At the start of January, Eurovision 2021 Executive Producer Sietse Bakker revealed that we will know which scenario will be used for May’s contest in “4 to 5 weeks”. And now, as we enter February, the moment has arrived.

Dutch organisers are expected to make the official announcement on whether Eurovision will happen under Scenario A, B, C or D during a lunchtime press conference at 13:00 CET on Wednesday 3 February.

Eurovision 2021 scenario expected on Wednesday

The official Eurovision channels have yet to confirm if this is the case. However, media outlets have been invited to the press conference which will be conducted online. They have been briefed that it will be an update on Eurovision 2021. Our sources have confirmed that the chosen scenario will form part of the agenda.

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The four Eurovision scenarios

In September 2020, the EBU and the Dutch producers revealed the four potential scenarios for Eurovision 2021.

Scenario A is a normal Eurovision Song Contest, with a packed audience of fans and delegations, activities around Rotterdam including the Eurovillage and Euroclub. However, with widespread uptake of the Covid vaccine being a long way off, this scenario seems very unlikely for 2021.

Scenario B is a socially distant Eurovision. It would still involve a live audience, but with a smaller and social distanced audience. There would also be limits on the size of delegations and on media numbers.

Scenario C is Eurovision with travel restrictions. This scenario is similar to Scenario B, but also includes delegations that are unable to travel to Rotterdam. Such acts would record their performance in their own country, which would be incorporated into the show.

Scenario D is Eurovision in lockdown. The show would still go ahead, but with no live audience. All delegations would participate via a pre-recorded performance that will be presented from the show at Ahoy Arena. This is very like the scenario used for Junior Eurovision 2020.

Regardless of which scenario is used, all delegations will record a “live-to-tape” performance of their entry that will ensure the show can go on even if last-minute changes are needed.

The chosen scenario does not have to be final

In an interview last month, Bakker revealed that the decision announced now will not necessarily be final. According to Sietse, Ahoy Rotterdam and the Dutch Eurovision team can still scale the contest up in the time between February and May. Looking back on his earlier press conferences, Sietse thinks that the announcement of the scenarios won’t be as vital as he first thought. He said:

“Last year, I saw a dramatic moment in which I, with a drum roll in the background, would announce the chosen scenario. I think that it won’t be that spectacular in the end. We will decide things in the first half of February. It will be realistic story. In April we will build the stage. The arrival of the artists will be in the second week of May. We will only do it when it’s responsible, and in collaboration with the municipality, the safety region and the responsible ministries.”

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Micky
Micky
8 months ago

So B it is! It might go to C after all, but hey, it’s better than nothing, am I right?

Mors
Mors
8 months ago

Eurovision website posted an article and if I understood correctly, it says that they are planning for scenario B, with the possibility to downgrade it to C or even D. That’s better than I expected and I’m very pleased to hear that we can possibly have a close-to-normal-like Eurovision in May!

Last edited 8 months ago by Mors
Mors
Mors
8 months ago
Reply to  Mors

Okay, I just read it the whole way through and it says that they ruled out scenario A for sure (which was expected), but are keeping the options B, C and D on the table. They say a further announcement on how the contest will be staged will be made in the coming weeks. So… I guess we still don’t know 100% which scenario it will be, but we got some clue on the plans.

eurofan
eurofan
8 months ago

Where. Can I watch it

Micky
Micky
8 months ago
Reply to  eurofan

It is on his Instagram I think

Robert
Robert
8 months ago

Gonna be scenario B.. Which is better than nothing.. I was just told through news media

Michaela
Michaela
8 months ago
Reply to  Robert

really? can you give us link please? =)

Harm Stirnberg
Harm Stirnberg
8 months ago
Reply to  Michaela

Songfestivalweblog.nl

Michaela
Michaela
8 months ago
Reply to  Harm Stirnberg

<3 thank you

Miguel
Miguel
8 months ago

I think it will be like Junior Eurovision this year, performances from home country.
And then again some countries will use playback / lipsync unfairly, like France/Belarus and Kazakhstan did.

Grft
Grft
8 months ago
Reply to  Miguel

Lol Barbara Pravi using playback? That would kill her performance.

eurofan
eurofan
8 months ago
Reply to  Miguel

U sure kazakhstan

Micky
Micky
8 months ago
Reply to  Miguel

Stfu with playback, no one used playback

Una
Una
8 months ago

1. “A” – highly unlikely so I’m discarding it. 2. “B” unlikely – even with an eventual proof of “c-shot” – how many people will be able to travel? Maybe the audience could consist of only Dutch and people from countries that can travel to the Netherlands. And back 🙂 3. “C” – scenario I find most likely – all measures taken for those participants that can travel to the Netherlands and all other teams involved, while the participation of those that cannot travel will be assured. 4. “D” – no comment – it will be used for sure in… Read more »

Denis
Denis
8 months ago
Reply to  Una

Option D is unlikely since that would mean every country is in lock-down in May and that is unlikely!

Danny
Danny
8 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Or just lockdown in the Netherlands, which isn’t too unlikely.

Martin
Martin
8 months ago

A 0, 01%
B 25%
C 65%
D 9,99%

My rating for the 4 Scenarios

Alex
Alex
8 months ago

I hope the Netherlands win Eurovision within 10 years so that they can host the show under normal conditions with a full arena (in Amsterdam, hopefully)

Andreu
Andreu
8 months ago

I really think they will choose the third option (C) but I wouldn’t mind if they delayed it by 2 months just so we could get option B to be a bit more likely but even then that may not be enough time or worth delaying. So I guess option C will have to work.

Colin
Colin
8 months ago

It’s likely C or maybe B. But they have to be ready for partial D if one or more delegations are unable to travel for one reason or another. Not every country has the same restrictions or the same percentage of ill people.

I just hope that whichever scenario is picked won’t cause anyone throwing a diva tantrum because “they didn’t sign-up for this”.

Azaad
Azaad
8 months ago

C without a live audience seems possible rather than full on D

Denis
Denis
8 months ago
Reply to  Azaad

Actually C would have limited audience. D is the only option without audience but it’s unlikley they will choose it since that would mean every participating country would be in lock.down in May!

Charli Cheer Up
Charli Cheer Up
8 months ago

I’m betting we’re getting scenario C considering that JESC was successful with the D scenario but since we’re talking ESC they might still push for C to happen so that the contest can be held on a large-scale that accommodates all participating countries. There’s a 50/50 chance for B since not all the countries have received vaccines. They would need to prioritize every delegation team before they can be given a greenlight to participate under scenario B in Rotterdam which I don’t see happening TBH.

Last edited 8 months ago by Charli Cheer Up
Hyunwoo
Hyunwoo
8 months ago

I think that there is no point in organizing Eurovision

Paul
Paul
8 months ago
Reply to  Hyunwoo

No. Point. Absolutely none. Why do they even bother every year??

I’m not sure this is the website for you

Oporcovo Førskoro
Oporcovo Førskoro
8 months ago
Reply to  Hyunwoo

i think tha there is no point in this comment.

Hyunwoo
Hyunwoo
8 months ago

Some people said that Scenario B, will possibly

SCENARIO B: Social distancing 46%

SCENARIO C: Travel restrictions 25%

SCENARIO A: Normal 16%

SCENARIO D: Lockdown 13%

Milanolich
Milanolich
8 months ago
Reply to  Hyunwoo

Do you really believe that scenario A has more chance of happening than D???

Hellooooo
Hellooooo
8 months ago
Reply to  Milanolich

Exactly, that’s extremely ironic, but taking into account that he said that there is no point in organizing Eurovision…

Teddie
Teddie
8 months ago

Got my vaccine already though still unable to travel almost anywhere because of the covid ban, so I guess there’s no difference for me. Hopefully they let us return the tickets to the last year’s event.

adampdh
adampdh
8 months ago
Reply to  Teddie

Yeah if you can’t go as a ticket holder they’ll refund everything

Tuvia
Tuvia
8 months ago

From the moment a country starts a widespread vaccine spree it takes at least three months before it actually goes down. Here in Israel we started in early January, and we’re still in lockdown with overfilled covid wards. Because you need 2 shots with 2 weeks inbetween and youre only immune a week after the 2nd shot. Since the old people are prioritized and get it first (as they should) it takes months until the young super spreaders are contained. I got my first shot 2 days ago, and I booked my appointment as early as it was allowed (the… Read more »

samoylover
samoylover
8 months ago

Well, they should implement the scenario E, a mix between B and D: shows from Ahoy, participants in NLD but no audience, press conference and any events in Rotterdam. I think this is the most reasonable thing for the contest and the current situation.

Daniel
Daniel
8 months ago

I just feel like, thankfully and finally, the Covid cases are starting to decline around the globe. I believe that things will look extremely well in May, with the acceleration in vaccines being produced and given to the people! I’m hoping for scenario A, of course, but I just want anything at this point!

Frisian esc
Frisian esc
8 months ago
Reply to  Daniel

Bro, in the netherlands we are only just at the beginning… Will take atleast until mid 2022 to vaccinate enough people.

Hellooooo
Hellooooo
8 months ago
Reply to  Frisian esc

In Spain if we keep this vacunation speed, we will finish in late 2023!!

Alex
Alex
8 months ago
Reply to  Daniel

Netherlands is the country with the least vaccinations at the moment.

Joe
Joe
8 months ago

As long as it’s happening, I don’t care what form it takes. Not like I could go even if I wanted to.

Wendy
Wendy
8 months ago

It’ll most likely be plan C. I know here in Australia it’s very, very hard to get permission to fly most places overseas (and even harder to get back), so assume some countries will have no choice but to perform remotely.

Either way, I’m sure the show will be great. I think JESC 2020 exceeded a lot of people’s expectations, and I assume ESC21 will in the same category 🙂

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
8 months ago

Using dialogue taken from one of my favourite TV shows…
“Wait, that’s Plan C? It sounds more like Plan F to me, as in ‘We are totally f— [loud noise].” 🙂
I’m rooting for Plan D. Videos, videos, videos.

ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
8 months ago

Once the decision is made tomorrow on which scenario to use is it irreversible or is it possible for the organizers to change the scenario if the situation changes? There is the possibility that the situation could improve and the number of cases decline significantly thus allowing more people to attend the contest.

Personally I think the organizers should wait later to decide on the scenario.

Denis
Denis
8 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

They have said the scenario can be up scaled or downscaled based on situation during March-April

Jofty
Jofty
8 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Merci Denis. I guess there is no chance (2nd year in a row) of Eurovision In Concert in April?! Oh well maybe 3rd time lucky in 2022!

Azaad
Azaad
8 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

Probably not, especially since the Netherlands is hosting this year. In these times they’d prioritise the contest over the concert.

Bear
Bear
8 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

The decision is definitely not 100% fixed; Sietse said earlier that things might be adjusted up to March/April. It’s already February, so it’s better for delegations to have some direction/expectation to work towards (which they wouldn’t have if we wait longer).

Martin
Martin
8 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

Read the article

Sabrina
Sabrina
8 months ago

If they announce something tomorrow, I guess it will be Scenario C, which I believe is the most logical choice for now (February, not May). By doing that, they would be in a comfortable position to upgrade it to B if things get better, or downgrade it to D if things get worst. It may sound pessimistic at first, but it would actually be a practical decision. If B becomes a possibility, they’ll already have a plan in motion and will have just to adapt it to fit more delegations. At the same time, by picking C they will probably… Read more »

Last edited 8 months ago by Sabrina
Erasmus
Erasmus
8 months ago

I mean the thing I don’t get is travel restrictions? Can’t they get an allowance from the country? Like sporting teams are doing, business people as well, politicians as well, so why couldn’t they.. I’m sure most countries would allow them. I understand maybe Australia, but all others could do I hope.. So I hope for a scenario B. + and also can’t these artist just go into quarantine after eurovision? I mean they are not in risk groups, so even if they get infected and stay at home it would be fine.. and just be careful overall like masks,… Read more »

Jofty
Jofty
8 months ago
Reply to  Erasmus

Exactly, these people are travelling for work after all? And if there is any doubt get some of the contestants to pose by a swimming pool in either swimwear or underwear?

Sabi
Sabi
8 months ago
Reply to  Erasmus

Also Russians can’t leave their country due much expantion of the virus and EU had put a ban to flights from Russia. I dobut that Little Big could be allowed to come to Rotterdam at ESC 2021.

Sav001
Sav001
8 months ago
Reply to  Erasmus

Australia has just allowed 1200 tennis players, coaches and other staff to come into the country for the tennis tournaments down here. Don’t see why the government wouldn’t make an exception for Montaigne to fly to Europe and then do the mandatory 14 days of quarantine once she and her team get back.

Wendy
Wendy
8 months ago
Reply to  Sav001

Was thinking this, but they also just cancelled the recent Australian Cricket Test that was going to be played in South Africa. I’m still hoping she’s allowed to go, but I think remote participation seems more likely tbh. Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
8 months ago
Reply to  Sav001

She might be allowed to fly out by the time May rolls along.

Jofty
Jofty
8 months ago
Reply to  Sav001

Or we could tell the Aussies to keep Rita Ora and send us Montaigne in exchange? (perhaps on a permanent basis)

Alex
Alex
8 months ago

well i think they realised not much will change until the rehearsals begin.

It will be a mix of C and D. Going for D is too strict. I think there will be no international fans and events but small delegations will be allowed. Pre-taped performances will be compulsory as a back-up but i think in May things will be better.

Perhaps, they will allow a number of Dutch fans to attend the shows and socially distancing.

Netherlands is very unlucky unfortunately.

Sabi
Sabi
8 months ago

Saddly i expected to be the D scenario with exeption of Dutch host entry, because already Dutch people isn’t respect the restrictions and the Dutch goverment likely will extend the restrictions up to March if the massive vaccination isn’t starts. Also will take months to vaccine the millons of Dutch people prior ESC and others Europeans countries, to then lift the fly restrictions worldwide!

Denis
Denis
8 months ago

I do think C or B with a slight overweight to B. Don’t see A or D happening, those are to extreme and unlikely.
Speaking of, I read an interview wit Sietse Bakker where he said a decision for audience could wait until April, meaning there is still hope!

Jimmy Smit
Jimmy Smit
8 months ago

Scenario A is not happening. Scenario B has been possible in the context of national finals but only for the reason that a national final doesn’t necessitate international travel by foreign artists/delegations. Considering the restrictions the Netherlands has in place, as well as the travel/quarantine restrictions elsewhere, Scenario B looks like an unrealistic scenario to plan for. Scenario C makes the most sense right now, it’s flexible and leaves room for manouvering. Scenario D would obviously be the safest option but offers the least flexibility. If this is what’s announced tomorrow then the organisers will surely be doing so with… Read more »

Candy
Candy
8 months ago

I hope it won’t be C. Having some artists perform live in the arena while others send in pre-recorded performances will only lead to injustice and resulting discussions. I’d even go as far and say it goes against the idea of unity, given that some countries will have an advantage over others.

John
John
8 months ago
Reply to  Candy

This contest will always have doubts about the true winner. There is no way for them to avoid this because of COVID. If they go with Scenario C than most small countries who don’t have large budgets will spend all of their funds on the in-country performance and will make up reasons why they can’t go to Rotterdam.

Thanos
Thanos
8 months ago

It will be C. Like someone else also mentioned they may have the possibility to implement B or D depending on the situation in May. But for now they will choose C. Honestly we have to be grateful that we will have a Eurovision this year to begin with. We must also hope that this terrible situation will be over soon and that we will all be more sensible after the pandemic than we were before!!!

Frisian esc
Frisian esc
8 months ago

Just for the record: scenario C is also without an audience right?

James
James
8 months ago
Reply to  Frisian esc

Likely similar to B, yes. But much like the case we’re seeing in Sanremo, allowing an audience would depend if health authorities give the okay signal for producers to bring in spectators.

Crystal
8 months ago
Reply to  Frisian esc

From my interpretation of the graphic, Scenario C would have a limited audience.

My guess is that C is gonna be the most likely scenario to take place, but Junior Eurovision did show us that Scenario D can be pulled off if necessary.

Denis
Denis
8 months ago
Reply to  Frisian esc

No, limited audience for C. Only D is without audience!

Esc addict
Esc addict
8 months ago

Scenario A is impossible, Scenario B or C yes because I think to have an audience of course smaller than usual is still possible, with all the socially distant rules, with masks, and with covid19 tests before. The thing is to know if there will still be travel restrictions for countries in May. If it is Scenario D, then no surprise we all have seen the jesc last year and it was great despite the pandemic, there was even an audience for the jesc, and the Ebu will do a good job again. So be happy guys cause in any… Read more »

An American ESC Fan
An American ESC Fan
8 months ago

I’m thinking C or D! Tbh at this point I will take literally any Eurovision I can get, regardless of plan

Last edited 8 months ago by An American ESC Fan
esc2021rotterdam
esc2021rotterdam
8 months ago

I think C will be chosen, A won’t be possible by May since not enough people will be vaccinated, B is kinda risky because it’s hard to know if all participants can go to Rotterdam by May, D is also risky because you can’t know how europe will look like in May while the lockdowns are supposed to end before the contest so C is the most safe decision will possiblity of upscaling to B or Downscaling to D.

Frisian esc
Frisian esc
8 months ago

Ooff, I already see my Grand final family show tickets flashing before my eyes 🙁

emilia
emilia
8 months ago

i realy hope they don’t choose D. I want all participants in The Netherlands. so i hope for B or C 🙂

Sabi
Sabi
8 months ago
Reply to  emilia

Australia and Russia delegations likely won’t travel to Rotterdam as their goverments still have their restrictions up!

Azaad
Azaad
8 months ago
Reply to  Sabi

Given that Australia let cricketeers go abroad to play in the IPL and they’re hosting sports events (they’re probably the least covid affected country competing) I think they’ll let Montaigne go to Rotterdam but she’ll have to go into a strict hotel lockdown once returning to Australia.

eurofan
eurofan
8 months ago
Reply to  Azaad

They may not because it wouldn’t be compulsory and there would need to be so much quarantine

Rasmus Bording Irlind
Rasmus Bording Irlind
8 months ago

it’ll very likely be scenario D speaking realistically. positive covid19 tests increasing and the new mutations. be grateful that we’ll get any type of eurovision this year

Donald
Donald
8 months ago

Scenario D: probable autotune

Frisian esc
Frisian esc
8 months ago
Reply to  Donald

I’m ok with everything but using autotune like in jesc this year will bother me a lot and take so much of the fun of the liveshows and eurovision in general away. I can’t imagine any real artist still wanting to compete in the future if they turn it into a karaoke and dancing competition. Very afraid of the possibility.

James
James
8 months ago
Reply to  Donald

As if that was ever an issue in recent editions where live vocals are given added vocal effects (echo, reverb, autotune, etc).

RavensHeart
RavensHeart
8 months ago

Seems obvious it will be C.

There is no real reason to pick B over C, as C is just B with the extra allowance to allow some countries to perform from home.

Plenty of tv shows are going ahead now with social distancing so can’t see why they’d pick D.

Denis
Denis
8 months ago
Reply to  RavensHeart

Why woild they choose C over B? C means some will be there on stage, others in a studio somewhere..

Hello_123
Hello_123
8 months ago

I’m Dutch and let me tell you that C is the most realistic scenario. Our government is quite hesitant when it comes to reopening the entertainment industry (the focus lies on reopening schools / universities). ESC simply doesn’t have enough of a priority. Therefore, I can’t really see a significant audience attending, perhaps only an insignificant amount of like 100-200 people. Vaccine roll-out hasn’t gone quickly either, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there were travel restrictions going into or travelling away from the Netherlands. As a Dutch fan who was lucky enough to get tickets that surely sucks, but… Read more »

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
8 months ago

Honestly, b or C are probably the most likely options at this point, but if things are worse by may it could slide down to C and D. I just don’t know

Charity Shop Sue
8 months ago

D is the safest option and I think they will choose this

Elpandras
Elpandras
8 months ago

I think they will choose B or C.
A in this point might be achieve in some countries, unfortunately The Netherlands is not one of them.
And D is ridiculous as there are delegations like the Israeli one that can come to The Netherlands 100%.
The only question in my opinion is will all the countries can come there or not
and this is the different between B or C.
I personally predict B.

Last edited 8 months ago by Elpandras
noah
noah
8 months ago

pretty sure it’s going to be C or even D 🙁 A or B seems far away

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
8 months ago

Hoping for B.