In two weeks time on May 9, Semi-Final One of Eurovision 2017 will broadcast around the world. Ten songs will qualify for the Grand Final on May 13, and the bookmakers are already lining up their favourites to win and to qualify.
The early favourite to win Semi-Final 1 is Sweden’s Robin Bengtsson. Robin never topped the odds during Melodifestivalen 2017, but ultimately emerged as a surprise winner. When you factor in that Robin is opening the semi-final, it’s clear that the bookies respect his chances.
The best odds for a Swedish victory in the semi-final are 11/4 at bet365.
Following close behind is Portugal, with Salvador Sobral‘s “Amar pelos dois” looking like a major threat. With odds as low as 10/3 available at bet365, it’s clear this race has two horses.
Salvador’s song seems to have split opinion in two, eliciting strong feelings of love and hate. Bookmakers clearly think those that truly love Salvador may vote heavily for the track — which could put him in first place on Tuesday night.
Third place goes to Armenia’s Artsvik (5/1 at bet365/Sky Bet), with Greece and Belgium rounding out the top 5 for the semi-final.
If the bookies top ten to win the semi-final were to also represent their favourites to qualify, we’d be losing some big names in the process. Of note, Iceland’s Svala and Montenegro’s Slavko Kalezic — both with sizeable support in the fan community — would be exiting the contest.
Joining them would be Georgia, Moldova, Albania, Cyprus and the Czech Republic. In the one set of “to qualify” odds available, however, Cyprus and Moldova would qualify. This would be at the expense of Finland and Poland.
Eurovision 2017: Semi-Final One Odds (To Win)
With rehearsals kicking off on April 30, expect odds to change around rapidly as we see staging and live performances. Keep checking back on wiwibloggs for the latest updates!
Can’t believe after live performances in Amsterdam and Spain – Lindita – Albania where she was amazing – by far the best live performances is not considered as one to go through to the final without a problem
I believe Portugal will qualify to be in the top 5 in finals. It’s totally different to the normal euro trash and the telly voters will love it. Same for Finland, its like a breath of fresh air in between the usual euro noise, lol.
I agree. Their ballads are quiet abd take a different approach so hopefully it works out for them.
Greece should definitely not qualify. It is an awful song really, like a pound land Euphoria. Moldova’s entry last year was quite similar and that was slated and didn’t even qualify, so why the sudden change in music taste after just 12 months? I know…its the country and not the song. Greece actually had a better song last year and they missed out.
I wouldn’t put Australia through either, its a ballad similar to what Ireland would send, and we never qualify.
Ideal Top 10 for Semi 1:
I hope Australia won’t be in final just because It’s Australia..
This will most likely be the top 10! It’s almost the same for me!
I would probably switch Latvia with Moldova or Cyprus!
I really want Cyprus to qualify but damn! This is a bloodbath! But then, though I don’t really like Latvia, it’s experimental and will be appreciated! It’s good!
And also: definetely Finland should qualify! This is amazing!
Prediction for semi-final 1 01 Sweden | 02 Portugal | 03 Azerbaijan | 04 Armenia | 05 Finland 06 Australia | 07 Poland | 08 Albania | 09 Belgium | 10 Cyprus ————————————————————————————– 11 Moldova | 12 Latvia | 13 Czechia | 14 Georgia 15 Montenegro | 16 Greece | 17 Iceland | 18 Slovenia My Rankings 01 Italy | 02 Norway | 03 | 04 United Kingdom | 05 Austria 06 Albania | 07 | 08 Bulgaria | *09 Switzerland* | 10 France 11 Serbia | 12 Sweden | 13 | 14 Denmark | 15 Moldova 16 Poland |… Read more »
Same countries all of the time. That can be sickening about ESC sometimes. If based on song, I definitely think Iceland should qualify over Australia, Poland, Armenia or Azerbaijan but nope…because it is Azerbaijan, Armenia and Australia they will qualify ahead of talent. Same countries every year and the same non-qualifying countries every year too, like cmon Czech Republic!!!
I hope these odds are wrong when we see the actual results in May.
I really like Iceland but I don’t think it is going to please the masses.
I don’t think Sweden will win the Semi-Final. It will qualify for sure and will probably be in the top 3, but it won’t win. I don’t know about Portugal, I hope they don’t make it at the expense of a better song. Moldova will make it, televoters will love it.
Anyway, I’m very excited for the rehearsals! 😀
In Eurovisionworld Portugal are in 5th place. Thats to hight.
I think Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Greece, Poland and Sweden have the most chances to qualify. The rest I don’t know, Belgium has an interesting song but I’m not sure anymore after the pre-parties, Portugal seems to have a song you really like or not, Finland, people think it’s beautiful others that’s perfect to sleep. Also Italy Spain and U.K. vote too in SF1 and It can change things. Last year for example U.K.´s jury gave 12 points to Georgia in Final and even the British animator was surprised so I think that t’ll be hard for many to qualify… Read more »
I can’t believe we’re so close to semifinal 1. I can’t wait to get my scorecards soon.
This semi is a tough one to gauge this year: one or two non-qualifiers in this semi final would probably qualify in the other semi final.
Normally just before the rehearsals I certain of about half the qualifiers, and wait for the rehearsals to make my mind up on the last one or two, and five or six won’t ever qualify.
But currently I am only absolutely certain on Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belgium and Portugal and Australia on its jury vote: throw a blanket across 10 others (but only 5 of those can qualify).
I feel like the sure qualifiers are Sweden, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Greece, Armenia and Latvia. Then, I feel like Australia will qualify à la Israel 2016 (televote flop, saved by unlikely stellar jury points). Finland, Poland, Moldova and Cyprus will be fighting for the last two slots, but I hope that Finland and Moldova make it. Cyprus has the most generic song of the year, I feel like we don’t need it in the final, while Poland needs to understand that they can do well without a mediocre ballad so it’s good for their future entries if they stay in… Read more »
And her stage in stand rehearsal was the same as the one in voice of belgique – that one when she had weird movements. So, I think she will not qualify because of her weak vocals, stage and her lack of charisma.
16. Czech Republic
Sweden, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Australia and Greece Will be in the top 5, and Latvia, Poland, Armenia and Portugal Will closely follow. The last spot is up for grabs, and I think it’s a fight between Montenegro, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, Cyprus and Finland but I think Cyprus Will be qualifier 10
Just few whom I care about and they’re all with good chances. I can’t figure though, how Finland’s spot will help it, hopefully positively, coming after Montenegro which song shakes some fat. These are so polar to each other.
Surprisingly high Armenia.
If Belgium is as bad live as it was in pre-shows it has all chances of not qualifying.
There is no surprise that it is such a fight for qualifying places, half of the songs in each semifinal will not qualify. SF2 is slightly better only because Russia could not participate.
But blanche will do it beter in kiev, believe me.
There is no need to read the semi final odds because only two agencies have bets for it, compared to the ”eurovision winner” one ad oddschecker, which has more than ten…
Finland should be through :/
Not one single song in this semifinal is decent. Such a bad year. One of the worst in history of ESC
I do hope Montenegro manages to qualify it is my guilty pleasure this year
Can’t help myself not sharing this. Snippets of stand in rehearsals, you can see that Kasia will be with violoncellist, Dihaj is performing with 4 dansers and a ladder, some seconds with Demy’s performanse etc.
Well said. She is bad live.
I have no idea how can Greece or Armenia be so high, while Czech Republic is so low. Even Cyprus is better.
I’m surprised Greece is given better odds to win this semifinal over Australia, Azerbaijan, AND Belgium.
But overall, the bookies seem just about right with this one: I don’t really see any other contender outside of Sweden or Portugal winning this semi–and this could be due to its staging being pretty much set. I expect some shifts once rehearsals start on Saturday, but probably not too major.
Portugal second palce in the semi final. I don’t think so. come on we are 2017, not the fifties anymore. So an old dated song. Blanche will be Top 3 and maybe win this semi-final. She will slay.
The worst part is that whatever happens, I’ll be sad. Why such a loaded semi ????
The first semi is definitely the strongest, but easier to predict the qualifiers:
Portugal (my jury winner and good response by televote),
Sweden (my televote winner with good response by juries),
Belgium (good feedback from both voters, like Jamala last year),
Poland (saved by diaspora votes),
Greece (because of the artist),
Georgia or Albania
My top 10 for this semi:
Moldova, Portugal, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Finland, Montenegro, Albania, Australia, Belgium, and Georgia
Belgium, Greece, Poland, Latvia, Armenia, Portugal, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Australia, Georgia, Cyprus, Moldova… really hard to call. If forced, I’d go with SWE, POR, BEL, AUS, AZE, GRE, CYP, GEO, MDV, POL.
No way georgia.
With Armenia and Azerbaijan both voting, I really wouldn’t discount it.
Not true. She has added timed arm movements to ensure qualification
Could Belgium be a shock non-qualifier?
Indeed it can. The odds for it to qualify is about 1.3 at the moment, which translates to a probability of roughly 77%. The risk of it not qualifying should be around 20-30%.
The top SEVEN on that odds list above will certainly all qualify.
Not too sure about Finland, Latvia and/or Poland, but maybe at least one of these three will squeak through. Cyprus and/or Georgia are also possibilities.
I still maintain that Montenegro is so outrageous, it’s the dark horse in this year’s Eurovision.
One of the most confusing aspects of being a Eurovision fan: Bookkeeping.
Hard year overall for both semifinals, lots of songs in the middle to fight for spots At this time, I’m going to guess the following: Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, Greece, Poland, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Cyprus, Latvia, Albania —— Armenia, Finland, Montenegro, Australia, Georgia, Czechia, Iceland, Slovenia Armenia is my shock non-qualifier this year, just a feeling. Cyprus couldn’t ask for better friends in this semi, I think people are forgetting that Hovig is Armenian as well (helps Cyprus, may hurt Armenia). Also, this semi has a lot of ballads and the juries can’t exactly help ALL of them. I think Lindita’s vocals… Read more »
Don’t understand this random love for Albania and Montenegro. Neither of them have any chance.
Thoughts on SF1: 1. Sweden: perfect to start the show and might win SF1. 2. Georgia: meh 3. Australia: will qualify because it’s Australia. The song is still meh 4. Albania: love her voice, indifferent about the song. Won’t qualify 5. Belgium: fan favorite even though I find the song a little monotonous. Staging is key on that one, especially with Montenegro performing after that. 6. Montenegro: its either 3 minutes of WTF or 3 minutes of pure genius. 7. Finland: zzzzz 8. Azerbaijan: like Australia, will qualify on its track record. The song is okay. 9. Portugal: hopefully people… Read more »
The countries that I want to qualify. (My personal opinion & in a random order)
Please don’t judge me…
3. Australia (My country!)
10. Slovenia or Portugal
I would like to see Australia not qualifying and hope to se Finland, Cyprus and Poland gualifying along with Armenia, Azer, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Latvia and Greece.
I have a feeling I’m going to be very disappointed by this semi…Iceland and Albania are among my favorites and I can’t stand Portugal or Greece.
Part of me thinks Portugal will fail to qualify BUT if Cyprus 2015 managed to qualify with that song, then Portugal can too (and the Portuguese song is better than Cyprus 2015).
Russian singer Lolita, who was born in Ukraine, traveled to Ukraine to visit his sick daughter, who lives with her mother, in 2014 her mother beat by the Nazis of Ukraine, they so far unpunished.
Moldova not qualifying would be a surprise to me… same goes for Cyprus.
Don’t be surprised if Poland is out.
You can vote 20 times right? OK 10 votes for Portugal,5 for Finland, 4 for Belgium and 1 for Slovenia. Omar is gonna be so happy when someone tells him he got a vote.
I will be disappointed if Finland does not quality. They absolutely deserve it and they had the best slow song of the night.
Cyprus deserves to qualify too.
Poland and Moldova can stay out of the final, but Moldova will easily qualify this time.
The big surprise to me is that Armenia is 3rd favourite in these semi-final odds. Interesting.
My prediction for Semi Final 1
Small diffrence in points from 8 to 12 place and from 15 to 18 place like we had in Eurovsion final 2010, when we had Denmark on 4 th place with 149 points and Georgia on 9 th place with 136 points
My prediciton 7 counitres in Top 10 on betting odds will go to final (Sweden,Belgium,Armenia,Azerbaijan,Australia,Greece,Portugal) t I think fight for last 3 place for final will be between Finland, Latvia, Poland, Moldova and Georgia.
I predict that in final will go also Poland, Latvia,Moldova and maybe Georgia took place for Poland.
This semi final is of markedly higher quality than semi final 2. Iceland and Montenegro would definitely qualify had they landed in semi 2. I would not be opposed to letting the producers decide which sings compete in which semi final next year to better balance it out.
If you could swap them, which countries would you move to semi 1? (from their respective pots)
I hope they don’t (they already have too much control in my opinion), but this is a fun idea to talk about.
Swap Finland into SF2 and I think they would have a better chance to qualify. I’d argue that SF2 has less “boring” ballads than SF1, so Finland will stand out more in SF2. And they’d have their Estonian brothers to guarantee some points.
Albania usually qualifies when diaspora votes combine with strong singers that attract quality/jury votes, Montenegro will qualify because it’s catchy and the gay vote will essentially play the role of a diaspora on this one. Portugal is the most overrated, I am not sure if the fans are giving it sympathy points or what the deal is? Can’t imagine the elderly being energized enough to vote. Sweden is not better than Belgium this year, and Azerbaijan will likely be higher than what odds say. Maybe the people in charge of measuring the odds for Eurovision are less professional or less… Read more »
Don’t underestimate the grey vote. They have great power in the voting, believe in me
Looks like a golden opportunity for you to earn some money. Go get it!
I’m not an elderly and I enjoy Portugal’s song. I don’t get your point?