The race for the Eurovision crown is a marathon, not a sprint. And while many favourites come and go, it’s often those who make a consistent climb that turn out to be number one at the end (just ask Conchita Wurst and Salvador Sobral).
Our last look-in on the Eurovision betting odds on 28 February revealed that the bookies had Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland and Sweden in the top five.
Now — on 00:01 on 9 March — the top 3 remains the same. Estonia’s odds have continued to shorten since Elina’s victory at Eesti Laul and are now as low as 6/1. That’s not enough to surpass Czech Republic’s Mikolas Josef and Bulgaria’s mystery super group though.
It’s worth noting that the top three are very tight, so a disappointing song reveal from Bulgaria, or a bad live performance by Mikolas or Elina, could see any of them begin to drift further down the table.
Scroll down for the full Eurovision Betting Odds Table
The remaining two spots in the top five have new occupants. Australia has narrowed to fourth place, up from sixth last week. Betfair currently has the land down under at odds of 8/1. Jessica Mauboy’s song “#We Got Love” has received tentatively positive reviews from fans, but there is a distinct number who have called it ‘generic’ and ‘underwhelming’.
Nevertheless, the bookies obviously still see potential in it and for the Australian delegation to pull off a great live performance (after all, many people were underwhelmed with Dami Im’s and Isaiah’s songs, but both still ended up in the top ten).
Snipping at Australia’s heels however, with odds hovering around 10/1, is another new entrant into the top five, Spain. Alfred and Amaia recently revealed the revamp of their entry “Tu Canción”, which has gone down well among fans. The new version has given the song added oomph, but still keeps the tenderness and emotions that so many originally fell in love with. With this climb up the odds table, the bookies seem to suggest that Spain could be onto their best result at Eurovision for 17 years, when David Civera placed sixth in 2001 with “Dile que la quiero”.
Despite having fallen out of the top five, Sweden is still sitting pretty in sixth position. With one of the longest running selection shows of national final season, it can often be difficult to keep momentum going before its Eurovision act is chosen. Benjamin Ingrosso currently leads the Melodifestivalen betting odds, with FELIX SANDMAN just behind. This suggests the main Eurovision bookies have confidence either of these two could provide Sweden with another good result in Lisbon.
However, with John Lundvik currently leading a pre-contest international fan poll and sitting third in the odds, could he cause an upset on Saturday? Only time will tell, as well as how the final Melodifestivalen result affects Sweden’s standings in the overall Eurovision odds.
The biggest fall of the top placing countries has been Finland. Saara Aalto and her monsters currently sit in eighth position, falling from fourth last week. While the studio version of “Monsters” was received with great acclaim, and the song had a commanding win at UMK last Saturday, many have criticised the staging of the song at the national final. It has been perceived as ‘messy’ and ‘confusing’ with no clear connection between it and the song’s lyrical content (not to mention that outfit).
While Saara and stage designer Brian Friedman are obviously aiming big, they may be wise to take a step back and re-think their approach. However, if they can come up with something more suitable that still lets Saara’s vocals shine, no doubt we could see Finland rise back up the odds table.
Eurovision Odds (9 March at 00:01 GMT)
Other notable changes since last week include The Netherlands climbing two places to seventh, Israel rising four places to sit in the top ten at ninth and Belarus sitting just outside the top ten at eleven, up three places.
In terms of falls, Russia, Belgium and Italy have all fallen two places, France has dropped by three to 15th, while Azerbaijan has fallen out of the top 15 all together — Aisel currently sits at 23rd, down eight places.
At the other end of the table Switzerland no longer lies in dead last. Montenegro, Iceland and San Marino have the honour of rounding out the bottom three.
The deadline for all songs to be submitted to the EBU is this Monday 12 March. No doubt once we’ve heard the remaining ten unreleased songs, in addition to revamps from the likes of Albania, Montenegro and Ukraine, things will begin to settle as the entire playing field is revealed.
What do you think of the latest odds table? Do you think Australia and Spain can stay in the top five as the last songs are revealed? Do you think Finland could fall out of the top ten all together? Let us know all your thoughts int he comments below!