With a quarter of the field known for Eurovision 2016 and a whole host of national selections underway, we thought it was the right time to start looking at the odds to win Eurovision. Last year saw the likes of Estonia and Finland lead the way early on, so we know the bookies can get it wrong. The bookmakers quickly corrected themselves, though, with Italy and then Sweden emerging as the favourites, with Måns Zelmerlöw practically untouchable from then on. With the handy oddschecker.com as our guide, here’s what the bookmakers are saying now.
Eurovision 2016 Odds: February 22, 2016
Poland a surprise favourite
How’s this for a surprise: Poland are currently the bookmakers favourite to win Eurovision 2016. The odds have been narrowing on Poland ever since the release of Margaret’s “Cool Me Down” last week. As of Friday, Poland were in third with odds of 10-1, but these have continued to fall. Three bookmakers currently have them as 7-2 favourites. Of course, this is all dependent on Poland actually choosing Margaret to win Krajowe Eliminacje 2016, which is far from guaranteed.
Russia, Sweden in the hunt
Never a real surprise, but there’s obviously a lot of market confidence in the big powerhouses of Russia and Sweden. Sergev Lazarev’s star quality will obviously mean that Russia will pick up a lot of points. The market does not seem to have reacted much to the change in the points system, but Sergey will surely draw a lot of televotes at the very least. He’s currently the second favourite at 9/2 and had been leading by a relatively large margin, until Poland’s surge.
The market for Sweden usually only shifts post-Melodifestivalen. The fact that they are second favourites (in some places as low as 4/1) — despite being the host nation — shows that there is respect for the Melfest field. Christer Bjorkman believes they can win it again and there’s obviously a belief that they can do it twice in a row. Much like with Poland, Latvia are a surprise factor in the top group of songs too. There’s an obvious feeling that Justs’ “Hearbeat” is a strong contender, even if his victory in Latvia (while likely) is not guaranteed.
Greta and Jamala not up at the top
Fan favourite Greta Salóme won in Iceland with her beautifully-staged “Hear Them Calling” on Saturday. We were wetting ourselves with excitement, but the bookies seem a bit more subdued. Her odds have yet to shift at either 33-1 or 40-1, putting her around 20th in the odds.
Ukraine’s Jamala had us similarly excited on Sunday night and things looks slightly better for her. The best odds for Ukraine sit at 16-1, though they go as low as 12-1. This would tie them with Latvia in 6th/7th. We’ll obviously be keeping an eye out in case they continue to fall.
Do you think that Poland deserves the hype? Or are we just waiting for another song to snatch top spot? Let us know in the comments and remember to tweet us as well!