Another day of rehearsals. Another day of upheavals in the Eurovision odds.

And today’s major winner is Bilal Hassani from France.

Following an acclaimed first rehearsal France has broken into the top ten of the odds.* The “Roi” hitmaker is in the blue at a spread of bookmakers which means his odds to win are shortening.

RedZone has France as low as 15/1.

Another country on the move is Australia. Kate Miller-Heidke’s rehearsal performances are moving the market. She’s now also inside the Top Ten, with odds as low as 16/1 at BetFair.

Rehearsal days have winners and they have casualties.

And unfortunately for Italy, Mahmood did not fair well from today’s rehearsals.

He’s now dropped out of the top three and is in the red at most bookmakers. That means his odds to win are drifting.

In fact Mahmood’s odds have gone as high as 11/1 SkyBet. This is likely a reaction to vocal and stage problems which received a mixed reaction in the press center.

Italy drifting in Eurovision 2019 odds to win

It is a bad day for Italy, but a good day for Sweden. Italy’s setback means Sweden is now inside the top three.

John Lundvik performed “Too Late For Love” in his second rehearsal and bookmakers have lapped it up. Sweden is in the blue across the board and as low as 5/1 at several major bookmakers.

The Netherlands and Russia continue to lead the market but neither has reversed the hit they took following their first rehearsals.

They remain in the red at many bookmakers and will hope to overturn that trend in their second rehearsals tomorrow.

Do you think the odds predict a winner? Is France on course to take the crown? Let us know in the comments below! 

GET MORE EUROVISION 2019 ODDS NEWS HERE

Photo Credit: EBU

*Accurate Israeli time 21:52

Full odds are available on Oddschecker

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Melody
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Melody

Europe voted Conchita once, won’t vote a Conchita wannabe again. At least Conchita could really sing! Sorry not Sorry, Bilal.

Polegend Godgarina
Guest

i have to laugh

Denis
Guest
Denis

I see three likely outcomes here: Sweden claiming it’s 7th victory, Netherlands winning for the 5th time or someone unexpected swoops in.
All three likely scenarios. Question is what is more likely?

Polegend Godgarina
Guest

…and unexpected country winning. i don’t see sweden pleasing the public enough (good but nothing special), and the netherlands don’t seem to stand out either. we’ll have an interesting vote !

Kissmyass
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Kissmyass

Odd interpretation of the facts. #FakeNews. Trump would have a field day with your delusions

Nikola
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Nikola

Pure emotion and focus from North Macedonia’s Tamara

Étoile
Guest
Étoile

The odds means nothing, at least for me. I still think that my country (France may not end in the bottom). Even if I don’t like the song at all, I can say our HoD work a lot of the staging. It can helps. For Italy, I need the second rehearsals. I hope it’s not screwed for him but I don’t like many things of his staging. I gave my 2 cents of the staging of the big 5 and Israel in the poll article. For Sweden, for me it was always a contender.

Sophie
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Sophie

Prefer to much more Italy than France! Bilal won’t win for sure… he’s arrogant and the song has nothing.
I am from France and I don’t see anything in our song for fair victory

Whisker
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Whisker

He doesn’t come across as arrogant in the interviews I watched.

bella
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bella

it’s because he’s not 😉

Lucio
Guest
Lucio

Sorry but he is becoming a strong contender for the victory. Not the best song, not the best singer BUT certainly one of the best show performer and genius for doing the buzz (fat and deaf girls. It’s pathetic on a side but also genius on the other side since it will work for sure. Same trick works every N years). But about arrogance I agree, also there is so sharpness in this guy (cf Youtube videos). He built its public character around this, his public goldmine. See This is the first time I see this kind of bad comment… Read more »

Helene
Guest
Helene

About the singer: You’re certainly right. Too marketing.
But what is the more pathetic: a guy crying, complaining in front of a webcam, or those watching him ?
That could be a good debate.

But it is a song contest and it’s a real potential winner now.
Hype is growing more and more. At the best time.
Very good strategy from France.

Anna
Guest
Anna

contender ??????
ofcourse not
this year….bookies create ”fake news-fake winners”…Guess why !

FranceEsc2018…can’t compare to FranceEsc2019. So I estimate 15th to 20th place…and gains for books !

Ro Smart
Guest
Ro Smart

Italy, France and Azerbaijan are the best for me

Ro Smart
Guest
Ro Smart

Next week Mahmood will feel better and he’ll win ????????????? Go Mahmood

KLONN
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KLONN

HOW SWEDEN IS #3??!?! WHATS WRONG WITH ESC

Helene
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Helene

Actually number 2. But you need not to worry. Sweden will not win.

Fast Food Music Lover
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Fast Food Music Lover

Italy 2020 is cancelled!

Ro Smart
Guest
Ro Smart

Don’t be sure, Italy will surprise you…

Melody
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Melody

It’s ok. Rai is not ready to do Eurovision.

Peter KDVF
Guest
Peter KDVF

It seems that the fifth victory for Netherlands (or maybe Swedish equalised Ireland’s seven-victories record) is the most likely situation. But France that night did a great job, especially for that powerful revamped instrumental music and his performance! He deserved top 10 like Amir in 2016! Good luck for every contestants!

PP77
Guest
PP77

Malta is overrated ( TOP 5 with juries,out of TOP 12 with televote).
I think fight for win between Sweden,Russia,Azerbaijan ,The Netherlands.
TOP 5 with juries NET,SWE,AZE,MAL,ISR
Dark horse Australia,France

Steve
Guest
Steve

Overrated? It’s different, current and fresh! Top 5 for me!

I’d say wait till you see the performance on TV!

Ioa Ioa
Guest
Ioa Ioa

Duncan please win and save us by this atrocity.

Purple Mask
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Purple Mask

This is turning into a very interesting and exciting ESC year, in which anything could happen.

Whisker
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Whisker

I AGREE WITH YOU.

Kirby
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Kirby

What if an unexpected dark horse appears out of nowhere? Picture North Macedonia or something…

Starmine45
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Starmine45

I can’t wait to see MALTA’s performance tomorrow!

LjupcoMKD
Guest
LjupcoMKD

Current standings in the odds:
1. Netherlands
2. Sweden
3. Russia
4. Azerbaijan
5. Italy
6. Malta
7. Switzerland
8. France
9. Australia
10. Iceland

However, greatest surprise for me is the fact that my country, North Macedonia, is currently ranked 13th in the odds. I have never been more exited about Eurovision before.

David F
Guest
David F

That’s lovely to read! Tamara’s doing a great job for North Macedonia and I’m definitely wishing you well for the Eurovision SF and your deserved place in the GF on 18 May 🙂

Kirby
Guest
Kirby

I have a strange feeling about North Macedonia…

Say NONONO
Guest
Say NONONO

France is pathetic. Trying to bring Conchita and Netta at once on stage.

Conchitaah
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Conchitaah

Why so much hate towards the Greek entry, in the odds?

DPG
Guest
DPG

My prediction is that it’ll finish in the top 5 at jury voting and top 10 at televoting. It doesn’t deserve 12 place!!!

Conchitaah
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Conchitaah

I agree with you DPG.

SAARA’S SOLDIER
Guest
SAARA’S SOLDIER

haha.

Claes Dahl
Guest
Claes Dahl

Odds is not hate, its what oddsmaker think people will vote on, but mostly how much money are betted on a song/country….the more money put on a song, the lower odds it get…so if u put a lot of money on Greece then it might get lower odds!

Melody
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Melody

Cause Greece ia overrated bt y’all!

IVANOV
Guest
IVANOV

I’m getting it now when France was speaking of world premiere. Yes, a fat ballerina is a world premiere. Who would pay to go a ballet to see this atrocity. And who are the fools betting on this knowing this can’t compete against the classy art Sergey is showing.

julien
Guest
julien

Netta, Dana and Conchita are on the same staging… 😀

Bilal Hassani is not an excellent singer, song is quite bland IMHO and not a so good guy as french press want to convince us in France.

But this guy is a real show man. A Buzz Master. No doubt.
Dark Horse for sure

Elina
Guest
Elina

This eurovision is going to be very interesting ! Top 12 right now have equal possibilities to win in my point of view . Netherlands should have had more but their staging is not as expected as also Italy . Cyprus and Switzerland failed a bit with their vocals , Michela , Azerbaijan , Australia and France rised from their performances and still Greece remain as a dark horse that has the full package . Obviously, Iceland has a wide fun club and many people are going to vote for them . Finally Sweden according to current situation can win… Read more »

T.J.
Guest
T.J.

No one believed me a couple of weeks ago, when I said that Sweden is in for the win. Seems to me that I could be right after all.

Bob
Guest
Bob

Yes, Sweden is winning this. You can always count on the Swedes to bring stellar staging. And this year, the song is decent too. Winning.

Milla
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Milla

Sweden is the only one that gives me goosebumps..

Nicolas
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Nicolas

There must be some air flow coming from a window in your house.

Davve
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Davve

Me too.. amazing

DPG
Guest
DPG

Am I the only one wondering why Greece fell on the odds? Both song and performance are outstanding!!!!

Henrikh Mugosa
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Henrikh Mugosa

Yes, you are.

Bob
Guest
Bob

It looks very theatrical and messy on stage. The jury will appreciate it because the song is great, but the televoters will likely prefer other songs. It’s a shame, because I think Katerine Duska is amazing!

Ioa Ioa
Guest
Ioa Ioa

Greece doesnt getting low because of disappointes . Just some ither countries are having sudden rise, 2 to be exact. France (ew) and Azerbaijan.

Whisker
Guest
Whisker

dis-a-POINT-(s). Nice unintentional pun.

Briekimchi
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Briekimchi

The 2nd rehearsal clip itself was a little underwhelming. Which is strange considering the first one was so promising.

Helene
Guest
Helene

I don’t like the song that much and when I looked at tha clip the staging was not as good as expected. A little bit stiff and lack of charisma. I hope it will be better on the actual night.

Lacrymea
Guest
Lacrymea

I don’t understand the French song this year. Is that a good song by any means? Oh well… Apparently, it doesn’t matter anymore.

Henrikh Mugosa
Guest
Henrikh Mugosa

France could very well be a surprise winner. Roi isn’t much of a song, but they have the complete package.

Kuhkatz
Guest
Kuhkatz

France as a surprise winner?
Even though he did well today that is not going to happen, Roi as a song is just too weak.

Nicolas
Guest
Nicolas

Now I’m starting for the first time preferring the Netherlands to win.

julien
Guest
julien

I don’t really like him and its arrogance, and the song alone is not the best but I have to be honest:
Bilal is a real buzz maker.
Surprised by the staging and disappointed because he is still trying to check all the boxes (this guy is too strategic).

But it may work well for both jury and televote.

uj33
Guest
uj33

But this is exactly what France needs : strategic show man. France probably wants Patricia Kaas and Madame Monsieur dressed in black, on a black background, singing and crying : Merci Mercy, Merci Mercy, Merci Mercy until they drop.

Jake
Guest
Jake

Up till yesterday, Michela was the only female in the top 10. However, she remains the only female in top 8! Rooting for her and Malta this year!!

Bob
Guest
Bob

Malta could be a surprise winner! They just have to nail it live. The studio version of the song is good enough to win!

Catriona Colville
Guest
Catriona Colville

In most markets. Kate has overtaken Hatari into the top 8. I’d much rather her win than Michaela.

Dany
Guest
Dany

i like France and Bilal,but Mamhood can still return up on the odds. Hope never dies.

Henrikh Mugosa
Guest
Henrikh Mugosa

Mark my words! Italy won’t will even if Mahmood gives a flawless performance when it matters. For reasons that have nothing to do with the staging, the song or the performance.

GaryH
Guest
GaryH

If Italy couldn’t win with the masterpiece from 2018 or with succesful and talented Il Volo, there is just no way they are going to win with Soldi, even though the song is great. The juries have a dislike of Italian music, unfortunately. I honestly think it would be better for Italy to not win the contest because then they would have to host this circus. (Don’t get me wrong, I love Esc but it is just a slapstick version of Sanremo)

Kosey
Guest
Kosey

Does anyone else think the Netherlands are still really short odds? Don’t get me wrong, it is a nice song, and you could make an argument for it being the best song, but is it so much better than the others? Personally I think it is a much more open race, but the bookies seldom get it wrong – so does anyone know why it is so far in front of everyone else?

Kris
Guest
Kris

I still don’t get it actually
To my ears NLs sits in a bunch of really strong songs and not miles ahead in any way

But certain factors put pressure on people to like a song , like certain reviews , money , betting odds , so maybe the hype train is what has caused NLs to be so short further.

Milla
Guest
Milla

Modern, simple and evokes emotions? It’s not a favourite of mine but I think that is one of the reasons. And Duncan sells it pretty well on stage. Also hype can really make something sound and look a alot better than it really is. People get brain-washed with statistics and so on. I think something is missing with the performance though once in ESC. (Sweden on the other hand probobly is one of the countries where the performance itself is better than the Netherlands. So I can’t see a secure win.)

Bob
Guest
Bob

Netherlands and Russia and Sweden are safe bets because they are commercial songs that will appeal to lots of people. They are also performed by solid singers. People bet on what’s safe. In my opinion, Iceland is far more likely to win the televote than the Netherlands – but it’s much more risky to place a bet on such a divisive entry.

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

Bookies lose much more money when the favourites win. As a result, they usually keep the favourite odds almost artificially lower. Is the Netherlands the best song this year? Possibly. Is it twice as good as everything else? Definitely not. But remember, it’s about money, not about artistic assessment of the songs. 😉

Davve
Guest
Davve

Sweden is top2 now were John belong! Goooo Sweden

Baloonbleu
Guest
Baloonbleu

To be honest Sweden was third before the Italian rehearsal

Bob
Guest
Bob

I can confirm this, as I checked the odds before the big five began rehearsing. The bump Sweden gained today was due to their amazing second rehearsal, not neccesarily due to Italy performing poorly.

EZz
Guest
EZz

I mean isn’t Mahmood ill, so no wonder his voice might not be right, and he probably fell in the odds, but I’m sorry as much as France has a great singer, who performs well, I just don’t feel France this year compared to last year, and especially 2016. He may do well, but I don’t know he doesn’t wow me like the other French acts. but good luck to him.

aroncido
Guest
aroncido

Mahmood’s voice is one thing, but the main criticism (at least from the livestream people) was that the staging is messy and sometimes cheesy. Being healthy will not help that. Let’s hope further changes will.

Whisker
Guest
Whisker

It was his first rehearsal, messiness was there for all acts except for Sweden maybe.

Baloonbleu
Guest
Baloonbleu

He had his toour around Italy these days, you can find videos on Youtube, where he was singing at top the whole album + two singles. Now he is afraid to sing Soldi on stage? Please.

La Signora
Guest
La Signora

Last week I went to his Italian tour in Naples and his vocals were very good. I’ve uploaded some videos, he also sang (or sung?) an arabic song. If you want to check my channel is “Marquise de Tassony”. It’s a little tricky to share links here in the comments, if someone knows the name of that song please tell me 🙂