San Marino has risen to tenth favourite to win Eurovision 2021. Last Friday Senhit was the bookies’ 36th favourite to win with odds as high as 200/1. But fast-forward to Monday evening — a day after “Adrenalina” dropped — and Senhit is now sitting pretty with odds as low as 14/1.
In Eurovision a few days — and the potential of Flo Rida on stage— can clearly make a huge impact. It still isn’t clear if the “Club Can’t Handle Me” singer will make it to Rotterdam. But even without his talent on show San Marino seem poised for their best finish ever. For a time on Monday, the hype even made betting on San Marino to win Eurovision the most popular bet in the “specials” category in the UK, alongside who will become the next leader of the UK’s Conservative Party.
Eurovision 2021 betting odds: San Marino and Italy climbing
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Last Friday, on the eve of the Sanremo 2021 final, Italy was down as seventh favourite among the bookies with odds as high as 14/1. Following Måneskin‘s victory with “Zitti e buoni”, Italy has climbed to third favourite with odds as low as 5/1 at Betway. The foursome were hugely popular with the Italian public and climbed steadily in the rankings throughout the week of Sanremo. Could this momentum see them winning over Europe in the weeks and months ahead?
Higher up, Iceland’s Daði Freyr remains the early favourite to win in Rotterdam with odds as low as 11/2. He’d lost the top spot for a time to Lithuania’s The Roop and their song “Discoteque”. (But they’ve now drifted to fifth favourite with odds as high as 13/1 at SKB). The date to remember in this mix is March 13: That’s when Daði will release his 2021 entry “10 years”.
Further down the table, we have to discuss three of the most recently confirmed Eurovision 2021 entries — from Portugal, Denmark and Estonia. It’s not good news for any of them.
Portugal’s The Black Mamba is down as 29th favourite to win with “Love Is On My Side”. The odds here are as high as 169/1.
Denmark’s Dansk Melodi Grand Prix winners Fyr & Flamme also have very sizeable odds. The 80’s style bop “Øve os på hinanden” is currently 35th favourite with odds as high as 259/1.
Estonian Uku Suviste successfully defended his Eesti Laul title with “The Lucky One”, but he’s not so lucky with the bookies. He’s down as 37th favourite — ahead of only Spain, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Albania — with odds as high as 299/1.
What do you make of all this? Is San Marino one to watch? Do you think that Senhit can take things even higher? Let us know in the comments box down below!
Odds correct as of 22:00 GMT on 8th March 2021 via Oddschecker
?? Betting on San Marino's @senhitofficial to win #Eurovision is the most popular bet in the "specials" category on Oddschecker in the UK today.
?? Betting on Spain (which you can get at 299/1) is the next most popular bet.
?? Betting on Italy rounds out the Top 5. pic.twitter.com/3JRoTN6Wfv
— wiwibloggs (@wiwibloggs) March 8, 2021
We all have learned last years that Eurovision is so related to the current circumstances and politics in Europe.
And this year the country in ‘ need’ could be Ireland, that’s the way how the governments fight against problems, they don’t solve problems, they just give you reason to forget about main problem for a while.
Could you clarify what you mean here? Both what being “in need” means exactly and what that has to do with Eurovision. Thanks! 🙂
I really hope Romania wins. With the grim times we are leaving there are not many countries that would be able to hold this event as it should. But in the past years Romania has become great at holding festivals and concerts, it’s enough to take a look at their Untold or Neversea and get hyped.
The virgin Iberian Peninsula
The Chad Italian Peninsula
I think Ireland should be in top 5
I would love a small country with a happy song to win, like San Marino or Moldova, but unfortunately I have a feeling that Senhit is playing us. To put a star in the video, when you know he will not be on stage…I don’t think this ever happened. She just came out as shady. I know a lot of downvotes will come, but just think about it, to not be disappointed.
I get what you are saying
But the song just isn’t made a bop because of Flo-Rida’s brief rap. It’s a whole combination of things that give the song star quality.
I think it would still be a massive bop and a massive contender even without Flo-Rida.
Hope you are right, but she fooled EBU. Anyway, I do hope Senhit will win, I’m just having a critical thinking.
I understand, and I will never comment about Senhit ever again.
I find it really hard to pin point a ‘winner’ among the entries we have right now. With good stagings I could see France and Romania battle it out. I think Belgium is the dark horse and the wrong place can do much better than most people think.
It will be interesting next week to hear the remaining entries and to see who will join the list of potential winner entries! I’m gonna say Latvia.
I could see San Marino doing well. But top 10? Maybe, but I think the song is to scattered. To monotous. I think it works better without Flo Rida or rap, just Senhit. Right now I think it will end up between 11-15, dont think juries will rate it high
On the contrary, without Flo Rida, it would be too monotonous x) Its a nice summer bop, and aesthetics are very tasteful kitsch, which is quite original compared to some others looks from Eurovision (otherwise it really looks like your typical summer song that will get replaced by another the next year).. It could have gotten very repetitive, and just very similar to other similar songs like Hurricane, Albina, Elena or Natalia (this one actually feels scattered) without the integration of a rapper. Still..in my honest opinion, it won’t get to the top 5 ahah.
No, just your Sweden is the best, always.
Sigh.
Sigh, so everybody else can write comments and opinions about every country incuding Sweden and just state opinions but when a Swede does it must mean we think we are better than others? As opposed to just state opinions? Did I mention anything about Sweden? No, I was commenting about song. Do a negative opinion mean I think Sweden is best? Nope. How about actually comment on the song and opinion about it rather than “oh arrogant Swede”. Do you assume everybody else must think their country is much better when stating negative opinions? Or are you just that much… Read more »
Dear Denis, lämna det. Du har alltid de som vet bättre.
I wonder… How many of those entries, that are now in that top 10, will actually end in the 10 at the end of the evening…
Adrenalina, sorry to say, falls under the same category as Cleopatra and Fuego. I’ve heard that song so many times. It’s sad if a world famous singer as Flo Rida would be the reason for winning when the song is nothing out of the ordinary. If he shows up. I wondered when watching the music video if Senhit and Flo Rida did anything together at the same time. Zero chemistry. He looks edited or something.. Or maybe I’m wrong. However, this is San Marinos best song the’ve had, but it still is what it is. I have problems with seeing… Read more »
So never something really positive from you except for Sweden yeah we have understood thank you
San Marino could win! It really could. What an amazing thing that would be to see.
It would really be a big win for 3 countries – San Marino, Italy, and Sweden (the songwriters).
Sorry no, it would be for San Marino and that’s all. Why Italy would take merits of that. They are not even involved in this act. When San Marino is not good, it’s like that they aren’t even considered, italians eurofans are even usually really rude towards San Marino (and moreover if San Marino doesn’t give 12 points to Italy, as if it was an obligation) but now that they up their game suddenly they exist, they are considered, and if they won they have to share the victory with Italy, lol come on, no way it’s too easy. San… Read more »
Senhit is Italian, not from San Marino. Of course it would be a victory for Italy as well.
Ok I take it, but it would be fair to let San Marino having their momemtum as San Marino, Italy is already successful in Eurovision, Sweden too.
Yeah but Italy wants to win too like everybody, who goes to Eurovision. And it’s fair for everybody to win cuz it’s not because Italy brings quality every year that y’all can think oh it’s Italy they will always bring quality but it’s not fair for them to win blablabla. If Italy has the best song they deserve to win point. And if idk another country has the best song they deserve to win. Just vote for the country you like don’t start saying no I’m not voting for them cuz other countries have never won and they already did.… Read more »
The votes are not my point here, of course you vote for what you like and not for a country.
San Marino be gentle or we cut the water lol
Ireland is crazy low in the odds. But the fans seem to be supporting it? I don’t get it
Has to do more to the fact that they are in what would be consider the more tough semi (Semi 1) which has favourites such as Lithuania, Sweden , Cyprus, Romania , etc. So the odds of them getting through to the final seem to be low (at least historically).
What’s not to get? The “fans” aren’t the ones you need to ask. Listen to the Irish song objectively as if you are a casual Eurovision watcher and it is generic and forgettable.
But the odds don’t take in account the fans opinions, lol the eurofans opinions is the less suitable thing, they use others parameters fortunately more relevant. You really think each bookmakers come on youtube or on wiwibloggs to read reviews, opinions, reactions, polls , or on twitter on euroscoreboard, or the ogae polls, no way cause it doesn’t reflect the reality of the contest. But we should stop with the odds, ok some countries have pretty much more chances to win than the others but it doesn’t mean that it will happen absolutely, you talk about Ireland maybe she has… Read more »
Dearest Darren, don’t take those betting odds serious!
Post about the UK reveal please? Coming across biased by leaving it out.
Has there been a UK reveal to post about?
There is an article out right now.
yeeeess keep it in the boot!
As good as Italy can be and alternative I don’t see them winning the whole thing. It’s still a music style some juries and public will not put on their top list. Lordi won because of their masks and it was 100% televote at that time.
Il Volo should have won. I am still upset about that. I cannot understand how they won the popular vote but not the jury.
6th place.
“Italy is always overhyped in the betting odds and then they get an average place”
Italy has the best average rankings, behind Sweden, in the last decade..7 top 10 and 3 top 3.
Better get informed before writting
Hatari was unlistenable and was just random techno noise with BDSM aesthetics, Italy’s is a rock song with glam rock aesthetics, they are not comparable at all.
Italy has a song that could flop badly or maybe not (they won’t win Eurovision for sure, but they could be in top10 or even top 5), but they are not comparable music-wise at all with Hatari.
Obviously, bookie odds mean nothing, but just the fact that San Marino is even in the conversation to win Eurovision brings me such joy. In hindsight, I’m not sure if I like “Adrenalina” more than my longtime fave “Discoteque,” but I’m so happy for them and Senhit. I have high hopes for a strong finish in May.
All I ask is that the Italian jury not be d*cks and actually vote for their little more-than-neighbor should all go well and they make the final. Both times it’s actually happened, they went and put San Marino dead-last, and in 2014 that kept them from giving San Marino anything when the Italian televote put them sixth. They’re probably gonna go way out of left field and give 12 points to Germany or something.
Most popular bet in the “specials” category for any Eurovision bet is quite a big deal actually. Coupled with some hype on places like this and you’ve got a recipe for moving up the odds very fast, very quickly.
Both of these things have absolutely no impact on the actual likelihood of San Marino winning but they’re the reason for the odds.
With each song release, that Spain bet is looking more and more tempting.299/1 for that song is a great wager.
See, that’s going on the assumption you’re gonna get your money back, though.
Well, when you’re betting at 299/1, you’re not really assuming a win. Bookies aren’t stupid nor are they in the habit of just handing out money. 😉
I would not be offering that on Spain. I’d expect more of a 50/1 to 60/1 so that’s why it’s a great value bet.
Does anyone have hope for the U.K. entry based on recent announcement?
Cautious optimism is best, low expectations save disappointment. If its better than those then its a good surprise.
Off-topic but with all the political issues in Belarus I’m starting to question their participation in this year’s contest. What do y’all think?
They’ve been almost worryingly quiet. Honestly if they withdraw at this point I wouldn’t even be surprised.
Wouldn’t be surprised at all. Not particularly sad, either, unless their being gone is one less 12 for Manizha. (This is the ONE YEAR I excuse Azerbaijan and Belarus doing their ritual 12’s to Russia, they’ve actually earned it this time).
Who do you think among all the revealed songs so far has a chance of winning ESC21? I would say France, Italy or Lithuania.
And I think Iceland, Malta and Switzerland can join this group if they deliver!
I don’t see Lithuania securing enough jury votes .. I would say around 5th place. France could make top 10 but that’s about it
Italy is rising! Hopes are high on Switzerland, Iceland and Malta tho I’d like to see Romania or Bulgaria win
As much as I like Lithuania, I am slowly starting to think that Discoteque might not win in the end.
It’s a good song, but not a winner imo
As for Italy, don’t hate on me haha but I don’t really get the hype. Imo, it is the most disappointing Italian entry of the recent years.
I’m also doubting Lithuania being a winner this year even though it’s my number one favorite song for this year’s Eurovision. I would be ecstatic if it won, but I think On Fire had more winner vibes than Discoteque to be honest. I think it could still reach the top five, maybe 3-5th place, just not the gold medal. Even if the Roop don’t win, they could still encourage other Lithuanian artists to raise their game and aim for the top at future contests.
Potential winners at this point Lithuania, Italy, and France, sure people have hard time admitting it, hi hello hi, but yeah France is a contender to win too, out the 26 songs already revealed they are the more high in the odds, and they resist since weeks at this place, I mean it’s not for nothing. The countries that made impact in the odds this year so far and so potentially would make an impact in eurovision are, San Marino, Cyprus, France, Lithuania, Italy, Finland
If Iceland do deliver and win the contest they still don’t have a suitable venue to host .. there largest sports hall simply isn’t suitable for a modern Eurovision.. it would have worked as a venue in the 90s
Azerbaijan built a new venue for the contest. And you never know what architecture could do.
Simply wouldn’t happen in Iceland. The politics that all that to happen in Azerbaijan are the polar opposite of Iceland . Afterwards the Icelandic’s couldn’t justify the cost of it
There is a 10,000 seater indoor hall in Reykjavik no? I’m pretty sure I heard about it before.
If not, I’m sure they could “do a Copenhagen” and repurpose an old factory or hanger or something
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laugardalsh%C3%B6ll
If Valentina can host Eurovision 2022 in her backyard, everything is possible for Iceland in 2023 😀 😀