Rehearsals are well underway in Lisbon and they’ve already had a big impact on the Eurovision 2018 odds. The main change is a new challenger to market leader Israel

Norway‘s Alexander Rybak has soared into second place, with bookmakers slashing his odds to win left, right and centre. A few days ago Bet365 had his odds as high as 14/1, but Norway can now be found as low as 11/2 at William Hill.

Rybak’s charismatic performance at his first rehearsal appears to have convinced his doubters. Norway are also in the blue across all major bootmakers, meaning their odds are shortening.

Cyprus has also benefitted from a warmly received first rehearsal. Eleni Foureira set the stage on fire and has lit up Cyprus’ Eurovision 2018 odds too. She’s now ninth favourite to win the entire competition, with odds as low as 16/1 at William Hill.

Acts moving in the opposite direction include leader Israel, Czech Republic and Bulgaria. All three are in the red across major bookmakers, meaning their odds to win are drifting.

The biggest casualty of Wednesday’s rehearsals appears to be Australia. Jessica Mauboy was riding high in the odds in our last update, but has now slipped to seventh. Skybet has widened her odds from 7/1 to 12/1. Better camerawork may reverse the downward trend.

A new arrival in the top ten is Italy. Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro’s odds have shortened significantly. BetFred has cut their odds in half, from 50/1 to 25/1 in just three days. Although the duo have yet to rehearse, they now have dynamism on their side.

Outside of the top ten, The Netherlands is a major negative mover. Waylon is now beyond the Top 20, with odds as long as 100/1 at Betstars. Commentary suggests a more stripped back stage show may improve his chances.

EUROVISION 2018 ODDS ACCURATE 00:20CET

What do you make of the latest odds? Do you think Norway can win? Let us know in the comments below!

YOU CAN SEE MORE EUROVISION ODDS UPDATES HERE

Photo: Thomas Hanses, Andres Putting

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Patrick
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Patrick

Please can someone explain to me how it is fair or allowed for Alexander Rybak to mime playing to violin during his entry? Like with Fairytale he makes it a big crowd pleasing moment during his entry but it is completely faked. How is that fair?

Lily
Guest
Lily

For me is italy the winner of this Eurovision
FORZA ITALIAAAAA

ezzzza
Guest
ezzzza

please vote for Cyprus, its time for another small country/ island to win the showw

Erel
Guest
Erel

Having Cypriot roots, I would be so happy if Cyprus does well and maybe wins, guys please vote for Cyprus for semi final and final, hope we have our best result.
Love from N.Cyprus our brothers

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

“Doing a Johnny Logan” worked in the 90s before the invention of the internet. In the YouTube, data-driven, post-millennial era we’re currently in, audiences want the immediate gratification that comes from crowning new fresh winners. No way Rybak is taking this. Still a competition between these five for the win: Israel, France, Estonia, Bulgaria, and Spain.

Ally
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Ally

RYBAK FOR THE WIN!

Ethan1994
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Ethan1994

I’ll feel so smug if he does. 🙂

Yaa
Guest
Yaa

Romania is also in red after yesterday’s rehearsal, from #36 to # 38, just sad.

Donald duck
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Donald duck

I see more near and near a victory from a big 5,

Kirby
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Kirby

France, maybe?

Marcel
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Marcel

Angus, you forget France. They are close to get Israel. 🙂
Anyway, many people were betting on Norway, so thats the reason that we see a 2nd place right now. Dont worry. Next days with 2nd rehearsal and the 1st with big 5, all will go crazy again. I think it’s the most open ESC ever. And not because the songs are all worse. Many are really great. Love it.
Cant remember a year where odds gone crazy the whole ESC season 😀

Åri
Guest
Åri

2011

Edgar
Guest
Edgar

I think we should consider Norway as a strong contendar. It can actually win, and to everyon’s surprise – with a huge margin, just because it really stands out from the rest by being super catchy, fun, and performed with charisma.

Edgar
Guest
Edgar

mistake in the comment – Contnedant*

Åri
Guest
Åri

Contender?

Purple Mask
Guest
Purple Mask

My friend with a time machine told me Norway was going to win. Looks like I should have taken her more seriously.

Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

Who’s your friend, Michael J. Fox?

ESC
Guest
ESC

Malta is always more underrated…

Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

Who’s wasting their money on Norway? That cringefest will be 13-18 in the final lmao.

Life is a drag
Guest
Life is a drag

If you’re so good at predicting why don’t you give me the numbers for the national lottery next week?

Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

It’s called common sense.

Susan
Guest
Susan

Ohh these odds make me laugh. Ofc Norway is going to end up high in the semi-final 2, the many others are just so week, like we saw yesterday, but in Grand Final.. no way that Norway end up top 10, juries surely can’t be that dumb, can they??

Ari
Guest
Ari

#Fuego
Queen Foureira! Cyprus top10

Roelof Meesters
Guest
Roelof Meesters

Hopefully our delegation will see the negatiuve response to the Dutch rehearsal and get rid of the dance. The dancers can stay playing instruments, but get rid of the dance, PLEASE!

dino
Guest
dino

Why is everybody excited about Sweden? Will he do anything different from what he did in Mello? It will be the same staging everybody knows already, he can’t grow because he has nothing new to offer.

Denis
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Denis

And yet he will grow.!At least on the nighr when casual first time viewers see the staging for first time

iria
Guest
iria

I can’t believe Norway is so high. The song is very mediocre, no matter how much charisma Alexnder has. I still have hopes in France!

NickC
Guest
NickC

Semi 1-is a southern battle between Israel, Bulgaria, Cyprus. Semi 2 is a northern battle between Sweden and Norway.

2much
Guest
2much

Is this what the algorithm is saying? Living with figures and calculations can be tricky. When will people stop underestimating Moldova? And don’t answer me if you will have only numbers, I don’t care about your numbers.

NickC
Guest
NickC

I dont know what you wnat me to say. I like Moldova very much. More than last year, actually. But I am a scientist, I do not make claims unless I can support them with numbers.

NickC
Guest
NickC

Err. I never claimed I know who will win. I am just presenting an overall picture of the trends. I am not a fortuneteller. I just like playing with numbers, but it is possible that I flop like Ireland 2015. 🙂

Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

Denmark will do better than Norway.

Music is Art
Guest
Music is Art

Whatever! I can’t wait to see Spain and France ‘s rehearsals and see it all shacking again. What a year!

Nope
Guest
Nope

Spain? wtf their song is bad, they won’t be near the top 10

Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

You’re optimistic… to me it’s a blatant bottom 5 entry. Lithuania is a classy version of Spain’s mess.

Sander
Guest
Sander

You, my friend, just read my mind.

Music is Art
Guest
Music is Art

Both ballads are similar in quality, very well composed and produced

Music is Art
Guest
Music is Art

Let’s see! The song has quality even if you dont like it and moves easily to sensitive people ina year with few ballads. Anyway, in general with the Big 5, the odds will shake again!

Denis
Guest
Denis

Well it´s not that surprising,is it? He had a great rehearsal. It is more surprising that Israel still is first after that disappointing rehearsal
Wait for Sweden to shoot up after today..

Malin
Guest
Malin

Spännande dag. : )

Netta is a feminist, bad bad. Im not a toy.
Guest
Netta is a feminist, bad bad. Im not a toy.

Spännande dag = an exciting day

Netta is a feminist, bad bad. Im not a toy.
Guest
Netta is a feminist, bad bad. Im not a toy.

Why is Finland 12th in the semifinal 1 odds but also 12th in the winner odds? Really really bad odds. Finland must qualify from that overrated semifinal.

Kyna
Guest
Kyna

It was May 1, not April 1, quit joking around Norway it’s too late for making any April Fools jokes.

Guest
Guest
Guest

doesn’ look like anything to me

Fuego 2018
Guest
Fuego 2018

If Rybak can beat France, I team him. France and Italy, with national languages, will suffer without LED. Maybe they will bring their own screen like Germany and Sweden.

Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

If anything, it’s the generic pop songs that will suffer the most without LEDs. France and Italy don’t need much distraction from the song itself.

dan 1987
Guest
dan 1987

Lisa Angell 2.0

Jumbo
Guest
Jumbo

Generic pop songs can have pyros, soap-bubbles, wind machine, snow, lights, robots, confetti, but songs with ”serious messages” need LED to show some pictures with children crying. Big 5 will bring their own LEDs. We will see on Friday.

Alex
Guest
Alex

How?

Ulises
Guest
Ulises

Italy 10th? Really? Very funny joke.
Now wait and see, Queen Laura Rizzoto is coming!! What a treat;-)

Yes
Guest
Polegend Godgarina
Guest
Polegend Godgarina

Yeah, no. We’re not in North Korea where family dishonor is hereditary. She isn’t responsible for what an ancestor did.

Mark
Guest
Mark

Atleast Czechia has climbed back up to 5th

Mark
Guest
Mark

Great, the two songs I hate the most are the most likely to win. I knew this year was going to suck.

Euphoric
Guest
Euphoric

“Fairytale” bacame one of those songs that I’ve listened so many times at many occasions that I can’t listen to it any more… I also had enough of Rybak’s sweetness since I saw the first press conference in Moscow…
Now it all happens again.. although I don’t listen to his song because I’d simply become a diabetic.
#Howmanyfairytalesisenough? ?

Fatima
Guest
Fatima

Place your bets BEFORE the rehearsals if you are confident in your choices.

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

What a great year this is.

Mark
Guest
Mark

Sarcasm, right?

Mattias Sollerman
Guest
Mattias Sollerman

No. 🙂
I like the songs, staging, organization, and here specifically that the competition seems to be unpredictable. I’d be happy with any of the top 12 atm winning.

Prét
Guest
Prét

Guyz…the winner shows up this friday. Have some patience.

Mercy me later.

Euphoric
Guest
Euphoric

If France is going to win, it’ll happen the same way it happened for Conchita and Jamala -rehersals didn’t get my attention, but the live performances took me to a different stadium of conciousness… So if “Mercy” has it, it has to appear live in the final…

If not, than we’re off to Tel Aviv

blondboybc
Guest
blondboybc

The only thing I see in these odds is there’s no clear winner!

Javier
Guest
Javier

I always thought this was a quite strong year. We’re not having a super favorite on stage, but there are around 20 songs that would clinch the top 10 in many past years.

Passarinho
Guest
Passarinho

One think we can bet on, there will be a lot of angry people after the final

DR
Guest
DR

Moldova has also gone from 27th to 17th after today’s rehearsal.

Davve
Guest
Davve

Nothing strange. Best performances. Norway and Cyprus are top favourites now.

Ezz
Guest
Ezz

yessssss hope people get behind cyprusssss, fuego is a good ticket

Apk
Guest
Apk

Same. After watching all the snippets from almost every semifinalist, I haven’t seen a CLEAR winner. Winner always shows up in style.

I’m starting to think this could go to a Big 5 country? After 8 years. Watch out France, Germany, Portugal.

Hada
Guest
Hada

And Spain and Italy. This year the Automatic Qualifiers are contenders.

Luke A
Guest
Luke A

Don’t forget UK too I really think if SuRie gets crowd behind her and the staging is just as good as Lucie last year then UK is dark horse of the year

Phary
Guest
Phary

I have NO IDEA who’s gonna win this.

Euphoric
Guest
Euphoric

After all we all know 😉

The same was in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017 and so on… and in the end the obvious favourite won…
Honestly, I’ve been really surprised maybe three times in last decade (and I mean that betting odds were wrong… -2011, 2014, 2016)…

stephos
Guest
stephos

I think odds will change a lot after the 2nd rehearsals. Countries that carry momentum after their 1st rehearsal could climb even higher!

This year is crazy open, as it seems to be now anyway.

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Italy might become a real dark horse. The competition is totally open.

I-vlad
Guest
I-vlad

Stop spamming everywhere.
Wait and see. You actually act like spanish fans right now x)
Acting like that wont help the song.
Il french and when i read you, i dont want them to win x)

KESC
Guest
KESC

Oo, things don’t look good for Belgium.. I might not be surprised, if she doesn’t qualify, in case she doesn’t improve the staging and change her dress..
And Norway 2nd place is just ridiculous.. c’mon, it’s a catchy, fun song performed by a charismatic singer, but reaching the TOP 10 would be an award for him.

Elmo
Guest
Elmo

Had any other country sent this song they wouldn’t even qualify. The only reason they will do well is because its Rybak. Norway winning is worse case scenario.

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

Today should see Hungary and Sweden shoot up. Hungary should get in the top ten and Sweden into the top three.
Not my preference but it is what I am expecting.

The current top five looks a bit more realistic to me but more moves are on the way.

esc1234
Guest
esc1234

The odds are completely random and strange this year. How on earth Norway moved on second place??

Davve
Guest
Davve

By a good stage performance

esc1234
Guest
esc1234

Which is the same from the national final…. That’s a lame excuse, Many countries had a good rehearsal, doesn’t mean anything….

blondboybc
Guest
blondboybc

It’s called psychology…not sure he can maintain that placing for much longer….

Catriona Colville
Guest
Catriona Colville

The odds aren’t ransom at all. Just because you don’t like Norway’s song, doesn’t mean it isn’t justified as a top contender.