A lot can happen in 24 hours. Just ask the contestants competing at the Eurovision Song Contest 2019. On Thursday the Eurovision 2019 betting odds were changing fast thanks to the revelation of new songs from Duncan Laurence in The Netherlands and Luca Hänni in Switzerland. Let’s take a look at what’s been going down by paying a visit to Oddschecker.
Betting odds accurate as of 00:30 on 8 March 2019
Russia the favourite to win
Russia has been the default favourite to win Eurovision 2019 for months, and it cemented its position following the confirmation in February that Eurovision 2016 televote winner Sergey Lazarev would be returning to the contest. He’s thirsty to get the title that he narrowly missed. On Saturday the singer will finally reveal his music video and song, and we’ll all know whether the bookies’ prediction is built on hype or something far more real. His odds hover between 5/2 and 11/4 at most betting houses.
The Netherlands now second favourite to win
Duncan Laurence’s song “Arcade” has been met with widespread acclaim. The pared-back and thoroughly contemporary ballad has won fans for its visceral quality and highly artistic music video. The vision — and not just of a naked Duncan turning in water — has fans excited for what might unfold on stage in Tel Aviv.
Twenty-four hours ago The Netherlands was fifth favourite with odds of 16/1 at SkyBet. But today the Dutchies find themselves as second favourite, with the bookies having slashed their odds to as low as 6/1. It’s a dramatic narrowing that reflects a very successful song premiere. At the time of writing, his odds were a sea of blue, suggesting they will have dropped even further by the time you’re reading this.
Perennial contenders Sweden find themselves in third position on the eve of the Melodifestivalen final. They haven’t chosen, but the bookies seem to think the likes of John Lundvik, Liamoo & Hanna Ferm and Bishara put them in good stead. Their odds are as low as 6/1 at Ladbrokes.
Italy‘s Mahmood may have lost the televote at home, but that isn’t hurting him with the bookies. He’s currently fourth favourite to win — with odds as low as 9/1. That puts him just ahead of Iceland‘s BDSM techno punk-rock group Hatari (best odds: 10/1) and Cyprus’ current queen Tamta. Her must-listen dance track “Replay” has odds of 12 to 14 at most betting houses, but she’s as low as 7/1 at William Hill.
Bookies slash the odds on Switzerland
Switzerland has made great strides toward the top since their song reveal on Thursday. On Wednesday evening Switzerland was listed as 13th favourite on Oddschecker with odds of 33/1 at William Hill.
But following the premiere of his music video, which sees Luca and his leading lady dancing so low, he’s climbed to seventh position with his odds as low as 14/1. It’s a significant leap and one he can build on with stellar performances at the pre-parties this spring.
What do you make of the Eurovision 2019 betting odds? Are you surprised by the rise of The Netherlands and Switzerland? Do you think they can maintain their momentum? And is this Russia’s to win or lose? Let us know down below…
Eurovision 2019 belongs to Maruv and Hatari. After Maruv’s withdrawal, all other songs are just guests in Hatari’s show. Iceland MUST win. Finally, real conceptual art in the stage of a tired contest.
odds are based on a number of factors. Quality or popularity of the songs is probably 3rd in line. Russia is always amongst top 5 even before song is announced. Netherland’s entry heard it before but still a possible winner. switzerland’s a copy of fuego. italy is really a good entry. cyprus will climb during rehersals
North Macedonia have a winner !!
La venda ya cayoooo oooh .solo quedó la alegría. This is a winner . Vamos Mikiiii.we love you
Azerbaijan is way much better that Netherlands or Russia!
I’m sorry to say but Arcade is a horribly boring song. Its right down there with Croatia’s entry for me. NOW Switzerland is coming in hot. That’s who we really want to see on stage. Hot guy hot song. Other than that, Italy and Iceland are my winners. No tearjerkers this year, tyvm.
I start wondering…. will the winner be a man this year? What are your thoughts?
This is really good, and beautiful live. The best so far. Nice emotive lyrics, superb live. a cut above the rest!
Very nice..nice lyrics.
I have just checked the odds from the 11th of March 2018: Only three songs in the top 10 were in the final top 10. We should always have this in mind.
What the odds got right on the 11th of March 2018 was the winner.
Duncan performing Arcade live:
This can’t go wrong
Yeah. That’s my winner so far. No doubt.
Oh my….He singing it live perfectly…i’m dead, sorry Mahmood but Duncan is my winner of the year, now they need an EPIC staging with Duncan standing alone surrounded by ocean dark deep water ,though i don’t know how its possible to recreate on the stage and what he gonna be wearing? i cant wait to find out!
That was very very nice. Contender for sure.
La Haye 2020! 😛 Duncan winner for 2019! 🙂
I sincerely hope we will get one of those ‘Euovision voting moments’ where someone snatches the crown with 1 point at or so at the end of televoting. Wouldn’t that be delightful?
As long as it isn’t Russia…
I have nothing against those artists and the songs but I really hope Norrsken wins. It seems to me that we have heard those three songs before in some form or another. Cesar Simpson did extremely well and unexpectedly so last year, that’s great, but another gospel this year, no thanks, and the other songs sound so generic. In fact, all songs except for Norrsken sound generic. I am not saying the songs and artists are bad, that’s far from me. ESC is a great event and it so nice to have outstanding entries.
Who cares, Roko is the winner .
ESC2019 – male body competition 😉
ICELAND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂
Iceland !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂
Who made these obviously rigged odds? Why is Serbia not in first place? They only rank us so low because they hate Serbia. Truth. Fact is we are going to win in May. Nevena will win this. Sergey, Duncan and all the others just have no chance against her. Just so you know.
Serbia have a very lovely song I really like it, and it really gives me 2007 and 2008 vibes which was Serbia’s peak at the contest, plus 2012 as well. don’t worry the UK is down there as well so your not alone, good luck to Serbia from the UK.
Thank you kindly
Kobi from Israel is very very understand, he is better than all these three….on Sunday everyone will know why
not gonna happen, so dont even try
Trust me..you need to wait for Sunday..it’s kobi not another generic singer
You know after last year I’m really surprised if the ethnic ballad that Israel are going for is going to be received well considering Portugal doing another ballad last year and came last. So I really hope Israel have a good song which is received and scored well. Good luck to Israel.
to anyone saying odds don’t matter, they do. The top 5 on the final night is usually in the top 10 in the odds, including the winner
Do these odds really matter though, the year Portugal won they weren’t even in the top 10 at the beginning, and Bulgaria and France were very high up and even surprisingly the Uk did very well in the odds , then Portugal won afterwards. when Israel won and Cyprus came 2nd Cyprus never truly were the favourites and noticed until the dress rehearsals when the moved up in the odds. So until we hear every countries songs, this don’t really matter that much.
We know..but let us have this. We haven’t seen our country do this good in the early odds for like..uh..ever.
That picture tho! Three handsome men..
Where? I don’t see any handsome men there.
Whatever happend to Romania, though?! They used to be in 4th place and now they’re on 28th and going down?! Any idea?! Oh, wait…
As we speak is on 29th and I can vouch it will go down cos’ just below sits North Macedonia with a beautiful ballad, great voice, emotional message, going up! Do you, William and Deban feel vindicated?! Are you proud of yourselves crushing Romania like that? Or just a little bored? Just asking!
Haven’t we learned from past years? These are just odds people. They dont tell us who’s gonna win at this point. We all have to wait till May to see wich countries have come up with something amazing on stage. I still believe in Belgium 🙂 Russia? I dont know. I believe they will come up with something amazing, even better than the Netherlands.
whh the delusion…..holland won’t see the victory with a telescope. it might end up like germany last year at best, but that sleepin has flop fan favorite written over it
You coud be right though. There is always a fanfav that flops. Why not Netherlands? Or…….Cyprus lol
Might end up like Germany..will be a flop.. You consider a 4th place a flop?
4th place would be a very decent result for the netherlands, the best since 2014, don’t think you will hear dutchies complain…
We will complain if hatari snatches the trophy from us after already having to deal with conchita in 2014 though xD
Why people put so much stock in the odds I will never know.
Last year before the final Ireland was tipped to land in the top 3 for example and it could not have been more wrong.
Best thing to do is wait for the actual semi-finals and judging then :/
There’s always a fascination for odds, but is it really that important at this point?
Last year before the rehearsals, in the odds : Bulgaria 2nd, France 3rd, Cyprus 18th, Germany 22nd…!
And God said .and the last will be the first
Russia,The Netherlands,Iceland,France are overrated. Slovenia,Lithuania,Albania underrated.
Australia is underrated, we know that EBU baby will push hard with juries. This year song is better than last year, and last year they got 99 points in final, 90 from juries plus 9 from televote.
There is no use looking at odds this early on. Sweden and Russia are both in top 3 when it comes to odds yet they haven’t even chosen/released their songs. Wait until the rehearsals and semi-finals because it’s not until then that the odds will be more reliable.
Netherlands overrated af, radio friendly randomness nowhere near Salvador Sobral for the win. His falsetto is annoying and does he even have stage presence, we only saw his naked as s in the water.
Italy >>>>>>>> Netherlands
Go on, dislike my comment.
I agree. It’s the music video that makes the song better than it is. I find it a little boring. I think this will go down in May, but we’ll see..
Dutch song is currently smashing in sales in Netherlands.
It’s clearly not only that video.
I haven’t watched the video, only listened to the song. It made me say wow and that doesn’t happen very often, unfortunately. I am not an authority in music, I’m just a normal person with an eclectic musical taste.
Sorry, I respectfully disagree with you (although I think Italy’s entry is definitely top 3!). Duncan is actually very artistic and I think the staging will be exceptional and mind blowing (just like the Common Linnets in 2014). Also, Salvador is jazz and Duncan gives me indie vibes. Not sure why those two are being compared… I think the simple, naked video is a strategy. You don’t want the video to overpower the live performance. I mean just look at the Czech Republic last year. His performance was great, but a direct copy of the music video and he placed… Read more »
It’s comparison based on who were last winner, usually winner had something unique, never seen before, like Sobral, Netta, Conchita, Mans etc.
Netherlands has nice song, it will be jury friendly and it will have plenty of televote votes to place high (depends on the staging and charisma of the singer also), but I don’t think it will win televote either, that’s not enough for the win.
I personally am obsessed with it, but yeah, I don’t think it’s gonna win the televote.
I absolutely love some brutal honesty!! As much as I love the Netherlands song, I am afraid I agree with you on some points… yes, the last winners have all been the ones that had something unique. Is duncan’s song unique? I absolutely love it, but I am reserved to give a yes for an answer. I love the genre, but I also have the feeling it is a song I have heard before on the radio or some movie, in terms of emotions and feelings I get from it… i think it will place high, but I am not… Read more »
Vote for Conan Osíris geom Portugal, he is really unique!
u spoke the truth, that d*tch song is just some faux-deep falsetto nightmare with nothin remarkable bout it, eurofans chose the most random thing to cream themselves over
I disagree, the song is pretty nice and I like his voice (still have to hear it love though), but I agree that Italy > the Netherlands
“Go on, dislike my comment”:
Your wish is my command!
Finally, someone who understands how bad Arcade is.
Switzerland is bringing their A-game this year. Winner or no winner, a top spot in the final is well deserved.
Duncan for the win! His song is a contemporary masterpiece. I like Sergey as a performer (he is so fun to watch!), but I wasn’t a big fan of his song in 2016. I think his 2019 song will be once again mainstream, predictable and poorly written.
Duncan is just trying to imitate Sam Smith. Nothing more.
Sergey better have something epic served in order to have that great of a lead. But can be top himself?
I bet he fantasizes about that daily 😉
In semi 1 i predict: Cyprus,Hungary,Serbia,Slovenia, Australia,Belgium,Greece,Iceland for the final right know.
2 places left. I want Montenegro to take one.
1 Place left. I want San marino
Poland can still take one. If Iceland are in i dont think Portugal are.
NO for Georgia,Belarus,Estonia,Finland maybe for Czech Republic
indeed the netherlands’ song is so beautiful
Anyone remembers DJ Bobo being predicted winner in 2007? Yeah.
I don’t get the hype for Netherlands… Go on dislike my comment Dutch people.
Dont worry trolls will be trolls
The only trustworthy betting odds is the time after the rehearsals or after semi-finals. It means nothing now.
Netta was top of the betting odds from the second her video got released. Actually after rehearsals is when she dropped a little. So betting odds certainly can be an interesting indicator even now and should not be completely ignored.
One time success of predicting the winner before the rehearsal means nothing. I only care about what will happen in May.
weird to put odds on something you actually don’t know. the system is a big….meh.
So we finally have our first article on betting odds from money-hungry bookkeepers. And to think we could finally have a year without them.
I’m sure Sergey will edge Duncan. People will always prefer big dramatic ballads than pared back ones.
That’s not true. Last year Netta was first place in bookmakers. And her song is very far from being a dramatic ballad
What makes you say Sergey will go for a dramatic ballad? He’s far more likely to go up tempo again.
It is known it’s gonna be a ballad…
Im not gonna deny that these boys are slaying it with their songs. However, it is important to note that these are the polished performances and music videos. That is part of the hype. During rehearsals will be when to take the betting odds seriously, particularly around internally selected songs. Itll seperate the boys from the men and the girls from the women so to speak.
Isn’t it obvious that odds bias it towards hot males? I’m not sold.
I mean, the hot males are serving tho (except for Russia so far)… Are the bookies supposed to hype up some random songs just to not appear sexist?
Yeah, they’re serving. It ain’t like other finalists aren’t also serving great content, though I do know people would invest their money on the boys since they’re the safest bets possible. It’s obvious that people wanna win betting moneys.
To be fair, Tamta is still really high in the odds and before her withdrawal, so was MARUV.
Also, prepare for Armenia to slay. 😉
Last year Israel was their winner. And the last time I saw Netta she wasn’t a “hot male”…so … And Sweden’s entry is basically Hannah Ferm featuring LIAMOO so she’s the main singer of that song. Maruv would be Top 3 as well right now. Tamta is also very high in the odds… So I don’t see the point.
Women dominate Eurovision so seeing men on top is a relief.
Does this year have a front runner yet, or is it still wide open?
It’s wide open, as wide as CupcakKe’s clam.
I’d say we wait until all the songs are released.
Boys are slaying this year.
So hyped for Duncan! In the meanwhile, I’ve never seen a more underrated country than Albania (from the bookies). Even if they have a great singer, even when the song is also great, even if they’ve qualified, even if they were almost in the top 10 the previous year, they’re always, always near the bottom, next to Croatia 😛 And no sign that they could go up in the near future
…which makes it the ideal time to put money on it if you think they will win.
I know right! Even with Eugent, who had a voice out of this world, they ignored him completely until the end.
It’s interesting to me how open this year is. No clear front runner or runaway favourite has emerged yet. There’s no Euphoria or Only Teardrops.
Right now I feel like Portugal, Iceland, Italy, and Netherlands would be contenders, but they all seem to be entries that are either really liked or really disliked.
I’d like to know if anyone does think there’s a clear front runner?
It wouldn’t surprise me if Sweden wins on 18 May, perhaps by placing 2nd with both the juries and the televote.
The betting evidence would seem to suggest that there is one clear front runner: Russia. But that has nothing to do with the song, and everything to do with the singer.
Portugal? lol, they will barely qualify.
The UK at 28th with the bookies, liberty! Its one of the stronger songs of the year, sung well by a competent singer and sounds like something you’ll hear on Spotify
So why do people have to hate on the UK, it is one of their stronger entries and this will do very well for the UK in Tel Aviv Top 10 or at least Top 13 anything less will be a absolute farce.
“One of their stronger entries” is not strong enough. Nobody votes for a “stronger” song, we vote for the best ones.
One of the problems with the UK is that they don’t need to qualify from the semi finals. Most years, they have a song ranked (overall) in the 35-43 range but still come 25th or 26th in the final.
This year, they genuinely have a top 30 song but will still probably come in the bottom five in the grand final. Not fair for Michael but just the way it is.
I agree. Don’t have a clue why they have betting odds? It’s not like people are placing the bets on ESC. I really don’t get it.
Polls arent ranking. It’s just chances to win. And UK has a very low chance to win .
UK will end up bottom 5 as usual this year, its really not that strong of a song
Who would ever listen to that dated Lundvik b song on Spotify? One of the weakest songs this year more like
This year is a sausage party lol ! so many solo male artists , i’m for Luca or Duncan :))
I really like the Dutch entry but at this point the odds are but unreliable…I mean 2 countries in the top 5 haven’t even presented the songs XD. I’m still waiting for what Will happen after, it all could be just the spur of the moment… this time last year The Netherlands and Belgium were top 5 with the odds and we all know how it turned out eventually.
Well, Sweden’s probably gonna fall once they choose their song. Sorry but nothing at melfest this year is top 5 material. As for Russia, I don’t think it’ll win, but whatever sergey sends out will still probably do well.
As for the dutch entry, …i’m really curious as to how he’ll manage to stage and perform this without the stage looking empty.
Totally agree about Sweden and Russia. In my opinion the top 10 songs are very close to each other so only the final week Will reveal who can meet the expactations. As of now the odds look very voluble
If we choose John Lundvik we are happy to be in the odds at 5. We dont always feel we are winning you know. With John i hope top 5 🙂
If John Lundvik gets picked I can totally see a Swedish win. The song is great!
To be Fair people has said Sweden don’t have top 5 material since we elected Frans. Statistics suggest the opposite