Let the qualification speculation begin! 

Tonight the Eurovision 2019 semi-final allocation draw took place in Tel Aviv Israel and we now know which semi-final countries will compete in.

We also know the semi-finals the Big Five and Israel will be voting in.

Although running order will be announced in the spring once all competing songs have been announced, fans can now begin to speculate about which countries will make the Grand Final in Tel Aviv in May.

When do the Big 5 and Israel vote?

Semi-Final 1

  • France
  • Israel
  • Spain

Semi-Final 2

  • Germany
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom

Eurovision 2019 semi-final allocation draw:

Semi-Final 1

First Half

  • Belarus
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Finland
  • Hungary
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Serbia
  • Slovenia

Second Half

  • Australia
  • Belgium
  • Estonia
  • Georgia
  • Greece
  • Iceland
  • Portugal
  • San Marino
  • Ukraine

On first glance, this appears the more open of the two semi-finals. Australia is in the second half for the first time in history and Belgium breaks a run of first half draws. Greece and Cyprus are together for a fourth consecutive contest, Finland and Estonia may benefit from a vote exchange, and with Spain voting in this semi-final Portugal should stand to benefit. Poland, Belarus and Ukraine also historically swap votes.

Semi-Final 2

First Half

  • Armenia
  • Austria
  • Denmark
  • Ireland
  • Latvia
  • Moldova
  • Romania
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland

Second Half

  • Albania
  • Azerbaijan
  • Croatia
  • Lithuania
  • FYR Macedonia
  • Malta
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Russia

On paper this is the tougher of the semi-finals. Heavyweights Russia and Sweden are on the scene, with other frequent qualifiers Austria, Moldova, Romania, Denmark, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Norway, the Netherlands and Lithuania also in the mix. However, until we see a running order and hear all the songs, discussion beyond this point is premature.

Producers will unveil the running order for the Semi-Finals once all acts have been received by the EBU and announced publicly. That announcement typically comes in late March or early April.

What do you make of the running order? Let us know in the comments below!

GET MORE EUROVISION 2019 NEWS HERE

Photo Credit: EBU

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AngieP
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AngieP

1st semi:
Things looking good for Cyprus (Greece and Georgia are in the same semi).
I think it’s the most open semi of the 2. There are many countries which usually struggle to qualify (Belarus, Cyprus, Czech Rep, Finland, Montenegro, Slovenia, Georgia, Iceland, Portugal, San Marino to name just a few) and it will be interesting to see who’s in and who’s out of the grand final.

2nd semi:
Things looking good for Russia and Sweden obviously. Anything is possible here too.

Generally I think we’ll see 2 very interesting and exciting semi finals.

SoldierOfLove
Guest
SoldierOfLove

YES!!! Serbia’s got Montenegro and Slovenia in the first semi-final! If we choose Dženan Lon?arevi?, who is too big of a star to have a bad song, he could drink up jury points like Željko in 2012. Let’s not forget he’s a Bosniak so we could potentially unite the Serbian and Bosnian diasporas to dominate the vote from Western Europe and the Balkans! Let’s hope he has enough fans to win Beovizija, and since he’s from my region I’ll make sure to vote as much as I can!

Nikko
Guest
Nikko

So Armenia and Azerbaijan are again in the same Semi-Final. Which means all jury members of both countries will rank the other country in the last place regardless of the song. They do it like this every year. So my appeal to EBU would be to send an EBU official to both countries and this person should address that they should vote for the song and not rank them last just because they are Armenia/Azerbaijan. We all know that there are political tensions between those countries but this should not influence the ranking. If it happened for the first time,… Read more »

Roelof Meesters
Guest
Roelof Meesters

Remember 2009 when Azerbaijan hunted down the 40 or so people who voted For Armenia? I think that if a jury member from Azerbaijan or Armenia would publicly vote for one another then people will see them as if they betrayed their country or something like that. The best thing to do is to have Azerbaijan and Armenia in separate semi’s, but the even better thing would be that those juries would just vote for eachother normally, but I don’t think that will happen quite soon 🙁

MarkoH
Guest
MarkoH

To cut the story short – it all comes down to the song.
In 2018 we’ve all witnessed first non-qualifications of a few nations. Even making conclusions with neighbour-voting is kinnda pointless…

dual lipper
Guest
dual lipper

The 2nd semifinal is too hectic. Not fair at all

Woutergoku
Guest
Woutergoku

Although The Netherlands is in the tougher semi, they have a lot of voting ‘friends’ with the Scandinavian/Baltic and West-Europe block. I don’t know why but I have a good feeling about Duncan, but they need to step up their game to qualify. But i’m positive 🙂

Mr. Vanilla Bean
Guest
Mr. Vanilla Bean

Pænda will represent Austria with the song Limits.

Klaus
Guest

Yeah its paenda ?
Greetz from Styria

Loin dici
Guest
Loin dici

It’s Pænda for Austria!

T.J.
Guest
T.J.

AMAZING CHOICE!!!!!
#bluehairpower

Jovan Matoski
Guest
Jovan Matoski

You forgot to include Macedonia. It’s in the second half of the second semifinal.

Loin dici
Guest
Loin dici

Assi mixed up the semifinal half bowls twice and i’m LIVING

Martin
Guest
Martin

Knowing that the Swedish Viking Block will inevitably always be divided between the two semis, the draw couldn’t be more favorable for Sweden – literally all of Scandinavia is in their semi (hej, Norway and Denmark!).

Looks like a lot of the tight pairs ended up in the same semi. Is it time to revisit the pot allocation logic in favor of having some countries always in separate semis? I’m looking at you, Cyprus-Greece, Romania-Moldova, Serbia-Montenegro!

Joe
Guest
Joe

Just saying, no matter what happens, at least one country is returning to the final to fill Bulgaria’s spot.

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Latvia tho. Dead on the arrival.

frifri
Guest
frifri

UK, Ireland, Lithuania, maybe Germany , Norway or Azerbaijan. Not bad at all.

Matthew
Guest
Matthew

Lol at all the people in here complaining about people saying which semi is stronger. Can you stop being a negative nancy and let us eurofans analyze the semis and have an opinion on which is stronger we have ears we know all the songs are not released but let us have some fun :p

MikolasFan
Guest
MikolasFan

don’t you do the same with complaining about people who are complaining about other people? LMAO!

ayy lmao
Guest
ayy lmao

belgium should make it i guess…..

Loran
Guest
Loran

We’re in the slightly weaker semi (according to the history of countries in eurovision) but of course you never know! I really hope so though!

EscGreece
Guest
EscGreece

I’m really rooting for Albania this year. Having FYROM and Italy and Switzerland on the same semi will get them quite a few points (24 from FYROM plus 12-18 from Italy plus 10-18 from switzerland) and they will probably snatch some 3-6 points from different countries too. I wish Albania had Belgium, Greece and Montenegro too though 🙁

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Maybe Azerbaijan will give them points too.

Nadav
Guest
Nadav

Wiwibloggs, you guys should do a video on the hosts! We just saw the green room hosts together for the first time, which is a pretty big deal.

Jay
Guest
Jay

What happened to people voting for the song and not the country ?

Max
Guest
Max

That is really sad

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Assumptions. Apart from Sweden, Russia, and probably Cyprus, all the other countries are still fighting for the qualification card. I’d also say Latvia will go home earlier.

Bahog Bilal Hassani
Guest
Bahog Bilal Hassani

I think that’s an obvious notion a long time ago

MikolasFan
Guest
MikolasFan

People, we still don’t know most of the songs , how anyone could say which semi is stronger ? Its easily could be that most of an amazing songs could be from semi 1 and most bland ones from semi 2, im gonna hold my opinion for now

Rose
Guest
Rose

I just hope we don’t have an imbalance of quality with the semis like we did last year. That would be bad.

sandpaper
Guest
sandpaper

I’m not even gonna try to say which semi is harder…. cause last year I was thinking SF2 was gonna be real good…. and I was mad wrong.

Darren
Guest
Darren

Will semi 2 be the death group once more? Some big names here, with Sweden and Russia. I’m expecting Azerbaijan and Armenia to come back fighting after non qualification last year. Bit unfair that Norway, Sweden and Denmark are in the same semi. For my country, Ireland, I think it’s quite tough, but we have UK voting, along with the Nordic’s and Switzerland who sometimes throw high points our way. Last years was more difficult and we qualified in 6th place so I guess anything can happen. Although it’s early to say, as we don’t know the songs, I’ll throw… Read more »

Aisling
Guest
Aisling

Good man Darren I agree with ye

Savalan
Guest
Savalan

Hello. I’m from Azerbaijan. As u said after the first non qualification Azerbaijan will be in game

Eastman
Guest
Eastman

Cyprus are going to qualify regardless of whether Greece is in the same semi-final.

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

Norway in SF 2 for the 8th time in a row, Greece and Finland together for the 9th time in a row. Fate or likelihood?

Jake Dallas
Guest
Jake Dallas

Also Czech Republic and Iceland have always been together.

Roelof Meesters
Guest
Roelof Meesters

And it’s the first time Finland and Ukraine are in the same semi. And The Netherlands and Russia are drawn together for the 7th time in a row.

milky
Guest
milky

Well It’s over for Estonia!

Rasmus
Guest
Rasmus

they qualified from the toughest ever 2018 with a super song. So no its not

milky
Guest
milky

Yes but in 2018 we had an amazing song and an amazing singer but almost all of the Eesti Laul 2019 songs are generic and it’s safe to say that we wont qualify lol

Ell
Guest
Ell

How can you already say that If you don’t know many of the songs? And Estonia is in the second half so I think that’s good for them.

milky
Guest
milky

Nah

uzhas
Guest
uzhas

agree with milky. Estonian selection is quite bland

Rasmus
Guest
Rasmus

Estonia have some nice choices i think. Latvia dont.

Jhon go
Guest
Jhon go

Noone can predict which semi is the toughest. Let me remind you all that last year, after the allocation draw, we all said that SF2 is much stronger, but after all songs where published, it turned out that SF1 was the real bloodbath and perhaps the best semi ever.
Great job Israel!! The show was great.

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

Some interesting facts:
– Norway is in the SF 2 for the 8th time in tthe row
– Finland and Greece are in the same semi-final for the 9th time in a row

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

I’m sorry for this double comment, it didn’t pop out when I first wrote it, and here it is 1 hour later.

Jakob
Guest
Jakob

The second semifinal has the “German-Speaking-Triangle” Austria and Switzerland may get some support from Germany and each other

Greetings from Austria
Guest
Greetings from Austria

HAHAHAHAHA that’s a nice joke! never gonna happen, but a change would be nice

Kaz
Guest
Kaz

Especially since Switzerland is rumoured to send Luca Hänni, who is extremely popular in both Germany (he won a talent show there) and Austria. 24 + 24 points for him?

Tanya Lung
Guest
Tanya Lung

Let me SHOUT OUT to the hosts, Tel-Aviv’s mayor, and the broadcaster KAN. They really put out an AMAZING show, and thinking that it’s just the warmup for the real thing.
In my opinion, the best allocation draw show EVER!
Good luck from Germany.

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

I’m hoping for an interval act with mayor playing on the flute in May.

Tonton Fée
Guest
Tonton Fée

Go Bilal our King of this eurovision song contest !!!!
Dare Dream. 😉

Aris
Guest
Aris

Go Cyprus! #Replay Slay
Queen Tamta !

Pandaman
Guest
Pandaman

Uhm, I mean… we haven’t heard the song yet, right?

esc1234
Guest
esc1234

Shall we talk about the iconic mayor? HE IS A LEGEND AND HE SHOULD BE ON THE SHOW IN MAY

Roy Moreno
Guest
Roy Moreno

I hope it will help Jonida with qualifying! I really want her to make it through <3

Joe
Guest
Joe

They’ve got Macedonia and Italy helping them out

Marc
Guest
Marc

And Switzerland

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Looking good for Albania.

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

I’m glad Portugal and Albania are in different SFs. Conan’s song is kind of similar to Jonida’s, so it could’ve been a clash between them two, if he wins FdC.

Elsa
Guest
Elsa

Conan’s song is very different from Jonida’s c’mon.

Paul
Guest
Paul

Conan´s song is INFINITELY better!

Thomas
Guest
Thomas

Well Cyprus has guaranteed points from Georgia and Greece! The only one I will say is locked as a finalist right now is Cyprus, and Sweden

Idksmth
Guest
Idksmth

OK, I am feeling more ambitious and hopeful for Latvia.

Roelof Meesters
Guest
Roelof Meesters

Yes it’s early but I always love this moment becuase I feel that ESC really starts now! SF1 – Weaker semi so far, the Czech Republic is really bad. – Greece and Cyprus, really? – Serbia and Montenegro, really? – San Marino and, oh wait, they have no one, Italy and Malta are gone XD. – Cyprus is in a great spot, in the weaker semi and they have Greece and Georgia. – Australia and Ukraine are the only ones to have never missed the final, so that’ll be interesting to see them dominate this semi. – Portugal could very… Read more »

blueeyed
Guest
blueeyed

You forgot to add Norway and Sweden for Lithuania. Since there is a large Lithuanian diaspora in these countries, I’d expect some points for Lithuania from them.

Egle
Guest
Egle

Yass I think Estonia got a good draw 🙂

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Greece and Cyprus together again. Also Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the Nordics in SF2.

Roy Moreno
Guest
Roy Moreno

Armenia and Azerbaijan usually don’t vote for each other…

Giorgio
Guest
Giorgio

More like never

Aaandi
Guest
Aaandi

They mean the fact that they never vote to each other, so they’re always at a disadvantage when together in the same semi.

CDoc
Guest
CDoc

They also don’t have Georgia for extra points and Georgia doesn’t have them so those three might struggle, although Russia will probably boost Armenia and Azerbaijan’s points up. In the end it depends on songs however even if politics play a part.

Redmoon
Guest
Redmoon

SF1 seems way more exciting because only Ukraine and Australia are ‘guaranteed’ to qualify. Then again… Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia (remember last year?) aren’t guaranteed to qualify. The draw seems really good this year

Sabrina
Guest
Sabrina

We were speculating in the Maltese X-Factor’s post if Michela would be the first artist born in the 21st Century to perform in Eurovision. It turns out that if Laura wins in Romania, she’ll perform before. Let’s see if another teenage prodigy also arises.

Antranig Shokayan
Editor

Eliot from Belgium is in the first semi!

Sabrina
Guest
Sabrina

But Eliot was born in 2000. According to Wikipedia, in december 29th, so almost 21st Century, but still 20th!

Daniel
Guest
Daniel

Deleted

Greetings from Austria
Guest
Greetings from Austria

Actually, Kristian Kostov who sang for Bulgaria in 2017 was born in 2000, so i guess he was the first artist to be born in the 21st century, right?

Edit: nevermind, that’s the 20th.

Pandaman
Guest
Pandaman

21st century started on January 1st, 2001.

Sabrina
Guest
Sabrina

Exactly. There wasn’t a “year zero”, so each century starts in a year finished by 1.

romanian
Guest
romanian

Can you imagine that Laura can represent Romania, and Il Volo can represent Italy, so they will meet again after Americans Got Talent?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYaX-FuvmL4
But for the first time Romania will have international jury that will decide 80 % or even more of the final result. So unpredictable.

Loin dici
Guest
Loin dici

If Leea Nanos won AD: GC, she would be the first, but I don’t see that happening.

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

I wasn’t sure if I should write anything about the allocation, cause last year our prediction about SF 2 being like Hunger Games was mostly wrong. But a small analysis does no harm. SF1 – judging by last year voting, Serbia has a big chance of collecting points from Slovenia and especially Montenegro and vice versa – Cyprus and Greece together, duh – 12 points from Poland (and maybe Czech Republic) to Ukraine in the televote? – Belarus – Ukraine action? – Georgia left without other Caucasian brothers, getting points from post-Soviet countries? – Australia again high with the jury… Read more »

Lola
Guest
Lola

Belgium have been without the Netherlands a lot in recent years, and I must point out as well that they dont give each other that many points like they used to do 20 years ago. What could help Belgium is France voting in semi 1, especially since it’s the walloon broadcasters turn this year and the entry might be in French.

Cyprus and Greece is just going to be 12-12 again, same old, same old. Just like Romania-Moldova and the scandinavian trio. Hopefully the juries will be impartial enough to filter these friendly voters

Probably
Guest
Probably

Lola, I agree with you!

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

Belgium giving Netherlands 12 points in the televote last year, 10 points two years ago, 10 points three years ago , 6 points in SF in 2015, and 8 points in 2014 made me include this.

Yaa
Guest
Yaa

To Romania- Moldova situation you can safely add Italy voting in semifinal 2, those 1.5 mil Romanians living there will pick up the phone for sure! And for Laura even the italians will do it!

Gin
Guest
Gin

I fail to see how getting points from one country is a huge boon. It’s not enough.

Rasmus
Guest
Rasmus

I hope NorthMacedonia, Switzerland, Lithuania and Ireland have supersongs. If they do they can qualify :). Lithuania have some nice ones to choose from.

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

Speaking of which why didn’t they properly change the name of Northern Macedonia in the cards today? The EBU wants to start a war?

Pandaman
Guest
Pandaman

Because F.Y.R. Macedonia haven’t changed their name yet. The parliament agreed on the name change, but the change itself hasn’t taken place yet.

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

Thanks for the clarification.. is there an estimate for when will that happen? Will it be before Eurovision?

Pandaman
Guest
Pandaman

Can’t find the proper info anywhere. The parliament voted only three days ago, though, so it may take some time.

Olivia Mac Arthur
Guest
Olivia Mac Arthur

It is expected to take place by mid-March so plenty of time before Eurovision

LawStudent
Guest
LawStudent

So guess what Israel ESC 2019 will see a new country entry after all haha!

Rasmus
Guest
Rasmus

i like NorthMacedonia. It sounds nice. North or Northern. its the same thing. In sweden its NorthMacedonia

Redmoon
Guest
Redmoon

Lol, Lithuania already has 48 points on lock (Ireland, UK, Latvia, Norway)

Roelof Meesters
Guest
Roelof Meesters

Idk about Norway, but they do have an amazing draw.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Big diaspora. Last two acts in the final both got top marks from the Norwegian televote.

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

Well, points from Norway to Lithuania in the televote:
2018: 12 points
2017 (SF): 10 points
2016: 12 points
2015: 6 points overall, 8 points in televote
2014 (SF): 5 points overall, 12 points in televote.
Yeah, Lithuanians is the biggest immigrant group right after Poles there.

John
Guest

It would be impossible for them not to qualify!

uzhas
Guest
uzhas

Latvia not always gives them 12. It’s more likely 12 from Latvian televote will go to Russia or Sweden, juries might give 12 to Lithuania.

Pengu
Guest
Pengu

Latvia is doomed.. bye
If there even was a little hope before, now it’s gone 100%. LT, UK and IRL won’t save them.

Rasmus
Guest
Rasmus

they have one song in their national final thay can qualify with

Francisco Rodrigues
Guest

At the moment I think that second semi final is more complicate to go to the final, but first semi final is more accessible, so this is good to my country, Portugal!!!

Joe
Guest
Joe

San Marino not being in the same semi that either Azerbaijan or Italy are voting in definitely doesn’t help, but that one has an interestingly open field.

Loin dici
Guest
Loin dici

San Marino would struggle since Italy and Germany were already on other semifinal, but it is an interestingly open field.

WAesc
Guest
WAesc

San Marino will likely get points from Australia. Serhat was the highest rated by the public in 2016 according to SBS (we didn’t actually vote in the semi) but still ranked the songs on twitter.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Don’t let me down, Australia!

Eurolover
Guest
Eurolover

NOOOOOO, that means if Estonia pick Jennifer Cohen then we won’t be able to vote for her. *cries*

Antranig Shokayan
Editor

Oh, and also, Armenia and Azerbaijan together forever <3

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

We all remember that one point from 2009, maybe this year is time for some changes?

Dani
Guest
Dani

That won’t happen in near future. They are in war and it’s very serious. I am sure their people would protest if they supported each other in an international contest.

Magpie
Guest
Magpie

Don’t forget the two points in 2008.

Sebastián
Guest
Sebastián

First semi final: – Portugal is gonna qualify to the final. They have Spain and France in the votes. And, supposedly that Portugal choose to Conan Osiris, his song could be so popular in countries with arabic and ottoman influences (e.g Israel, Serbia, Greece, Cyprus, Hungary, Ukraine, Montenegro and a little bit Czech Republic and Slovenia), plus it could do well in countries which usually choose very alternatives proposals like Estonia, Finland and Iceland. Boa sorte pa! – Australia could be for the first time out to the finals. They don’t have the nordic block (principally Denmark and Sweden) support… Read more »