One day you’re in, the next day you’re out. And only one day after taking second spot in the betting odds, Czech Republic’s Mikolas Josef has fallen back to third position.
That’s because Equinox – Bulgaria’s Eurovision 2018 act – have common framewerked there way into second spot overnight.
Bulgaria are in the blue at a number of betmakers, meaning their odds are shortening. Skybet, for example, have moved Equinox from 13/2 to 11/2. Mikolas on the other hand appears to have lost momentum: Marathon Bet haven’t moved him from 6/1 and certain agencies actually have him drifting.
Estonia is on the move, but in the wrong direction. Elina Nechayeva has fallen to fourth. Yesterday Ladbrokes had her at 7/1. Now she sits at 8/1. The dressing down at bookmakers is linked to problems with her national final projection dress performance. Unless broadcaster ERR can find €65,000, homegirl will have to do without the dress on stage in Lisbon.
Australia’s Jessica Mauboy is on the move, in the right direction. Rave reviews on the preview party circuit have seen her odds shorten. The “We Got Love” hitmaker is in the blue with several bookmakers. Bet365 have moved her from 12/1 to 10/1 overnight.
Sweden remains in sixth. Benjamin Ingrosso skipped Israel Calling, which may explain why his momentum has dried up. A performance at Eurovision In Concert tonight in Amsterdam may alter things.
Norway and France have swapped spots. Alexander Rybak sits in seventh, with odds as short as 16/1 at William Hill. Madame Monsieur can also be found for 16/1 in eighth, but have longer odds elsewhere.
Belgium’s Sennek took a nosedive in the odds as a result of lukewarm reception to her performance at Israel Calling. She’s now levelled off with bookmakers, with her odds out of the red. Bet365 has “A Matter of Time” at 22/1, compared to 16/1 yesterday.
Greece rounds out the Top 10 with odds as short as 22/1 at Paddpower. Yianna Terzi’s ethnic ballad “Oneiro Mou” has the edge on eleventh place Spain.
You can see odds, accurate as of 12:12pm CET from Oddschecker below:
If you want advice on how to make sense of it you can head here.
The Dutch, Finnish and Italian songs are not Eurovision fans favourites but the televoters (ordinary people spending their saturday night with a beer) will love them. Israel… will we even see it in the finals??
I’m sorry for I’m about to say right now,but Europeans have such a great music and you guys really don’t know how to reward a great song,a good instrumental and a great voice. You are not professionals but damnn some things are obvious. I want to give major credit to Eugent Bushpepa for the terrific performance and I’m rooting for him. But I would choose Israel as a winner even though the song got stuck in my head,it’s CLEARLY not the best song of Europe. Love from Canada!
Wouldn’t choose Israel*
As far as Betting Odds are concerned, nobody but seriously NOBODY cares who stays at the 2nd or 3rd position … The main point, the most relevant aspect of all this for this year’s edition is that Israel wins at all costs no matter what so that: a) fans can throw some shaming pies at Salvador Sobral’s face and maybe leave Caetano Veloso wondering “What the f*** is going on here?” so that the message “Your music perception and conviction plays no role in our party kindergarten.” is spoken as loud as possible. b) Eurovision goes back to lose its… Read more »
Israel will not qualify. She is ridiculous. Eurovision song contest is not a joke. Be realistic, please.
Charles is joking, don’t you see?
Nice work, buddy! It made me smile :)))
It’s not like the bookies is an indication to trust either . In 2016 same bookies predicted Russia would win with a huge gap over other songs. While Jamala was 8th. The day of the final even. Same bookies even predicted Jessica Andersson would win MF this year. So who really cares
I wasn’t into the video, but when I watched their live performance I suddenly “got” the song. If they bring that energy to the finals, I would be happy with them winning (although my actual top 2 are the not-qualifying Switzerland and the borderline top-10 Netherlands)
Yeah, not with that weak song. It’s jury bait but the public won’t care. Israel is most likely the winner here.
I wouldn’t be so sure, ESC fans might like Netta’s song, but casual viewers? I’m not so sure, it might be ‘too alternative’ and ‘weird’, especially for older people. I guess we’ll see in May
Israel will not qualify. She is ridiculous. Eurovision song contest is not a joke. Be realistic, please.
Here’s what my first scorecard looks like, after listening to the songs–for the very FIRST time, I might add–and watching the videos, also for the first time: 9.56 Estonia 9.50 Italy 9.49 Serbia 9.47 Netherlands 9.47 Denmark 9.45 Georgia 9.44 Israel 9.43 France 9.42 Portugal 9.41 Albania 9.39 Spain My qualifiers: Semi 1: Estonia, Israel, Albania, Armenia, Austria, Lithuania, Greece, Czech Republic, Belgium, Switzerland. Semi 2: Serbia, Netherlands, Denmark, Georgia, Romania, Sweden, Norway, Hungary, Ukraine, Australia. Come the middle of this week, I will listen to these songs and watch the videos again. Whether my opinion changes radically for one… Read more »
And where is Bulgaria, for God’s sake?!!! Not even in top 20?!!! It can’t be true… my goodness…
Am I the only one who’s not impressed by the Bulgarian act? I think it’s so ‘manufactuted’ for the occasion. Would Equinox continue as a band after Lisbon or just disband? Would they be a Riva 2.0?
Yes, you are the only one not impressed by the BG act. And yes they will not continue as a gruop after the contest as it was announced from the beginning.
Hahahaha, luckily no. I showed the songs to 3 specialists and they found much better entries among the 43.
I suspect you are both right, that they will not continue as a group once Eurovision is done. They need a music video to impress me more. They get a good mark from me for their song, but their lyric video (the only video they have at this point) hurts their value; and on my scorecard, they barely miss qualifying.
The video isnt important actually. Both 2016 and 2017 winners didnt have any video.
I didnt liked Equinox video at the beginning, but with time I started to like it because it actually works for the song. It has this transcendence space vibe.
No music video, no problem! I used their national contest performances or their (official) lyric videos. For everyone else (certainly at least half the contenders), their videos give me an idea of what they might put on stage or what to expect when they hit the stage. Russia, Iceland and Serbia did not disappoint in 2016, when they brought most of the action in their videos to the stage. How well or how poorly a video conveys the message in a song is one of the aspects I look for when I watch a video. By the way, from my… Read more »
Sofia 2019 baby!
Glad to see Georgia is creeping up and up. Do people finally start to feel the song??? I sincerely hope so. It’s the best for me!!!!
And to think Russia was number two with the bookies in January. That’s how odds can change and we will definitely see some major chances in the odds after the rehearsals. I would like for Poland, FYR Macedonia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Italy to do better. And for Norway, Sweden, Cyprus and Spain to get down, nothing against them but their positions are not that realistic for me.
For me Cyprus is a balloon. Nothing new and original here.
Greece is overrated as usual. Nothing new and original here.
Sweden is good and catchy.
I still don’t like Israel song. I tried so many times to listen it but I can’t. I can’t. Sorry.
The past two years the Belgium entries are freaking adorable only with the audio versions not with the live performances. Sad.
P.s. I still listen Blanche’s song “City lights”. Love it.
Blanche did average with the semi-final performances yes. In the Kiev semi-final, jury put Belgium out of the top 10. But they really did something going in to the final; Belgium got ninth with the juries in the final and the live televised performance was such an improvement from the one in the Semi.
She deserves to qualify
I watched ESC last year, so I know what happened. 😀
I like only the audio versions.
After Amsterdam I think The Neterlands will be top 10.
That song of Waylon’s could quite probably win the whole thing. After my first evaluation, he is my number 4.
I tried to say to myself – I am tired of Israels song, I am going to resist it with this live performance – and than I heard it at some stream from Amsterdam – it is just not possible to not love it and get caught by it. She is just doing it to me. I really think that she will win, because it is just the kind of song and performance that could do it and will I guess and I am pretty sure about…
I don’t love it.
I actually don’t even like it
To be a winner song you need a lot of people that love your song – and she has got them, that’s a fact.
I don’t like it either. It annoys me, tbh.
Bulgaria and Czechia in the top3. Right……
That’s because they want to lead us beyound flesh and bones – and there it is cold – out there in the universe – all alone.
I need flesh and bones to keep me warm – that’s the reason why other messages get me much more.
But I like the song – it has musical quality and is interesting – for me just not good enough that I want it for a winning song.
I overrated Belgium because of this artistic video and before the live performances. After Israel and Amsterdam I would be very much disappointed Belgium qualifying and Albania not – for example. The Bond song isn’t that grand after all – the video is very good – I must confess, but the song in itself is not convincing me any more. City lights in comparision is still to me a very good song I am listening to still with pleasure. Eurovision isn’t fair, I guess and Sennek coming from Belgium is getting a lot of bonus points. To be understood correctly… Read more »
I feel the same as you.
But i am still optimistic about it. I will giva Laura a chance. I have seen some great performances from her before (with different songs). Also, the early performances of Blanche last year were very very bad and disappointing, and then her final performance was quite good.
I give you that – but the song from Blanche was better! in my point of view. If the song is good – the performance just needs to support it. If the song is ok but not very special and good than you need a performance that slays it.
Belgium has always been a classical jury bait for me. With all respect to the fans, but there are better songs in SF1 that should qualify over “Matter of Time”.
Nobody would be able to explain to me why this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T_HPjVTfoQ
should not qualify but Belgium should.
And this is comparing artists that both wrote their songs by themselfs – although Sennek had professional help.
It breaks my heart knowing that he might stay in the semis.
Yes, mine too! It will ruin watching Lisbon for me.
Try this video Jo – I am so impressed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&v=AxyT04h2USs
Thanks.
The performance was flawless. I just hope he doesn’t try to impress the juries like Lindita did. That was too much screaming. The way he did tonight was already on point.
Agreed. Write this as a comment on his facebook site maybe it has some influence. But I think he knows what he is doing, I hope so.
Thank you Eugene – since you know your stuff what you are saying comforts me!
“City Lights” was a true amazing song. A “temazo” like Spanish-speaking people would say. “A Matter of Time” also rocks but definitely is down from the bar set by Blanche’s song last year.
I actually like it far more. I think City Lights got boring by the end. This one is very similar, but more interesting imo
The ESC betting community can’t understand why Bulgaria is in second place. The biggest theory is that it’s a repeat of Russia’s odds in 2016 where a supporter of the country is making lots of small bets to keep the odds artificially high.
Why you only accuse Bulgaria of this? If that’s the case I’m sure all the countries that are serious about esc are doing the same thing.
I don’t get the hype around Bulgaria. Yes it has an amazing chorus that gets stuck in your head but that’s it. The song makes me feel wanting more. Disappointing considering their 2 previous entries
The same thing with the greek song. Boring, nothing special, nothing new and cold.
By a hitter then lol
I really don’t see Bulgaria doing that well this year. The song is far less impressive than the previous entries. It’s like they tried to much whit this one. It will get top 10 for sure but a winning candidate?
I also expect Estonia to drop out of top 5 in betting odds. As it should. It is not even that good.
Sweden is just not interesting enough and the performance was kind of boring – it’s a seduction by the hipes – but he coudn’t seduct me that way.
couldn’t seduce me (sorry)
the typing mistakes: i meant hips as you already guessed.
I actually think both Australia and Sweden performed well enough Obviously Sweden was simple and perhaps boring because it wasn’t the actual performance. The MF staging is what it will look like. That might influence things. None of the acts had the staging they will have in May. So that must be considered too
As for Australia it was expected she would do well because she is a great singer
Point is I think both did well and din’t disappoint!
Amazing song, out of this world vocals and the one of a kind supreme staging Bulgaria is bringing, i can put my money and heart on this winning! ??
last year Montenegro was in the last positions in betting odds…………
Bulgarian song, against the backdrop of the one from Israel, is a real perfection!
aaron is a troll, dont feed him
Israel is my best option to win.
Israel wont even get to the final. Norway will take the 4. victory
lol norway?? i dont think so. israel #1
“Israel wont even get to the final”
Are you high?
He’s confused, he meant the other way around.
Jamala and Salvador were rubbish
your mum’s rubbish
Israel 10/10
Bulgaria 5/10
Czech Republic 7/10
Estonia 6/10
Australia 5/10
Sweden 5/10
Norway 5.5/10
France 7/10
Belgium 7/10
Greece 6.5/10
Spain 6/10
Netherlands 5/10
Italy 9.5/10
Finland 8.5/10
Toy is also the fattest entry
And you’re a disgusting person.
Get a life.
Well, Netta should eat less!
1 Albania
2 Belarus
3 Finland
4 Aijzerbajdan
5 Cypres
6 Denmark
7 Sweden
40 Belgium
41 France
42 Estonia
43 Israel
Mikolas has no business in the top 3. Hopefully his odds will drift further away.
After Amsterdam I agree too.
Bulgaria has become my absolute favourite after the London pre-party. I still like Estonia too, but I can understand it is falling with the bookies. I was not really impressed by Netta’s performance in Israel; I still like the song when watching the video clip, but I believe it will again disappoint me in the final. The Australian song is catchy and nice to listen to, but it is sooo unoriginal, it’s like I have heard it a million times before… My personal top 10 currently: 1. Bulgaria 2. Austria 3. Estonia 4. Israel 5. Netherlands 6. Belgium 7. Australia… Read more »
If you had to go all in on a song outside of the current betting top ten, what would you currently lean towards?
Estonia have no chance whith the escviewers.
I aggre, those who look at opera i general don’t look at esc. And those who look at esc and like some operasongs probably prefer when men are singing.
How has the result for songs that female operasingers has performed in ESC earlier? That would be interesting if someone have some info.
Those whnlook at opera watch Esc, as it is very much about human voice, but would not vote for Estonia this year.
It was just curiosity, of course! Am done with Eurovision betting for this year.
Dear Eugene, you are an expert from all I read, can you explain to me why this is so bad in the odds? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T_HPjVTfoQ
I would not be happy with Israel or Bulgaria’s songs winning this years contest.
Who’s your winner?
I have a tone of songs ahead of both Israel and Bulgaria but my top 3 are France, Belgium and Czech Republic.
Who’s your winner for this year?
Israel is the best option to win.
Israel is really awful this year
Equinox weren’t at Israel Calling, were they? A lot of these changes in the odds are in response to the live performances for Israel Calling, but that’s not the case for Bulgaria.
Their odds suddenly shot up after they started rehearsing their staging with Sasha Jean-Baptiste. I wonder if somewhere out there, someone is leaking that they do actually have an exceptional stage show, and that explains the reaction.
The only “staging” that was there was them standing in a formation lol
I see a Poli Genova backing vocal ending 101 performance. cliche, been done, not unique.
Here you are a hint about Equinox’s staging:
“All movements (of the singers) would be related to specific camera positions and will produce television effects. The dynamics will come from there. It is very conceptual, modern and, most importantly, stylish.”
I’m sure EBU would love either Bulgaria or Israel winning.
EBU would support Bulgaria. Israel would have at least 1 country withdrawing. Can they even afford it sis
Who would withdraw?
Withdrawing means a severe diplomatic problem between two countries (Georgia-Russia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Ukraine-Russia). In all those three cases, the countries were fighting a war against each other, direct or indirectly.
I really don’t think Ireland, Russia, Sweden, or any other competing country would withdraw in case of a Israeli victory.
I promice, if the Swedish goverment whould do or say anytihing like that they would be out of jobbs. And that has nothing to do whith the fact that we like ESC a lot. The gouverment doesn’t interfeer whith that kind of things.
Love, love, peace, peace from Sweden
Bulgaria its soooooo boooooring
Yes, boring to the bones!
@Aaron, Israel have more resources and much better economy from half of Europe, and even more
Israel hosting will cause a lot of problems, geo-politically
That’s what I am getting at!
Security issues maybe, but not geopolitical. Protests might happen.
Israel can host…. just see Israel calling
LMAO, They had so many technical issues. LMAO
Regarding Security issues, Israel is the master of securities, threats over the ESC was always exist. At least if Israel on charge, we can all sleep well.
@Mark – “technical issues”? Israel Calling was actually flawless, and all the reporter that was there were amazed from how orginzied and well produced it was…
Obesity is the second leading cause of cancer, I don’t envy Netta and her fatness sis!
Why do you talk abot the war in Syria and what has Bulgaria to do with it?!
Israel refused to take refugees, I can link an article, from Syria. Israel is considered an enemy state by many countries and having an Israeli stamp can leave you unable to enter some countries, I’m not sure the same can be said for Bulgarians or even British people boo
I don’t want Bulgaria to win either lol. Estonia for the win! Israel hasn’t invented really anything except for 6 medicines lol. UK has invented 40+ medicines. I would like if you spoke English as well x
hey sis, you’re the idiot that can’t speak proper English x
Sweden!!
Í believe the same as you that the winner maby is not even in the top 5 for the moment, I don’t want to name countries, for different reasons, but I see it like that hehehe
I think sweden will be top 5 last week and Estonia after top 5
Go San Marino, Go ! 😀
LOL, San Marino is a definite NQ in this strong year of eurovision
Go San Marino!
It’s very simple:
No Sara. No Win.
I can totally see a scenario occurring where Bulgaria wins, so I won’t Bec at all surprised if that happens. However, as I said in the article yesterday, the odds won’t really become clear until rehearsals. The staging and the vocals will make or break some of the countries in the Top 10.
Disappointed at Ireland in the betting, definitely think we should be higher than we are currently, especially when I see some of the absolute hot messes that are above it.
I totally WANT Ireland in the Final! And I think there is a possibility for that. Am I the only one who doesn’t see Czech R. in the final – like Macedonia last year.
Wasn’t so hyped about Australia at first, but the song has grown on me a lot, probably the most out of all songs this year, and Jessica totally deserves her spot in those odds. Interesting to see Bulgaria climb back up the odds after an initial fall. I think we will be heading to Sofia next year
I think Jess deserves a really good result.
I hope we head to Prague.
Huh?
My Top 10 prediction (and not personal ranking) :
1:/ Bulgaria
2:/ Israel
3:/ Estonia
4:/ Sweden
5:/ Czech Republic
6:/ Australia
7:/ Cyprus
8:/ France
9:/ Greece
10:/ Macedonia
What is your opinion about my Top 10 ?
Czech Republic will be lower
Sweden around the 4th-6th
France, Macedonia and Cyprus out of the top 10
Winner: Bulgaria/Israel/Estonia – depends on staging
Czech Republic will not please the juries.
Sweden will deffo be top 10 maybe even 5.
Macedonia won’t qualify.
France will be in the top 10
Cyprus SHOULD be top 15
Israel will not in.
Estonia will win as a shock
Czech Republic will come first in Juries
I’m thinking:
1. Italy
2. Estonia
3. Bulgaria
4. Belgium
5. Australia
6. Israel
7. Sweden
8. Czech Republic
9. France
10. Greece
1. Bulgaria
2. Israel
3. Czech Republic
4. Estonia
5. Italy
6. Australia
7. Sweden
8. Austria
9. Norway
10. France
Albania could be a dark horse (and The Netherlands).
I wonder if I’ll ever get used to fractional odds.
More and more by the day I realize the possibility of SOFIA 2019!
No, the song isn’t strong enough
Question: if israel wins which venue wpuld be the most logical option for them to host it?
I think Jerusalem Arena or Menora Mivtachim Arena in Tel Aviv.
tbh, I wouldn’t mind a outdoors ESC 😀
Jerusalem most likely.
If Australia wins then the contest could be hosted anywhere in Europe. Probably the most interesting Host City Bidding Process.
They shouldn’ wory too much..
Eurovision in Concert tonight, is there a link to a broadcast? would be much appreciated!
Thanks 🙂
Honestly, I could see Bulgaria as a potential shock non-qualifier
Cyprus will not qualify. 😉
I hope neither Israel or Bulgaria qualify.
We all love the contest so much that we even look at the betting odds , that proved to be completely overrated the last two years. Can’t wait to see them finally get on the stage. That will be the true start of the competition ??
No one is forcing you to read these kind of articles