With the Eurovision 2016 field now nearly complete, the odds have once again shifted as the bookmakers weigh up their options. As always, we’ve been analysing the field for y’all to see just who they think is looking good as we gear up for the preview season. With oddschecker.com as a guide, here are what the Eurovision 2016 odds look like as of March 15 at 22:30 GMT:
Eurovision 2016 Odds: March 15, 2016
Russia overtakes Sweden after Melodifestivalen
Frans helped make Sweden the favourites prior to Melodifestivalen, but the response to his victory has seen Sweden’s odds drift. Whereas last week the best odds for a back-to-back win was 5-2, they now stand at 11-2. One reason for this may have been Frans’ less-than-convincing victory in the Melfest final: whilst he won the televote, he only placed second with the international jury. Loreen and Mans Zelmerlow both topped the televote and jury vote at home prior to winning Eurovision, so is there a fear that this might be an issue down the line for Frans?
As Sweden falters, Sergey Lazarev has finally risen to the top of the odds. After being consistently stuck as second favourite for much of the past month, Russia’s odds have now shortened to 9-4 to make them the favourite. With nearly all songs revealed, Russia may be untouched at the top for some time still.
Croatia and Australia fighting behind
The biggest mover in the past week has been Croatia. “Lighthouse” has certainly charmed many people (including some of our bloggers) and Nina Kraljic’s song has sent Croatia in to the top three. Her best odds are currently 10-1, which could change further depending on the presentation of Nina’s music video. If there’s a definite style, it might hint to what we can expect in Stockholm — and whether Croatia are pushing for victory.
It’s not just Nina doing it for the women in the odds, though. Australia’s Dami Im revealed “Sound of Silence” during the week, again to a good reaction from the bookmakers. Whilst her odds have slightly drifted since, her odds of 12-1 still show the bookmakers give her a shot of victory. Expect the two countries to trade places over the next few weeks as we build up to the event itself.
Faith in Malta’s “Walk on Water”
Whilst a number of other countries have continued to drift further and further from the top four, Malta have reversed that trend. With “Walk on Water” announced as the replacement for “Chameleon” — and the likes of Molly Pettersson-Hammar on the writing team — there’s clearly a belief that this might give Ira Losco a better chance at Eurovision glory again. The same cannot be said for one-time favourites Poland, who have now fallen as far as 50-1 with Michal Szpak not exciting the bookies.
Have you placed your bets yet on an act? Are you surprised to see Russia topping the Eurovision 2016 odds? Let us know in the comments section below or via our Twitter page.
@ ODETTE
Australia is Europeans living in a land called Australia. Does this answer your doubts about the legit participation of Australia in this song contest?
The information regarding odds should not be published as somehow it influences the final result making people believe false things such as Russia has a great song for example. To start with Russia has a crap song, not only is dated and sounds old and bad techno, they also tried to make it trancy and failed. Eurovision rules should not allow odds to be disclosed and the jury should be just down to the public %100. Do you agree?
Love voice of Kaliopi – Dona, Dona Dona …. <3 <3 <3
MY TOP 5 : MACEDONIA, RUSSIA, AUSTRIA, IRELAND, BiH
Still cannot understand how Australia is taking part in this contest; Is it an EUROvision song contest? Or maybe Australia is part of Europe now!
My ideal Eurovision 2016
:)) POLAND :))
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj95aWw1T0E?
My top 3
1.Croatia
2.France
3.Italy
http://esctracker.com/odds
Spain is a bloody fav too!! get it??? so ODDD!!!! lol
And the winner is San Marino.
@Marcus (day one): People just expect Sergey to show his naked torso at the Globen arena … nobody really cares for the song … it’s the strategy of sending a guy who is used to be naked on stage with the hopes of letting all the gays scream orgasmically instead of booing. Do you honestly believe Russia is in this innocently? Hell no!!! Like Azerbaijan in 2012 they want to clean their image from the 2009 edition … pretending nothing we know about them is even true. BS!!!
If Eurovision Song Contest will survive, Russia will have many strong entries in future but 2016 is definitely not their year. Only “experts” totally adicted to odds can believe in it. Last year Russia was not great favorite of odds.
Nina has a fantastic live, I really believe in fenomenal staging with woow factor.
Top 5:
1-Croatia,
2-Latvia,
3-5 Russia, Cyprus, France
Why is it when Russia sends a terrible song every acts like it’s great?
It’s dated and not in a good way.
In fact it reminds me of Miss Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (Germany 2009) but with less energy.
Latvia is dull and boring.
However I would love it if Croatia did win since they are an underdog and the song is really good.
France and Malta would be a deserving winner because both countries so deserve a win.
Or maybe Australia or Lithuania just to shake it up.
Or even the UK XD
Russia and Latvia? Come on, you cannot be serious. Australia? Gets votes because it’s Australia. Great singer, but the song is an unremarkable one. Azerbaijan? Trash pop song, annoying voice. Ukraine? Too negative, politics NO! Poland? Very dated. Malta and Italy? I do not think so.
I still consider Norway and Hungary as major contenders, although, the Hungarian song should be improved (it isn’t catchy enough).
Ellos intentan, quieren MONOPOLIZAR ESC, como lo hacen con la ginmasia deportiva, ginmasia atistica, natacion sicronizada…etc.Ninguneando a otros paises con mucho mas talento artistico que ellos, esto es de una prepotencia que solo se iguala al complejo de inferioridad ,que sienten al competir con paises de la Europa occidental ,y de pensamiento aperturista.Pero ese es se lema AUTOENGAÑO.No se yo si esa Europa aperturista se lo consentiran.
The real countries dont care about winning or losing are the big so called 5…And still we have to bear with biased blocked televoters or even juries marking…The odds are based on those terms: Neighboring voting or diaspora voting…Am only glad for Kaliopi because she will be on the final because on those terms-Never mind that she is a amazing Donna singer…Hopefully Barei and her far 5 back girls will them all a good piece of her talent but then talent is NOT always recognized at the faked ESC.
And the Russian strategy is working … the level of desperation for a victory again to sugar-coat whatever damage the country tried to hide in 2009 now seems to be working … but who the hell would want to win a song contest with such an outdated and boring chorus that recycles Azerbaijan 2013 and every single Swedish bs schalger cheesiness from the 2000s MF? Oh yeah right … Russia would … no matter what or why. And if Sergey is willing to show off his naked torso on stage … I can see EBU using the orgasmic reaction of… Read more »
Tengo una TEORIA, ESC se convertido en el festival de las aliazas vecinales, y realmente la buena musica no se valora de forma objetiva.Una pena
how stupid Lithuania can be a favorite, I don’t understand… Slow down Lithuanian people and learn to be objective
My personal top5: 1.France
2.Armenia
3.Russia
4.Germany
5.Hungary.Without having heard the Italian version of the competition,and the entries of Malta and Bulgaria.
Top5
1Russia 2Lithuania 3Latvia 4Sweden 5Hungary
I think if Sanja Vucic shine in the full light on the stage, Serbia could be that…
My prediction:
1. Serbia or Russia
3. Australia
4. Czech
My Top 5: Czech, Serbia, The Netherlands, Macedonia, France
@azaad
I like Barei and her song, but something tells me they will be near the bottom (Europe tends to not vote Spain, even if their songs are mostly good).
I can see Ukraine being a dark horse, being bold and having a statement which morphs with the Anti-Russian atmosphere in Eurovision, plus It is really a distinctive song and If they could score 4th with Mika Newton they can certainly win with Jamala.
The EBU won’t risk Russia, Belarus or Israel ever winning in the near future. The juries will be told to vote them down. Personally, I’d say Spain look like the likely winners.
@Criticca
What do you mean?
My top 5 so far :
1.Russia,Sergey Lazerev – You are the only one
2.Spain,Barei – Say Yay [I like the final/new version of Say Ya very much]
3.France,Amir – J’ai cherché
4.Italy,Francesca Michielin – Nessun grado di separazione
5.Australia,Dami Im – Sound of Silence
Lighthouse is much more modern than Sergey and definitely better than Frans so I think Croatia stands a chance.Love the song btw
My top 6:
1. Netherlands
2. France
3. Sweden
4. Czech Republic
5. Italy (used to be my first before knowing it would be half in English)
6. Ukraine
I usually rank all the competing entries, but this year most other songs leave me totally empty and indifferent, so I’ll stop here and I hope the winner is one of these 6. The rest is just a bunch of nothing songs, super dull and desperately trying to mimic Heroes (which I didn’t like so much, but was at least well produced and performed).
@Denis, San Marino’s style of song tends to disagree with you on “Frans’ song being the only one in its genre”. Hahahha
Russians this year are behaving like the Armenians did with Aram MP3 in 2014. Really hoping that the international juries don’t listen to betting odds anymore…
For me winner of televoting will be real winner. If jury will vote for odds, Sweden will win, because other strong entries for televoting (Hungary, Cyprus and Malta) have much worse odds. This looks like one big pro-swedish swindle. Everyone sees that Russia has very weak disco similar to weak disco from Estonia in 2011 (Getter Jaani – Rockefeller Street). People like strong disco or not disco (but of course not entries similar to Cascada because it is too shallow).
These odds are extreme pathology.
Looking back at last year, at this time, the order was all over the place. Italy was 1st, Sweden was 6th and Russia was 15th. I do agree that this is early days, and we should not be assuming anything. Odds are just a mechanism for companies to make money. I personally think Russia’s song is terrible, but I mean its obviously going to make a top 3. Sweden (I think) will absolutely flop on the Eurovision stage, and Croatia I actually believe is one of the many contenders for the title. Idk why everyone is trashing it, because if… Read more »
I never said it was original, I said it was current. None of the songs in ESC are original, that’s not a place for originality. Most of the song in the contest are similar to songs you hear on the radio or previously in the contest. This year for instance most of the songs seem to be similar to each-other and similar to Heroes. Oscar Zia would have been part of that too. Frans really is the only one in his genre and none of the songs are like that, so he could be original in that aspect. The song… Read more »
Denis.. I think Frans will do much worse in this competition than the fans of Frans thinks. I don’t the song is very original outside the esc-bubble either. But it is different compared to the usual songs sent to Eurovision. But this time it’s different in a bad way and I think people will consider it dull. But it’s an ok song for radio or Spotify. Eurovision is mostly about catchy songs, rememberable stagings, voice and charisma. Even Björkman don’t know if Frans and the song will work. It’s a bold move. I still believe that Oscar Zia should have… Read more »
DutchGuy
No chance for Iceland, because Greta is not good singer.
Ah, @Denis, you are all over here and on eurovision.tv defending Sweden’s entry with the same exact theory that every Swede now has – that Frans’ song is “original” & it will stand out because it is current. Sometimes, I wonder whether in Sweden they allow you to have a different opinion then the one you all yell about. Frans’ song is a copy-paste song, but that didn’t stop you from winning in 2015. And Sweden in the bookies was first because everyone thought about you sending Molly, not this kid. Once you sent him, the overall response is far… Read more »
Norway, Spain and Iceland can still win with the right performance.
For now i’m expecting Spain or Australia to win.
Don’t underestimate The Netherlands. Although the song isn’t a winning song, staging can do a lot, look at our entry in 2014. The staging plans aren’t public yet but they said that if it all works out the way they want, it will be something completely new for the contest 😀
I see
Australia
Russia
Croatia
But all my best wishes to Sergei! Go & win!
Milla. the reason song does well is because the majority of ESC audience aren’t fans but regular average people whose only knowledge of ESC is that it takes place in Stockholm. They have no clues who the favourites are or who should have won in Poland. The fans are really small minority of the overall audience and aren’t as powerful as we like to think we are. The average audience thinks the song is great. They see things differently. So headlines like “people are laughing at us” doesn’t help because that assumes everyone are fans and knows what’s going on.… Read more »
I like Sergey’s song, but I do not think it’ll pass off for the win. I think the likes of Estonia, Latvia, Germany, and France are worthy of the victory. Greetings from the Philippines. 🙂
My prediction for TOP 5
1.Australia
2.Russia
3.Latvia
4.France
5.Serbia
My top 5
1.Ukraine
2.France
3.Sweden
4.Latvia
5.Serbia
Erods
No chance to Russia win with this kind of song at Eurovision.
Eurovision is so predictable this year, almost boring.
Russia is going to walk through
They have the whole package : a very good song, a great performer and I am pretty sure they will have an amazing staging
My prediction:
1. Latvia
2. Serbia
3. Australia
4. Russia
5. Sweden
Russia tops the betting odds just because it’s Russia, and they know they’re going to get a massive amount of points from the former Soviets, as usual. The song itself is not worth a penny…
If it was sung by Belarus or Portugal, everybody would be making fun of it, it’s super dated and lame, meaningless lyrics and ridiculously over-the-too video.
@Milla: I’m a ESC fan and I usually HATE the schlagger Sweden sends to Eurovision. But for once, I really like the Swedish entry! It’s different, it’s nice and simple, no over-the-top LED, etc. I was rooting for Il Volo last year, but I wouldn’t mind if Frans won in Stockholm. 🙂
If It is a SONG contest Russia shouldn’t win, If anything Azerbaijan, Latvia, Italy or Ukraine should win.
Sergey’s song seems very calculated and formulaic and honestly so 2009……