One has been the frontrunner to win the grand final of Eurovision 2018 from the very beginning. The other has dazzled ever since landing in Lisbon, watching her odds narrow day by day. And now, hours before the Semi-Final 1 jury show, the bookies believe that Israel’s Netta and Estonia’s Elina Nechayeva will sail through to the final.

Israel, which has been the favourite to win this semi-final from the very first odds reveal, remains on top with odds as low as 11/8.

Despite a somewhat disappointing first rehearsal, Netta has stayed strong, returning to her second rehearsal with stronger camera cuts, more attitude and a renewed sense of optimism.

At the moment the bookies have her down as the clear winner. Following behind are Estonia with odds as low as 4/1. That puts her level with Cyprus and the Czech Republic, who are also as low as 4/1.

Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Finland, Belgium and Belarus round out the top 10 in terms of who will win this semi-final.

SEMI-FINAL 1 ODDS TO WIN ACCURATE 16:50CET

SEMI-FINAL 1 ODDS TO QUALIFY: ACCURATE 16:50CET

For many countries, however, the main priority is making it to the Grand Final. That makes the odds to qualify perhaps more significant than the odds to win this semi.

The bookies believe these 10 acts will qualify for the final: Israel, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Armenia and Belgium.

That means Azerbaijan, Switzerland, Finland, Belarus, Croatia, Ireland, Albania, FYR Macedonia and Iceland are out.

The non-qualifiers currently include fan favorite Finland. The bookies also think that Azerbaijan is out for the first time ever.

 

FOR MORE EUROVISION ODDS NEWS CLICK HERE

 

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NickC
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NickC

Here is the update on algorithm. Israel is down to 6th. In semi 2, Sweden, Norway, Moldova, Ukraine, Australia, Denmark, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland and Latvia are predicted to qualify, and it ‘seems’ more certain than semi 1.

1 Cyprus 94.41
2 France 92.50
3 Sweden 87.06
4 Norway 84.85
5 Bulgaria 83.38
6 Israel 82.94
7 Estonia 80.29
8 Czech Rep 78.82
9 Austria 71.62
10 Moldova 69.41
11 Lithuania 67.06
12 Ukraine 62.06
13 Finland 61.62
14 Germany 60.00
15 Australia 60.00
16 Spain 57.65
17 Ireland 54.93
18 Italy 54.85
19 Portugal 52.50
20 Denmark 43.24
21 Hungary 42.65
22 The Netherlands 40.74
23 Poland 38.53
24 Latvia 36.62
25 Albania 30.88
26 UK 30.29
27 Malta 23.53
28 Russia 22.79
29 Romania 20.81
30 Georgia 17.13
31 Serbia 15.59
32 San Marino 11.99
33 Slovenia 10.00
34 Montenegro 9.41

Azotman
Guest
Azotman

Bonsoir Lisboa,
Voici mes qualifiés pour cette 1ère demi finale :

Grèce
Chypre
Estonie
A.R.Y. Macédoine
Finlande
Lituanie
Arménie
Irlande
Rép. Tchèque
Albanie

Il risque d’y avoir pas mal de surprises ce soir. Je me réjouis. Que le meilleur gagne !
Bisous.

Burger
Guest
Burger

This semi will be a bloodbath – one or two will not qualify that would do if they were on Thursday night . Definite (based on draw order only and not an indication of preference) – Czech Republic, Israel, Estonia, Bulgaria, Cyprus Probably – Lithuania, Austria Likely – Greece (which will get Cyprus votes) Finland (good live performer and the UK is voting in this semi final and she was an X Factor contestant in UK) Maybe (choose one of) – Azerbaijan (might actually need Armenians to vote for it!), Belgium (a bit sick of Bond movie theme songs), Armenia… Read more »

janet kench
Guest
janet kench

i was taken aback about Finland, it would be a shame for her not to go through as the act is certainly one of the best on stage.

Anthony de France
Guest
Anthony de France

cyprus number one in the bookies ? whats’s wrong with the odds this year ? !!!!!

CookyMonzta
Guest
CookyMonzta

The odds are largely people-driven. They are more likely to anticipate where the TELEVOTERS will go; but mark my words; the JURIES will see things just a bit differently.

paul
Guest
paul

semifinas l is a tragedy get rid of them

lasse braun
Guest
lasse braun

i will hope that saara can reach the final in this hardest tough semi ever!
no monsters in the final no fun.

Kit Kat
Guest
Kit Kat

Copy/paste from the Press Center votes on escportugal (doesn’t need translation I guess 🙂 ) :

“1.º Chipre – 103 pontos
2.º Lituânia – 67 pontos
3.º Suíça – 27 pontos
4.º Estónia – 22 pontos
5.º Bulgária – 20 pontos
6.º República Checa – 14 pontos
7.º Finlândia – 12 pontos
8.º Irlanda – 11 pontos
9.º Azerbaijão – 10 pontos
10.º Albânia – 8 pontos

11.º Áustria – 7 pontos
12.º Israel – 4 pontos
13.º Bélgica – 3 pontos
14.º Arménia – 2 pontos
15.º Croácia – 2 pontos
16.º Grécia – 2 pontos
17.º ARJ Macedónia – 1 ponto
18.º Bielorrússia – 0 pontos
19.º Islândia – 0 pontos”

Piotrek
Guest
Piotrek

Switzerland. What a surprise.

Israel falling apart big time.

Yaa
Guest
Yaa

How about Portugal get’s suspended for this?!

Im not your troll, you stupid boy
Guest
Im not your troll, you stupid boy

Is this the jury votes? The top 3 is so bad.

CookyMonzta
Guest
CookyMonzta

The press voted. Obviously they overestimated Switzerland’s chances.

CookyMonzta
Guest
CookyMonzta

They crapped out on Switzerland and Azerbaijan. Did they really think Israel would collapse that bad?

Edgar
Guest
Edgar

Did you see that CYPRUS IS THE NEW FAVORITE TO WIN THE WHOE COMPETITION ?!!

Luke A
Guest
Luke A

I’ll be happy if Belgium, Finland and Estonia make it would be good if Ireland made it too but don’t think they will

Kaz
Guest
Kaz

Can we say it out loud? Switzerland to the grand final? Or is anybody scared Switzerland might actually qualify for once?

Maria
Guest
Maria

Switzerland has a really great song. If this song were Sweden’s, nobody would have doubts about its qualification. So pity.

Ally
Guest
Ally

It won’t qualify, especially in semi like this, song and performance is not so bad, but forgettable.

poe-tay-toe-chips
Guest
poe-tay-toe-chips

Swap Armenia for Albania an I’d agree that this is probably how this will turn out

Trocatroc
Guest
Trocatroc

Have you guys seen the press poll?!?!

esc1234
Guest
esc1234

its INSANE who votes in this???

Ally
Guest
Ally

They should better focus on their press job then to play some kind of voters and ”experts”

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

Definite Qualifiers (5): Estonia, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus

Good Chance of Qualifying (5): Austria, Finland, Croatia, Greece, Belgium

Toss Ups (5): Armenia, Albania, Belarus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan

Definite Non-Qualifyiers (4): Iceland, Ireland, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland

Tibor
Guest
Tibor

This semifinal is a tragedy. I watch Eurovision for quite a while now, and I have never seen a stronger semifinal than this, hell, I’ve seen weaker finals than this semi! So whatever happens tomorrow, it will be a huge unjustice. It’s even more frustrating, if you sit in a country that cannot vote tomorrow (I know what I’m talking about). It’s really strange, there were always casualties for me during the semis over the years, but the threat was never quite that massive. Tomorrow I might lose half of my top 10. There have been years, where I struggled… Read more »

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

Preach!

My2Cents
Guest
My2Cents

On. Point. *sheds a tear*

Kit Kat
Guest
Kit Kat

Tonight I’ll watch it as the Grand Final!! My top 10 are acting, really sad to lose so many good ones.
Thursday won’t really be interesting compared to tonight…

Leo M
Guest
Leo M

Just hearing about the jury show and I believe Croatia, Albania, Cyprus and Ireland were among the best. Also read Bulgaria has a complete disaster, could be a shock non-qualifier.

Pera
Guest
Pera

My prediction for tomorrow I semi final
1.Bulgaria
2.Israel
3.Estonia
4.Cyprus
5.Lithuania
6.Austria
7.Czech Republic
8.Azerbaijan
9.Belarus
10.Finland

11.Belgium
12.Greece
13.Armenia
14.Albania
15.Ireland
16.Croatia
17.F.Y.R Macedonia
18.Iceland
19.Switzerland

paul
Guest
paul

Lithuania one thick could winner

paul
Guest
paul

next year rename neighboursvision

CookyMonzta
Guest
CookyMonzta

I have not watched a single second of the rehearsals; but based on the songs and videos that were released, here is how I picture the first semifinal:

9.61 Estonia
9.52 Bulgaria
9.50 Albania
9.50 Israel
9.46 Austria
9.46 Greece
9.46 Lithuania
9.43 Czech Republic
9.42 Armenia
9.37 Belarus

Pedro
Guest
Pedro

so I have heard songs from jury show and there was realy 2 good surprises- Austia and Lithuania- so they are back in the game again. Shock was – Bulgaria- worst entry they have done here (maybe too nervous). Israel was total mess as predicted- esecially weak was the end of song- so no big point from jury 100%

Estonia was very good. So my prediction :
Sure finalists :
Estonia
Austria
Lithuania
Finland
Albania
Cypros

Borderline
Irasel
Azerbajan
Swicerland
Belarus
Iceland

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

ESCUnited also watched the jury performance from Lisbon and they all agreed that this was Netta’s best performance since rehearsals started. One of them even argued she will win this semi. Wiwibloggs predicts also that she will sail through. So please don’t speak in definitive terms – because you clearly have no idea what juries will do. Thank you.

Olivier2
Guest
Olivier2

Like Wiwibloggs,ESCUnited , nor you know either. Best songs ha. More like best barn animal music. Juries unlike most voters have actually musical experience and I’m certain they won’t let chicken music easily sail through

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

Most juries are past contestants or past composers or past producers in ESC – they know all about this competition. No reason to think they will not share the same love that the ESC community has given this song and Netta making it number 1 in all lists coming into Lisbon. You have a clear distaste and hatred, to a point where you use derogatory language – thats totally your choice, but prepare to be disappointed tomorrow.

@EugeneESCUK
Guest

DAILY BETTING UPDATE – MONDAY 7th MAY . SEE WHO HAS IMPRESSED OR DISAPPOINTED SO FAR SINCE SUNDAY MORNING 29TH APRIL, 8 DAYS AGO? . TOP 5 IN THE BETTING THIS EVENING (The number in brackets is the number of times in the Top 5 in the last 8 days) :- . 1st ISRAEL (8) *2nd ESTONIA (8)* 3rd NORWAY (7) *4th CYPRUS (1)* 5th FRANCE (8) . 6th CZECH REPUBLIC (4) 7th BULGARIA (2) . . https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner . . New Top 5 in the betting today as CYPRUS enters for the first time. ESTONIA finally settles in at 2nd… Read more »

Sabrina
Guest
Sabrina

And now Switzerland also left Azerbaijan behind. For some reason, the bookies went crazy about the siblings on the last 24 hours.

@EugeneESCUK
Guest

We use Oddschecker.
.
SWITZERLAND is a 300/1 shot, it may as well be a1000/1 shot.
.
https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner

Sabrina
Guest
Sabrina

But I was talking about the odds to qualify, not to win the contest.

@EugeneESCUK
Guest

The winner market reflects on who might qualify. ie if you don’t qualify you can’t win. A 300/1 shot in the win market is unlikely to qualify, but we usually always see one or to unexpected shocks and surprises.

Peter
Guest
Peter

1. Cyprys <3 Black, dark horse
2. Czech Republic
3. Estonia
4. Austria , big progress
5.Israel
6. Greece
7. Bulgaria
8. Finland, big disappointment
9. Belgium
10. Lithuania

Alex
Guest
Alex

Cyprus is not a dark horse…hello is like 3rd in the odds!

Peter
Guest
Peter

WOW! Now Cyprus is first!

Nick
Guest
Nick

So this is a very hard semi-final. This is my prediction (NOT OPINION. PREDICTION).
Sure qualifiers: Israel, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Bulgaria
Might qualify (likely): Finland, Greece, Belgium
Borderline (fighting for the 2 last spots): Albania, Lithuania, Austria, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Belarus
Likely to not qualify, but who knows: Armenia, Switzerland
Sorry, bye: FYR. Macedonia (the song is in my top 10 lol), Ireland, Iceland

It will be interesting 🙂 My personal favourites are Lithuania, Albania, Estonia, Croatia and Belarus. I will be sad if Switzerland doesn’t make it though 🙁

Marvic
Guest
Marvic

I want Lithuania, Macedonia, Switzerland, Belgium and Finland in the final

Trocatroc
Guest
Trocatroc

People laughed at me putting money on Estonia but I really think they have a very good chance of winning!

Yaa
Guest
Yaa

Belarus is absolutely qualifying, mark my words! I really hope Abania makes it, I think juries will push it. I think Austria , Armenia and even Estonia wil not qualify- I can see the downvotes pouring but I’m ok, it’s not from the guts, I have my reasons. For starters only try to imagen the juries reaction to the Led dress, so Portugal said no leds, let the music triumph and they bring their own expensive ripped dress, and meanwhile they know that their own delegations had to do without led, just lights and props. Plenty of reasons more, if… Read more »

Azerbaijan2019
Guest
Azerbaijan2019

I literally only want Azerbaijan to qualify 🙁 Everyone else has their favorites going in, like Czech and Israel and Bulgaria, But the only one I want to see in the final might not make it…

Tris
Guest
Tris

Same! To be honest, I just want Azerbaijan to qualify and I don’t care who makes up the remaining 9 slots.

Donald duck
Guest
Donald duck

1Cyprus,2Austria,3Ireland,4Bulgary,5Czech Rep,6Belarus,7Armenia,8Switzerland,9Croatia,10Albania
hope this ten go to the final

Martina
Guest
Martina

Albania will qualify due to Albanian diaspora in Austria, Switzerland, Greece, FYR Macedonia…..and all these countries are in 1 semi .

Christian
Guest
Christian

Last year, I saw an ad from RTSH where they were shamelessly trying to get their diaspora ready to vote lol.

Martina
Guest
Martina

I really didin’t saw this advertisment that are you talking about. So i don’t have an opinion!!! But the Albania’s song is really good and his voice is also amazing ..and i think the jury will vote posivitely for Albania

Pera
Guest
Pera

For final countries must to collect minimum 100 points to go to final. Albania will gets maybe 12 points from Austria, Switzerland, Macedonia from televote that is 36 points, from Greece 10 points ,12 points go to Cyprus. This is 46 points they must collect 54 points from all juries and other countries in televote. Albania deserve to go to final, but we saw in past that juries doesn t support Albania very much (only one time in 2012).

Christian
Guest
Christian

I’m surprised to see Lithuania as possible qualifier. Maybe it’s a dark horse this year. I think it deserves more to qualify for the Final than France!

scdc
Guest
scdc

israeli song is foolish.. its title should be CHICKEN SONG by NETTA

Nicky
Guest
Nicky

YOU ARE A FOOLISH

Jim
Guest
Jim

israel’s song is great and it’s gonna win #dealwithit

omri
Guest
omri

and cyprus singing about how hot she is … thats better???? hypocrits

HOTLINEBLINGFROMLISBOA
Guest

Here is the latest gossip from Lisboa
This morning one of Serbia’s singers was spotted leaving Armenia’s singer Sevak’s room which they spent night together after party. blonde one….

Jim
Guest
Jim

alfred cheated on amaia with foureira #almaiaisoverparty

Carolyn Cameron
Guest
Carolyn Cameron

Saara will qualify…no doubt about it!. Great song, great singer…#monsters #snowfairies #esc #ketsdothis

Y tho?
Guest
Y tho?

Lol, people thinking Albania will struggle to qualify, but they forget Switzerland, Austria, Macedonia, Greece and Belgium vote in this semi. Which is translated in roughly 56 diaspora televotes. Lol.

And instead of complaining and sending “thoughts and prayers” to Eugent, how about ACTUALLY VOTING FOR HIM TOMORROW?

Alex
Guest
Alex

Exactly! #squadgoals

paul
Guest
paul

Maria your right

Maria
Guest
Maria

Come on, Jury is also voting, televotes only 50%. We can see approx. what televoters might like…. but Jury.. nooone knows. Jury always know how to surprise

paul
Guest
paul

Ireland its over for you sorry

paul
Guest
paul

bookies are fools

beccaboo1212
Guest

The following countries better prove the bookies wrong tomorrow: (in other words, qualify!)

* Albania
* Azerbaijan
* Ireland
* Iceland
* Finland
* Switzerland

My2Cents
Guest
My2Cents

*Croatia
*Lithuania

Marcelo
Guest
Marcelo

It’s impossible for all of those to qualify. And considering half of them are almost certain non-qualifiers (not only by bookies, but by press, fans, polls, etc.), you’re gonna be very sad tomorrow.

paul
Guest
paul

Israel song weak song this year why do a chicken sound

Paul
Guest
Paul

Symbolism

Olivier2
Guest
Olivier2

Feminism to an extreme

Tinou
Guest
Tinou

Please vote for Belgium! I would die if Sennek doesn’t qualify tomorrow… :p It’s a SOS from Belgian fans who feel as bad as last year with Blanche who ruined her song in semi.

Jim
Guest
Jim

she cant sing the high notes and the staging is dull, so no

Olivier2
Guest
Olivier2

Sure

paul
Guest
paul

I think there’s going to be a shock

Netta forever
Guest
Netta forever

”Toy” is like ”Yodel It”
Only televote can save it.

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

Also, remember each semi the juries save one song from the cruel televote and vice-versa. I can see Lithuania being saved by the juries and Finland being saved by the televote (maybe Macedonia) and Semi 2 I can see the juries saving Malta and the televote saving Hungary

esc1234
Guest
esc1234

Finland will loose the final simply because they have made it a circus act. Sometimes less is more…

mark dowd
Guest
mark dowd

I can’t believe you guys made FYROM a “lock”……you may live to regret that decision!

Tedi
Guest
Tedi

1. Cyprus 100%
2. Estonia 100%
3. Greece 100%
4. Israel 100%
5. Finland 80%
6. Bulgaria 80%
7. Croatia 65%
8. Austria 65%
9. Czech Republic or Albania 50%
10. Switzerland or Lithuania 50%

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

as long as skinny estonia and finland qualify I agree!

beccaboo1212
Guest

Hopefully Albania and Switzerland make it to Saturday as well. 🙂

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

oh god no thank you

Héctor
Guest
Héctor

With the rehearsals my opinion on who will qualify has changed a little, so here is my prediction:
Sure:
1. Israel
2. Bulgaria
3. Estonia
4. Czech Republic

Very likely:
5. Cyprus
6. Austria

Likely even if they have disappointed:
7. Belgium
8. Greece

Really struggling:
9. Albania
10. Lithuania

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

Austria will qualify <7th.

Albania 9th will never happen.

beccaboo1212
Guest

Albania should be in the Top 5 😮

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

Bottom 5 honey x