With only two days left until the Melodifestivalen 2020 grand final on Saturday, we are starting to see a pattern emerge of where the public is leaning and who the potential winner could be. Dotter still remains the favourite to win if we are to listen to the bookies.
When we last checked the odds, Dotter was still in the lead position with the odds 2.0. However, as of this morning (Thursday, March 5), Unibet’s odds for Dotter have decreased to 1.55, meaning Dotter’s chances of winning have increased.
On Unibet the gap still remains wide between Dotter in first place and Anna Bergendahl in second place with the odds 4.75. The Mamas’ odds have also improved during the week and as of this morning, The Mamas have passed Hanna Ferm and are currently sharing the second place along with Anna Bergendahl.
Hanna Ferm has dropped down to third place, with the odds 9.00 to win. According to the bookmakers, it looks like it will be a battle of the girls this year!
Melodifestivalen 2020 acts on Spotify March 5
While Dotter remains the bookies’ favourite to win, it’s a slightly different story on Spotify. Anis don Demina is the Melodifestivalen act with the highest amount of plays, followed by Felix Sandman and Paul Rey.
It is important to point out is that these three acts, together with Mendez ft. Alvaro Estrella, all qualified through Andra Chansen, meaning their songs have been available on Spotify and YouTube longer than the acts that qualified straight to the final. If we look at those acts that qualified straight to the final, we see Dotter in the lead followed by Hanna Ferm in second place and Anna Bergendahl in third place.
- Anis don Demina – 2,235,222 streams
- Felix Sandman – 2,012,752 streams
- Paul Rey – 1,669,360 streams
- Dotter – 1,558,170 streams
- Hanna Ferm – 1,487,029 streams
- Mendez ft. Alvaro Estrella – 1,224,061 streams
- The Mamas – 1,174,506 streams
- Anna Bergendahl – 1,166,866 streams
- Victor Crone – 837,733 streams
- Robin Bengtsson – 825,945 streams
- Mohombi – 637,530 streams
- Mariette – 476,779 streams
Melodifestivalen 2020 acts on YouTube March 5
The views on YouTube differ a bit compared to the number of streams on Spotify, however, Anis don Demina leads the YouTube streams as well. He is followed by Dotter in second place and Hanna Ferm in third place.
- Anis don Demina – 651,526 views
- Dotter – 505,587 views
- Hanna Ferm – 459,020 views
- Felix Sandman – 432,593 views
- Anna Bergendahl – 306,505 views
- Mendez ft. Alvaro Estrella – 291,386 views
- The Mamas – 271,630 views
- Paul Rey – 212,304 views
- Victor Crone – 194,815 views
- Robin Bengtsson – 149,860 views
- Mohombi – 103,895 views
- Mariette – 72,629 views
If we also have a look at the comments posted on YouTube and how people engage with the Melodifestivalen 2020 acts, Dotter stands out among the 12 finalists. As of now, over 2,500 comments have been left on Dotter’s “Bulletproof” while over 1000 comments have been posted on Hanna Ferm’s “Brave”, and just over 1000 comments on Anis don Demina’s “Vem e som oss”.
- Dotter – 2568 comments
- Hanna Ferm – 1077 comments
- Anis don Demina – 1005 comments
- Anna Bergendahl – 678 comments
- Felix Sandman – 639 comments
- The Mamas – 593 comments
- Paul Rey – 531 comments
- Victor Crone – 482 comments
- Mendez ft. Alvaro Estrella – 375 comments
- Mohombi – 306 comments
- Robin Bengtsson – 266 comments
- Mariette – 137 comments
What do you think of these indicators? Do the odds predict the winner or will there be a surprise? Comment below with what you think!
Sweden we have one job! Don’t fu..it up!
We can be 100% sure they are not going to select a song in Swedish. So, Anis Don Amina is out of question here.
It is not because it is in Swedish it is more since it is not created for fun and not to be taken seriously. Some songs in the Melodifestivalen are not intended for Eurovision. They are more for after ski events. Fun but not serious.
Sweden’s Spotify Top 50 at 5 March 19:53 (Peruvian hour/GMT-5) – 6 March 01:53 (CET/GMT+1) 1. Anis Don Demina – Vem e som oss – 140.528 streams (#3) 2. Dotter – Bulletproof – 133.793 streams (#4) 3. Hanna Ferm – Brave – 119.779 streams (#5) 4. Paul Rey – Talking In My Sleep – 110.872 streams (#6) 5. The Mamas – Move – 106.758 streams (#7) 6. Anna Bergendahl – Kingdom Come – 89.393 streams (#13) 7. Robin Bengtsson – Take a Chance – 73.472 streams (#21) 8. Mendez & Alvaro Estrella – Vamos Amigos – 67.743 streams (#25) 9.… Read more »
My Eurovison Scoreboard tells the following story atm. 1. Dotter 11234 2. Anna 8794 3. Mamas 8454 4. Hanna. 5. Robin. 6. Felix. 7. Paul. 8. Victor. 9. Mariette. 10. Mohombi. 11. Mendez. 12. Anis. I think this may be a more representative predicton than the odds. Its reasonable to assume there are more people thinking that Dotter will win than people who want her to win. I do also think she’ll win. Do I want her to win? Not really. But that’s not important here. My point is that the voting most likely will be a closer race than… Read more »
But how many of the voters of the app are Swedish?
No idea. And ofc., the ESC fandom aren’t always representative for what people in general or juries think either. Perhaps the MES app users are slightly younger than average, I don’t know, but if so, they would also be inclined to like Dotter more than people in general… Hm…
Personally I think this was a very weak Melodifestivalen this year, but overall either Anna or Dotter should go up. Personal favourite was Anna.. I can’t understand the hype around Hanna Fern as it’s a cheesy, high pitched screechy song. Also the Mamas have a similar tune to last year (considering they were back up singers), but not very impressed personally.
So either Anna or Dotter would be fine 🙂
Counting the comments. Somebody definately needs a new hobby.
You’re just jealous coz you only came 4th in comments
Ha, that made me laugh out loud 😛
Melodifestivalen official twitter has released a poll and Mamas won it.
I really think we are all underestimaring them. It is locals magnet and pretty jury at the same time (without trying too hard or feeling calculated).
I’m rooting for Anna but I try to see things with some perspective
Is it that little survey of about 95 people? However the people only voted once. No app where you can vote for several. And I can’t believe Anna ends 2nd to last on Saturday. Dotter was 2nd though. Maybe this is simply a coincidence. Maybe not. But I’m ready for a huge dissapointment somehow.
Also the poll wasn’t done by MF but rather a fan blogg.
Dotter is ready to blind everybody with those lights in Rotterdam
Sadly to say I think Dotter is the only one that can do well. Rest of the favourites wont even reach top 10. Anna Bergendahl has the voice and charisma but the song is straight from the Mamma Mia songbook. Old fashioned schlager. Had Shirley Clamp it would have ended last in semi.
Mamas are to similar from last year and Hanna is well…
You are fogetting Mamas. They can hit both televote and juries. Arena banger factor
Anna can do well with televote. And the redemption story.
Sometimes sending something without overthinking too much about potential results might be the best. And you might be surprised later in a good way
The mamas is same as last year.
I hate to say this. Almost everybody I ask here in Härnösand in Sweden think that the Mamas has the best song. The younger girls like Hanna! I think I have to put my faith on the juries. Love Dotter.
What have other swedes herd?
I have only heard dotter. She’s most talked about within friends and other around my age (19-21)
Låter bra ! De jag snackat med är i 35-50 års åldern och de tror och vill the mamas ska vinna. Anna nämns också … sedan mamma 70 som tycker Robin är ju så trevlig att titta på. Tror det är tanterna vi får beskylla att vi skickat så många grabbar senaste åren. ; ) Min dotters kompisar 11-13 gillar Hanna.
Ungefär samma! Lillasyster som är 12 älskar hanna, min mamma som är 40+ älskar anna dock. De flesta i min ålder har bara snackat om Dotter, vilket jag hoppas vinner! Känns verkligen som ett år där vem som helst kan vinna folkets röster
Hanna= småtjejer 10-18 år
Dotter = 18-35 år
Anna & the Mamas= 35-50
Robin & the Mamas = tanter över 50
Tänker samma! Tror det blir juryn som bestämmer vår vinnare i år med tanke på att vi inte har en klar folkets etta
Hmm… jag tror att Dotter är stor bland riktiga ESC fans. Både Svenska och utländska. Tror även det är de som spelar på odds och röstar här på Wiwi vilken de tycker är bäst. Tror inte oddsen är representativ för vad svenskarna tycker generellt. TYVÄRR!! Heja Dotter.
Om man får tro Facebook så är Dotter populär där med. Och på YouTube är en majoritet av svenskarna positiva.
Oddsen får inte ha så mycket fel, det är statistik bakom. Om Dotter är etta så finns det en anledning bakom. Jag tror Dotter vinner. även om telefonrösterna blir jämna. Men tro juryn räddar upp henne. Det är ett unikt artistiskt nummer som sticker ut, kanske mest av alla. Och juryn är väl ändå där för att bedöma scenframträdande?
Ja, många svenskar är positiva . Men tror att det är sånna som oss … svenska esc nördar som skriver både kommentarer här och på youtube. Men hoppas du har rätt. Lundvik vann väll både omröstning här och i oddsen ifjol om jag minns rätt?
Sedan får vi hoppas på juryn om hon inte vinner folkets röster.
Dotter’s is a perfectly competent entry which will probably do well at Eurovision.
Yet I’ve grown strangely fond of Anna Bergendahl’s “Kingdom Come”. It’s a bit retro, filled with a sense of bittersweet joy, and stays in my head for a long long time. The staging is already so lovable, and there’s a fake ending which explodes into another chorus! I really really hope they end up choosing it in the end.
Good! I like her, i like the song… it is a bit flat, but i like it more than germany and austria.. think they are similar style.. radio friendly.. the staging lifts it up for sure..
For me, the Mama’s all the time! What a party! What a joy!
I love Dotter so I don’t agree, …. but everyone that I ask here in Härnösand/Sweden agree whith you on the other hand. Swedes need joy this time of the year so they have a better chance than the odds says in my opinion.
Sweden needs an arena banger
When asked, most of the artists thinks the winner will be Anna. Hm.. I’m sure she will get high amount of televotes. But the juries? On the other hand. I believe she wood stand out among the ones already chosen for esc.
Yes but what matters is what most viewers think. Artists arent deciding, are they? Most people think Dotter will win.
Alla jag frågar föredrar the Mamas. Jag tror inte de har någon chans med den låten i ESC men tror många i 40-50 års åldern gillar dem. Små tjejerna gillar Hanna.
Personligen tror jag bara Dotter kan vinna ESC och tok älskar låten., men tror inte hon vinner telefonrösterna på lördag.
My mother wants Dotter or Anna. She’s 64 😀 She does not like The Mamas. Gospel as a genre is not to everyone’s liking. I think the international juries will have a huge impact on the final result if there is no runaway winner among the televotes. I feel sometimes I can’t even watch on Saturday. It’s too exciting and the outcome so unsure. I fear the Mamas win. I really don’t want it. Gaaaah!
With these streming numbers, one would say that Anis would be a favorite to win, but as his song is both funny and in Swedish, we all know that ain’t going to happen. If this was Supernova or Songvakeppnin, maybe. In Melodifestivalen, the winner just has to be very jury friendly. That also crosses Mendez & Alvaro off the list. Mariette, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be having much televoting support and she’d need to score at least top 5 there in order to win. Furthermore, based on the running order, we can say that Paul Rey won’t… Read more »
Both loreen and Måns won with the #6 spot, so singing at 7 shouldn’t be a problem with her song
Kind of agree with you. I wouldn’t rule out The Mamas though. I think it would be between Felix (juries), The Mamas (televote) and Dotter (overall). Those are also the three that stand the best chances to get into the top 10 in May. I don’t see Anna or Hanna that high. I don’t now about Robin the song is Ed Sheeran-ish but it lacks the feel-good uplifting vibe.
Dotter is changing her performance today to make the lightshow « bigger and better ». I’m a bit curious because I thought the staging was already flawless – each camera cut, each lighting was very precise and polished. Nonetheless she said she would go back to the last performance if it looks bad during the rehearsals. Can’t wait to see!
if you watch again, it was a BIT messy at times – a few times she moved too much and the lights had to be adjusted. I get why she might want to polish it a bit – great concept, just a few tweaks. It could also do with more of a climax towards the end, lift the song a bit more.
True for the fact that the lights had to be adjusted but I think it is gonna happen anyway, she cannot be SO precise ahah. But i’m curious about what they are gonna do. I hope for a big climax as well, even though I was really satisfied with what they did for the SF
I love Dotter and hope she wins on one hand, but on the other hand I don’t. Why? Because I’m afraid that she’s gonna put Lithuania or Iceland in danger. She could potentiolly win or at least steal away votes from the other two. I think it’s time for Lithuania or Iceland to win, it’s been a long time coming for both of them.
Really cuz neither country has been too consistent in sending quality acts. If Sweden won again it would be because they take Eurovision seriously. It’s like from February to May Sweden evolves around Melodifestivalen/Eurovision and then Midsommer followed by fall and winter hibernation.
Sweden would shoot to my #1 and possibly send my favorite entry from them ever if they pick Dotter.
That is a huge gap, insane odds! On Eurovisionworld her odds to win is now 51%, Runner up Bergendahl is far behind on 16 %.
Thats insane, that is bigger odds than both Måns and Frans. If these odds were real then Dotter would have been the biggest MF winner.
I do think she will win, but doubt it will be that runaway win, especially with app voting.
I do think Dotter is a favourite but yeah these odds are not always accurate. John Lundvik had a big win last year but his odds were a staggering 65% percent. Anna Bergendahl and the Mamas have odds of around 15% to win and Robin Bengtsson in 2017 and Robin Stjernberg (sorry about spelling) in 2013 had similar odds to win and won! I’m no expert but based on a cominbation of factors (betting, polls, views, charts) I think Dotter does have an advantage but Anna and The Mamas will give her a run for her money.
Dotterdamnn 2020 or bye Sweden…
Dotter seems to be following Sanna Nielsen’s steps, with a well-structured song and a staging that manages to grab your attention (btw also fostering her red hair attraction) . If she wins, she will go directly to my top 3 this year and very likely to the top spot. But I also admit that Anna’s comeback/revenge would be historic for ESC.
Been loving Bulletproof for a while now and I won’t be surprised if it won on Saturday but I’m swaying towards Kingdom Come.. Anna’s narrative and the song are just soooo good..
really? I think Anna’s song really walks that fine line between dated and classic….and look what happened to Estonia in 2017 (despite being fan favourites).
had Anna’s song been performed by Jessica Andersson no one would have liked it..
Estonia 2017? Look what happened to Norway 2019 or Denmark 2018
Although Dotter has a nice song, I don’t think it’s the best choice for Eurovision.
If Dotter wins, Sweden, Iceland, Lithuania, Switzerland and depending on the live performance/staging Poland, will make a great Top 5 otherwise a very bland contest this year.
Still looking forward to hear Bulgaria, Russia and… Ireland lol.
Where do those Spotify numbers come from? Last time I checked Dotter is the 2nd most played song of the Melfest songs in Sweden’s top 50. Felix far behind!
My top. 1. Dotter. 2. Anna 3. Felix
Isn’t it overall plays, not just Sweden?
Although I want Dotter to win, I am a bit surprised that Anna isn’t ahead of her in the odds given that she has a better position in the running order and the fact that she’ll certainly get sympathy votes due to what happened to her at Eurovision 10 years ago and the resulting media narrative around that.
Is it really better for Anna? Dotter has the better position because she is between Robin Bengtsson and Mendez, two acts no one is expecting to do well. Anna Bergendahl is following Sandman, which is a favourite and after her is the obligatory Swedish novelty act, this time performed by a YouTuber
“What happened to her 10 years ago” … what did happen? She stayed in the semi and rightfully so. Why was it such a big deal in Sweden and media? It was a weak song and staging, probably the worst Sweden has ever sent. On the other hand we have countries like North Macedonia who fail to qualify with amazing songs (2017, 2018 etc) If Anna wins, she will stay in the semis this year as well, sorry.
It’s because of International juries factor probably
I really hope for Dotter. But I think The Mamas will attract the international juries. Sorry to say. I really don’t want them!
And that’s because I think Bulletproof is not as direct as Move or perhaps Kingdom come.
Dotter is artistic though and I do think juries will acknowledge that.
Her or the Mamas. I really think the Mamas are in it with a chance.
I think the Mamas will do well with juries, maybe even win with them. But I doubt they’ll be more than somewhere in the middle with the public vote.
Dotter remains the favourite but I don’t think those odds are reflective of the actual likelihood of it happening. I think it’s much closer than it appears. I think international juries will find things to like about Dotter, Felix, Hanna and, to a lesser extent, Robin and even Paul Rey.
I wouldn’t recommend skipping the programme because you think the outcome is obvious. I think it’s going to be an exciting (and close!) watch.
I would be so disappointed if Robin won.
Exactly! We are in for a really thrilling and tense show (probably followed by a relaxed acceptance of Barbara Tinoco’s win in Portugal).
Meanwhile, I believe that UMK will be even more unpredictable and I see a huge fan uproar if Erika doesn’t win. I hope she does.
Just shoot me in the middle where my heart is supposed to be if Dotter doesn’t win.
Also – she’ll be first female for Sweden since 2014!!!
And what? So would Anna. Or the Mamas. Or Hanna Ferm. All the contenders for the win are women this year. I think the strongest male singer would be Victor Crone, but I doubt he’ll connect with a sufficient number of people. Some televoters will like him, his vocals and his effect show, sure, and there might also be some jury points, simply because he’s doing what Sweden has been doing “safely” for the last five years. But eventually, it will most likely be Dotter or Anna anyway.