The Eurovision 2021 songs have been coming thick and fast in recent days. And amid all the gifts delivered by Eurovision, it’s Switzerland’s Gjon’s Tears who has emerged as the bookmaker’s choice to take home the victory.
But what’s more, Gjon’s Tears’ song reveal has caused a huge surge in the gambling market. A massive 57% of all recent Eurovision bets made since the reveal of “Tout l’univers” are on Switzerland to snatch the crown.
Eurovision 2021 odds: 57% of bets on Switzerland to win Eurovision
Yesterday saw one of the biggest moves in the Eurovision betting market to date, with Switzerland catapulting themselves into the number one favourite position. Before Gjon’s Tears debuted his song, Switzerland’s odds sat at around 18/1 which placed Gjon at seventh favourite to win just behind Lithuania’s The Roop.
However, when the Swiss sensation released his stirring anthem “Tout l’univers”, bookmakers quickly slashed the odds available. Within a matter of hours, Switzerland’s Eurovision odds were cut from as high as 18/1 to as short as 4/1 — increasing their chance of victory from 5.3% to 20%. Meanwhile, former favourites Iceland slipped into fifth place, after a leak of Dadi Freyr’s song “10 Years” surfaced online.
Online bettors were very quick to back Switzerland winning the crystal microphone. Since the song was uploaded to Youtube, 57% of all wagers placed on Eurovision were on Switzerland to win. In the same timeframe, bets on the United Kingdom to win also surged, with James Newman’s “Embers” accounting for 8.3% of wagers on the market.
This marks the second big betting surge within a week. Recently, bets on San Marino to win also increased massively. Senhit’s collaboration with Flo Rida on “Adrenalina” catapulted the micronation into tenth favourite to win, slashing their odds from 299/1 to 14/1 within a matter of minutes. In that timeframe, bets on Sammarinese victory accounted for 41% of all new wagers.
Additionally, odds on Italy, France and Bulgaria to win continue to shorten. “We will witness plenty of movements like this in the betting market as new songs get released”, says Sam Eaton, Head of Marketing at OddsChecker. “However, it’s interesting to see how France are slowly moving up the market. If I was to predict who would be the betting favourite 24-hours before the competition, France would be my pick.”
Eurovision 2021 odds
The OddsChecker odds are presented using the British fractional system. So for example, betting £1 on Malta to win with odds of 15/1 would win the bettor £15, for a total profit of £14. This list shows the current odds for the top ten countries most likely to win Eurovision 2021, with the country’s chance of victory in parentheses.
- Switzerland – 11/2 (12%)
- Bulgaria – 7/1 (9%)
- France – 9/1 (8%)
- Iceland – 9/1 (8%)
- Italy – 9/1 (8%)
- Sweden – 12/1 (6%)
- Lithuania – 13/1 (5%)
- Malta – 15/1 (4%)
- Cyprus – 15/1 (4%)
- San Marino – 15/1 (4%)
Odds correct as of 13:00 GMT on Thursday 11 March 2021
What do you think? Will you be placing a bet on Eurovision this year? Who do you think is the most likely to win? Let us know in the comments below.
UK MAY WIN
Serbia has the best song <3
Very respectful
I want Lithuania to win
Imagine thinking that this song sounds like Arcade
Switzerland won’t win neither will France or Lithuania
10/10 France
9/10 Lithuania, Switzerland, Albania
8/10 Finland, Ukraine, Bulgaria
7/10 Germany, Spain, Belgium, Ireland
6/10 San Marino, United Kingdom, Denmark (yes!), Romania
5/10 Israel, Netherlands, Serbia
4/10 Greece, Slovenia, Austria
3/10 Italy, Estonia, Australia
2/10 Czechia, Norway, Latvia
1/10 Portugal, Croatia, Moldova
0/10 Poland, Cyprus
Russia is 5/10, too
Switzerland is currently 3rd in my list after France and Lithuania.
12 points to Switzerland from Ireland ??????????
Gjon for the win! ??
And there’s still big songs from Iceland, Malta and Azerbaijan to come!
But Switzerland 100% and Romania is my second
…and Sweden…
nah sweden don’t have a chance this year
If Switzerland wins, then every country in future should make song which will sound like something that has already won before. I mean, what are we talking about here?!
Here’s who I’d be betting on at the moment; Switzerland: Best song in the line-up by far. Gjon is a fantastic singer (one of the best in the competition by a mile) and if they nail their staging Eurovision will be going home to Geneva next year. Lithuania: Together with Tout l’univers, Discoteque is the only song to give me instant “winner vibes” and it might have the edge over the Swiss entry because we already know what it’s going to look like on the stage. We don’t know what the Swiss act is going to look like on the… Read more »
2 things we can note, this year no countries had their odds as low as Switzerland has now so far.
France is the country who resist the more in the top since weeks now, remember it was the 3rd song revealed this year and still in the top and very high after 32 songs (33) revealed. Lithuania too.
So I don’t really know what it could mean at this point but it’s what I’ve noticed.
We will see if Bulgaria and Switzerland will resist until the day of the Grand final.
Update, Bulgaria is now first in the bets markets not overrall yet but in the markets so it really means there’s not an obvious winner, what an exciting year! Bulgaria join the countries who have made an impact in the odds this year.
Don’t fight the odds! The odds are always right!
If only it was true…
I think this will be a very open year where many countries can reach the top ten, let alone the top five if they grab the chance when we arrive in Rotterdam. I don’t think there will be a clear favorite this year – and I do believe Switzerland and Bulgaria will have to deliver good stuff in Rotterdam to do well, they can’t slack off, not with those songs in my opinion. And I do think that traditional strong countries, such as Italy, Russia, Norway, Australia, Sweden, will have to deliver great stuff to get into the top 10.… Read more »
Can somebody explain to me how they calculated the percentages? Thanks
Once again Bulgaria uses this tactic of drugging the odds to make it look like they have a real chance of winning. The whole thing is getting ridiculous, after the thud with Equinox I thought they would stop, but this year they will do worse? I don’t think that song even has a chance of making the top 10, let alone winning!
You know odds respond to money placed with complex algorithms to near guarantee oddsmakers get a set profit margin? How much money do you think Bulgaria is dumping on the market for odds publicity, which proves absolutely nothing? Before the contests in past years, Moltiva was 3rd favourite, Yohanna was predicted to be near the bottom of the table, Amaury Vasilli and Getter Jaani were predicted 1st and 2nd, Conchita was 15th with Aram MP3 first, Jamala was predicted 6th her year. The odds mean nothing until the week of the show itself! How silly to say this is Bulgaria… Read more »
Yes, or Sweden, always on top 6 every year, no matter what.
But Sweden actually ranks top 7 every year no matter what?
Keep living in your naive dreams, babe.
You sound like a conspiracy nut, not some enlightened scholar to the dark underbelly of eurovision odds fixing. I just hope that you understand that trying to brush off the actual facts about betting markets.
Tears wont win because he didnt deserve it. Italy and Sweden have talented performers.
imagine wasting money on gambling tho
Gambling on Bulgaria is really a waste. How can it be second ? How could this song win over Gjon’s one ? Makes more sense people betting on uptempos alternative.
Why is Armenia still on the betting odds? Something is sort of inaccurate there…
Now it’s time to bet on other countries and get more money haha.. I don’t think he is the winner
Even rehearsals won’t say that much.
We’ll need to wait until live performances.
And??
Bettors can say whatever they want…
Switzerland won’t win.
And wait Malta and Sweden darlings!
What makes you so sure Switzerland won’t win?
Belarussian song also got deleted by Eurovision YouTube channel
This does put a smile on my face.
In other news:
Looks like Belarus are out
Do you mean the artist or the Broadcaster?
Greece is so unlucky because the release time of their song was the same with the Swiss one and the official videoclip being shared in the same time when Bulgaria was trying to choose their song and she got bashed in the odds.
If she had released it just one day ago, or better, on the Super Saturday, she would be at least over Cyprus position.
Nowthey just have to proove their song’s value in the rehearsals, just like UK has to do
The Greek song is lucky to even be ranked that high
I like Switzerland it’s currently my number 8, but everything about this screams fan hype. It’s not THAT good.
Though I do think the winner will come from that Top 10 bookies list you have.
In saying that, I won’t be sad or upset if Switzerland win. They would be a worthy winner and it would be nice to see Eurovision return to his homeland. But I just think it’s fan hype here.
It’s a very pretty song, I’ll be happy if it does win.
What’s with the dislikes, this is ridiculous
omg Belarus might be abt to be disqualified. we love to see it
I don’t think that any of the big favorites are going to win. I wish for a female pop banger like loco loco or tick tock, but I think this wont happen
yeah, samantha tina!
Hopefully, it won’t happen or next year we will have only uptemo songs, even worse than this year!
Confirmed. Belarus on the brink of disqualification.
Any source?
Eurovision website and page on Facebook. They’ve requested a change in the song. Failure will mean disqualification.
https://www.facebook.com/8419133006/posts/10159160038498007/
That’s the best news of the day
I’m crazy about gjon and his song!!! that song is a MASTERPIECE! Gjon is definitely my winner this year.
I totally agree. That song is a compliment to music and the French language.
Deserved.
Well deserved, i love this year’s song a lot more than previous.
deserved