Last night, the second semi-final of Eurovision 2019 took place and the ten qualifiers drew halves for the final. Producers then went to work preparing the running order of the grand final. We are now going to analyse the draw and see what it might mean for your favourites.
Since 2013, the running order has been determined by producers. The intent is to put together the best show possible. This is done by providing a degree of variation in genre and feel, rather than, for instance, giving us six ballads in a row. The running order also takes staging requirements into consideration, ensuring that large props won’t be crowding the off-stage area all at once, nor will we get a glut of performances all with the same colour lighting.
Bearing all of this in mind, let’s take a look at what the draw means. We are primarily going to focus on the contest from 2013 onwards, as the running order was determined completely randomly before this.
First half
Malta will open the show with Michela’s “Chameleon”. While nobody has won the contest from this position in recent years, it is certainly possible to achieve a good result. Laura Tesoro of Belgium finished 10th in 2016 and Mariya Yaremchuk of Ukraine finished 6th in 2014 after opening the show.
Second in the running order is generally considered the “death slot”. Nobody has ever won the contest singing second in the final. Since 2013, Teo of Belarus achieved the best result from this position, placing 16th in 2014. He is also the only act to make the Top 20 from this spot since 2013. As such, the signs are not looking good for Jonida Maliqi of Albania.
Sergey Lazarev of Russia was considered a big favourite coming into the contest. He will sing fifth, which may be considered too early for a winner. The last person to win from this early in the piece was Turkey’s Sertab Erener in 2003 who sang fourth. However, Cesár Sampson won the jury vote from this position last year and finished 3rd overall. Going further back, Armenia’s Sirusho finished 4th from the same spot in the running order in 2008 and received the most douze points that year. Combined with the fact that Russia is surrounded by acts that are not predicted by bookies to contend may indicate that Russia’s draw is not as bad as it appears on the surface.
John Lundvik of Sweden is one of the favourites to win, currently sitting third in the odds. He will sing 9th, situated between two slower songs in North Macedonia and Slovenia, allowing him to shine. This is a solid draw for Sweden, singing one position earlier than their win in 2015. The draw suggests Sweden did rather well in the semi-final. However, if John won, it would be the earliest a winner has performed since the rule change.
Cyprus will sing 11th — the same position as Austria in 2014 and Portugal in 2017 for their wins. The Netherlands will go 12th in what is undeniably a very favourable draw for the competition favourite. While nobody has won from 12th in the 2000s, a late first half draw is prime position to strike for the title. Australia’s Guy Sebastian most recently managed a Top 5 finish from this spot in the running order in 2015.
Greece sing 13th, closing out the first half. On the surface, this may appear to be a great draw. After all, Dami Im won the jury vote and came 2nd from this spot in 2016. Loïc Nottet came 4th and Sanna Nielsen came 3rd from the same spot in 2015 and 2014 respectively. However, they are singing between the favourite and the host country, which may make this draw a little tougher for Greece.
Second half
Iceland will sing 17th, the same position as Loreen, Marija Serifovic and Lordi. Since the rule change, Emmelie de Forest sang 18th, which would suggest Hatari’s draw is generally positive. There are also no heavyweights within earshot of Iceland according to the bookies.
A run of strong songs follows with Azerbaijan, France and Italy singing 20th to 22nd. All three countries are in the Top 10 to win with bookmakers and have great spots in the running order. Alexander Rybak won from 20th, Jamala from 21st and Lena and Netta both won from 22nd.
The bookies’ second favourite Australia has also been given prime real estate at 25th. Nobody has won from quite so late in recent years but the runner-up has sang 25th in both of the last two years. This indicates Australia did well in — and possibly won — their semi-final, much like Bulgaria’s Kristian Kostov in 2017. Going back to 2008, Dima Bilan sang second last in his victory for Russia. Switzerland are on right before Australia and may benefit from the contrast of singing between Serbia and Australia.
Spain will close the show in what is also a favourable draw. Italy managed a Top 5 finish last year from the same spot and Armenia and Italy have both managed Top 10 finishes in recent years from that position with Iveta Mukuchyan and Il Volo respectively. In Il Volo’s case, they won the televote after singing last.
What do you think of the running order? Who will benefit from it and who will be hindered by it? Let us know in the comments below.
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-eurovision-drop-the-bbc-from-picking-the-uk-entry-for-2020/share_for_starters?just_created=true
Please look at this petition, and if you could maybe sign, that would be much appreciated thank you.
Come on
The Netherlands
Switzerland
Cyprus
Sweden
Europe vote for the UK ahaha well I gave it a shot.
I think the running order is absolutely fine, different genres between each other will keep the audience captivated.
It’s sad to see this once former great site turn into a place where its ok,encouraged even, to bash and hate countries like Sweden. And were just expected to take it. Last year you all couldnt hide your excitement over Sweden getting 21 televotes, for all we know that might happen again. Sad really that a contest which is about celebrating music and finding new people who share the shame, has turned into who can hate this country the most. Great job moderators, I know I wont return
We do not hate Sweden – we do not like the fact that they continue to receive scores that they do not necessarily deserve (this is subjective, but I feel that Sweden sends very well polished but inoffensive pop songs that aren’t bad, but not necessarily worthy of the scores they receive). We do not like that several Swedes have introduced several changes to the contest that have resulted in the potential for favouritism and bias. Nothing to do with Sweden as a country, moreso we do not like the products of their success, which are two different things. If… Read more »
My suggestion is to take away the possibilty to downvote.
It’s not sweden but producer bashing. As you write it’s about finding New people. Its about fairness and sportmansship.
Well Pierre and Kredentials you are just proving his point. Unjustice – not. More like well deserved hard working loving the competition. A lot of dancers, musicians, producers, staging directors and so forth who take it seriously. I agree Swden will not get good points this year.
I’m sure they are hardworking and love the contest. But it would be refreshing to have a new format with fresh blood and less bias. I don’t see this as unjustice. And again its not about sweden its about the production. I wish you well in the contest 🙂
Like not the others are not produced? All Eurovision is production. Swedish production has only been more succesful the last ten years. But it might change. Nothing is forever. This year Luca Hänni, Cyphrus and Malta are Swedish productions. Last year Eleni Foureira so much loved by the fans.
Please don’t return. And to paraphrase your comment, it’s sad a contest which is about celebrating music turning into a European melodifestivalen where Sweden is the juries baby no matter what they send.
You and Pierre and others in the leading anti Sweden maffia just proved my point. You two make every post about how much you hate Sweden, the entries and how you not getting votes is Swedens fault . We still remember how joyous you were that Sweden got 21 points last year, you were quick to point that out on everything you posted . At least we don’t go around wishing for other countries to flop.seeing your attitude I wish we would..
Did you listen the clapping in the arena when Sweden got 21 points last year? It’s me and more than 20000 people who don’t support the Swedish mafia of the contest 😉
ESC1234 and your likes talk about sportsmanship and being fair.. Sorry to say but bashing others who are trying their best is really not in the spirit of Eurovision.
Trying the best to make the contest a European melfest. Will they introduce Andra chancen rounds?
I am not wanting Eurovision to become melfest. I really dont understand your insinuations. Who are you refering to? I dont like the melfest. I like Eurovision.,I am only pointing out the fact that for some reason many countried want to use Swedish productions. It is their choice – not something someone is imposing on them. Many of these productions have had success and then everybody is happy – like Eleni Foureira or the Bulgarian entries . It is a free world.
TELEVOTING top10
1. Australia
2. Italy
3. Netherlands
4. Switzerland
5. Russia
6. Iceland
7. Norway
8. Cyprus
9. Azerbaijan
10. Sweden
JURIES top10
1. Netherlands
2. Sweden
3. Australia
4. Azerbaijan
5. Russia
6. Italy
7. France
8. Switzerland
9.Malta
10. North Macedonia
Europe vote for Malta they deserve it this year..
hahahahah
A pause for thought for future contests, I think the EBU should have a 42nd televoting score to add to the climax of the voting (not this year). Everyone outside Europe watching. (The rest of the world) This way everyone can directly vote instead of asking friends and family to vote on behalf of me. Maybe an app or online vote. There are 1000’s if not millions of European expats including myself around the globe and non participant supporters who stay up late (or get up early) to watch. Give them a little bit of a voice to share in… Read more »
Northern Macedonia. Very nice song, good words. The singer is good. A nice show, music is well supplemented with pictures and so filled scene. I’d give her a high place.
Im sad about Sweden. Spending money and loving ESC and then when we come to ESC we get the lowest score in the telvotes. NOT because people dont love the song, just because people dont like that Sweden are sending great songs and that countrys ask Björkmna for help because he has a lot of ESC experience. Thats sad to hate John Lundvik because of that.
Well, last year’s song was not especially good but this year song is great. If they score low on the televote then you have a point…
Who will the UK televote for now that Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria etc are not in the grand final? Will an actual fan favourite get 12 points since there won’t be an Eastern European diaspora vote. I hope so but I really think it’s going to be Greece or Cyprus similar to the 2000s.
Czechia/Malta/Australia/Iceland/Denmark?
It will be AUS. There has been so much push for her (no surprise) everywhere in the media. It’s her pic the first pic you see when they talk about ESC.
Malta, holland, switzerland, australia, norway, iceland, spain
I just want to say how impressed I am by Kate’s social media presence, she must read every tweet someone tags her in and replies and likes to the fans, how she has time I do not know, but it’s genuinely lovely.
Netherland. The song has beautiful sounds, but boring song, song for going to sleep. No show, for Eurovision did not give anything interesting. I’d give him 4-6th place. Sweden. There are many such songs. Similar songs are sung in American churches. The show is simple. The advantage is that the song performs well. 7-12th place. Russia. Song is beautiful but not a winner. Lazarev is a good song. There are shows, but it is not interesting because other singers have already used it. 2-4th place. Cyprus. Tamta is not Foureira, though a song like Foureira’s song. If this song was… Read more »
Of course… totally disagree
Correction – “Lazarev is a good singer”.
1-3 by the juries
10-13 by the televoters
Has sweden ever gotten a bad pole position since they took over eurovision?
Arent you tired of this topic? its EBU that own it. It was Jon Ola Sand and the Israeli producer to who did the running order to. So blame Norway and Israel to then.
Yes lets pretend that Ola melzig and Bjorkman are not in charge so we won’t hurt Rasmus
Fake news alert. Bjorkman does the running order and there is even a video about that. Scam.
This analysis is a bit annoying and biased if you ask me, cuz almost every uptempo song is declared being in a good spot, if it is put between two slow songs. Sweden and Cyprus are cases in point. Macedonia is a strong vocal and Slovenia is an atmospheric mood song that will stand out a lot for those viewers who do not look for props and fire and shaking hips. Especially this is true for Slovenia. Do you really think that Sweden and Cyprus will automatically outshine Macedonia and Slovenia (and after Cyprus, Netherlands is next up)? I think… Read more »
AUSTRALIA-))))
Yes pleeeeeeeaaaasssseee! C’mon KMH
could some one please vote uk
No, i’m sorry it is one of the worst tonight, Bottom 5.
Don’t underestimate people’s inteligence… if they like a song, they will vote for it, regardless of the running order.
wiwibloggs loves holland.
Not a day passes when the Dutchman’s face is not well visible on the site despite dozens of artists competing.
Thank you
The bias of it all!
I didn’t see Waylon’s face being used as a picture for all of their articles last year? I don’t recall seeing O’G3NE all the time either.
Someone has to be the favourite and it happens to be Duncan. That’s why they use him. Simple.
I agree with this criticism. There is a lot of advertising of certain songs and entries. I wouldn’t mind it, but since Wiwibloggs established itself as one of the most influental ESC bloggs, this becomes problematic at that point, when they try to present their reporting as unbiased, although it is actually still biased in favor of some bookies favorites or the crew’s personal favorites. Since yesterday, it seems that according to Wiwibloggs there are no other songs left in competition than Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Sweden (and perhaps France). All the rest is as filler songs that don’t stand a… Read more »
This is a fan page. Wiwwibloggs can write about Netherlands EVERYDAY if they want. This is only a fan page
Sweden is, as usual, overrated.
Not this year
I hope Greece enters the top10 (hopefully they will take advantage of their slot (more audience) than being just overshadowed by Duncan
i watched the jury show and greece don’t get overshadowed at all! It all flows very nice!
Top3 for sure!
In ye olden days, the contest has had as few as 12 songs. Instead of counting the position in the running order, it’s interesting and more reliable to consider how far from the end, songs have been performed. A later draw is all about ‘freshness in the mind’ after all. In this case we see, going back to 1956, that songs have never won singing from 17th last, nor 20th, 21st, 22nd, 24th, 25th, 26th or 27th from the end. Any song placed before the first advert break is truly given a kiss of death by producers. For this reason… Read more »
Wiwibloggs the day you was born you have have nasty people allways nasty to united kingdom every year and
nasty comments abouth songs not just just united kingdom you pick on every year all big 5 most time
your comments P I SS A LL OFF
San Marino will win.
My favourites so far, after king Conan has unfairly left us, are Sweden and Russia. The Netherlands’ entry is souless in my opinion… Anyway, I just wanna see a good spectacle tonight (so far the 2 semis were quite weak overall)
Funny that you think the Dutch entry is soulless, but then state that your favourite is Russia …
I believe in Sergey much more than in Duncan… Call me naive!
I don’t think it’s naive, I call it bad taste 🙂
Nop, it is not about taste. It is about execution. Lazarev is superior to Duncan. About the songs themselves: both are weak. Best song in competition this year (after Portugal’s) is Sweden’s
My Prediction:
1. The Netherlands
2. Iceland
3. Sweden
4. Switzerland
5. Italy
6. Russia
7. Australia
8. Spain
9. Serbia
10. Greece
I pray to Gud, that Australia NOT gonna winn. If they do, i nevrr gonna see ESC again.why are they still in ESC . The show is god, but the song is awful.
Agree the song is a disgrace.
Yep, a lady who can sing opera faultlessly whilst being swung around in the air on a 5 metre pole delivering the most unique and interesting live show in probs the last 10-15 years of the ESC is a disgrace???? Are you for real????
The song is bad. The fact she is in a stick does not ad anything positive to it. She has vocal technique but that is all. On that register, Estonia’s song last year was way better.
Hahaha! Zero Gravity is up there with the best and you know it!
total right
can’t you appreciate a heartfelt message? this isn’t soulless, but based on real things she has gone through.
The song is about dealing with depression after the birth of her child. It’s not awful. A beautiful song
I truly think Kate is beautiful and the staging is stellar. Imagine her with a better song. She would have won with a landslide. However I prefer songs I can listen to and Australia is not something I would put on my playlist. There are other options: to dance Malta, Spain, Switzerland or Cyphrus. To listen Sweden, Estonia, Italy or of course Netherlands. Then there are those ballads that are typical Eurovision, over the top and only showing off vocals ; Serbia, North Macedonia, Russia and Albania are typical. I would never listen to them – but I still love… Read more »
Your opinion. Your choice.
I’d rather have the position number drawing back, but who knows?
I have convinced myself that the Australia – Spain transition is so clunky that nobody would have entertained that idea regardless of how good it made the running order and that in the Grand Final Kate must be planning to soar off her pole at the end note and into the arena in a blaze of winning glory… allowing a easier transition
I have convinced myself that the Australia to Spain transition is so clunky and cumbersome that nobody would have surely entertained that idea regardless and that in the Grand Final Kate must be soaring off her pole at the end note and into the arena in a blaze of winning glory making it easier to set up Spain during the postcard rather than a silly cut to a green room right before the final song.
There is absolutely no scenario Tamara Todevska can lose. Start searching hotels in North Macedonia.
The camera work this year especially on anything upbeat with a lot of movement and camera angle changes has been really bad.
WE HAVE THE WINNERRRRRRRR
AUSTRALIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
THIS IS THE MOMENT…. THIS IS IT
https://youtu.be/jV9kr135e90
S
Y
D
N
E
Y
2
0
2
0
If they win it will be in a European city organised by SBS 🙂
i’m interested in how fans place new loyalties once their favourites are knocked out in semi-finals…
would they take the aspects/genre/production/mood of their NQ favourites and refocus their allegiances in the GF?
example… would those who loved Finland switch to something similar (EDM vibes…)
would those who loved the camp of Croatia go for another campy number
would those who loved something like Austria’s simplicity
(other possible examples)
Moldova —- North Macedonia/Albania
Lithuania —- Estonia/UK/Germany
Portugal —- France / Italy
Austria/Latvia/Romania —- Serbia/Slovenia
Armenia —- Belarus/Switzerland
You get my drift
I dont know about the televoters but regarding the juries they have been instructed in the manual to vote for sweden in case their first choice is out of the competition.
I’m not sure how even an EDM fan would like Finland’s. It wasn’t good at all.
That is an interesting exercise but it is not that straightforward. After Portugal is out, I will only vote for Sweden and Russia, for instance. Not France nor Italy for sure
Albania will break the number 2 curse. They did it in 2012 (3rd in GF), they did it in 2018 (3rd in semifinal), they will do it again this year. We will be here.
Who needs staging and a good running order when you’re Jonida Maliqiii!!!
lol I totally agree
I just must say one thing. Switzerland ?? had a horrible performance! I mean what the hell were they thinking wist staging like that and that weird camera cuts? It just isn’t good. And that outfits and all red lighting…staging swallowed the songs. They are dancing and cemera is showing arena or cutting dance in little squares. I just don’t get it.
Luca is a great dancer but he can’t sing life. He sounds out of breath almost the whole time!
Because he’s dancing too much perhaps
I think we got actual heavyweights if we go backwards: Spain (the peak of the party), Australia, Switzerland, Serbia (strong ballad, strong singing after not so strong singing), Italy, France, Azerbaijan. Also, three-in-a-row songs in native languages will kinda be “contrasted” by eachother (and boost Australia). Iceland, Russia and Sweden are pretty isolated so it will be easy for them to stand out. And last, somewhere in the middle, a very interesting sandwich of Cyprus, Greece and the Netherlands. Those 13 should be the left side of the scoreboard, imo.
Agreed. The last 6 are gonna be total slayage!
We all should just fasten our seatbelts. It is going to be a bumpy night! 😉
hey so did Zala & Gasper pull a Franka and didn’t show up to Wiwijam even though they were supposed to?
really??? firstly the were so rude in the press conference, then this? Yikes
give them a break, they spoke to the Slovenian press, they didn’t mean to be rude and are very grateful but just were extremely exhausted and they are awkward because it’s hard for them to cope with the media and the whole circus
but they expressed that it’s a learning experience and that they need to be more aware of their gestures
I sure hope so.
Sacha jean baptiste is so predictable and boring to be honest. She is repeating herself and ruined Swiss entry. You can’t see Luca’s dancing properly the screen cut is very odd like it shows him very short… and the red light swallows him like its very sharp red…
So glad Australia dumped her and went with our own staging
Swiss entry is great! What about Cyprus??? She completely destroyed Tamta! She seems so stiff and blank!! So dissapointing
Australia in second place, its that a joke…
So basically everything is favorable except number 2. Great journalism. I am blown away.
So, under Norway’s performance at the jury final, the cameras turned black several times and no one could see anything, but when they complained and wanted another chance to perform, they didnt’t get it.
But when it’s SWEDEN, that’s when Björkman steps in and literally changes the rules and format of the jury voting.
This years eurovision is a big, fat joke in my opinion. Sorry Norway, sorry everyone else, let’s hope a country who can host a good contest wins this year!
Wow really that’s awful, anything to jeopardise another country, and Norway actually had a very catchy upbeat song, hopefully Norway doesn’t wrongfully come last, and something can happen where they can perform last tomorrow, cause that’s totally unfair.
Björkman has always been a joke
Nothing sad here. The man is selfpromoting and selfrightous. Thats why everyone know him by his first name. And his base loves him no matter what. I suppose soon you will be aiming for the fake news argument.
OOO 17th has the most winners from that spot… REYKJAVIK 2020!
I dont like Bjorkman and most importantly his intentions. He is always indicating favoritsm towards the bookies favorites and Sweden, and he screws countries and acts he doesnt like (placing Greece after The netherlands killed any chances they had for top10). If he continues to be show producer, he will propose pre recorded backing vocals and god knows what else…..
It sounded like Azerbaijan were using pre recorded vocals in SF2. I’m not sure of the technical terms, but he wasn’t singing, he was making another noise, the warbling bit when he goes into the sky but the vocals were consistent with the rest of the song.
Yes, i noticed that too.
Well, Norway had in 2017. And you know what is funny? The norwegian delegation complained in 1999 about prerecorded vocals in the croatian entry. And you know what is more funny? The head of delegation was Jon ola Sand.
Enough said.
He has 5 backing singers. They should make it so backing singers can’t be hidden away.
UK 1984 first hidden backing singers.Second was Sweden 2012. After that many countries hidden backing singers.
So he’s miming through the chorus then!
Considering Switzerland, The Netherlands, and Australia I feel all got the biggest cheers in the crowd, Its a possibility but until the night its anybody’s win.
I just watched a video where Bjorkman said that he even considers the props when deciding the running order, and how to help the crew by not having too much changes between songs.
In the meantime, Austalia with the poles perfoms 25th, and spain who has a whole house on stage perform 26th.
Just kick him out of production next year.
Not possible! The swedes have threatend to withhold Ikea furniture from the if that should happen. And we all know that would be end of the world as we know it.
The changeover for Australia is actually really quick. They literally just wheel them in and start the song. See for yourself:
https://twitter.com/robholley/status/1128390304506220544