In just under a week’s time, the first rehearsals of Eurovision 2018 will have got underway. We’re now at the close of the preview party season and we’ve seen nearly every single act perform live. The bookmakers have their best info to hand, so who’s looking good in the odds now?
The top three remain the same as our last update, with Israel’s Netta remaining the market favourite with “Toy”. Best odds on a fourth Israeli victory are now 19/10 at Marathon Bet.
Bulgaria’s Equinox are still second, with Czech Republic’s Mikolas Josef in third. Equinox have fallen back slightly from Netta after their surge last week. Their best odds are 7/1 at a number of sites, whilst Mikolas is 8/1 at Coral and Unibet.
There are a number of sites though that have the two acts at the same odds. It’s looking like a close fight for that second spot!
The big mover in the top five is Australia’s Jessica Mauboy. As she continues to get good reviews from her preview party performances of “We Got Love”, her odds continue to shorten. On the 14th, Bet365 had Jess at 10/1: now, she’s at 8/1.
You can still get 10/1 on an Australian victory at Unibet and 888 — so get hopping over to them if you think Jess has got what it takes for victory.
Estonia’s Elina Nechayeva moves down to 5th as her odds continue to drift, with uncertainty still around her staging. Sweden’s Benjamin Ingrosso, meanwhile, has dropped from 6th to 8th, albeit only due to Bet Stars placing him as far out as 25/1.
The current movers, however, are France’s Madame Monsieur. Their odds have shortened considerably with some bookies: on the 14th April, bet365 had them as high as 22/1. Now, the same company has them at 12/1.
Best odds on a French win are still 25/1 (again with Bet Stars), but they could very well soon be challenging Norway and Estonia ahead. The recent move is likely related to the recent story that Mercy — the child who inspired their song — has been located safe and well.
The top 10 remains rounded out by Belgium’s Sennek and Greece’s Yianna Terzi, with Spain’s Alfred and Amaia right behind.
Eurovision 2018 Odds (as of 1620 CET, 22nd April)
With rehearsals just days away, the market could change drastically — and quickly. Keep checking back for more odds posts throughout the next few weeks as the contest gets underway!
Let me add a simple comment regarding Spain’s Eurovisión 2018 odds: No way! Is in the eleventh position? It seems to me that “something rotten in the State of Denmark”
I can’t understand why Australia is so overrated …Of course it deserves to be in the final,but guys let’s be honest….it doesn’t stand out!We have seen that thousands times before…(My opinion may change after stage perfomance)
Netta is the best!! 12 points from Italy!!
Will Israel go same way as Italy went last year that’s the question.
In my opinion the comparison between Israel and Italy is absolutely pointless. NOBODY except the Eurofans knew what the heck Franchesco is singing about and what’s up with that gorilla. The song was in freaking Italian, most of the ordinary viewers didn’t run to google translate during the show to check the translation. Netta is singing in English with a pretty simple message. And actually at least people that know English and a bit of American culture will understand that the chicken noises are mimicking a coward. THAT’S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.
Freaking Israel that ruined this year…
Whatever, this songcontest is one of the blandest since long. Only one song really stand out for me which might hopefully be a dark horse: Georgia!!!
I like Italy as well, Denmark allright, Greece… Czech Republic, Belgium
But Israel although not my stile has a very strong song.
Jamala has been on top 5 long before the rehearsal. Dude, get your facts checked.
May be also poland
I don’t want France to win.
I’m happy that Mercy is moving up the odds! Hopefully Italy will close in too. I always view both songs as a pair.
France is my #2 now, with Italy my #3. Estonia is my #1.
One more evaluation to go for the entire roster.
There’s only a victory chance for France, Bulgaria and Greece. The rest…meh.
As I said France will win. I can already imagine their victory speech and performance.
I agree. Might cause controversy but albeit previous winners (Jamala,Salvador,Conchita) already did that so it’s nothing new.
As its been a year with many potential favorites, doesn’t seem to be a regarded consensus, I’m expecting a surprise winner out of the top 20. Under than the 20 position I don’t see any realistic possibility for any of them, just considering how tough is to overcome 20 potential winner songs. I give a minor chance (at least) to all of these top 20 songs and may the best performance win.
Final results of the INFE Poll 2018 – All the results are here: Let’s have a look at the final scoreboard of the INFE Poll 2018! 1. Israel: 199 points 2. Bulgaria: 119 points 3. France: 118 points 4. Greece: 93 points 5. Estonia: 90 points 6. Finland: 87 points 7. Cyprus: 87 points 8. Denmark: 74 points 9. Czech Republic: 64 points 10. Belgium: 57 points Australia: 41 points Belarus: 36 points Germany: 33 points Austria: 29 points Azerbaijan: 26 points Italy: 24 points Ukraine: 24 points Hungary: 15 points FYR Macedonia: 13 points Poland: 13 points Spain: 13… Read more »
MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOUR
I’m starting to feel like the win might go to France
It’s not my FAVORITE to win (most of my favorites kinda don’t have much of a chance) but I wouldn’t mind it winning
If I was the type to actually gamble and place bets, that’s probably where mine would go
They will so not win, leave the bubble and start critical thinkiing! Read some newspapers lately?!
Lord have Mercy, if France wins next year the UK will send a song about Millenials and all of the sudden a week before Eurovision Theresa May will announce that there will no longer be a Brexit? What a joke, but it is very smart PR that’s going an. It won’t be enough to win this contest. Netta in the meantime is keeping her calm, she hasn’t done much besides her two performances and is still steady at number 1. I think she will bring a great stage show to Lisbon and she doesn’t need a refugee child or Jean… Read more »
Apparently Netta only needed all that Hollywood #metoo hypocrisy as PR…
I don’t think Cyprus is THAT overrated. Fuego is not a bad song, but it is very generic pop. La la love was, indeed, sort of a hit (and, for some reason, I still enjoy watching the performance from time to time), but Ivi sung it awfully. Her voice was terrible, and that brought the whole act down a bit
This was supposed to be a reply to an earlier comment from Jackios
Who cares? It’s not like odds are an indicator. In 2016 they predicted Russia would win by a major landslide. And Jamala was down in 8th place. And what happened?
Not to mention that same polls somehow predicted Jessica Andersson would win MF and that Samir & Viktor would get the most tele- votes.
Odds are like OGAE and other voting, just a bit of fun. Nothing to take seriously..
Given that Jess Andersson came 11th out of 12, that’s a pretty good reality check.
Russia came third that year. Its not exactly a bad indicator of how well you’ll do in the finals. Bad example.
No, but nor did they win by a major landslide either. And Jamala did far better than 8th.
And we all still remember Italy last year who didn’t even made it to top 5.Not to forget France 2011 who was the hot bookie favourite but ended up 12th.
So no, I won’t take it seriously. I take it with a huge grain of salt.!
We’ll all know a lot more by this time next week….Bulgaria rehearse at 5.20pm Sunday next. If it’s a damp squib and a disappointment in terms of staging and spectacle then expect it go out to 10s/12s….but if there’s a really strong reaction I can see this really pushing Israel. I am not sure any of the other songs is so mired in uncertainty and expectation about the staging as this one.
I hope France will do well but in the end people watching videos on Youtube, reacting online and voting at the OGAE are just eurofans…it is gonna be hard to predict how people in general will vote in May and these votes arent necessaryly a mark of success…like Moldova last year…eurofans weren’t really considering it but then Europe ranked it third.
Czechia is the real flop from that top 10. Israel could go down some positions. Bulgaria too.
Norway, Estonia, France and Greece underrated.
Nope the greek song is too dramatic, nothing original and unpleasant. It will qualify because it’s Greece. :/
I think the real underrated countries by betting agencies seem to be Germany, Switzerland and FyR Macedonia. If you look at all those polls done by other websites using former ESC contestants, they are rated very highly, particularly Switzerland- which is a sign that it will be rated very highly by the juries.
Here is my bold prediction: I think Switzerland will qualify in Semi 1, and Estonia will not.
Very bold indeed, hope you are right though!
I think France will be in the top 10, can be in the top 5, and could be the winner…
Maybe PARIS 2019 ? ^^
Hopefully it will be Lille or Lyon or Marseille or Bordeaux, Paris hotels are way too expensive…
Oh, Lille does not have an international airport, scracth that.
France is ALWAYS rated high by tge OGAEs abd betting odds (moresl by the OGAEs) and they never deliver. I doubt they will this year. It’s just not that erertaining live for the masses.
How Cyprus is overrated ? It’s 20th in the
Odds
It’s for sure a fanfavorite though like Sara
The semis are SO uneven…
only 6 of semi 2 songs in Top 20 (and some comically overated ones such as Norway xD and in a less extent Australia (good but not top 5 material imo)… where there are 10 from semi 1…
What a waste :/
*lesser
France did it, knockout, checkmate bitc_es! See you in Paris.
#All the money in Israel.
#We Love Netta.
#Tel Aviv 2019.
#Respect.
France could win for political reasons if it’s a lacklustre final night or there’s no act standing out over the rest.
The current political mood will flop France, see recent elections, Brexit, etc. They can bring the child on stage, as a bold move!
Pretty sure they can’t as Eurovision rules should forbid anyone under the age of 16 to go on stage.
Sneak her in the booth than, I’d suggest.
France will win because is not about music anymore.
I still hope Benjamin will be top 5… but it looks dark. : (
he will. Odds aren¨t exactly reliable. last year Robin B was 8th too and he did better than that. And in 2016 Russia was predicted to win by a major landslide and Jamala was 8th. The night of the final. People will be mind-blown when they see the staging
I think France is the “winner” of the pre-parties season, Madame Monsieur are now taken very seriously
I am of the belief that this is part of the reason why France has moved up the odds at a fast pace lately – their consistency on the pre-party circuit has helped greatly (despite the fact that SuRie stepped in for Émilie in Amsterdam) and they’ve been getting some of the biggest crowd receptions of any act. If they can carry that momentum into rehearsals next week and really bring it on the big stage, they’re a definite contender for victory or a top 5
I think France will struggle entering the top 10
I’m glad that Jessica Mauboy has got some support, that’s good to see.
The undervalued ones at the moment would seem to be Hungary and Albania. Not sure why.
Hungary and Albania are undervalued because they are Metal and Rock songs, which aren’t the genres that are mostly associated with Eurovision. (Even though these are the ones in my top 2 😛 )
Some of these “favourites” will flop during the rehearsals, just like it’s happened every year. Then, there’s an open door for countries like Albania and Hungary to shine. Even Georgia might surprise in the end.
And here is an update on my algorithm. This is lightly different than usual one, bets 50%, you tube 30%, streams 10%. The other 10 percent comes from wiwijury, Eurojury, OGAE and INFE polls. 1 Israel 93.72 2 France 91.51 (+1) 3 Bulgaria 91.40 (-1) 4 Australia 90.47 5 Belgium 84.77 6 Sweden 81.86 7 Austria 78.26 8 Czech Rep 75.93 9 Estonia 75.58 10 Belarus 71.63 11 Norway 70.35 12 Spain 69.19 13 Finland 68.72 14 Ukraine 64.88 15 Cyprus 62.91 16 Germany 57.79 (+4) 17 Italy 57.56 (-1) 18 The Netherlands 57.56 (-1) 19 Greece 56.40 (-1) 20… Read more »
Can you be less rude than that? Please?
That’s very interesting actually.
This is so silly.
Thanks. But also, it is very likely that Israel, Bulgaria, Belgium, Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Belarus, Finland and Cyprus will qualify from Semi 1. The 10th place, however, seems to be up for grabs, with Greece, Azerbaijan, FyR Macedonia, Switzerland, Lithuania and Ireland all vying for that last spot.
Semi 2 has a similar pattern: Australia, Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Denmark and Latvia will easily qualify in my opinion. Then, it is a bloodbath between Poland, Moldova, Russia, Hungary and Malta
About Greece, anything is sure. It’s depends about staging, live vocal and bad performances from bookers favorites. I think the first semi-final’s dark horse is Lithuania.
Would this algorithm have predicted the winners of the past 3-5 years?
Honest answer: Last week- yes. Before that- no. I have been doing it since 2016, It predicted Russia in 2016 , with Ukraine second and Australia third. It predicted Italy until the last week in 2017 , Portugal took over few days before the final. But again, the one that came nowhere was Moldova, it was 15th in my algorithm. So, I am not claiming that it is 100% accurate, but it certainly gives clues.
Belarus not qualifying is just a sick joke! How biased can they be?! And also Greece?! C’mon! Just no way! They have huge support!
I saw some rehearsals from Bulgaria and Cyprus cause Sachajeanbaptiste is friend of mine ..I am sure Cyprus will go up that girl is a great performer and dance so fierce and can sing ..lol at the doubters I am not about results cause Cyprus is a small country and due to lack of neighbours that are always underrared and have never been in top15 the last 15 years .. But I am sure this girl is going to impress a lot Bulgaria also had a great staging but I expected more maybe because of the hype Australia just ok… Read more »
Please, Portugal has only 1 neighbourh and have won so it doesn’t matter anymore
Don’t get me wrong i think Portugal won because it’s a nice song but also the health problems of Salvador was really well promoted and helped it to stand out it’s not the same
Even my mum who is not a fan of eurovision when she watched the final said…”Is this the Portugal guy who has a problem with his heart ? So sweet” etc..you know what i mean
Cyprus is always underrated
See “Ia la love” 2012 it was a hit in many countries after the performance but it got only the 16th place in the final
If this entry was for a big country it would definately be a top10 at least
I have to say that I saw YouTube video of Americans reacting to the top five 2017 in the final, and scored the performances, and Salvador was the highest score. They knew nothing about him, so I guess he disserves more credit.
More like the PR team from Cyprus. La La Love sucked live!
Norway is too high. Also, Latvia is still holding that ~28th since the beginning. I think she won’t even qualify, or barely will make it.
She’s in Semifinal 2 and judging by the bookies she will qualify as most of the songs in the Top 15 are predominantly from semifinal 1
All this talk of odds is just an advertisement for the betting agencies.
I hope Mikolas won’t fall much down next week. I am from the Czech Republic and I think he is a bit overrated, 3rd place would be a great dream but it is impossible. TOP 10 will be amazing, but in odds I wish him TOP 5, but not TOP 3.
He can sing, that’s the important sing. Positive is that the song isn’t much challenging vocally, so he just needs strong nerves.
At this point it is all about the stagings, starting on may 4th. Madrid party won’t do any difference either.
Come on, vote for underrated Finland in the semifinal!
did you… really just say that FINLAND is underrated? you need a reality check tbh
How can it be overrated if it the odds say that she will not qualify? Saara Aalto is the most famous and proffesional singer in the whole ESC. But she is underrated. CZECH and CYPRUS is so OVERRATED!.
Thank you, im not angry.
Judging by international fame. Alekseev and Jessica Mauboy are probably the most famous acts of this year. Being known in the UK doesn’t make her a superstar.
Alekseev must improves is live vocals. Jessica may, if the last years trend occurs, have a lot of jury vote, but won’t be a hard televote favorite. But as she will sing during the second semi-final (considered as the weakest one) and had delivered good performances during the pre-parties, it won’t be very difficult for her to go throught the Grand Final.