With a quarter of the field known for Eurovision 2016 and a whole host of national selections underway, we thought it was the right time to start looking at the odds to win Eurovision. Last year saw the likes of Estonia and Finland lead the way early on, so we know the bookies can get it wrong. The bookmakers quickly corrected themselves, though, with Italy and then Sweden emerging as the favourites, with Måns Zelmerlöw practically untouchable from then on. With the handy oddschecker.com as our guide, here’s what the bookmakers are saying now.


Eurovision 2016 Odds: February 22, 2016

Eurovision 2016 odds first update 22nd feb

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Poland a surprise favourite

How’s this for a surprise: Poland are currently the bookmakers favourite to win Eurovision 2016. The odds have been narrowing on Poland ever since the release of Margaret’s “Cool Me Down” last week. As of Friday, Poland were in third with odds of 10-1, but these have continued to fall. Three bookmakers currently have them as 7-2 favourites. Of course, this is all dependent on Poland actually choosing Margaret to win Krajowe Eliminacje 2016, which is far from guaranteed.

Russia, Sweden in the hunt

Never a real surprise, but there’s obviously a lot of market confidence in the big powerhouses of Russia and Sweden. Sergev Lazarev’s star quality will obviously mean that Russia will pick up a lot of points. The market does not seem to have reacted much to the change in the points system, but Sergey will surely draw a lot of televotes at the very least. He’s currently the second favourite at 9/2 and had been leading by a relatively large margin, until Poland’s surge.

The market for Sweden usually only shifts post-Melodifestivalen. The fact that they are second favourites (in some places as low as 4/1) — despite being the host nation — shows that there is respect for the Melfest field. Christer Bjorkman believes they can win it again and there’s obviously a belief that they can do it twice in a row. Much like with Poland, Latvia are a surprise factor in the top group of songs too. There’s an obvious feeling that Justs’ “Hearbeat” is a strong contender, even if his victory in Latvia (while likely) is not guaranteed.

Greta and Jamala not up at the top

Fan favourite Greta Salóme won in Iceland with her beautifully-staged “Hear Them Calling” on Saturday. We were wetting ourselves with excitement, but the bookies seem a bit more subdued. Her odds have yet to shift at either 33-1 or 40-1, putting her around 20th in the odds.

Ukraine’s Jamala had us similarly excited on Sunday night and things looks slightly better for her. The best odds for Ukraine sit at 16-1, though they go as low as 12-1. This would tie them with Latvia in 6th/7th. We’ll obviously be keeping an eye out in case they continue to fall.

Do you think that Poland deserves the hype? Or are we just waiting for another song to snatch top spot? Let us know in the comments and remember to tweet us as well!

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[…] Margaret finished second to Michal Szpak in the Polish national selection show earlier this spring after being the hot favorite to win with oddsmakers and Eurovision fans alike.  When she unveiled her single “Cool Me Down”, Poland shot to the top of the pack and became the bookies’ overall favorite to win Eurovision 2016. […]

George
Guest
George

Serbia’ s the best.A real artist.The song is beautiful, very difficult but her voice and performance are just amazing!Sadly, real artists never win but only chippendales like Sergei who shows his muscles, ass…
And what about the song?Where are lyrics, melody?Even children don’t listen this kind of “music”.(Nothing against Russia), but what I said is sad but true( on my own of course).Good luck to all countries and 12 pts go to
Serbia from France!

Norayr
Guest
Norayr

Dear friends,pay attention that Armenia is ranking the best after 2 rehearsals in Stogholm,so forget about the others.

auto Heidi
Guest

Perfect for writing.

Same
Guest
Same

Alexander ur comments rock! :)))

Sebastiaan
Guest
Sebastiaan

My Top is:
1. RUSSIA (12 points from Belgium !)
2. Australia
3. Croatia
4. Poland
5. Norway
(I really loooove these 5)
also I really don’t like Sweden (so cheap), Belgium (she can’t sing especially live) and Hungary (shouting guy with terrible voice and song)

O K
Guest
O K

My personal top is:
1. Australia / 2. France / 3.Latvia / 4. UK
but …its all about politics in this contest…

dado
Guest
dado

she won on the Croatian The Voice last year…
listen her amazing voice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKCizY2M1no&index=2&list=PLXjCgWY1SENhdbwg4cvq3u1nsdpiywrff

Frank Musters
Guest
Frank Musters

I dont,t understand that for example Margaret from Polen is in the polls for victory for this year’s Eurovision and she is not chosen yet by the Polish people. But you can change your poll because Michal Szpak is going to Stockholm for Polen this year.

sonic0201
Guest
sonic0201

Don’t know the other contenders from Poland, but that Margaret song would definitely flop at the Eurovision. Just a generic commercial sh*t, nothing special. Not sure if even Beyonce or Rihanna would win the contest with it LOL

Anna
Guest
Anna

12 points go to Justs from Latvia!

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

@oxyk After reading all that, you slightly overweight angry little person, I hope you realize that you’re full of ****. Politics have no place in Eurovision. No one here wants to read about your cries about Russia doing what is right for ethnic Russians by protecting them from neo-nazi corrupt Kiev regime, but since you have nothing else to talk about here but this, I felt obliged to respond. Anyway, I’m going to Moscow when my uni break starts this summer, and then I’m off to the beautiful Russian Crimea to relax on those beautiful Russian beaches with friends 🙂… Read more »

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

” I would not expect many points to Russia from neighbors, as everyone mad at them this way or another (grave enemies – Moldova, Georgia, 3 Baltic states, Azerbaijan, Ukraine ” Funny that you say that, because last year Azerbaijan gave their maximum 12 points to Russia (just so you know, and another 12 points in 2014) Estonia awarded 12 points to Russia last year, Latvia gave them 10 (so did they in 2014) so did Moldova, and if it wasn’t for the combined judging “overrule” – Russia would have received 8 from Lithuania for televoting alone. As for Ukraine,… Read more »

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

@oxyk
You seem really angry, but we all know that the only reason Ukraine gets some points (sometimes) is because of all your illegal prostitute immigrants voting for their pathetic own selves.
No one has any reason to like Ukraine. Its a poor Chernobyl wasteland that exports AIDS
Russia on the other hand is admired and looked up to by many
3 of my friends have already decided they will vote for Russia, even prior to hearing their song, so it will humiliate you once more 🙂

Marcus
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Marcus

12 points from Netherlands to Poland very beautiful song Margaret.

oxyk
Guest
oxyk

@Alexander
“0 points to Ukraine LOL” – do Brits really enjoy old jokes like you do? 0 points to Ukraine from UK is called stability. But who’s really smile at the end of the phrase is the reader. Because even with 0 points from UK every year Ukraine does alright. Thank you reminding about our outstanding acts that need no support from Brits to be top acts. Have a good day 🙂 When your country will win ESC? will it help if Ukraine will give you 12 points this year? or it’s useless to waste our points again?

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

Good luck to Russia and Poland!
12 points to Russia from the UK
0 points to Ukraine LOL

oxyk
Guest
oxyk

@V saying that Ukrainians is rusophobic is equal to admitting that Russian are playing “I’m a victim” game again. They killed people I knew in this war, young guys who had bad luck to serve on Russian-Ukrainian border (Russian artillery shelled them from Russian territory in attempt to penetrate and start the invasion of regular Russian troops in Donbass, only DNA results of scattered remains allowed to relatives bury their sons). Downed helicopters with our guys, funerals of kids who’s younger than me… do you think it’s just a phobia, or maybe I hate Russian pigs for a REASON? Clearly… Read more »

?otkaloryzjorlajf
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?otkaloryzjorlajf

@jacob Margaret has nice live voice to. It’s obvious that you don’t sing on concert exactly the same as at the Eurovision

V
Guest
V

In 2015.

V
Guest
V

Oxyk, you’re so russophobic (don’t deny it). Just look at the countries’ televoting in 2016.

oxyk
Guest
oxyk

@Jess, we have a war with Russia, they kill our people almost every day. yes, Lazarev is famous and popular, but every Ukrainian will ask himself before giving him a vote – is it ok to support these Russian murderers? most Ukrainians will sigh and vote for someone else. I know that I won’t vote for him no matter how good his song would be. I don’t want to have a feeling that I’m a traitor of my country and siding with an enemy even in song contest.

oxyk
Guest
oxyk

@Jess, despite Russian propaganda, in fact native Russians in Ukraine is minority (17% of population as per polls), now deduct utterly “Russian” Crimea and Donbass (who will be restricted from voting), then pay attention to Russian speaking Ukrainians who hate Russia (at the moment 60% of servicemen in Ukrainian army are Russian speaking Ukrainians and Russian minority who defend Ukraine). note last poll results about attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians – 75% of population hate them or dislike. as you can see there’s not that much supporters, if Russia will get 3-4 points from Ukraine it will be a miracle.… Read more »

Jocelyn
Guest

I don’t understand why there’s so much hype behind Poland’s entry. “Cool Me Down” is nothing but a repetitive, cocky mess.

Jess
Guest
Jess

@oxyk But you forgotted that in Ukraine lives a lot of Russians who will vote for Russia (Harkiv). Azerbaijan will give at least 10 to Russia (not to Armenia sure) and 12 to some little country. Armenia will give 8,10 or 12,and Georgia gave to Russia in 2015 5 points,so. In Latvia there also lives a lot of Russians. Estonia will vote for it,I just don’t know about Lithuania. Sergey is populat outside of Russia so sure he will get some points from Germany,Moldova,Serbia,etc. Maybe Australia and Sweden too.
And don’t forget,Sergey is popular in Ukraine ????

Matt
Guest
Matt

haha don’t write off Molly Sanden taking it home for Sweden two years in a row. Youniverse is an epic song.

My favourite so far is Iceland by a mile. Can’t understand the betting odds, but i guess that the general public aren’t at all interested yet and its only massive ESC fans placing their bets so maybe Iceland will rise as the general public gets to see her. It sounds like Of Monsters and Men and they are hugely successful.

oxyk
Guest
oxyk

@Jess, I would not expect many points to Russia from neighbors, as everyone mad at them this way or another (grave enemies – Moldova, Georgia, 3 Baltic states, Azerbaijan, Ukraine – for bullying and for war on their land), Asian countries will more likely prefer asian neighbor to upvote. Who Russia can count on is Armenia and Belarus. not much to benefit from. this year is different, when Russian currency lost it’s value it took heavy toll on all neighbors (except Ukraine – we’ve had this issue last year due to war on our land, now our currency stable low).… Read more »

Jess
Guest
Jess

Cool me down is nice song for listening in club,but not to win Eurovision.Russia will be definitly in Top 3,Sergey is huge star,he’s hot (lgbt will like him),he won’t have song about peace and he has dream team working with him. I think we can except from Russia like some mix of Ani Lorak’s ‘Shady Lady’ (Kirkorov) and his own song Eto Vse Ona or 7 wonders,what would place really good at Eurovision. I don’t think Poland ending in Top 3,maybe in Top 10 yes. But I hope more they send Edyta Gorniak,Margaret’s song is something upbeat like Mans’ Heroes… Read more »

mick
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mick

Polen får gärna vinna, så länge inte Ryssland gör det.

Mike
Guest
Mike

SERGEY, not Sergev! He is huuuuuuuuge star in Russia! Massive. But Margaret is much better.

AurelianTamisan
Guest
AurelianTamisan

What about Moment of Silence from Romania? I think we should see them higher in the odds with such a song in the na?ional contest.

Rob
Guest

Poland was initially quoted by Betfred at 66-1, then it was cut to 33-1, then it was cut to 10-1. The initial betting heat around Poland was down to the Edyta video clip of her song; then Margaret’s song was released which generated even more betting interest in Poland.

It is still very early days and for a better indication of the current state of play, have a look at Betfair’s ESC 2016 Outright market: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/special-bets/market/1.121834194

David Who
Guest
David Who

@cheescake – I agree with you. An Eastern victory. I have already been reading up on laws for those countries in preparation for going to one of them in 2017! 😀

cheesecake
Guest
cheesecake

I believe we might be heading to Eastern Europe in 2017 (Latvia, Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Poland, Ukraine, Hungary, …?)

oxyk
Guest
oxyk

@Racal, Lazarev is well known in Russia and neighbor countries for many years, when he does not sing, he works as a host or jury member in Ukrainian show for talents, or for other shows on Russian TV – he’s always on the screen this way or another. Does it makes him popular as a star? I doubt it. As a person who value the meaning of lyrics, the message of song, I can’t recall even single of his song with lyrics that was worth my attention. repeating “I’ve lost my mind, I’m going blind, Oh my love” or cheesy… Read more »

MGR
Guest
MGR

Margaret has only rich family, and nothing more! Average appearance, weak vocal, low intelligence and very weak song! She has no chance in Polish selections against Micha? Szpak (Starling)!

@EugeneESCUK
Guest

What happens with Poland depends on the live performances and with Margaret what will the juries think?……………….They might have a real dilemma, “Cool me down” is not exactly a songwriting masterpiece in composition (music and lyrics wise.) Could be interesting?

Yes Jacob even if your bet comes 2nd, you lose, (unless you bet each way.)

jacob
Guest
jacob

And geez, who would bet on Sweden? It is obvious that they won’t win two times in a row!

jacob
Guest
jacob

I am from Poland myself and I would love Margaret to win, but I’m anxious with her live vocals – they aren’t her biggest asset!

Racal
Guest
Racal

Sergev Lazarev dancing shirtless in a tacky video, that reminds me of all the cheap boys bands from the 90s in Western Europe (and that’s not a good thing). Is that guy really a star in Russia? Like, seriously?

Mr.D
Guest
Mr.D

Poland is not first thanks Margaret. Loool

fikri
Guest
fikri

australia is doing pretty good in the bookies… and there has been no news from them so far!

Ronnie
Guest
Ronnie

So far the only song that has any top 10 potential is Cyprus. I’m sorry but Ukraine is just not that good this. If Poland sends this they will surely do well but not sure if this is a winner. In my opinion the main battle for the title is going to be between: Russia – Sergey is well known, will surely have a great team behind him and with Russia coming so close last year, this could be their year. Armenia – A friend of mine has actually heard the Armenian song (works at AMPTV) swears it is going… Read more »

Dripe
Guest
Dripe

Ukraine, Latvia and Sweden should fight for the main title (from what we see so far).

Victoria
Guest
Victoria

If Poland sends Cool me down, they will win it all. Cool song!

mocosuburbian
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mocosuburbian

a polish win would be interesting to see
secretly hoping for a southern european country though

Adam
Guest
Adam

Margaret’s good but I’m not sure why she’s leading in 1st. Obviously Russia and Sweden are always gonna be at the top no matter what so there’s that bias. Germany? Really? I don’t see why they should be even near the top 10. And of course Australia same as Russia/Sweden. We know nothing of their song at all but its still in the top. Latvia deserves to be higher and so does Ukraine, but most of those in the top don’t even have entries yet. Most of the picked entries are all down in the bottom 15. Bookies at this… Read more »

PP
Guest
PP

How Margaret sound live.

Katy
Guest
Katy

Well with the televote having more power than before, Poland can surely do well with this song.

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

It is far too early.