One has been the frontrunner to win the grand final of Eurovision 2018 from the very beginning. The other has dazzled ever since landing in Lisbon, watching her odds narrow day by day. And now, hours before the Semi-Final 1 jury show, the bookies believe that Israel’s Netta and Estonia’s Elina Nechayeva will sail through to the final.

Israel, which has been the favourite to win this semi-final from the very first odds reveal, remains on top with odds as low as 11/8.

Despite a somewhat disappointing first rehearsal, Netta has stayed strong, returning to her second rehearsal with stronger camera cuts, more attitude and a renewed sense of optimism.

At the moment the bookies have her down as the clear winner. Following behind are Estonia with odds as low as 4/1. That puts her level with Cyprus and the Czech Republic, who are also as low as 4/1.

Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Finland, Belgium and Belarus round out the top 10 in terms of who will win this semi-final.

SEMI-FINAL 1 ODDS TO WIN ACCURATE 16:50CET

SEMI-FINAL 1 ODDS TO QUALIFY: ACCURATE 16:50CET

For many countries, however, the main priority is making it to the Grand Final. That makes the odds to qualify perhaps more significant than the odds to win this semi.

The bookies believe these 10 acts will qualify for the final: Israel, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Armenia and Belgium.

That means Azerbaijan, Switzerland, Finland, Belarus, Croatia, Ireland, Albania, FYR Macedonia and Iceland are out.

The non-qualifiers currently include fan favorite Finland. The bookies also think that Azerbaijan is out for the first time ever.

 

FOR MORE EUROVISION ODDS NEWS CLICK HERE

 

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NickC
NickC
5 years ago

Here is the update on algorithm. Israel is down to 6th. In semi 2, Sweden, Norway, Moldova, Ukraine, Australia, Denmark, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland and Latvia are predicted to qualify, and it ‘seems’ more certain than semi 1. 1 Cyprus 94.41 2 France 92.50 3 Sweden 87.06 4 Norway 84.85 5 Bulgaria 83.38 6 Israel 82.94 7 Estonia 80.29 8 Czech Rep 78.82 9 Austria 71.62 10 Moldova 69.41 11 Lithuania 67.06 12 Ukraine 62.06 13 Finland 61.62 14 Germany 60.00 15 Australia 60.00 16 Spain 57.65 17 Ireland 54.93 18 Italy 54.85 19 Portugal 52.50 20 Denmark 43.24 21 Hungary… Read more »

Azotman
Azotman
5 years ago

Bonsoir Lisboa,
Voici mes qualifiés pour cette 1ère demi finale :

Grèce
Chypre
Estonie
A.R.Y. Macédoine
Finlande
Lituanie
Arménie
Irlande
Rép. Tchèque
Albanie

Il risque d’y avoir pas mal de surprises ce soir. Je me réjouis. Que le meilleur gagne !
Bisous.

Burger
Burger
5 years ago

This semi will be a bloodbath – one or two will not qualify that would do if they were on Thursday night . Definite (based on draw order only and not an indication of preference) – Czech Republic, Israel, Estonia, Bulgaria, Cyprus Probably – Lithuania, Austria Likely – Greece (which will get Cyprus votes) Finland (good live performer and the UK is voting in this semi final and she was an X Factor contestant in UK) Maybe (choose one of) – Azerbaijan (might actually need Armenians to vote for it!), Belgium (a bit sick of Bond movie theme songs), Armenia… Read more »

janet kench
janet kench
5 years ago

i was taken aback about Finland, it would be a shame for her not to go through as the act is certainly one of the best on stage.

Anthony de France
Anthony de France
5 years ago

cyprus number one in the bookies ? whats’s wrong with the odds this year ? !!!!!

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 years ago

The odds are largely people-driven. They are more likely to anticipate where the TELEVOTERS will go; but mark my words; the JURIES will see things just a bit differently.

lasse braun
lasse braun
5 years ago

i will hope that saara can reach the final in this hardest tough semi ever!
no monsters in the final no fun.

Kit Kat
Kit Kat
5 years ago

Copy/paste from the Press Center votes on escportugal (doesn’t need translation I guess 🙂 ) : “1.º Chipre – 103 pontos 2.º Lituânia – 67 pontos 3.º Suíça – 27 pontos 4.º Estónia – 22 pontos 5.º Bulgária – 20 pontos 6.º República Checa – 14 pontos 7.º Finlândia – 12 pontos 8.º Irlanda – 11 pontos 9.º Azerbaijão – 10 pontos 10.º Albânia – 8 pontos 11.º Áustria – 7 pontos 12.º Israel – 4 pontos 13.º Bélgica – 3 pontos 14.º Arménia – 2 pontos 15.º Croácia – 2 pontos 16.º Grécia – 2 pontos 17.º ARJ Macedónia… Read more »

Piotrek
Piotrek
5 years ago
Reply to  Kit Kat

Switzerland. What a surprise.

Israel falling apart big time.

Yaa
Yaa
5 years ago
Reply to  Kit Kat

How about Portugal get’s suspended for this?!

Im not your troll, you stupid boy
Im not your troll, you stupid boy
5 years ago
Reply to  Yaa

Is this the jury votes? The top 3 is so bad.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 years ago

The press voted. Obviously they overestimated Switzerland’s chances.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 years ago
Reply to  Kit Kat

They crapped out on Switzerland and Azerbaijan. Did they really think Israel would collapse that bad?

Kit Kat
Kit Kat
5 years ago

Tonight I’ll watch it as the Grand Final!! My top 10 are acting, really sad to lose so many good ones.
Thursday won’t really be interesting compared to tonight…

Edgar
Edgar
5 years ago

Did you see that CYPRUS IS THE NEW FAVORITE TO WIN THE WHOE COMPETITION ?!!

Luke A
Luke A
5 years ago

I’ll be happy if Belgium, Finland and Estonia make it would be good if Ireland made it too but don’t think they will

Kaz
Kaz
5 years ago

Can we say it out loud? Switzerland to the grand final? Or is anybody scared Switzerland might actually qualify for once?

Maria
Maria
5 years ago
Reply to  Kaz

Switzerland has a really great song. If this song were Sweden’s, nobody would have doubts about its qualification. So pity.

Ally
Ally
5 years ago
Reply to  Maria

It won’t qualify, especially in semi like this, song and performance is not so bad, but forgettable.

poe-tay-toe-chips
poe-tay-toe-chips
5 years ago

Swap Armenia for Albania an I’d agree that this is probably how this will turn out

My2Cents
My2Cents
5 years ago

On. Point. *sheds a tear*

Trocatroc
Trocatroc
5 years ago

Have you guys seen the press poll?!?!

esc1234
esc1234
5 years ago
Reply to  Trocatroc

its INSANE who votes in this???

Ally
Ally
5 years ago
Reply to  esc1234

They should better focus on their press job then to play some kind of voters and ”experts”

LawStudent
LawStudent
5 years ago

Preach!

LawStudent
LawStudent
5 years ago

Definite Qualifiers (5): Estonia, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus

Good Chance of Qualifying (5): Austria, Finland, Croatia, Greece, Belgium

Toss Ups (5): Armenia, Albania, Belarus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan

Definite Non-Qualifyiers (4): Iceland, Ireland, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland

Leo M
Leo M
5 years ago

Just hearing about the jury show and I believe Croatia, Albania, Cyprus and Ireland were among the best. Also read Bulgaria has a complete disaster, could be a shock non-qualifier.

Pera
Pera
5 years ago

My prediction for tomorrow I semi final
1.Bulgaria
2.Israel
3.Estonia
4.Cyprus
5.Lithuania
6.Austria
7.Czech Republic
8.Azerbaijan
9.Belarus
10.Finland

11.Belgium
12.Greece
13.Armenia
14.Albania
15.Ireland
16.Croatia
17.F.Y.R Macedonia
18.Iceland
19.Switzerland

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 years ago

I have not watched a single second of the rehearsals; but based on the songs and videos that were released, here is how I picture the first semifinal:

9.61 Estonia
9.52 Bulgaria
9.50 Albania
9.50 Israel
9.46 Austria
9.46 Greece
9.46 Lithuania
9.43 Czech Republic
9.42 Armenia
9.37 Belarus

Pedro
Pedro
5 years ago

so I have heard songs from jury show and there was realy 2 good surprises- Austia and Lithuania- so they are back in the game again. Shock was – Bulgaria- worst entry they have done here (maybe too nervous). Israel was total mess as predicted- esecially weak was the end of song- so no big point from jury 100%

Estonia was very good. So my prediction :
Sure finalists :
Estonia
Austria
Lithuania
Finland
Albania
Cypros

Borderline
Irasel
Azerbajan
Swicerland
Belarus
Iceland

LawStudent
LawStudent
5 years ago
Reply to  Pedro

ESCUnited also watched the jury performance from Lisbon and they all agreed that this was Netta’s best performance since rehearsals started. One of them even argued she will win this semi. Wiwibloggs predicts also that she will sail through. So please don’t speak in definitive terms – because you clearly have no idea what juries will do. Thank you.

Olivier2
Olivier2
5 years ago
Reply to  LawStudent

Like Wiwibloggs,ESCUnited , nor you know either. Best songs ha. More like best barn animal music. Juries unlike most voters have actually musical experience and I’m certain they won’t let chicken music easily sail through

LawStudent
LawStudent
5 years ago
Reply to  Olivier2

Most juries are past contestants or past composers or past producers in ESC – they know all about this competition. No reason to think they will not share the same love that the ESC community has given this song and Netta making it number 1 in all lists coming into Lisbon. You have a clear distaste and hatred, to a point where you use derogatory language – thats totally your choice, but prepare to be disappointed tomorrow.

Sabrina
Sabrina
5 years ago

And now Switzerland also left Azerbaijan behind. For some reason, the bookies went crazy about the siblings on the last 24 hours.

Sabrina
Sabrina
5 years ago
Reply to  Sabrina

But I was talking about the odds to qualify, not to win the contest.

Peter
Peter
5 years ago

1. Cyprys <3 Black, dark horse
2. Czech Republic
3. Estonia
4. Austria , big progress
5.Israel
6. Greece
7. Bulgaria
8. Finland, big disappointment
9. Belgium
10. Lithuania

Alex
Alex
5 years ago
Reply to  Peter

Cyprus is not a dark horse…hello is like 3rd in the odds!

Peter
Peter
5 years ago
Reply to  Alex

WOW! Now Cyprus is first!

Nick
Nick
5 years ago

So this is a very hard semi-final. This is my prediction (NOT OPINION. PREDICTION).
Sure qualifiers: Israel, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Bulgaria
Might qualify (likely): Finland, Greece, Belgium
Borderline (fighting for the 2 last spots): Albania, Lithuania, Austria, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Belarus
Likely to not qualify, but who knows: Armenia, Switzerland
Sorry, bye: FYR. Macedonia (the song is in my top 10 lol), Ireland, Iceland

It will be interesting 🙂 My personal favourites are Lithuania, Albania, Estonia, Croatia and Belarus. I will be sad if Switzerland doesn’t make it though 🙁

Marvic
Marvic
5 years ago

I want Lithuania, Macedonia, Switzerland, Belgium and Finland in the final

Trocatroc
Trocatroc
5 years ago

People laughed at me putting money on Estonia but I really think they have a very good chance of winning!

Yaa
Yaa
5 years ago

Belarus is absolutely qualifying, mark my words! I really hope Abania makes it, I think juries will push it. I think Austria , Armenia and even Estonia wil not qualify- I can see the downvotes pouring but I’m ok, it’s not from the guts, I have my reasons. For starters only try to imagen the juries reaction to the Led dress, so Portugal said no leds, let the music triumph and they bring their own expensive ripped dress, and meanwhile they know that their own delegations had to do without led, just lights and props. Plenty of reasons more, if… Read more »

Azerbaijan2019
Azerbaijan2019
5 years ago

I literally only want Azerbaijan to qualify 🙁 Everyone else has their favorites going in, like Czech and Israel and Bulgaria, But the only one I want to see in the final might not make it…

Tris
Tris
5 years ago
Reply to  Azerbaijan2019

Same! To be honest, I just want Azerbaijan to qualify and I don’t care who makes up the remaining 9 slots.

Donald duck
Donald duck
5 years ago

1Cyprus,2Austria,3Ireland,4Bulgary,5Czech Rep,6Belarus,7Armenia,8Switzerland,9Croatia,10Albania
hope this ten go to the final

Martina
Martina
5 years ago

Albania will qualify due to Albanian diaspora in Austria, Switzerland, Greece, FYR Macedonia…..and all these countries are in 1 semi .

Christian
Christian
5 years ago
Reply to  Martina

Last year, I saw an ad from RTSH where they were shamelessly trying to get their diaspora ready to vote lol.

Martina
Martina
5 years ago
Reply to  Christian

I really didin’t saw this advertisment that are you talking about. So i don’t have an opinion!!! But the Albania’s song is really good and his voice is also amazing ..and i think the jury will vote posivitely for Albania

Pera
Pera
5 years ago
Reply to  Martina

For final countries must to collect minimum 100 points to go to final. Albania will gets maybe 12 points from Austria, Switzerland, Macedonia from televote that is 36 points, from Greece 10 points ,12 points go to Cyprus. This is 46 points they must collect 54 points from all juries and other countries in televote. Albania deserve to go to final, but we saw in past that juries doesn t support Albania very much (only one time in 2012).

Christian
Christian
5 years ago

I’m surprised to see Lithuania as possible qualifier. Maybe it’s a dark horse this year. I think it deserves more to qualify for the Final than France!

scdc
scdc
5 years ago

israeli song is foolish.. its title should be CHICKEN SONG by NETTA

Nicky
Nicky
5 years ago
Reply to  scdc

YOU ARE A FOOLISH

Jim
Jim
5 years ago
Reply to  scdc

israel’s song is great and it’s gonna win #dealwithit

omri
omri
5 years ago
Reply to  scdc

and cyprus singing about how hot she is … thats better???? hypocrits

HOTLINEBLINGFROMLISBOA

Here is the latest gossip from Lisboa
This morning one of Serbia’s singers was spotted leaving Armenia’s singer Sevak’s room which they spent night together after party. blonde one….

Jim
Jim
5 years ago

alfred cheated on amaia with foureira #almaiaisoverparty

Carolyn Cameron
Carolyn Cameron
5 years ago

Saara will qualify…no doubt about it!. Great song, great singer…#monsters #snowfairies #esc #ketsdothis

Y tho?
Y tho?
5 years ago

Lol, people thinking Albania will struggle to qualify, but they forget Switzerland, Austria, Macedonia, Greece and Belgium vote in this semi. Which is translated in roughly 56 diaspora televotes. Lol.

And instead of complaining and sending “thoughts and prayers” to Eugent, how about ACTUALLY VOTING FOR HIM TOMORROW?

Alex
Alex
5 years ago
Reply to  Y tho?

Exactly! #squadgoals

Maria
Maria
5 years ago

Come on, Jury is also voting, televotes only 50%. We can see approx. what televoters might like…. but Jury.. nooone knows. Jury always know how to surprise

Paul
Paul
5 years ago

Symbolism

Olivier2
Olivier2
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul

Feminism to an extreme

beccaboo1212
5 years ago

The following countries better prove the bookies wrong tomorrow: (in other words, qualify!)

* Albania
* Azerbaijan
* Ireland
* Iceland
* Finland
* Switzerland

My2Cents
My2Cents
5 years ago
Reply to  beccaboo1212

*Croatia
*Lithuania

Marcelo
Marcelo
5 years ago
Reply to  beccaboo1212

It’s impossible for all of those to qualify. And considering half of them are almost certain non-qualifiers (not only by bookies, but by press, fans, polls, etc.), you’re gonna be very sad tomorrow.

Tinou
Tinou
5 years ago

Please vote for Belgium! I would die if Sennek doesn’t qualify tomorrow… :p It’s a SOS from Belgian fans who feel as bad as last year with Blanche who ruined her song in semi.

Jim
Jim
5 years ago
Reply to  Tinou

she cant sing the high notes and the staging is dull, so no

Olivier2
Olivier2
5 years ago
Reply to  Tinou

Sure

Netta forever
Netta forever
5 years ago

”Toy” is like ”Yodel It”
Only televote can save it.

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago

Also, remember each semi the juries save one song from the cruel televote and vice-versa. I can see Lithuania being saved by the juries and Finland being saved by the televote (maybe Macedonia) and Semi 2 I can see the juries saving Malta and the televote saving Hungary

esc1234
esc1234
5 years ago

Finland will loose the final simply because they have made it a circus act. Sometimes less is more…

mark dowd
mark dowd
5 years ago

I can’t believe you guys made FYROM a “lock”……you may live to regret that decision!

Tedi
Tedi
5 years ago

1. Cyprus 100%
2. Estonia 100%
3. Greece 100%
4. Israel 100%
5. Finland 80%
6. Bulgaria 80%
7. Croatia 65%
8. Austria 65%
9. Czech Republic or Albania 50%
10. Switzerland or Lithuania 50%

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Tedi

as long as skinny estonia and finland qualify I agree!

beccaboo1212
5 years ago
Reply to  Tedi

Hopefully Albania and Switzerland make it to Saturday as well. 🙂

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  beccaboo1212

oh god no thank you

Héctor
Héctor
5 years ago

With the rehearsals my opinion on who will qualify has changed a little, so here is my prediction:
Sure:
1. Israel
2. Bulgaria
3. Estonia
4. Czech Republic

Very likely:
5. Cyprus
6. Austria

Likely even if they have disappointed:
7. Belgium
8. Greece

Really struggling:
9. Albania
10. Lithuania

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Héctor

Austria will qualify <7th.

Albania 9th will never happen.

beccaboo1212
5 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

Albania should be in the Top 5 😮

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  beccaboo1212

Bottom 5 honey x

Kyna
Kyna
5 years ago

My wigs, tissues and defibrillator (in case of heart attack) are ready for tomorrow night.

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Kyna

Who do you think will snatch your wig?

Kyna
Kyna
5 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

Well Elina snatched it first months ago so I had to order new wigs. Cyprus is also contender for that 😀

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Kyna

oh my since December I have been left wigless. rude of elina smh.

I am hoping for finland and Macedonia too otherwise tears

Ulises
Ulises
5 years ago

Lithuania and Armenia will definitely stay in semis, so there’ll be 2 free passes for either Finland, Belarus, Croatia or even Ireland, depending on how the televote will respond to their performances. Saara Aalto might benefit from fans votes.

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Ulises

deffo top 5 in uk televote

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXa5VXh5Jyg

how kind of equinox to clear the top three for estonia xoxo

Skiwalko
Skiwalko
5 years ago

I just have a feeling, that Czech Republic won’t make the final, placing 11-13. Hopefully it won’t happen, but it’s just an intuition.

My predicted qualifiers right now are (in random order): Austria, Croatia, Israel, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Armenia, Cyprus, Ireland, Estonia and Belgium (maybe again being announced last). But I’m REALLY excited for the actual results, and I’m 99% sure I missed some.

Netta is a feminist, bad. Im not a toy.
Netta is a feminist, bad. Im not a toy.
5 years ago

The qualifers: ESTONIA, ISRAEL, BULGARIA, CYPRUS, CZECH, GREECE
6th-10th: FINLAND, BELGIUM, ALBANIA, AUSTRIA.
Maybe qualifies: Armenia, Azerbaijan
Very small chance: Lithuania, Belarus, Ireland
Won’t go to the final: Croatia, Switzerland, Iceland and FYRO Macedonia.

beccaboo1212
5 years ago

As long as Albania qualifies, I agree with the 6th-10th area. 🙂

Ren
Ren
5 years ago

I agree. A reasonable prediction.

Arizona
Arizona
5 years ago

If Albania doesnt make it to the final that means albanian diaspore votes will go to Eleni. Isnt already clear enough that Cyprus is this year’s real dark horse?

Alex
Alex
5 years ago
Reply to  Arizona

I don’t think so because Ermal from Italy is also Albanian. He is more likable, compared to Eleni who is covered with controversy. Still wondering if she even knows Albanian. Ermal speaks Albanian perfectly and is going to do a free concert in Tirana in June.

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Alex

where is the eleni controversy you speak of lmaoo

she is one of the classiest and most genuine acts ESC have ever seen

Alex
Alex
5 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

google it lol I can’t go through it, I don’t wanna argue.

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Alex

I don’t want to argue either! I’m just curious, is it anything sinister?

Alex
Alex
5 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

Omg I wrote a long detailed reply but it said it has to await moderation! It has to be approved 🙁

Aaron
Aaron
5 years ago
Reply to  Alex

ahhhh now!!! maybe try again without writing using any “flag” words maybe? thanks so much by the way!

Well well
Well well
5 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

For some years, 2008-2014, she wouldn’t admit to being Albanian, once said she was Mexican (2011) but later retracted and refused to answer the question again… And after she came out she said her grandfather was Greek and she was naturalized quickly, which people took with a grain of salt because rumors only started after a passport mishap. Anyway, good for her to come out and be proud of her roots, I think that also brought her very close to the gay community. However because of the controversy, she is not exactly a role model for the Albanian diaspora, at… Read more »

Well well
Well well
5 years ago
Reply to  Well well

Don’t shoot the messenger please. Just stating the story for those who asked for it.

Martina
Martina
5 years ago
Reply to  Arizona

I think the votes from albanian diaspora they will go to Italy because Ermal Meta is Albanian..not to Cyprus