First it was France, then it was Belarus and now it’s Spain calling! And following the votes of the OGAE fan club there, Israel’s Netta has gone three for three, once again securing top points in the OGAE Poll 2018 of international Eurovision fans. This is total slayage…

It’s the third perfect score in a row for the Israeli singer and her upbeat track “Toy”. At this point last year, pre-contest favourite Francesco Gabbani from Italy was in the lead but he hadn’t managed a perfect score of 36 points. Netta really is taking things higher.

Other countries have are going toe-to-toe with Netta in the consistency stakes.

Following their earlier 10 points from Belarus, France’s Madame Monsieur secured another 10 here, while Finland’s Saara Aalto received 8 points. The “Monsters” singer earlier received 8 points from France.

Rounding out the top 10, Cyprus’ Eleni Foureira takes 7 points from the Iberian nation and Australia’s Jessica Mauboy receives 6 points.

Germany makes its first appearance in the OGAE Poll 2018 after receiving 2 points from Spain. It might just have been two points, but it’s enough to ensure a place for Germany on the scoreboard.

Spain’s act — Amaia and Alfred — obviously couldn’t receive points from their own club. They did not receive any points from France or Belarus.

Full votes from OGAE Spain below

12 – Israel
10 – France
8 – Finland
7 – Cyprus
6 – Australia
5 – Sweden
4 – Czech Republic
3 – Belgium
2 – Germany
1 – Italy

OGAE Poll 2018 so far

With another douze points, Israel is extending its lead. But there’s change elsewhere in the top. France along with Finland — who both shared 10 points before the Spanish vote — are now second and third respectively. In reaching those new heights, they’ve pushed down Czech Republic and Sweden, who are now both in fourth and fifth place respectively with only one point between them.

Unlike OGAE France and Belarus, Spain didn’t vote for Bulgaria. They did, however, Cyprus the best score Eleni has seen so far. Showing that it beats to its own drum, Spain snubbed Denmark, Greece and Austria (each of which receive points from France) and Estonia and Norway (both of whom got points from Belarus.

Interestingly, Estonia — currently the bookies’ second favourite to win — has only managed three points so far. But France, which is the bookies’ ninth favourite to win, is currently fighting for the OGAE poll win.

We should note that the members of the OGAE fan club do not necessarily represent the tastes of Europe at large. And indeed these points come before we’ve seen rehearsals or final staging. In eleven years, the poll has only correctly picked the winner four times.

OGAE Poll 2018 scores so far

Israel 36
France 20
Finland 18
Sweden 17
Czech Republic 16
Australia 14
Belgium 11
Bulgaria 8
Cyprus 8
Denmark 7
Italy 7
Greece 4
Estonia 3
Germany 2
Norway 2
Austria 1

Countries that are not listed have yet to receive any points from voting clubs.

There are over 40 OGAE fan clubs across Europe, including nations who have withdrawn from the contest such as Andorra and Turkey. They’ll reveal their scores in the coming weeks as we draw closer to the contest. Stay tuned for more updates!

FOR MORE OGAE POLL 2018 NEWS CLICK HERE

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AngieP
Guest
AngieP

Cyprus got some points here. Israel is heading this poll obviously. Also glad for France.

Chris stark
Guest

Although this year is very underwhelming, there are a few gems in Finland, Portugal, Denmark, France and Ukraine, So let’s enjoy these small mercies (mercy, mercy)

Kryyto
Guest
Kryyto

This OGAE thing is okay to know which songs are more appealing to the audience, more radio-friendly stuff (Israel, Czech, Sweden, Australia all are) but that’s it.

Eurovision results are based on performances and apart from blind people, the rest will value visuals/acting a lot. That’s when Moldova with 0 OGAE points finishes 3rd.

Both 2017 and 2016 OGAE winners finished 6th.

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Timmy
Guest
Timmy

Meaningless votes.

Davve
Guest
Davve

Don’t read it then.

Boy
Guest

@Lila @, Mor. If your Think the is amazing, Good för your. If a wom en sounds like a chiken, its not Amazing for me. Se hade diffrent fäste of Music. Font till le what taste i should hade. Accrpt tjat. Israel or Trance are not vinna finn.

Mor
Guest
Mor

[email protected] dude drink cold water it will help you relax lol.
Netta perfection!!

Paul
Guest
Paul

“Israel are only going to win because it’s about #metoo”

Behave! She’s going to win because it’s an absolute banger!

NickC
Guest
NickC

I prepare a computer algorithm which calculates win probability based on all available information each day (odds, you tube views, you tube likes, spotify streams, OGAE voting, itunes charts- with equal weights for all, and btw, I am a PhD in economics). Last year, it predicted Italy to win before the rehearsals, but put Portugal second and Bulgaria third, and after rehearsals Portugal rose to top.

And this is the first year OGAE voting seems to be very accurate. I genuinely believe the race is between Israel and France.

Here is the top 10, in case anyone interested:

1 Israel
2 France
3 Belgium
4 Australia
5 Sweden
6 Estonia
7 Bulgaria
8 Czech Rep
9 Austria
10 Norway

Paul
Guest
Paul

I’m not sure this is the best use of your PhD (!!) but I love a stat! Do you publish the daily results anywhere online ? Would be interested in seeing them

Nickc
Guest
Nickc

Nah, I do it just for my own pleasure. I do not publish anywhere.

NickC
Guest
NickC

Here is the complete list with probabilities. You can interpret probabilities as the percentage of available score. For instance, for youtube views, I take the youtube views of Israel as 100, and calculate a relative score for all others. Same for all other components:

1 Israel 99.3
2 France 90.9
3 Belgium 90.5
4 Australia 87.7
5 Sweden 82.3
6 Estonia 81.9
7 Bulgaria 80.9
8 Czech Rep 77.0
9 Austria 76.0
10 Norway 72.3
11 Finland 70.9
12 Belarus 68.8
13 Spain 65.8
14 Cyprus 62.6
15 Italy 61.6
16 Germany 61.6
17 Ukraine 60.5
18 Greece 60.0
19 Azerbaijan 59.8
20 Portugal 58.8
21 The Netherlands 57.4
22 Denmark 54.9
23 FYR Macedonia 50.7
24 Latvia 46.3
25 UK 46.0
26 Lithuania 44.2
27 Switzerland 41.4
28 Russia 37.0
29 Ireland 36.5
30 Moldova 34.9
31 Albania 32.1
32 Armenia 31.9
33 San Marino 29.1
34 Poland 28.8
35 Malta 27.4
36 Hungary 25.3
37 Serbia 23.0
38 Croatia 22.8
39 Romania 15.3
40 Slovenia 14.9
41 Georgia 13.5
42 Iceland 9.1
43 Montenegro 8.8

Kolia
Guest
Kolia

Israel will win the televote, France will win the jury vote, but the winner will be a 3rd like Jamala.

Mor
Guest
Mor

Israel is the winner!!!

Paul
Guest
Paul

Australia?

Kolia
Guest
Kolia

Maybe Australia, Belgium, Germany, Belarus…(don’t underestimate Belarus like the bubble does).

Nickc
Guest
Nickc

Belarus is 12th.

Kolia
Guest
Kolia

If you calculate instagram and facebook likes, Belarus is first with 50,000 likes and the second doesn’t have 1,000 likes. Why are views more important than likes, all contrary, views are spread to different videos.

NickC
Guest
NickC

Oh, I do not count those. Let me try for next round.- but I do not have facebook, or instagram so I would appreciate it if you could provide me the numbers.

Kolia
Guest
Kolia

I don’t have either, but these stars have visible accounts, I guess. The point is that Alekseev has indeed huge (and I mean HUGE) amount of likes even if he posts a picture of his breakfast, but if all come from the same 2 or 3 countries does not help him too much. I still think he is underrated.

Yaa
Guest
Yaa

He also has around 9 million views on Youtube if you include all the versions, Navsegda came first and has 5.4 mil.

up!
Guest
up!

This is really interesting… I’m happy that my two favourites Israel and France are in the race ;-)…

Yaa
Guest
Yaa

I think we should cancel the contest, we already got a winner!

Lila
Guest
Lila

@Boy Netta is an amazing artest.Saara is not something speical at all… we see it on the odds ..Bo one impresd by Saara alto..i dont even know her.

Mor
Guest
Mor

Boy…Whatever you say ..keep dreaming sweetie..Netta is the best this year ..deal with it lol.and who is everyone exaclly??? Are you blind?

Mor
Guest
Mor

@ugly alferd 5 Im a thin girl and i will vote for her…you are stupid ugly men..i hope wiwi will block you!!

David
Guest
David

GO NETTA

Mor
Guest
Mor

[email protected] poor you …Atleast Netta is number 1 in every list..Where is Saara ??? Lol…keep envy!!!!!!!
Jerusalem 19 easy for Netta.

EUROFAN MEXICO
Guest
EUROFAN MEXICO

OGAE IS FAKE JA JA PROTUGAL ANOTHER 0 POINTS FROM SPAIN PRO DIOS QUE LES PASA

Vinona
Guest
Vinona

What is it exactly that you like about Israel`s song? I try to like it but I just don`t think it is that special. Netta seems like an interesting young artist though and some of the stuff she does in night clubs are interesting but also quite controversial. I think ESC is maybe not the best venue for her to break through, if that is what she is trying. She has very little experience and let`s see how it sounds on stage. You should get more credit to other countries as well and not decide the competition long before it… Read more »

Mor
Guest
Mor

Well the facy is that most of the pepole dont think like you about Netta( 20 millions on youtube ..netta is far more speical artist than Saara ..Monsters is awful and we hear that kind of song lots of time before….

AurelianTamisan
Guest
AurelianTamisan

Netta is nothing special… no, I’m wrong, Netta seems to be a quite good artist, with good vocals, a good singer overally. She could be considered better than Saara. But, she is not favourite to win Eurovision neither because of her voice, neither because she’s better than Saara. This is the trend, American movies, on the streets, politically… everywhere we’re talking about women, black people, homosexuals and their rights… Eurovision is no more a contest about music. Netta is not favourite for her musical abillities or for her song, Netta is favourite for a message. If this continues to go… Read more »

AurelianTamisan
Guest
AurelianTamisan

Nobody likes ‘Toy’ as it seems to happen, everybody goes with the trend and the trend is to appreciate this kind of messages, like in Israel’s song. Nobody is enthusiastic about that song, let’s be honest. But also don’t put Saara higher than where her place is, she came in with a mediocre song that has no chance to gain a top position in Eurovision. Personally I hope she doesn’t reach the final, it would be shameful when ‘Blackbird’ doesn’t do it, but ‘Monsters’ does.

Joe
Guest
Joe

So help me god, OGAE, I’m gonna get so pissed if y’all jinx this.

oli
Guest
oli

Guys, tickets are sold out since this morning at 6AM… Portugal messed it up

Frisian esc
Guest
Frisian esc

Why is that wrong?

Elena
Guest
Elena

I’m from Romania and yes is over. No more tickets. So many fans wanted to be in Lisbon in May. Enjoy!

Tom
Guest
Tom

Nobody says how many people voted. This means there were only a few people. These scores and reviews means absolutely nothing.

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

Number of people voting can be found in the table on their website.
comment image?ssl=1
In total there are about 3000 people voting.

Tom
Guest
Tom

And in real ESC voting there are how many people? 😀

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

Neither EBU nor Digame have ever released the exact numbers. In a press release in 2010 they claim “more than 10 million calls and SMS messages were processed”, so I’d guess it’s around 15-20 million now.
There are also some 200 jury members.

Tom
Guest
Tom

This is what I wanted to day. 3000 is almost nothing against millions, plus, live performance might change everything.

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

A sample size of 3000 is actually very decent for an opinion poll. But that’s not the problem. The reason why the OGAE is not a good predictor of results in Eurovision is
1) the sample is not representative, and
2) the voting is structured completely differently.
Even if OGAE had a million members, their poll would be a flawed indicator. It’s not supposed to predict anything. Still, it’s better than nothing.

wei cho
Guest
wei cho

Why everybody thinks Hungary will do well? What is the difference between Hungary 2018 and Montenegro 2016?

Curve
Guest
Curve

Well, Montenegro 2016 sounded too monotonous with all their vocals and all. Plus, the lyrics are too basic. They are all unlike Hungary this year. I hope this answers your question.

hh
Guest
hh

I hope Hungary flops. Shouting mess!

Gobio
Guest
Gobio

Whoat? I think that every Eurovision fan describe every song with electric guitar as” rock “. ” Viszlát nyar” is a metalcore song with good vocals and lyrics, and also quite melodic compared to many standard metal songs. Montenegro 2016 is a mess and the lyrics we’re bad.

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

So the question is if Israel will break the 500 points mark. Gabbani almost did it last year with 497 points. 44 clubs voting means a maximum of 528 points, which isn’t a lot of leeway.

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

Just realized it’s 516 points as you can’t vote for your own country.

disgusted
Guest
disgusted

can you just stop spoiling the votes? it’s disgusting to go and see the OGAE votes and specifically the 12 points before anything else when I’m really interested in it…

Robyn Gallagher
Editor

Our house style is to generally avoid “clickbait” style headlines and to be as straightforward as possible. We’ve been using this style for OGAE posts since we started covering them in 2015.

We’d be interested to hear from other readers on this topic. Would y’all like the results to not be mentioned in the title and image?

Z
Guest
Z

No clickbait. Internet is full shocked faces saying ”Eurovision Reaction to….”. Enough with clickbait.

Nod83
Guest
Nod83

I like the current Wiwi style, Robyn. Happy to do without clickbait headings to articles.

Frisian esc
Guest
Frisian esc

Breaking: OGAE Spain just revealed their votes and you won’t believe what happened next!

Davve
Guest
Davve

Then do not click on the article about it. At least then you don’t get the full vote. Wiwibloggs reports on everything ESC.. And you know that

Madrileño
Guest
Madrileño

Australia y Suecia fuera de la lista.
Dont Agree at all and Australia nope and Sweden this time nope guys.
Sorry
France to many points
Please respect opinions dont answer with hate specialli someones or I will report thanks.

Malma
Guest
Malma

I don’t think Spain should be on the list either! So boringggg

Malma
Guest
Malma

Sweden**** Autocorrted sorry!

Curve
Guest
Curve

Keep it. I like it that way.

escESCesc
Guest
escESCesc

Oh the jealous spanish fan will report lol we are afraid oh the jealous spanish fan is angry because their entry doesn’t get points on this poll but keep the faith and let France and their deserved points in peace.

escESCesc
Guest
escESCesc

Moreover “this toO many points” come from your country lol.

Weißbrot
Guest
Weißbrot

I feel like France is so going to flop this year… Except for the lyrics ,which nobody even understands, cause they’re French, there is nothing that really sticks to your head. It’s not a bad song, but I think it’ll get lost…

underground
Guest
underground

I can predict the same for your faves hungary and germany, what’s your problem with France? Jealousy? Free hate? Stupidity? Keep criticize keep talking about the french song it makes publicity for them.
I have my answer in fact, to wish a flop for a song or other you are not a kind person and certainly stupid….. Mercy won’t be certainly lost but you you are lost for sure when we read your comments in each articles, so the frebch song doesn’t need support from people like you, it’s a positive chic and clever song, all the contrary of you.

Madrileño
Guest
Madrileño

Be Realistic not everyone like that tipe of music.
And calm down he did not say anything bad.
RELAX……………TILA

underground
Guest
underground

Have I say that all people have to like it ? Not, certainly not, so you be realistic maybe…..I don’t need lesson from you, I explain just to wish a flop and to criticize constantly FRANCE without objectivity and only with cheap arguments won’t do people less like the french song and more like your faves…..only stupid, bad and jealous persons do that….

Weißbrot
Guest
Weißbrot

I never critizised France before, wtf is your Problem? I understand that you’re probably a 13 year old child that Needs to Insult People for no reason, but could you do something about that? Thank you, you’re freaking annoying.

underground
Guest
underground

Lol never ! read your comments and tell me who is the child ? ,this reader is definetely pathetic…..

It's earbleeding
Guest
It's earbleeding

No one will understand Hungary’s lyrics either…

Eurovisionfan12
Guest
Eurovisionfan12

So you compare Hungary and France which they are two totally different genres

Curve
Guest
Curve

We still don’t know about it. Everything will be revealed once it’s already the grand final voting.

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

For a contest that last year “celebrated diversity”, the preferences of their fans are anything but. Very predictable.

Craig
Guest
Craig

I completely agree. It seems that all people are voting for is female pop this year 🙁 Israel, Cyprus and Finland are all favourites and all they are, are generic pop songs.

Israel is a little wacky yes but overall it’s still just a pop song. I hope they all flop.

No Name
Guest
No Name

Ogae votes are the most predictable thing about Eurovision, why even bother

Sasha
Guest
Sasha

So winning the OGAE poll means you only have a 36% chance of winning Eurovision, while losing OGAE means you have a 64% chance of winning Eurovision. It seams the odds will be against Israel come around final day.

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

The second part of that statistic doesn’t make sense!

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

There are 42 countries losing, which means a losing song has on average a 1.5% chance of winning Eurovision. In other words, a song winning the OGAE poll has 20 times higher chance of winning Eurovision than a ‘losing’ song does.

stefanraab
Guest
stefanraab

These OGAE polls are a joke, stop spamming unnecessary articles of this completely irrelevant stuff.

Jonas
Guest
Jonas

It’s not really irrelevant. Unimportant maybe, but some people will find it interesting.

stefanraab
Guest
stefanraab

In my language “irrelevant” means unimportant… isn’t it quite the same

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

Irrelevant would be posting the OGAE poll results on a baking website or such. It is, however, unimportant.

stefanraab
Guest
stefanraab

ok 😀 then i mean unimportant

Lasha
Guest
Lasha

Than*

Davve
Guest
Davve

Still you click on the article about it and comments…

Jonas
Guest
Jonas

At this point last year, we had already seen Francesco’s stage show, so we knew what to expect – who knows how Toy will play on screen? Is she going to be stuck behind a vocal looper for the whole song? Which of the many style choices demonstrated in the video will Netta opt for?

The actual performance counts for so much, and I have every expectation that Netta will totally smash it, but still, there is so much we have yet to see.

NoGeoblocks
Guest
NoGeoblocks

I actually think that France will be the one to flop this year… Mercy is a weak song with an OK performer. It is a step down for France after 2 very good years.
Finland is a fanwank… So fans are voting.
Macedonia – my favorite – is with 0 points… So what do I know 🙂
Good luck with to Netta, Eye Cue and everyone!

underground
Guest
underground

France a weak song……certainly only for your weak brain….

Erasmus
Guest
Erasmus

I think “Mercy” is much stronger than “Requiem” and on the same level as Amir’s song for me. And live it’s better than both of them

Kyna
Guest
Kyna

*pretends to be shocked*
I know that it’s too early and there’s only 3 countries, but I’m starting to feel that Finland is overrated, same goes to Sweden and Australia (not gonna name another obvious one, just in case).

Weißbrot
Guest
Weißbrot

I mean, not that These polls mean anything at all, but I’m kinda glad that my Country (Germany) already managed to get some Points… And I already know, that my number one of the year (Hungary) won’t get any Points at all.

stefanraab
Guest
stefanraab

I’m sure, that Hungary will do really well with both, the televoting and the juries at Eurovision, so you really shouldn’t care about OGAE polls.

Weißbrot
Guest
Weißbrot

Yeah, I don’t really care about the OGAE polls, they’re mostly wrong. I think Hungary could win the televote in semi 2 (or at least score high), not sure about the juries, but I’m sure they’ll get through.

stefanraab
Guest
stefanraab

Juries will love it because it is something different / new. In addition, the entry has a very high quality (all who do not recognize this, just have a problem with the genre) and is at the same time sung and performed with a lot of passion. Everything fits here

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

People who will love the Hungarian entry are *generally* not members of Eurovision fan clubs. 😉

Roy Moreno
Guest
Roy Moreno

Hoping for the best and for an amazing Eurovision season
I just want to go through at least one Eurovision season ending it with a win (from Israel)
Glad to see Finland doing well, not feeling the same about France
I think Mercy could have been better with a more interesting melody and rhythem