tomorrow. I don’t think we actually will win the contest (sadly) but I hope at least for a place in top 10.
Message to everybody who love Belgium: vote as much as you can for number 13!!!!
Top 4 in no particular order:
The favourites just do not do it for me. I really do not like Italy and Russia. Hoping for Georgia or Azerbaijan to spring the surprise!
It’s very simple as far as Belgium is concerned. They were 50/1 yesterday, they were 16/1 at 8am this morning. 1 hour later, they were 6/1. There really is no telling what odds they’ll have tomorrow morning. They could well be top 3 tomorrow.
As it stands, I think this is the top 6 tomorrow.
I believe Loic can do it <3 Keep on going <3333
Sweden has the best song.. and will win
I checked the odds just a moment ago btw. Russia is second with shortening odds and Sweden seem to be drifting and drifting. That monster lead is no more?
I don’t know how to read the odds. But I’ve learned that blue stands for shorter odds. And red means the odds are drifting. So.. my guess is that Russia will be on first place soon? Are they closing in on Sweden? And Belgium keeps rising. Who knows how far they will go with the bookies. All the way up? Italy has not yet perfomed so they don’t do too well at the moment?
I would love Belgium or Estonia to win, but I wouldn’t mind Sweden taking the crown. Just as long as it’s not Russia or Italy I’ll be happy.
Well Hungary is rising as well.Slowly but steady. Now is in 19th place.When the whole competition started it was near bottom.With the 22nd running order and that stunning stage image and presentation, this beautiful simple song, what was seen cynical could surprise again.Now I see top 10-15 for Hungary.When ByAlex was 10th he was tipped 17th on the odds.So GO HUNGARY
W I N N E R of the Eurovision 2015 is either Belgium’s Loic OR Georgia’s Nina Both wrote their own songs , both have way more talent in their pinkies than all the others combined . Sweden stole the melody from David Guetta and anyone with clear ears can hear that , shame on them . It’s pathetic how Russians are singing about love and million voices when they have military invaded the half of Europe , Polina is great at acting sweet and innocent but it’s not going to work ! Australia’s guy sebsatian has a good song… Read more »
Belgium sing at spot 13 in running order. They only won one in 1986, when they sang at spot 13 in final
LOIC KEEP ON RISING <3
I have a feeling Belgium is going to win 🙂 Yayy go Belgium and Armenia !!
Poland finishing last? hahaha
there’s no way she’s gonna came in 27th, I’d say she’ll be somewhere in top 15.
Let’s go Latvia!
Of course Italy will win. Placing them last is almost like statement LOL. People don’t want another swedish win, it’s been pretty obvious. And it’s not because Sweden is bad it’s because it’s Sweden. And Russia probobly won’t win because it’s Russia singing about peace. All signs says Italy.
“Last year the winner was “a woman with a beard”. Now it will be normal women from (normal) Russia.”
lmao when is Eurovision ever normal? Get out of here. You can take your normal Russia with you if you prefer to be closed minded.
In a year with many possible winners, you need to have a gimmick or a special performance, not just a good song. That’s why I still think Sweden’s probably going to win, regardless that everyone here hates it. You know, we hardcore-fans are such a small percent of all the millions of people watching at home, and most of the people watching Måns performance for the first time will be more or less be blowned away by it.
Well Sweden is not the clear hot favorite…Its still not that predictable…
There is Italy…There is Australia…And we will see if another country will make the great difference & might surprise us with winning the trophy..
1. NORWAY <3
I’m so happy for Belgium. It is such a fresh and unique song in terms of Eurovision’s style. It seems it is a dark horse. I’m pleased with this TOP10, except Serbia. That song is kitsch, like from 2008. I predict Poland to be higher (I hope she will sing a bit better than yesterday, because her song is really great) andf France to be much higher. The French song is still underrated.
I think that Sweden and Russia are not be the winner of Eurovision 2015.I predict that winner wili be Azerbaijan suprise winner like 2011, Italy, Estonia .
Dark horse for win Belgium, Serbia, Norway.
My TOP 6