Russia’s Sergey Lazarev might still be safe at the top of the Eurovision 2016 odds, but it’s all change behind him. France’s Amir has continued to gain traction since our last odds update on the 27th of March and is now the second favourite to win Eurovision 2016, according to oddschecker.com.

Amir’s odds have continued to shorten as confidence has grown in a potential French victory. 10/1 are the best odds currently available on France, with numerous bookmakers giving that price.

It’s worth nothing that Sweden are not far behind. Frans is indeed lower than Amir with some bookmakers. Best odds on a Swedish double come at 11/1 through Marathon Bet.

Whilst there’s still lots of interest behind them, Russia remain clear at the top. In our last update, Sergey’s best odds sat at 2/1, but they have shortened again across the board. He’s now the 17/10 favourite to win the contest and his strong performance in Moscow will only have helped to solidify this.

EUROVISION 2016 ODDS: WHO WILL WIN THE GRAND FINAL? (APRIL 7 AT 18:00 GMT)

Eurovision 2016 odds update 7th april

The odds have started to move following the start of the pre-contest parties. After having been in the top three of the odds, Latvia have drifted consistently over the past few weeks. Justs’ performance in Riga, however, cut Latvia’s odds and he is now just outside the top five, with odds of 22/1 being the best available at multiple bookmakers.

Performances in Riga and Moscow have also helped Armenia and Spain, with their odds also shortening. Barei has gone from highest odds of 40/1 last week to 28/1 this week (via NetBet). That is certainly something to “Say Yay” about! The other acts involved over the weekend have not yet seen any real shifts: could this be a sign of confidence in these three acts live?

One country who won’t be too happy about their odds is Croatia. Despite Nina Kraljic’s full video for “Lighthouse” having been revealed, Croatia have now drifted as far out as 33/1 with Marathon Bet. This places her outside of the top ten – but it is worth nothing that those odds aren’t consistent. Some bookmakers still have Nina as low as 15/1, which could put her comfortably back inside the top ten. It’ll be interesting to see how this changes following Eurovision in Concert after her performance.

Do you think that France have a chance to catch Russia in the odds before the contest begins? Let us know in the comments section below, and be sure to check back for an odds update following Eurovision in Concert.

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james
james
6 years ago

I don’t get it. Spain and Croatia both got very good songs and Russia a crap song. How Russia still at the top? is this a joke or a conspiracy? Seriously.
Just saying Croatia have a song that transmits a feeling. Russia’s song is empty. I wouldn’t be surprise if the Russian Mafia altered the odds.

Javier Rojo
Javier Rojo
6 years ago

No matter how bad odds think about Barei (Spain). Spain is one of the best songs this year. Spain, France and Australia (musically therms). Los demás son caspa hortera

Jim McGuigan
Jim McGuigan
6 years ago

If France stick with the same set they did in their live version on you tube they won’t win. It looks like an amateur performance compared to Russia. The song that no one has mentioned that I think is underrated is Israel. After a few listens it Really started to grow on me. A beautiful ballad. Anyway it’s Russia for me with Israel good top 10 bet.

MJ
MJ
6 years ago

This year songs didn’t impress me at all. Except for Croatia, but since I’m from Croatia that doesn’t count.
Russian song is catchy, Kaliopi has a great voice but song is nothing special, Armenia has nice video, “you” part well sang, aside from that dull.
Deserve to win: Iceland and Czech Republic.
Kind of good songs: Belarus, Romania, Belgium, B&H.
The others are pretty much bad or copy/paste from USA which makes it even worse.
Will win: San Marino

igal
igal
6 years ago

Ugh, to be honest, I am not into any of the songs this year. There are a few acceptable songs, sure, but nothing that makes me want to listen to it again. Even sadder, it appears that I have less and less enthusiasm about eurovision from year to year. I find the level of songs has decreased dramatically, the voting was and remains ridiculous, all the phony smiles on and off the stage make me ill. I may watch this year’s contest, but I think I am weaning toward non-participation next year

redarrow
6 years ago

ira losco from malta should win great singer great song .but i think she wont because as usall nieghbour voteing ….. go ira…………

Evropeizipidori
Evropeizipidori
6 years ago

“YOOOUUUUU” it’s all because of what France has to win? Like “O-uh-o-o-oh” by Sweden last year? Because in addition to these howls in the song there is nothing

Miki
Miki
6 years ago

@ bella Sweden`s song is really annoying. It`s just a boy talking in the microphone instead of singing. And his accent is also very annoying (he`s trying to hard to be cool).

Rhys
Rhys
6 years ago

I’ve listened to Russia a few times and I’m sorry I’m not feeling it. As for Sweden…. it’s growing on me but still not feeling it. France for me has been stuck in my mind all the time. The song is beautiful, the concert performances have been good and I have totally fallen in love with the official videoclip. After all the crap that’s happened with France last year, it’d be a nice thing for them to win and win with a worthy song. I’ve loved the Russian and Swedish entries past, present and possibly future, but France has my… Read more »

Eveline
Eveline
6 years ago

All of this songs from the top of the odds are very good but… remember my comment, I think Poland will be the black horse of the Eurovision this year.. I’m just saying 😉
Personally in front of Michal I really like songs from Latvia, Italy and Czech Republic 😉

Mihail
Mihail
6 years ago

France, Australia,Sweden, Malta, Croatia are overrated in odds.
Greece,Estonia,Serbia, Czech Republic and Azerbaijan underrated

Jylia
Jylia
6 years ago

Anton so agree with you. I just watched all performances from Amsterdam and male vocalists just weak this year. I mean, sorry guys, but Amir live vocals is simply poor. If there are any competitors to Sergey this year it might be Croatia (flat but she can sing live and create atmosphere) or Australia. But not France. Of course you can like or not like russian song, that’s your right. But this song is powerful, full of energy and drive. It’s different yet catchy. And Sergey is really good live. Anyway we’ll see soon. Good luck to everyone! :*

Stephanie
6 years ago

I’m sorry bella, Sweden will not win again. I’m not even sure every tween/teen girl in Europe and Australia will be voting en masse for Frans because he’s cute and non-threatening, it’s the song that really matters as it is a song contest first and foremost.

France has proven itself to be a strong contender for the title, and if Amir’s trajectory holds steady culminating in a series of good rehearsals and a good performance in the final, we could find ourselves in Paris next year

bella
bella
6 years ago

Why you hate so much Sweden.Support France but not hate Sweden.You are so jealous that Sweden won 2 times in 4 years and that has a chance to win again this year. It is among favorites.Accept it!!! Frans either will win either will be in top5.

Martin
Martin
6 years ago

France have the best song this year – I am a huge fan

from the Internet:
from the Internet:
6 years ago

@bella: Also millions of people between 14-35 years old will like his song.

No. 14-16 (girls only) – maybe; 17-18 (girls only) – too big doubt. So, not millions of people.. Sorry. 🙂

@bella: Fans of Ed Sheeran and Bieber will vote for him like crazy.

What??? What for they will vote for Frans, who is a afterproduct or even a tertiary product of their idols? No, they won’t. Sorry. 🙂

bella
bella
6 years ago

I agree with you Anton

Anton
Anton
6 years ago

It will be between Russia and Sweden for sure, again.

bella
bella
6 years ago

Finland didnt have a eurovision song in 2006 but won the contest.Frans song is unusual but it has an instant impact and he has cuteness.And his simple performance will be better than those who will attempt to copy Mans.I think that juries will support him.Also millions of people between 14-35 years old will like his song.Fans of Ed Sheeran and Bieber will vote for him like crazy.For me he is the only one who gives the feeling of a winner…And usually host countries dont do well because they dont seek success the revent years.Svt has said that their aim is… Read more »

sonic0201
sonic0201
6 years ago

Anton
I actually expect a very professional performance from Lazarev, let’s see if it can win him all the votes. The song itself is good, but nothing spectacular, so he really needs to do a super live performance.

Denis
Denis
6 years ago

Aurelian Tamisam, actually the host country usually does really well. Last year was an exception that surprised everyone, even those who didn’t like it thought it would end up like 15th or something. Most years host countries do well. Since the modern ESC-era there haw been few exceptions to that rule.

So there is nothing to suggest Frans and Sweden will fail

Anton
Anton
6 years ago

sonic0201
You will see it in the semi and the final. Russia is very strong in the live and in the presentation. That’s way it’s better than the other entries.

Anton
Anton
6 years ago

France is very overrated! I don’t know why, but it’s just bad…

Dora
Dora
6 years ago

France, Malta, Sweden and Armenia overrated on beting odds. Underrated are only song from Estonia.

kotomi
kotomi
6 years ago

I’d be totally okay with France winning.. just anyone besides Russia and Sweden please..

sonic0201
sonic0201
6 years ago

I still don’t get the faveoritism that Russia recieves. Maybe it’s only me, but I’m still not convinced about that entry. It could still win, and if it does, then it’s fine. It’s not a bad song afterall. I still can’t see how it is so much better than any other entry in the contest. I also checked many Top lists on youtube, and Lazarev definitely isn’t doing that well like the odds suggest. Oh well, bookies already put him in the Top 3 even before he released his song… I’m also not convinced about the French entry. Lots of… Read more »

João Teles
João Teles
6 years ago

i hope Russia doesn’t win, that song is horrible, it would be a huge insult to the evolution that ESC is making in the last few years, France should really win this completely, Spain is totally overrated, it will not make above 16th place, in my opinion.

AurelianTamisan
AurelianTamisan
6 years ago

I don’t know of what are based these odds, but I think they are waaay below the reality. They see Sweden with the 3rd chance. Last years we’ve seen that the host doesn’t usually make even top 10 and what Sweden has this year doesn’t seem to not respect that rule. Don’t get me wrong, presonally I like a lot Frans’ song, but for the large view, it’s a linear lacking of power song. They see Malta with 6th chance. Personally I’m curious if Malta will make the final, I doubt it. And they give little small chances to Hungary… Read more »

Azotman
Azotman
6 years ago

Bonsoir Stockholm, Difficile de prédire le vainqueur. Gagner l’Eurovision dépend de plusieurs facteurs : 1. Attitude des jury. 2. Influence des blocs et de la diaspora. 3. Style de la chanson. 4. Langue utilisée. 5. Vote des fans de l’Eurovision. 6. Vote des autres spectateurs. 7. Ordre de passage. La Russie me parait être le candidat le plus sérieux pour la victoire à tous les niveaux. L’attitudes des jury est assez imprévisible même si la Suède est souvent favorisée. Sur les différents sites et top 43 la Suède ne marque pas beaucoup tandis que l’Espagne fait de gros scores. Si… Read more »

Constantine
Constantine
6 years ago

Frans is back at #2

Denis
Denis
6 years ago

France always seems to be a favourite either with fans or poll or both, only to end up very low. So I don’t expect much from them this year either. Tough the song is really good. The songs who aren’t to popular with the fans always end up doing well like 2014 and 2015, whereas the fan favourite usually always disappoints. And yes, despite you all not liking Frans it will do well. Maybe not top 5 but top 10 for sure. That’s what the polls show basically, not that these song necessarily will win but that enough people will… Read more »

SLY
SLY
6 years ago

@ Charles No offence from my side, dear! It`s just my IMHO! I made my statement about Frans as well – not my cupoftea 😉

Bradley
Bradley
6 years ago

Let’s go to Paris France for me has the better song Bulgaria and Spain deserves to be a lot higher then they do

Charles
Charles
6 years ago

@SLY: A very fine description of Frans you’ve just made there .. spot on … boring and with no charisma … 🙂 It’s nice to see Scandinavians having some sense of self criticism besides bashing everybody around for nor reason. We already have the Russian entry going over the top of crappiness … it would be too much if you played the same role with your boring anti-everybody criticism. 🙂 🙂 🙂

Anton
Anton
6 years ago

France will flop as usual.

MS
MS
6 years ago

Let’s wait the French performance!
It will be strong , positive and natural and everybody will see his strong presence on stage!
The difference between serguey and Amir is that Amir has a more beautiful smile .
And you know you can fall in love just for a smile.
Amir will do an pretty good winner.So good luck France.I hope you the best!

fikri
fikri
6 years ago

urgh, can sweden please go outside the top 10? that’s my only complaint looking at the odds table. the rest i’m already happy with.

Mezzo
Mezzo
6 years ago

One thing is sure…western europe won’t buy this soulless russian song.

Anton
Anton
6 years ago

San-Marino will win! You didn’t know…

nick
nick
6 years ago

France would be an awesome winner. However, I think there are many underrated songs, like Italy, Hungary, Israel and Belgium. So, not sure how accurate these odds are.

Jacques
Jacques
6 years ago

It’s my dream since I’m five, a French victory. Between 2007 and 2009, France was my favourite every year; also in 2011. But for me a victory for them is quite impossible this year. First, Swedish song is already charted out of Sweden and I see it even in random playlists on Spotify. Russia is perhaps would make a great staging, also they are the queens of the East European voting block. I don’t expect any cool staging from Amir, and perhaps so this song can’t be ranked so high both by juries and televoters. I don’t think he could… Read more »

SLY
SLY
6 years ago

Soory guys, but the French song is so monotonous and the singer is so….where is he… boring. No charisma. Thats how we see it from Scandinavia.

Erin
Erin
6 years ago

@Alex – That’s a very concise perspective and food for thought.
Another suggestion in partial correlation with those figures is that 2016 might be the year of the ‘Thirty Somethings’ which includes Russia (33), France (32), Malta (34) and Ukraine (32). Usually I wouldn’t discriminate over ageism, but it’s worth noting that since 2007, all the winners were in their mid or late Twenties by average. Compare that with 2000-2006 when 4 out of the 7 winners were 30+ and even go back to the Nineties where you had 5 winners over 30 between 1990-1999.

Statistic's man
Statistic's man
6 years ago

According to http://eurovisiontops.com/, after 861 votes, France is first. With most “12points”, most points overall and most top10 appereances.
(2nd: Russia, 3rd: Spain)

According to http://tummiweb.com/scorewiz/poll/results, with votes by countries, France is in the lead also (by far) :
1. France 349pts
2. Russia 245pts
3. Australia 229pts

And with total points overall, after thousands of votes, France is first with 7625 points. Russia in second place has “only” 6413 pts.

But if a Big5 country in the lead in polls turns into a win at the ESC final, we would know about that (only exception : Germany 2010)

Alex
Alex
6 years ago

When looking at odds you must also keep in mind the list of the most popular bets, especially in international competitions such as the Eurovision where differing populations of gamblers exist and demonstrate patriotism – people are more likely to place bets on their own country. How this works is that the most popular bets are usually overstated (have lower return than available information shows), whereas the less popular bets are usually understated. This is due to numerous reasons, but most significant is if the most popular bet does win, they want to minimise the amount paid out so they… Read more »

Terstra
Terstra
6 years ago

Odds are not telling the story this year…Astonishing winner.

I have a hunch it will be a woman.

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
6 years ago

Surprised Bulgaria have not shortened a little more.
I would have thought that they would be more interest than either Armenia or Serbia.

Chance
Chance
6 years ago

,

Thanks for the heads up. My office anti-virus software blocks most ads so I guess that explains that.

bella
bella
6 years ago

I can understand why pwople dont believe that Sweden can win because she won last year.France is 2nd in betting odds because people bet on her more than Sweden.Thats rational! I firmly believe that Sweden can m

ake the surprise and win again.France has a good song but Frans has the package!

No Surprises Here
No Surprises Here
6 years ago

Australia, Malta, Bulgaria, Ukraine and Armenia should move/stay in the top 5.
Sweden is so overrated…(somebody is working hard behind the scene..) Russia is overrated too, but unlike the Swedish song it will remain at the top for its sheer production qualities. Croatia could only blame themselves to drift out of the top 5. A very good song and even a better singer, but Nina’s marketing team seems to be totally “lost in space”.