Back in September, the EBU revealed the four scenarios, which reflect different ways the Covid-19 pandemic could affect holding the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 in Rotterdam. And we’ll soon know which scenario will be used for Eurovision 2021. Executive Producer Sietse Bakker has confirmed that the scenario for Rotterdam will be decided “in four to five weeks”.

Sietse Bakker made the update with a tweet, linking to a newspaper article on Dutch live events planned for 2021. He wrote, “The scenarios are ready, we will start making decisions in 4 to 5 weeks.”

The current Dutch lockdown

The Netherlands is currently in the middle of a lockdown, described by the Dutch government as “its strictest lockdown yet”. The restrictions require people to work from home, if possible, keep 1.5 metres apart from others, avoid busy places and to wear a facemask when out in public.

As well, most events are currently banned in the Netherlands and singing and shouting in groups is not allowed.

These restrictions are in place until at least 19 January, though there is the possibility that they may be extended beyond that time. Such continued lockdown restrictions could affect which Eurovision scenario ends up being used.

The four Eurovision scenarios

In September 2020, the EBU and the Dutch producers revealed the four potential scenarios for Eurovision 2021.

Scenario A is a normal Eurovision Song Contest, with a packed audience of fans and delegations, activities around Rotterdam including the Eurovillage and Euroclub. However, with widespread uptake of the Covid vaccine being a long way off, this scenario seems very unlikely for 2021.

Scenario B is a socially distant Eurovision. It would still involve a live audience, but with a smaller and social distanced audience. There would also be limits on the size of delegations and on media numbers.

Scenario C is Eurovision with travel restrictions. This scenario is similar to Scenario B, but also includes delegations that are unable to travel to Rotterdam. Such acts would record their performance in their own country, which would be incorporated into the show.

Scenario D is Eurovision in lockdown. The show would still go ahead, but with no live audience. All delegations would participate via a pre-recorded performance that will be presented from the show at Ahoy Arena. This is very like the scenario used for Junior Eurovision 2020.

Regardless of which scenario is used, all delegations will record a “live-to-tape” performance of their entry that will ensure the show can go on even if last-minute changes are needed.

What do you think? Which scenario do you think would be the most sensible choice? Tell us your thoughts below!

Read more Eurovision 2021 news here

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Piet
Piet
12 days ago

Scenario E: delay ESC to August, then business as usual and turn it onto one big party to celebrate the end of Corona!

Samo
Samo
11 days ago
Reply to  Piet

A) There will not be an “end of corona”.
B) Host broadcaster in 2022 would only have 9 months to prepare and that’s not sufficient. Even the usual 12 months are so-so.

ezy420
ezy420
14 days ago

Guys, have you not noticed European football is back on this season, even through the lockdowns? Some countries even allowed spectators (https://www.goal.com/en/news/which-fans-can-go-to-premier-league-games-uk-club-lockdown-tiers-/1kn81ohbz78o11rfum9od1nxyg). Scenario D is impossible, we’ve seen governments make exceptions for sports teams and professional competitions, provided the people involved get tested. Scenario A might be possible by May, but because the decision needs to be made early and there are still too many unknowns about the vaccine, they won’t be able to choose this option now, so it’s practically impossible as well. B & C are essentially the same, and I’m certain it’ll be one of these two.… Read more »

Micky
Micky
14 days ago

I honestly don’t mind whatever scenario is chosen as long as there is a contest, it’s not like scenario D will be THAT bad, am I right?

Samo
Samo
11 days ago
Reply to  Micky

D is pretty bad.

But I’m sure they will pull at least C. C would be possible even today, EU citizens can travel to the Netherlands.

Azuro
Azuro
15 days ago

As long as they don’t cancel. Not putting up with a 3rd year in a row with Duncan Lawrence the reigning champ and NOSTros whatever it called today as host broadcaster

Barry
Barry
15 days ago
Reply to  Azuro

AVROTROS

Jimmy Smit
Jimmy Smit
14 days ago
Reply to  Azuro

It would just be his second year as reigning champion. If he had a third year as reigning champion then ESC 2021 and ESC 2022 would both have to be cancelled, which is too woeful to even think about it!

Denis
Denis
15 days ago

Final thought: Scenario D is scenario D for a reason. It is to be used if things are getting worse, and it’s choice nobody really wants. And yes, of course it is to be used over option nothing. If the contest was now or in few weeks then yes it would have been used. But I think they like to look ahead when they plan and how things might look in May. And in May I think things will look better. Therefore I think they might go with option B. But it could be turn out to be wishful thinking,… Read more »

Jimmy Smit
Jimmy Smit
15 days ago
Reply to  Denis

Always good to be hopeful 🙂

Jimmy Smit
Jimmy Smit
15 days ago

I will take Option D any day of the year over the Option Nothing that we had in 2020.

The organisers are clearly determined to put on the best show possible, good on the team for being realistic and keeping in touch with the fans.

Last edited 15 days ago by Jimmy Smit
Andrés
Andrés
15 days ago
Reply to  Jimmy Smit

I second that.

Lule A
Lule A
15 days ago

It all depends on not just the Netherlands but other countries situations too, over here in UK it’s looking unlikely that we’ll be able to travel with the new strand of the virus.
Even if things are gradually getting better by May that’s no guarantee for a live audience, I’m thinking they should do a virtual audience.
Most likely scenario is C in my eyes, it all depends on which countries have travel bans

florinho
florinho
15 days ago

guys search what is happening here in Romania with TVR.. its a huge scandal and i think eurovision national final is in danger also..they made on new years eve anti covid program where they made fun of people who have masks and now they could face legal troubles
TVR could be shut down by romanian Parlament

Last edited 15 days ago by florinho
Erasmus
Erasmus
15 days ago
Reply to  florinho

ok we don’t need the national final, but we do need Roxen in esc 2021.

Last edited 15 days ago by Erasmus
Frisian esc
Frisian esc
15 days ago
Reply to  Erasmus

Without tvr no roxen

ESC8
ESC8
15 days ago

Since Rotterdam has a port I think that they could easily do what the Italians are about to do with San Remo. The delegations could stay on a cruise ship for fourteen days. They’d get covid tests frequently. They’d arrive in the Netherlands on 26th of April and they’d stay aboard until 10 May when the rehearsals probably will start. If someone is positive on arrival in the Netherlands then they could stay at another place or they should return home (I don’t know the Dutch legislation regarding the flights) and they would use the performance they prerecorded. I think… Read more »

Samo
Samo
11 days ago
Reply to  ESC8

That’s a good method to make sure EVERYONE involved will get infected. You want as little contact between delegations as possible, not the opposite.

Kosey
Kosey
15 days ago

Realistically speaking, I think it will be D. There is a chance that the virus situation will be much better by May, however it will be too big a gamble for the organizers to wait long enough to check.

Whatever happens, it is still our job to make it fun!

Loin dici
Loin dici
15 days ago

I think B is only achievable ever the situation improves rapidly. C is possible, but it don’t think it promotes fairness. Most probably it’s gonna be D…

Although they can have a mix of B and D altogether, even if it’s too far-fetched. No live audience but everyone can still record/perform live on the stage.

Peter van Zyäi
Peter van Zyäi
15 days ago

Despite the lock down situation caused by coronavirus, I still hope Eurovision 2021 can still able to happen (Duncan has desperately waited for almost 2 years for that). The broadcaster can learn from JESC 2020 for making a great and fantastic show even with travel restrictions (except that without autotune and playback) .

Hyunwoo
Hyunwoo
15 days ago

I have three options,

1: If scenario D or C is organized, then the delegation from any country in Europe will be asked to move to another city (for example, in Sochi, because the number of vaccinated people in Russia has become 800,000)

2: If the scenario D or C is still organized, then the organizers can invite the audience by Zoom

3: It can be moved to 2022

Hyunwoo
Hyunwoo
15 days ago

Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Health, Welfare and Sports of the Netherlands Hugo de Jonge said that vaccination against coronavirus in the country will begin on January 6.

As stated in the relevant document, “on this day, vaccination will begin in a special center in the city of Weghel.”

The first to be vaccinated will be employees of nursing homes.

CRAIG
CRAIG
15 days ago

Unless there’s signifiant improvement in caseloads around Europe over the next month then I think the best we can hope for is option C, with D definitely a real possibility.

Samo
Samo
11 days ago
Reply to  CRAIG

I don’t see a reason for D. EU citizens (and Australians as well) can travel to the Netherlands, so most delegations would be able to attend. I firmly believe in C, possibly B if things improve.

Rob
Rob
15 days ago

I didn’t see that coming so soon. I thought the decision would be announced in early March but I understand that organizing the contest in a volatile and fast changing situation requires a clear cut decision with all the extra logistics and adjustments involved. Personally I would like to see all countries on an equal footing so scenarios D and B would be more favorable than C, but beggars can’t be choosers and any decision will be welcomed. The irony is that by May 18th the pandemic will have dramatically slowed down thanks to an effective vaccination schedule (according to… Read more »

Liam Lindsay
Liam Lindsay
15 days ago

Scenario C is likely however given the new variant of Coronavirus Scenario D is far more likely and given the time frame of the decision making only solidifies that Scenario D is the choice ahead.

I really feel for the Dutch, waiting 40-45 years to host only to have a pandemic take the wind out of their sails and prevents them one year and can’t actually do it properly the next. I mentioned this on a different article comment but, I stand by my original comment regarding that The Netherlands should get a AQ for 2022.

Jonas
Jonas
15 days ago
Reply to  Liam Lindsay

An automatic qualification makes no sense to me – it won’t benefit them, it might even hurt them. If they don’t have a song good enough to qualify normally, they have no chance of winning anyway.

esc2021rotterdam
esc2021rotterdam
15 days ago
Reply to  Liam Lindsay

AQ is just a bad solace, actually the right opinion is when a country can’t or doesn’t want to host esc just give the host bid to the netherlands and meanwhile the netherlands has to take esc more serious than ever

ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
15 days ago

Scenario A is obviously the ideal scenario for me and for all other Eurofans but unfortunately the article claims that Scenario A is unlikely for 2021 so I’m hoping for Scenario B because it is the only other scenario that bears any resemblance to a normal contest. I think Scenario D is unlikely because by the time May comes around the weather will get warmer and that should weaken the virus.

Also I hope the Netherlands will win Eurovision again in the future because I want them to be able to host Eurovision in a normal setting without any restrictions.

Ashton
Ashton
15 days ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

warmer weather doesn’t weaken the virus. that’s a myth. its been really warm in australia both through spring and now summer, and we still have cases.

dxi
dxi
15 days ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

Amen to that last sentence. My mom waited over 40 years to see Eurovision in real life (we even managed to get tickets). She won’t be able to wait another 40 years.

esc2021rotterdam
esc2021rotterdam
15 days ago
Reply to  dxi

You can instead buy tickets for a esc in other country

Last edited 15 days ago by esc2021rotterdam
esc2021rotterdam
esc2021rotterdam
15 days ago
Reply to  dxi

If you can’t go to eurovision this year in your home country so maybe instead buy tickets for a eurovision in other country and travel there next year

Frisian esc
Frisian esc
15 days ago

This wait is killing me since i just want clarity if my tickets will be cancelled or not. Altough i’m already 99% certain they will be.. If we get scenario D or C i hope it won’t be like JESC where half of the countries use almost only autotune. Would take all of the excitement away.

Serafina
Serafina
15 days ago

Why are y’all acting like D is worse than nothing? Like… I know you want 100, I’m giving you 10 and you’d rather have zero then? It makes absolutely no sense. JESC 2020 is here to prove scenario D can still be enjoyable and fun, we’ll still get 41 songs, 41 live performances, interval acts, cringy hosting, the voting segments and everything else we love about eurovision. It’s the same thing done differently, and I’d rather have different than nothing so… I’m not concerned, just excited, and y’all should be as well.

Hyunwoo
Hyunwoo
15 days ago
Reply to  Serafina

The scenarios do not depend on Covid, it depends on the behavior of people, they should not be vaccinated, but just do a good lifestyle, namely, eat fruits and vegetables.

Last edited 15 days ago by Hyunwoo
Ashton
Ashton
15 days ago
Reply to  Hyunwoo

not the anti-vaxxer……..

Jonas
Jonas
15 days ago
Reply to  Hyunwoo

Stop spreading such idiotic nonsense, it is dangerous. Wiwi, please delete – just in case anybody actually believes it.

Loin dici
Loin dici
15 days ago
Reply to  Serafina

It does matter because it’s not gonna be our usual eurovision with the glitz, glam, audience cheering, drunk performers, excessively long carpet walks, the annoying amounts of interviews and all. But yes fans have to understand we are currently living in special circumstances and any decision regarding Eurovision needs to be welcomed with open arms. At least we have Eurovision in 2021, and that’s a good thing.

Samo
Samo
15 days ago

C will definitely be possible in May and I think it’s very likely B will too. However, if they need to make the decission by mid-February, I think we’re heading for C or D.

Whatever they choose, I hope it will be an enjoyable show, not a funeral like Europe Shine The Light last May.

ESC8
ESC8
15 days ago

I am definitely wishing for Scenario A, but let’s be realistic this is not going to happen in 2021. At least I really believe in 2022 we will do it. As things stand right now I think we are going for a D. I don’t know how things will be in the Netherlands in 4-5 weeks from now, but it will be early February. I think that the national lockdown will still be in power, but having my fingers crossed that it will end in February ( I do not live in the Netherlands though, I’m just trying to make… Read more »

Bear
Bear
15 days ago
Reply to  ESC8

We’re heading in the right direction, but we’re not there yet. This second lockdown was initially needed because the number of pos. tested people increased too quickly in December. 19 january is still “too far” away to make conclusions whether the lockdown should be expanded or not. But we definitely see a decline in the number of people who go to the intensive care/hospital, so that’s good news. Also the daily number of pos. tested people declines: we overcame the peak. The current reproduction number is 1,15 and it should be below 1. But it still takes some time. I… Read more »

Last edited 15 days ago by Bear
ESC8
ESC8
15 days ago
Reply to  Bear

Thank you very much!

Denis
Denis
15 days ago

I actually think option D is the least likely. There is no way restrictions will last that long, its not realistic in the long way. Most likely option B is the one to go for with option C second

Anonymous
Anonymous
15 days ago
Reply to  Denis

No one knows what the situation will be in May, so if the decision needs to be taken now or in February, the only available option is option D.

Denis
Denis
15 days ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Even so you can’t have restrictions that long. At some point you have to re-open everything.A three month lock.down is to long.. Scenario D is only there if things should get worse and by May there is no chance it will be worse. So option B could work by May

Last edited 15 days ago by Denis
Hyunwoo
Hyunwoo
15 days ago
Reply to  Denis

The scenarios do not depend on Covid, it depends on the behavior of people, they should not be vaccinated, but just do a good lifestyle, namely, eat fruits and vegetables.?

Bem
Bem
15 days ago

I don’t know what I will do if it’s not scenario A. I have tickets and hotels booked but I’m not prepared for not going. This is going to be the first time for me at Eurovision and I was looking forward to being right down the front.

esc2021rotterdam
esc2021rotterdam
15 days ago

A is not possible unfortunately but I hope Jeangu will have a really strong song that will be a contender to win and then Rotterdam will be able to host a normal show in 2022 (or if not so send Duncan again in 2022 and then it can happen in 2023).

Last edited 15 days ago by esc2021rotterdam
Erasmus
Erasmus
15 days ago

please let it be b. or a good version of C were 90% of countries will perform on the stage.

AndersP
AndersP
15 days ago

I reckon they’ll have no choice but Option D if the decision is needed in only 4 weeks. Delegations will need certainty to prepare their performances – whilst most over 65s should be vaccinated by May, it’s not clear what the status of the rest of the population will be by then. If there is an audience option in Rotterdam, I wouldn’t count on it being international. So sad, but look on the bright side, at least it’s happening this year!

Anonymous
Anonymous
15 days ago
Reply to  AndersP

Spot on.

Bear
Bear
15 days ago

It’s a shame that we won’t see the “normal” ESC so close in my home city. I really was looking forward for two + weeks of having fun with people from all over the world who share the exact same passion. But understandable. I hope it will be (A), B or C. I don’t expect those preparties in the city (probably some festive decorations in the city center and around Ahoy). Concerning the social distancing: luckily the hall is really large: they can mask the emptiness with darkness, or make it full of light bulbs / bracelets like during the… Read more »

Last edited 15 days ago by Bear
HarpyDarper
HarpyDarper
15 days ago
Reply to  Bear

I have lived in the Hague years ago, and I feel your pain. I’ve longed for the Netherlands to play host, welcome all the festivities and for the chance to revisit Rotterdam. Especially during the NQ years. But I’m thinking A & B are super unlikely 🙁

Jonas
Jonas
15 days ago
Reply to  Bear

It’s definitely sad that you can’t have a normal contest, but it will be a special contest – one that will stand out from others, that will mean something to a lot of people – and be remembered and appreciated.

Robert
Robert
15 days ago

I know complaining about COVID gets old but man oh man it ruins so much.. We finally win Eurovision, are able to put on an amazing show.. Well I do hope for A or B regardless.. Have to stay positive although I know the odds are against us.. Actually very sad about it!

Alex
Alex
15 days ago

I think it will either be C or D, most likely C since things tend to be better with warmer weather. Still, i have not seen any live shows with audience of this size yet so i guess EBU might want to go for D. Any more details on how many fans can attend the show under the scenario C? How can they be socially distant? I guess there will be seats but it is gonna be awkward to have them distant and who would decide which ones will be able to attend the show? It will look empty in… Read more »

TD303
TD303
15 days ago
Reply to  Alex

The article clearly states that the government described it as “the strictest lockdown yet”, i.e. for the Netherlands. Anyways, I think they are going to be more positive and pick B. Nobody can know for sure however

Cameron
Cameron
15 days ago

It will most likely be C or D, they are the safest options and respect guidelines set by different countries.

FanESC
FanESC
15 days ago

I think they’ll go for the scénario D, they can’t take any risk.

Heyhey
Heyhey
16 days ago

In my opinion best option is B and they could even use an outdoor arena instead of ahoy. Much safer, but still with audience. Also it’s unfair for a country to be unable to travel, maybe a special occasion visit should be agreed by each government.

Lolek
Lolek
16 days ago

B would be great but D would be most likely I’d think (assuming Eurovision is still happening in May this year).

Denis
Denis
15 days ago
Reply to  Lolek

What’s this with still assuming? It’s been well established there will be a ESC no matter what. No need to assume..

Una
Una
16 days ago

I don’t like scenario C. Reason: delegations from the different countries have no control over restrictions and whatnot. There are too many variables to consider. I wish there were an even playing field for all delegations. I would vote for A, B or D.
If we consider the C scenario, participation in Rotterdam would be nearly the luck of the draw so to speak. Not punish all delegations if only one or two are unable to travel? What would be the acceptable treshold then?

Ria van de Velde
Ria van de Velde
16 days ago

I am affraid that it will be Scenario D. But I hope not !!

Barry Tsai
Barry Tsai
16 days ago

C is the worst possible option – Having some artists perform live and others using pre recorded video’s of ‘live’ performances will be a mess of a show. Perhaps the EBU might be a little more stringent with ESC, but certainly at the JESC show insufficient checks were in place to ensure that the broadcast performances were indeed live.

Leo
Leo
16 days ago

They should announce 2 options, B or C, and should announce the maximum capacity cap relative to that of if the 2020 contest took place as normal, and than announce the confirmed scenario and capacity cap closer to the time (I think 40-60% of intended 2020 attendance, all seated at 1.5m apart or at tables). I expect all acts to be able to travel by May but it can’t just be exactly as normal.
I also expect the red carpet to be indoors and limited fan events, though opportunities to maximise online promo.

Last edited 16 days ago by Leo
Alo
Alo
16 days ago

Hoping for B, but I think C has more chances

Labenyofi
Labenyofi
16 days ago

My prediction: Option C will be chosen. It is the one that most fits the typical Eurovision style, but it also still stays within the guidelines. That option provides the most flexibility for artists and delegations, as well as the host country. If it gets worse, then you just can simply go to a D scenario. If it gets better, then all delegations go to Rotterdam, and the show will go on.

TL/DR: They are probably going to pick option C because of the flexibility.

Eurovision fan
Eurovision fan
16 days ago

Probably scenario B

Joe
Joe
16 days ago

I’m just glad it’s happening!

zeev
zeev
16 days ago

It all depends on the progress of the vaccine

Vytautas
Vytautas
16 days ago

It’s going to be either scenario C (if blessed) or scenario D (if cursed). To have the audience is very unlikely since Europe is still lacking control of the pandemic and vaccination has just begun. Q1-Q2 will be to ensure all the medical staff is vaccinated in the European Union, I suppose the alike situation is with the rest countries with maybe Australia, UK, and Israel being exceptions. Not gonna have scenario A for sure as some restrictions will continue at least until June-July.

Ashton
Ashton
16 days ago

I’m thinking it’ll be B.

Una
Una
16 days ago

Waving the fllagg of Eurovision … 🙁