The race for the Eurovision crown is a marathon, not a sprint. And while many favourites come and go, it’s often those who make a consistent climb that turn out to be number one at the end (just ask Conchita Wurst and Salvador Sobral).
Our last look-in on the Eurovision betting odds on 28 February revealed that the bookies had Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland and Sweden in the top five.
Now — on 00:01 on 9 March — the top 3 remains the same. Estonia’s odds have continued to shorten since Elina’s victory at Eesti Laul and are now as low as 6/1. That’s not enough to surpass Czech Republic’s Mikolas Josef and Bulgaria’s mystery super group though.
It’s worth noting that the top three are very tight, so a disappointing song reveal from Bulgaria, or a bad live performance by Mikolas or Elina, could see any of them begin to drift further down the table.
Scroll down for the full Eurovision Betting Odds Table
The remaining two spots in the top five have new occupants. Australia has narrowed to fourth place, up from sixth last week. Betfair currently has the land down under at odds of 8/1. Jessica Mauboy’s song “#We Got Love” has received tentatively positive reviews from fans, but there is a distinct number who have called it ‘generic’ and ‘underwhelming’.
Nevertheless, the bookies obviously still see potential in it and for the Australian delegation to pull off a great live performance (after all, many people were underwhelmed with Dami Im’s and Isaiah’s songs, but both still ended up in the top ten).
Snipping at Australia’s heels however, with odds hovering around 10/1, is another new entrant into the top five, Spain. Alfred and Amaia recently revealed the revamp of their entry “Tu Canción”, which has gone down well among fans. The new version has given the song added oomph, but still keeps the tenderness and emotions that so many originally fell in love with. With this climb up the odds table, the bookies seem to suggest that Spain could be onto their best result at Eurovision for 17 years, when David Civera placed sixth in 2001 with “Dile que la quiero”.
Despite having fallen out of the top five, Sweden is still sitting pretty in sixth position. With one of the longest running selection shows of national final season, it can often be difficult to keep momentum going before its Eurovision act is chosen. Benjamin Ingrosso currently leads the Melodifestivalen betting odds, with FELIX SANDMAN just behind. This suggests the main Eurovision bookies have confidence either of these two could provide Sweden with another good result in Lisbon.
However, with John Lundvik currently leading a pre-contest international fan poll and sitting third in the odds, could he cause an upset on Saturday? Only time will tell, as well as how the final Melodifestivalen result affects Sweden’s standings in the overall Eurovision odds.
The biggest fall of the top placing countries has been Finland. Saara Aalto and her monsters currently sit in eighth position, falling from fourth last week. While the studio version of “Monsters” was received with great acclaim, and the song had a commanding win at UMK last Saturday, many have criticised the staging of the song at the national final. It has been perceived as ‘messy’ and ‘confusing’ with no clear connection between it and the song’s lyrical content (not to mention that outfit).
While Saara and stage designer Brian Friedman are obviously aiming big, they may be wise to take a step back and re-think their approach. However, if they can come up with something more suitable that still lets Saara’s vocals shine, no doubt we could see Finland rise back up the odds table.
Eurovision Odds (9 March at 00:01 GMT)
Other notable changes since last week include The Netherlands climbing two places to seventh, Israel rising four places to sit in the top ten at ninth and Belarus sitting just outside the top ten at eleven, up three places.
In terms of falls, Russia, Belgium and Italy have all fallen two places, France has dropped by three to 15th, while Azerbaijan has fallen out of the top 15 all together — Aisel currently sits at 23rd, down eight places.
At the other end of the table Switzerland no longer lies in dead last. Montenegro, Iceland and San Marino have the honour of rounding out the bottom three.
The deadline for all songs to be submitted to the EBU is this Monday 12 March. No doubt once we’ve heard the remaining ten unreleased songs, in addition to revamps from the likes of Albania, Montenegro and Ukraine, things will begin to settle as the entire playing field is revealed.
What do you think of the latest odds table? Do you think Australia and Spain can stay in the top five as the last songs are revealed? Do you think Finland could fall out of the top ten all together? Let us know all your thoughts int he comments below!
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I think that nobody is really prepared for israel entry tommorow, a big surprize is waiting to you all(: if we we talk about something different and unique that Netta is the one this year…she is the bomb this year…count my words, she is the winner this year…by far!!!!
Portugal song is a hyped song… more you listen more you love it, like last year… it has a beautiful beat… listen Portugal song 5 times, and you are officially addictive.
agree
Portugal, a possible Eurovision Winner in 2018, again… A modern and contemporary ballad song, complex, great voice, an addictive, emotional and hyped song, more you listen, more you love it… The song will be revamped, and extended to 3 minutes, and in the last minute should raise the tone and accelerate a beat… This song could win Eurovision again
What’s wrong with the Cyprus song 66/1
Hi , I don’t think like you think . Spain have an a beautiful song that speak about the FIRST LOVE , Alfred and Amaia here in Spain, are claiming the love without borders.
Italy , is beautiful, the speak about the attacks suffered in Egypt, France and Spain.
Haven’t they learned anything from previous years? Same song, same style. So predictable for Ireland, and not enough good each time for the final.
Belgium have really strong entry , top 5 for them is a safe bet , we havent heard it live , but im sure sennek will deliver , Belgium should be in top 3 in the betting odds. If i was a betting guy , i would put my money on it.
Yay for Czechia! I hope they actually do well in the contest. It’s one of the few actually decent songs this year.
We Got Love
iTunes:
#1 Australia
#36 Finland
#38 Sweden
#67 Denmark
#73 Spain
Well, the chart performance is pretty good so far. I can see why the bookies put this top 5.
I don’t remember anything of the song for Australia, it is not a top song sorry, how can it chart so high?
Spain and Australia is very overrated. Spain should end the final in the 26th place and Australia 20th.
Agreed! Spain has one of the weakest songs this year. I don’t get the hype.
Its almost as if no country wants to win this year, shocking quality
Mediterranean countries will break the stage this year. (Malta, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain) Estonia and Czech rep. are are the exception.
Bulgaria being the favourites makes me think someone behind the scenes must be in the know in terms of their song.
Bulgaria is first because of their great entries in 2016 and 2017. We don’t know the song yet so if the song isn’t that good, they will easily fall from where they are now.
I’m ok with Czech Republic and Estonia.
Australia and Spain are too high for me. But Australia is Australia unfortunately. As for Spain, the song is fine, but I wouldn’t put them in the top 5.
Haven`t you all learned by now that bettings odds are just there to make money,do you seriously believe in that odds.LMAO.
13 time say “Mercy”. And then you say that the position of France is ridiculous. That is political, but with a decent song, right?
Mercy, Mercy, je vais bien merci
Mercy, Mercy, je vais bien merci
Mercy, Mercy, je vais bien merci
Mercy, Mercy, je vais bien merci
France’s song is missing something, I guess they need another dozen of ”Mercy”, that will fit very well to make the message seem more important.
And I still can´t believe that Bulgaria is TOP 1, we still didn´t hear that fantastic #1 song! Come on people.
I do not know which song is worse Finland or Estonia! Come on people.
Bulgaria tops the odds list and we haven’t heard the song yet.
RIDICULOUS
Spain and Australia have good songs but both are really overrated. But France,
Portugal and Cyprus are REALLY underrated. France 15th, Portugal 17th and Cyprus 26th. Bettors are drunk or what ?
I don t believe in these odds, some examples: Last year, Italy was in pole position during more than 2 months before the contest, in the end they ended ip 6th…. Last year, Blanche and City Lights for Belgium was stuck around place 10 to 12 in the odds for many weeks, she became 4th…. In 2015, Loic Nottet for Belgium was predicted a place around 12 to 15, he ended up 4th…. And like this, I can continue… Here my top 10: Places 1 to 5: Greece, France, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland Places 6 to 10: Italy, Germany, Estonia,… Read more »
City Lights was straight to the 2nd position after its release. You can find an article here in Wiwi.
Yes, but then it dropped, certainly after the bad rehearsals
Indeed, these odds are completely crazy. I expect Greece, France and especially Belgium to do a lot better and I don t expect Estonia, Sweden, Australia in the top 5.
And peopel, let s wait for the rehearsals, odds will change a lot!
And in the end, Belgium will be in top 5, you’ll see
yes, the more I hear it the more I like it
I don’t ask people where are they from, but when I see that you are in such favor of refugees, I want to ask you where are you from. You don’t have to say the country, but at least if it’s north, south, west, east. I bet you are not from east, because if you say the ”R” word in the east, you will regret it.
You’ve said it all. Who is the fool? How can you breathe surrounded by extreme liberals? All you want is to predict? Well France is not doing well in the bookies, so why do you predict France will do well? I’ve told you that countries that can’t even bet, will not vote for that abomination from France. There is no clue that France will do well, still you think you’re smarter. The joke is on you.
Listen to France’s song and have some mercy and compassion for people who aren’t doing as well as you.
The reality is exactly the opposite of what you think.
Estonia will do better with televoters than jury, just like Il Volo 2015.
Sobral is nothing original, the genre was not invented by Sobral family, but it exists since early 20th century.
France has no better chances than Lisa Angell 2015. You have no idea how many Europeans will hate this song if they found out is about refugees. France is lucky if nobody will understand what is it about.
True. Mercy will be the Rise Like a Phoenix in terms of its polarity. Those who are compassionate towards refugees will love the song, but those who aren’t will hate it unfortunately.
Mercy will not happen. Will just not happen.
Last place. Well done San Marino!
I’m still angry about the FRAUD selection process in San Marino. It’s such a shame for the Eurovision spirit.
Send Sara instead you stupid idiots!
I don’t know if there was a fraud in the selection but it’s so impressive that San Marino can’t stand even the slightest possibility of doing good in Eurovision and killing it on the spot as a principle. I’m super impressed. Sara was probably not a winner but she had a chance to be liked and respected by many.
Well done San Marino, you just missed your best shot!
Strange how United kingdom’s entry is being completely ignored I think it will be top 10 although Czech republic are my favourite to win
I don’t get how Bulgaria are favourites – based on absolutely nothing!!
They’ve had 2 decent years in a row – but that’s not a basis for decent odds!
The Netherlands are rising and sitting comfortable, ready for the kill at the right time.. This is based on the quality, his voice and stage presence I bet.. People know he is gonna bring it.. Can’t wait..! We’re in for a treat
That will never happen, a place around 7 to 12, yes
Here the new official clip of the french song : https://youtu.be/6ft3_DOajNY
It’s kinda sad that some countries are always rated high regardless of the Entry.
I could totally understand why Dami Im ended up in the Top 5. It was a great Song, good performed and the staging was also very good. But that wasn’t the case with last year and definitely not this year. I like Jessica but her Song is absolutely nothing special for me. It’s not even a good pop song – just mediocre. I get the feeling it’s rated so good just because it’s Australias Entry. Same goes for Sweden.
I only need Portugal to win this year as well
Such a beautiful song full of emotions! Exactly what we need to win Eurovision
I disagree with the odds this year, at least so far..
LMAO San Marino is now dead last for choosing a generic piece of ****.
Before the winner announcement of 1in360, San Marino was in 33rd place (possibly thanks to Sara de Blue’s studio version of her song).
If she give an outstanding performance in ESC, San Marino’s odds will probably go even higher.
With Jessika’s mediocre singing and Jenifer’s cringy rap, there isn’t so much hope for San Marino.
That’s 100% true.
I do not know what annoys me more: The selection of the song (again Mans’ “Hero” – but so much worse and now with a annoying rap part from one untalented “rapper” lady) or that damn fraud selection process in San Marino at all. BOOO!
I think many from TOP 10 in bettings odds wili be out of TOP 10. Czech Republic favorites number 2 wili be out of TOP 5 in final , place from 6 to 8 Estonia favorites number 3, will be simillar like France 2011, my prediction from 8 to 14 place depends of televote Spain favorites number 4 , wili be biggest flop of the year, my prediction in final from 16 to 20 place. Australia favorites number 5 on betting odds (EBU baby) wili be out of TOP 5 , but in TOP 10 thanks again to overrated points… Read more »
Iceland is definitely out.
How is Cyprus so low? it’s the best bop this year
They think Australia and Finland will do better than Cyprus. To them the songs are similar and since Cyprus hasn’t been in the top 10 since 2004 in contrast to Australia and Finland it’s good enough reason to place it low. And I’m pretty sure they classified it as fanwank.
A lot of people think the reason that Greece never selected Eleni (a very famous singer keen to do Eurovision and finance her participation – a network’s dream) was because she can’t sing live, in addition to notions of anti Albanian sentiment held by a few Greeks. If Eleni can’t deliver the song live (and given that it’s guaranteed to be a high energy dance number, making a bad vocal performance very possible) then Cyprus will be slaughtered by the jury, as the song is fast food in every sense of the word. The lyrics are nonsensical and vapid, her… Read more »
Saara Aalto’s NF staging for Monster was a hot mess. The bookies aren’t crazy over an unfinished product. So far Spain and Belgium are the most promising followed by Italy and then Australia.
Spain is also an unfinished product (they’re gonna change things and the revamp doesnt look promising, tbh) and we havent seen belgiums staging yet.
Spain is extremely cheesy and will bomb big time – just like the overhyped Spanish entries did in 2015 and 2016
The predictions are all over the place, and will happen like always. When your favorite doesn’t do well, you say :
-I liked the studio version, but the live version changed everything (FYROM 2017)
-I liked the NF version, but it wasn’t that good on the big stage (Italy 2017)
People can’t just say : ”I was wrong, I have egg on my face now”.
My prediction about no. 1
Estonia, Spain, Germany, Sweden (if Felix).
A fan of Spain, ok I understand all now. The worst kind of fans in the Esc.
Actually I’m from Eastern Europe.
sureeeeeeeee lol
hahaha it’s true, I am from Eastern Europe
The fact that you don’t believe me, makes me think that maybe people really underestimate Spain more than I thought.
I have said a fan OF Spain not a fan from Spain, you are definetely stupid….
I understand that you passionately love France’s song, and it’s fine.
The worst fans of esc are the impolite who insult, be of the nationality they are
Where is the insult?
Keep living in a bubble and later you will say that your tastes are ”the biggest crime”, because are left in the semifinal.
The live version actually was worse for Macedonia and the Eurovision version actually was worse for Italy lmao.
Yes but still, don’t you hear those words too often when people were just wrong?
People are never wrong in terms of opinion….. It’s just that they are on the minority side and are proven to be incorrect by another group.
Opinion is never wrong, but when people try to predict it’s something else. And let’s face it, many try to be right, to guess who will win.
Why nobody has talked during the summer about Gabbani and Alma and what they did after ESC?
These two artists are abandoned now because they have failed to give the fans what they expected.
It’s cruel, really. All this building bridges is over if you are not the winner.
Is it too soon to talk about a spanish win exactly 50 years after their first (and almost only) victory?
Yup…. Cause it ain’t happening this year. Maybe next year.
Yep, please rest it up for now. It’s a bad combination for these comment sections: Haters + rabid portion of spanish fandom.
They both so young and not so used to the big stage, why put pressure on them.
Yes, that is too soon. The sickly sweet Spanish song will end up bottom 5.
It’s so good to see that eurofans recognize talent when they see it. Spain winner.
Considering that Bulgaria is first and they still haven’t released the song, I’m not so sure about these predictions :p
The odds are a bit all over the place at the moment. Germany and France have much better chances of winning than many in the top spots.
I have soured on Bulgaria after Kristian’s bad behavior last year
Same time last year we had (approx. in decimal)
Italy 2.5
Belgium 4
Sweden 6
Serbia 10
Russia 11
Australia 12
Portugal 16
Romania 16
Bulgaria 20
Greece 20
That’s 7/10 correct for top 10.
Serbia tho…
I swear, gamblers are ruining the fun for everyone, making people think these odds are important. They are just using the ESC as another thing to bet on, most don’t probably even watch it. The earlier they place a bet, the more money they’ll get if the song wins. That’s why they like to bet on songs that haven’t come out yet. Not to mention fans like to place a bet on a song, and if it’s early days, it won’t take more than a couple bets to send a song up in the odds like it’s destined for greatness.… Read more »
Exactly. After the rehearsals start, then the odds can point who are the most probable qualifiers on the semis or the big players of the grand final. For now, it’s just gambling.
They’re not ‘gamblers’. Just a bunch of ppl from their own respective countries being super proud of their entries. I remember how nuts the Armenians were for Aram MP3 in 2014 that they had to suspend it.
Estonia is third: “That’s not enough to surpass Czech Republic’s Mikolas Josef”. Ha ha ha stupid oddschecker. If you calculate Estonia are 2nd in odds table
We are all in agreement 🙂 The reason I mentioned gamblers in particular, is probably because I keep seeing them everywhere. People talk about who to bet on in terms of making money. Some of them flat out say that they are only interested in making money. The same people bet on everything: eurovision, xfactor, big brother, sports…you name it, they place a bet on it. I don’t know who in the ESC bubble thought it was a great idea to start staring at the odds and speculating on them endlessly like it’s the word of god, but it’s starting… Read more »
Sorry, this reply was meant for the thread above. I don’t know how it ended here. Must have clicked on the wrong ‘reply’.
If one loves opera, then the song for Estonia is a disgrace for opera. It is a terrible song, sorry. And Spain, how sweet they are, but that’s all they are, sorry for that too. I don’t undestand these polls? Listen to the singing of many artists, they don’t have strong enough vocals. Saara Aalto from Finland would sing many of the songs much better, she has classical training. She would slay the Estonian song.
“Montenegro, Iceland and San Marino have the honour of rounding out the bottom three” LOL
I can see reason why San Marino is now dead last with the bookies, imagine what could have happened if Sara de Blue had been chosen over Jessika, Jenifer’s bad rapping and those distracting dancing robots!
I can tell you what would have happened: A safe place in the finals for San Marino.
But for some reason they prefer to send crap as usual.
And what shampoo did Saara Aalto used yesterday ?
I can tell you what would have happened: A safe place in the finals for San Marino.
But for some reason they prefer to send crap as usual.
Sorry, wrong reply. I don’t know Saara Aalto’s shampoo. 😉
Saara doesn’t use shampoo. She is born that way.
Schwartzkopf Gliss -products. She’s a cover girl ?