Earlier in the spring the bookies had Eurovision 2016 down as a two-horse race between Russia’s Sergey Lazarev and Sweden’s Frans. But following the whirlwind Eurovision pre-party season, which featured stops in Amsterdam, London, Moscow, Riga and Tel Aviv, the bookies have had second thoughts. And, dare we say, third, and fourth, and fifth thoughts too.
Since our last breakdown on April 7 France has consistently climbed to the odd stable. During that time Amir has seen his odds of winning fall from a respectable 10/1 to as low as 2/1 at some agencies. With those odds he’s now clipping the heels of Russia’s Sergey Lazarev, who is maintaining odds of 2/1 to win the contest.
The rest of the top five has not changed much since our last review. Both Frans from Sweden and Dami Im from Australia both share similar odds, hovering around the 10/1 mark and are consistently swapping between third and fourth placings in the bookies rankings.
EUROVISION 2016 ODDS: WHO WILL WIN THE GRAND FINAL (APRIL 30 AT 17:00 CET)
One of the largest climbers since our last review of the odds is Poli Genova from Bulgaria. Sitting at a mere 11th place with the bookies last time with odds of 20/1, she’s now squeezed herself into the top five with odds as low as 12/1.
It’s clear that the fans and the bookies loved Poli’s performances at the Eurovision preview parties. Her vocals were on point, she oozed confidence, and the crowds always responded enthusiastically. That combined with her mainstream sound is helping her cause.
Some other countries have also climbed in recent days. Included in that lucky group are Francesca Michielin from Italy, who’s odds have gone from as low as 25/1 to 18/1, now placing Italy inside the top ten. The Czech Republic and The Netherlands have also cracked the Top 15.
Croatia has not fared as well. Still a favourite with fans and with us at wiwibloggs, her performances at the Eurovision pre-parties were stellar. The bookies seem to think otherwise. Nina Kraljic has watched her odds drift from around 15/1 out to 25/1 and she is now ranked outside of the top 15. Ouch!
As we move closer to Eurovision 2016, do you think France will catch Russia in the odds? Let us know in the comments below!
Ooh! Netherlands and Iceland will do well too!
It would be very interesting to get statistics and analyse the origin of the betters, as for example, in Spain and other European countries it is not allowed to bet for TV shows. If we consider the favourites are those in the betting tops, we must take this into account: if you bet for your own country and place it on the top, then you create expectations about your country and awaken press focus and interest in it. Since Russia has been made the favourite in the Eastern block, I just hope Amir hasnt become the other favourite in order… Read more »
This year reminds me both 2012 and 2014. 2012, as this year the quality of songs amazingly high; 2014, the winner is not distinguishable, between so many goods this time. Until the Friday after the second semi-final we won’t know the winner, and who’ll top the odds by Friday, they will be the winners. For me, a seventh Swedish is much more possible than a French or Russian, despite I personally support France. France has a good song, but it is still France. Remember ‘Sognu’ topped the odds in 2011, or the UK’s Molly in 2014. If they’d win, it… Read more »
I can only imagine the face of bitterness and revolt in Sergey’s face if he get caught and surpassed by France … Russia being surpassed by an authentic and honest musical presentation with no second intentions hidden in the back … wow .. I’d get my kikis watching that happen lol
I guess story of ESC 2014 will be repeated. I agree that Sergey is a great singer and performer but his song is too bad for me… Really… So dated! Those who think that Russia is going to win like Sergey or Russia as a performer ..IDK.. Meh… Listen to Moldova’s song. The same vibe and ordinary Europop. Anyway she won’t qualify. I’m not sure about France as well. It is obvious that Russia will definitely be in top5, as a result of characteristics mentioned above, but I don’t see benefits of France over other entries. I like Bulgarian song.… Read more »
Also that thumbnail! It looks like Sergey told Amir a joke and they just can’t hold in their laughter! 😀
France, Bulgaria or Malta to win I think. Croatia, Poland, Armenia, Australia, Latvia, Sweden, Russia and Spain ( and hopefully Israel )will do quite good. Tbh, Frans has this sort of “I’m-trying-so-hard-but-trying-to-not-make-it-obvious” vibe about him, I just feel awkward when watching him. Sergey is just a good singer with an overly catchy and produced song that still sounds cheap and has, imo, the worst lyrics of the year. However, they are the powerhouses of Eurovision, Sergey has fame and talent, Frans will somehow charm young ladies ( except me 😉 ) and that is why they are going to do… Read more »
This just proves that “If I were sorry” will appeal to the audience for sure (at least all western countris will vote soo high for it). Since one of the jury’s criteria is vote for potencial radio hit.. they are going to love this love as well.
(12K of streams come from outside of Sweden, and almost all songs are available on Spotify)
malta is gonna win … nice singer great voice wowww song great video whole package and iam shure shes gonna give a stuning performance on stage go malta u deserve to win …..
I think the bookies make mistakes this year, Russia’s victory is simply impossible, and it sure will not max 3rd place, Europe will not vote for Sergei, although he is worthy victory. I hope that we will eat next year in Paris 🙂
Lol that @Allen guy below, copied and pasted an entire thing I wrote, concerning the odds, about a month ago. He didn’t even change the data to fit with the new rankings in the odds…
Crasch booom. Russia out.
@Paddy
Samra is an awful singer live, and that song is pure rubbish, i don’t want Azerbaijan to qualify this year, each year they had a good song, and now it’s just dull and boring, and the staging is awful as well, i rather see Estonia, Iceland and Greece qualifying over this crap 🙂
i don’t know why Bulgaria is on fifth place, all the bulgarians betting on their own country, Ira has a better song than Poli’s ordinary pop song ( nothing unique to Poli)
Russia are not gonna Winn. Thet are going 10-15 place. Sweden or France gonna Winn.
@oxyk
Netherlands have real music….the only country whi have…the best male voice
I have no idea why Sweden has such good odds, and I say this as someone who pulls for Sweden by default…
@Nikos
“Any reason the Netherlands is so high?”
bidders are from Texas, USA?
When looking at odds you must also keep in mind the list of the most popular bets, especially in international competitions such as the Eurovision where differing populations of gamblers exist and demonstrate patriotism – people are more likely to place bets on their own country. How this works is that the most popular bets are usually overstated (have lower return than available information shows), whereas the less popular bets are usually understated. This is due to numerous reasons, but most significant is if the most popular bet does win, they want to minimise the amount paid out so they… Read more »
Any reason the Netherlands is so high? Perhaps the bookies are considering a “Calm Before the Storm” situation so moved them up to balance that possibility?
@Swe
thanks finely a normal person from Sweden here, i do not hate Sweden at all… Stockholm is one of the pretty cities in the world, and i lived in Oslo a few years ago so i know Sweden well ( and most of my clothes is from h.m :)..).. but i think this year your song is not good, and its my opinion only… but to start saying evil things like this loo wrote me its horrible really….
meant God
and I want u all to know that Loo doesn’t represent all swedes…thank good
@OR I’m sorry about what happened to you in Malmo and thank you for your vote last year. I don’t think sweden will win because the song and Frans are very criticized and what i have seen, people don’t like the song that much.
And it would not be good if Sweden wins again cause the hate will escalate here on wiwi and the server will go down. The hate for Sweden is enough as it is
I’m very curious about Amir’s performance…
Honestly I clicked on the article and made myself to scroll down the comments only in the hope to find Eugene’s comments who seems to be the only one really grasping the big picture of bets and odds. Thanks, Eugene, as always. Please do share your views as rehearsals progress (I am experimenting with my betting portfolio this year so insights are helpful).
Loo hhhhh i have a lot of love…maybe you need a little bit of love if you aloud your self to call pepole that u dont even know in names and to think you are the best and only your opinion is the right one… Beleive me im a law student now im doing my secend dagree and i have intresting life so u should also do intresting things beside the eurovosion..
Do whatever you like OR, people will see clearly who has insulted who here and at least it’s not me 🙂
You seem to need some love OR, I send you a hug!
LOL
Loo and dont talk to me here again becouse i will ask wiwibloggs to block you, you insult a lot of pepole here so i will report u !!!
Loo u are the pathetic , idiot little child that cant except other pepole opinions!!!!! Goto muslem sweden to your patetic friends that sweden is the best in everything but they only lie to them self……pathetic
IF*
It would be absolutely fantastic is the contest where to be held in Paris next year!! Like I mentioned before, France Television is one of the best broadcasters in Europe when it comes to productions. Amir and the song deserves it.
Marc, I’m with you!! OR and all the other people who almost give their whole lives to hate on Sweden are just ignorant and pathetic. You and I just know better 🙂
Loo what is your problem?? You are so arrogant…… I wish u that Sweden will win and then your life will be perfect!!! I mean what else would u do in your life without Sweden wining the eurovision???? Hhhhhhhh
@ I share these thought You have the right dislike the song, but there are some facts that can’t be ignore, aside from personal taste -Current song: 5 weeks num. 1 in Sweden, x3 platinum and 29K streams on Spotify (any artist has such a big success with just stupid kids support) -Charismatic performer: watch again melfest video and see audience reaction to Frans. He also managed to win over those really good competitors. Sweden just loves him and his song. -Simple good staging: It’s what this song needs, unlike other songs Frans didn’t need any over-the-top staging to stand… Read more »
Everyone should see this! 🙂
The greatest artist with the greatest vocals – Frans (Sweden) – for the ESC 2016. :)) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvaUr5slGEo
WHY IS ICELAND NOT UP THERE? WHY IS AUSTRALIA SO HIGH UGH
@OR
HAHA, well… We’ll see.
Loo Darling im not in a war with u or with any other fans of the eurovision..
I sepport hovi mainly becouse the homopobic and antisemetic comment in that wrote in this blog against him..and im student right now so i have free time to comment here
The eurovisiom is not my main thing in life..im …and its not a war…if sweden or any other country that is not israrl will win so its great also.. every one have diffrent taste in music so respect that please
..
@OR
Me fanatic? I have noticed your comments about Hovi Star the last couple of days and if there’s anyone who’s fanatic, it’s you. Gosh.
I like Hovi too, but I’m a realist as well.
France, Russia and Sweden are the most likely ones to win. Let the war begin!
Loo no im not trying to say that, ofcourse not all the swedish are antisemetic and anti isreal…i just said that even i had traomatic event in malmo i still voted for sweden last year….
Loo hhhhhh you are so funny, im a 32 years old and a women , why should i envy a little boy with boring song and boring looks i mean really …… I think u are a fanatic fan of him…so relax its only sport…and he Is not jastin biber yet………hhhhhhhhh
@OR
Sorry, we live in a modern world and Frans song is the most modern of all this year and will appeal to a LOT of people.
What on earth had your situation in Malmö do with anything? Random. What are you trying to do? Make Sweden look like a country with antisemitic issues?
Marc is absolutely right about everything he says about Frans and his song 🙂 People are just jealous 😉
Loo its your opinion, i find this song brilliant as how boring he is…so sorry but this is not sweden year…. Last year it totally was their year i even voted for sweden last year… Even when two years ago some arab attack me wile i visited malmo, he attacked me Becouse he over heard me talking in Hebrew…
@Marc “Whole package: best current song + charismatic performer + good simple stage = all together for whatever reason just works. We saw this in melodifestivalen.” Is it kinda black humour? Swede’s Frans is absolutely amateur with his anti-charisma – he looks like empty space on the stage, and his lackluster song and half-dead “performance”. His “full package” is totaly – huge zero. 🙂 We all saw his great shame at the Melodifestivalen, because his “victory” was unfair. Frans has won only because of kids have phones and there’s the app with which they could vote 5 times for free.… Read more »
@OR
Sweden is one of the favorites because the song is absolutely brilliant and so is Frans.
I dont understand why everybody like the swedish song? Its so boring i couldn’t even listen to it until the end….why is it so favorite?? Becouse its sweden and they like france have a good PR Thats it really, there are 10 songs that much better then sweden and france!
Definitely coming down to a battle between France, Russia and Australia. Bulgaria deserves top 5, but Sweden does not, so we won’t be in Stockholm next year! In the end, much depends on rehearsals/staging, especially for the jury vote. From what I’ve read/heard, France has the edge in jury votes, but Australia will do well with them, imho. I’d be happy if any of the top 3 win! Sydney 2017? 🙂
France is going to take this. I become more and more certain for each day. Like Oscar Zia said in the pre-show on SVT. The russian song is not bad, but very bland. He said that it feels like Russia took everything that Måns did and added some cash to make it all look good. Sweden will not score Russia high, we are tired of this kind of music. We moved forward a long time ago. I don’t think that Sergey’s song is strong enough to win. Especially as of this year. Sakis did this in back in 2009 already.… Read more »