A handful of betting agencies — BoyleSports, SportingBet, PaddyPower and Betfair, among others, have released their first set of odds for who will win Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2016.

It should come as no surprise that grand final favourite Sergey Lazarev leads the way here as well. The Russian star is the bookies’ clear favourite to win the semi, with his odds at 4/11 at BoyleSports and 2/5 at PaddyPower.

His song “You Are The Only One” topped the Wiwi Jury rankings and is currently second to France’s Amir to win the OGAE International fan poll.

If anyone is going to steal his thunder (and lightning), the bookies think it is Armenia’s Iveta Mukuchyan. They have her down as second favourite, with odds of 4/1 at BoyleSports.

Iveta has had to shorten her planned press tour as a result of geopolitical tensions in the Caucuses, but her live performance at the Moscow Eurovision Party has the bookies convinced of her abilities. Will her next live performance — during her first rehearsal in the Globen — take her even higher?

Malta’s Ira Losco is third overall, with odds of 7/1 at BoyleSports. However, a number of betting agencies including SportingBet and PaddyPower, actually have her listed as their second favourite to win.

The “Walk on Water” singer has routinely dazzled at the pre-show events. Malta has ambition, so we except massive staging.

At the moment San Marino, Moldova and Montenegro are seen as the countries least likely to win this semi-final.

Semi-final 1 betting odds: Who will win?

semi final 1 odds eurovision 2016 win

PLACE YOUR BET ON BETFAIR NOW

Semi-final 1: Odds to qualify

eurovision 2016 odds qualify

Those are, of course, the odds to win Semi-Final 1. The bookies run a separate table for who will actually qualify.

At the moment PaddyPower believe the following 10 acts are the most likely to make it through: Russia, Malta, Armenia, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Cyprus, The Netherlands, Czech Republic and Iceland.

They think Estonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Greece, Austria, Finland, Moldova, San Marino and Montenegro are likely to miss out on the final.

The bookies’ odds shouldn’t be taken as doctrine — they often get it wrong. However, if they are correct, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Greece will fail to make the final for the first time in their history at Eurovision.

Do you agree with the bookies Top 10 acts to qualify? Who do you think is the most underrated and overrated? Let us know in the comments box below!

Read more about the Eurovision 2016 betting odds

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Daniela
Guest
Daniela

Armenia
12 points from Spain

Mary
Guest
Mary

Armenia …..my favorite.. good luck… from France

Ani
Guest
Ani

1. ARMENIA

Inessa
Guest

Armenia!!!!!!!!!!!

HARUT
Guest

1 ARMENIA
2 RUSIA
3 FRANC
4 MALTA
5 GERMANIA

Georgia
Guest
Georgia

Armenia

Mariam
Guest
Mariam

RUSSIA??? Sergey’s song is so terrible,I really don’t like it((( IVETA <3

power b.
Guest
power b.
Arsen
Guest
Arsen

1.Armeniaaaaaaaaaa 1000%

Z
Guest
Z

1.Armenia

.......
Guest
.......

2.Russia

.......
Guest
.......

1.Armenia

Nel
Guest

1.Armenia
2.Russia

redarrow
Guest

sorry 2016 : )

redarrow
Guest

malta should win eurovision 2017 who agrees ?

Pedro Chadid
Guest
Pedro Chadid

For me the best ten songs of this semifinal are: Russia, , Armenia, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, Malta, The Netherlands, Czech Republic, Estonia and Iceland.

With chace: Cyprus (good song but not good alive performance) Azerbaijan (Is not bad but is not enough good for the final with the level this year)

Jack
Guest
Jack

1.Armenia
2.Malta
3>Russia
4.Croatia
5.Hungary
6.Cyprus
7.Iceland
8.Azeerbaijan
9.Czech Republic
10.Bosnia & Herzegovina

power b.
Guest
power b.

@Charles
Armenia will be the third. Right behind Russia and Malta.

Laura
Guest
Laura

Yes! Only ONE live performance of Iveta was ENOUGH to improve her position in bookies list (4-5 places). Iveta hasn’t given any interview yet. She only had a performance with changed lyrics. So I think, Armenia’s position is pretty good at the moment. I believe, that her performance will be BRILLIANT, but juries will underrate Armenian entry as ALWAYS.
Why? Think about it))

Kyle Swihart
Guest
Kyle Swihart

Armenia, Netherlands, and Iceland are overrated. It would not be an upset if they did not make the Finals. Their replacements will by Austria, Estonia, Greece, or Bosnia & Herz. My favorite of these is Estonia.

Nicky91
Guest
Nicky91

@Marko

well Sergey is number 1, which is also questionable for me

but Armenia’s song is good 🙂

Charles
Guest
Charles

I would laugh if Armenia (and I am not personally in love with this one) ended up surpassing Russia at the actual semi final LOL I can image Sergey’s face … LOL

Marko
Guest
Marko

Armenia at 2nd place? What? That song is the biggest disappointment of the year and I don’t see a reason for it to be so high, let alone pass through the finals.

Nicky91
Guest
Nicky91

@Luke

Hi Luke, a shame that you can’t vote in semi final 1, i know how it feels if you can’t vote for your favourite, i had the same last year that Malta was last year in semi final 2, where i couldn’t vote either

anyway i wish your favourites good luck, and i agree with you about Russia 🙂

Luke
Guest
Luke

I just want my favourite to qualify Croatia but I can’t vote in Semi Final 1 because I’m from UK, so please vote for Nina I want her in the final I’d also like to see The Netherlands and Iceland in final please don’t let the overrated Russia win either

Nicky91
Guest
Nicky91

@Skandar well maybe the 2 maltese backing singers, are backing singers who sing with her quite a lot, and the 2 swedish that’s because of MPH has written the song with her right 🙂 , and i don’t care but I only find it a good thing she has live backing singers, which i wanted 🙂 and i might come over as defending my favourite, but even if she wasn’t my favourite, i’m just being plain honest now, she deserves to make the final, she has got one of the best songs in semi final 1 🙂 last year i… Read more »

Nicky91
Guest
Nicky91

@Mvaneijk97

well okay you’re right on that, but it had a more positive vibe for me, than slow down

@Pollaski

okay, maybe you’re right mate, but to me Ira’s song is more positive and Douwe’s song is really depressing

and yes I’m a big fan of Malta, we all know that by know 🙂 , but i’m proud of supporting them

and Ira’s song is more current, and Douwe Bob’s voice reminds me of R.E.M from losing my religion or Man on the moon, so a bit 90’s style

georgekirkas
Guest
georgekirkas

@Pollaski

As you already said, I like to be artistic and this is one reason I posted this ”comment”. I also did it, though, in order to emphasize my surprise.

esc 2016
Guest
esc 2016

@Craig

No….Greece gives a breeze of ethnic traditional music with a good combain of pontiac elements….something different in Eurovision

Alex
Guest
Alex

Crossing fingers for Austria instead of Armenia… 🙂

The top 10 is pretty good overall, though.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Something is very wrong if Greece qualify this year

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not about my personal tastes (My fav from here is Hungary, but I wouldn’t put one single song of this 18 in my top 5) but what I think will happen:

1-RUSSIA
2-ICELAND
3-HUNGARY
4-CZECH REPUBLIC
5-ESTONIA
6-CROATIA
7-MALTA
8-THE NETHERLANDS
9-ARMENIA
10-AZERBAIJAN

—-
11- AUSTRIA
12- CYPRUS
13- FINLAND
14- BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
15- MOLDOVA
16- GREECE
17- SAN MARINO
18- MONTENEGRO

Diane
Guest
Diane

I would trade Iceland and Cyprus for Estonia and Finland as the qualifier.

As for Russia, it is very overrated. Doesn’t scream 2016 for me.

Pollaski
Guest
Pollaski

@georgekirkas

You posted a comment… to say no comment

Is this an attempt to be artistic?

David
Guest

So strong semi final.Anyway 15 songs are really potential qualifiers the rest of 3 countries ( San Marino Montenegro and Moldova ) are 100% non qualifiers.So the most potential countries which can catch up its Bosnia and Greece.So I’m sure there won’t be any surprises in this semi final.My TOP 18..
1.Armenia
2.Malta
3.Russia
4.Hungary
5.Cyprus
6.Czech Republic
7.Iceland
8.Croatia
9.Estonia
10.Azerbaijan
11.Greece
12.Austria
13.Finland
14.Netherlands
15.Bosnia
16.Moldova
17.San Marino
18.Montenegro

Laburnum
Guest
Laburnum

How Semi 1 works for me:

1. Croatia 10/10
2. Malta 10/10
3. Iceland 10/10
4. Cyprus 10/10
5. Netherlands 9.5/10
6. Armenia 9.5/10
7. Czech Republic 9/10
8. Azerbaijan 8.5/10
9. Finland 8/10
10. Austria 8/10
——————-
11. Hungary 8/10
12. Estonia 7/10
13. Moldova 7/10
14. Russia 7/10
15. B&H 7/10
16. San Marino 6/10
17. Greece 5.5/10
18. Montenegro 2/10

mad_hat
Guest
mad_hat

@Skandar – why is it pathetic? Bigger countries than Malta have done it in the past and will do it this year. If you watch the Maltese selection you would notice how full of talent Malta is when considering the small population, I’m sure if they wanted they would have found two other Maltese backing vocalists. The song was composed, recorded and produced in Sweden and is being distributed under Warner Sweden, hence the two swedes (one of whom is 99.9999% MPH) were chosen by the producers I suppose. I respect your opinion for thinking it’s maybe a lousy idea,… Read more »

karminowe.usta
Guest
karminowe.usta

@nene i’m not too sure what to think of armenia. us fans, we know that she’ll eventually start singing but for people who hear the song for the first time it might be dreading to hear her talk in the first minute of the song..

I totally agree with you. Armenia`s song in first rehearsal was horrible for me. Now it`s better but I still dislike this song. But I think Armenia would be in Grand Final.

karminowe.usta
Guest
karminowe.usta

In my opinion Czech Republic is very overrated. This song is boring and recycled. Czech Republic wouldn`t be in Grand Final.

Russia would win first semi-final – Sergey is a very good vocalist and he would prepare exciting show:)

Malta would be in Grand Final but wouldn`t in top 3 in first semi-final.

To Grand Final would qualify: Russia, Malta, Armenia, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Iceland, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia. Cyprus has a good song but this band can`t sing in live.

ARMENIA SUCKS
Guest
ARMENIA SUCKS

Countries that should qualify (Random order):

Cyprus
Austria
Russia
Finland
Malta
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Azerbaijan
Iceland

Leo
Guest
Leo

Russia,Malta,Azerbaijan,Croatia,Armenia,Hungary and Iceland will definitely go through ! Czech Republic and Cyprus are likely candidates while Greece and Bosnia will fight it out ! Creepy Juri and repetitive Dutch boy won’t qualify

Pollaski
Guest
Pollaski

@Nicky 91

In Douwe Bob’s song, the phrase “Slow down” is sung 24 times.

In Ira Losco’s song (your favorite, as we’ve all come to guess by now, the phrase “on water” is sung 19.5 times- I’m awarding a half because the second chorus cuts off “water” to lead into the bridge.

So, uh, it seems weird to hate a song for being repetitive when your favorite is only slightly less so.

Yasi
Guest
Yasi

@Daniel E.: That’s exactly how I want it, too! As long as Azerbaijan, Austria, Russia and Hungary make it I’m okay with anyone!

Azotman
Guest
Azotman

Bonsoir Stockholm,

Voici mes votes pour la 1ère 1/2 finale :

Qualifiées (Ordre alphabétique)
Arménie, Autriche, Azerbaidjan, Bosnie Herzegovine, Croatie, Grèce, Hongrie, Moldavie, Pays-Bas, Russie

Eliminées (Ordre alphabétique)
Chypre, Estonie, Finlande, Islande, Malte, Montenegro, Rep. Tchèque et San Marino.

Concernant l’Autriche : l’OGAE France a donné 12 points !!! L’Autriche est à la 10e place des OGAE, je pense qu’elle va se qualifier. Allez Zoë !!!
France, Espagne et Suède votent pour la 1ère demi-finale.

OGAE Allemagne (en cours)

Frankreich
Österreich
Russland
(Deutschland)
Australien
Lettland
Spanien
Schweden
Italien
Zypern
Ukraine

Bises,
Maxime

Mvaneijk97
Guest

@Nicky91

You say that Douwe repeats Slow Down like 50 times and Trijntje was better while Trijntje repeats Why 10.000 times and everything went wrong except for her singing

georgekirkas
Guest
georgekirkas

@Pollaski

No comment…

sonic0201
Guest
sonic0201

Definitely the stronger semi final between the two. We will know more after the rehearsals, but right now it looks like: – Russia is probably a lock to qualify – the bottom 3 (San Marino, Moldova, Montenegro) – I just don’t even see the potential with the others, lots of things can still happen – Croatia should qualify, but everytime Nina Kraljic performed the song, her odds started to drift, so you never know… – Armenia and Hungary should qualify, unless they make some major f*kery – one of Finland, Greece, or Bosnia could somehow sneak into the final with… Read more »

Skandar
Guest
Skandar

@Elyk I understand that there are not enough composers on that small island but how on earth Ira does not find 2 more vocalists in Malta. Pathetic, she has to import 2 swedish vocalists for swedish song…

Pollaski
Guest
Pollaski

@Skandar

Of course I’m self-confident. I am a product of selected breeding by God himself over several centuries and a wide geographical diaspora, all to create the ultimate analytical mind. This is irrefutable so do not even attempt 🙂

Obviously the contest in May still needs to happen as it is ultimately a live singing contest and a terrible performance will change matters (Macedonia last year springs to mind). Also, as great as my mind is, I still enjoy the pretty colors of the staging, and the costumes, and it’d be a shame to miss that.

Elyk
Guest
Elyk

Ira Losco will have Skorpion, the dancer in the video with her on stage as well as 4 backing singers – 2 Maltese + 2 Swedish