57% of all new bets are on Switzerland to win Eurovision with Gjon's Tears, while the UK's James Newman also climbs

The Eurovision 2021 songs have been coming thick and fast in recent days. And amid all the gifts delivered by Eurovision, it’s Switzerland’s Gjon’s Tears who has emerged as the bookmaker’s choice to take home the victory.

But what’s more, Gjon’s Tears’ song reveal has caused a huge surge in the gambling market. A massive 57% of all recent Eurovision bets made since the reveal of “Tout l’univers” are on Switzerland to snatch the crown.

Eurovision 2021 odds: 57% of bets on Switzerland to win Eurovision

Yesterday saw one of the biggest moves in the Eurovision betting market to date, with Switzerland catapulting themselves into the number one favourite position. Before Gjon’s Tears debuted his song, Switzerland’s odds sat at around 18/1 which placed Gjon at seventh favourite to win just behind Lithuania’s The Roop.

However, when the Swiss sensation released his stirring anthem “Tout l’univers”,  bookmakers quickly slashed the odds available. Within a matter of hours, Switzerland’s Eurovision odds were cut from as high as 18/1 to as short as 4/1 — increasing their chance of victory from 5.3% to 20%. Meanwhile, former favourites Iceland slipped into fifth place, after a leak of Dadi Freyr’s song “10 Years” surfaced online.

Online bettors were very quick to back Switzerland winning the crystal microphone. Since the song was uploaded to Youtube, 57% of all wagers placed on Eurovision were on Switzerland to win. In the same timeframe, bets on the United Kingdom to win also surged, with James Newman’s “Embers” accounting for 8.3% of wagers on the market.

This marks the second big betting surge within a week. Recently, bets on San Marino to win also increased massively. Senhit’s collaboration with Flo Rida on “Adrenalina” catapulted the micronation into tenth favourite to win, slashing their odds from 299/1 to 14/1 within a matter of minutes. In that timeframe, bets on Sammarinese victory accounted for 41% of all new wagers.

Additionally, odds on Italy, France and Bulgaria to win continue to shorten. “We will witness plenty of movements like this in the betting market as new songs get released”, says Sam Eaton, Head of Marketing at OddsChecker. “However, it’s interesting to see how France are slowly moving up the market. If I was to predict who would be the betting favourite 24-hours before the competition, France would be my pick.”

Eurovision 2021 odds

The OddsChecker odds are presented using the British fractional system. So for example, betting £1 on Malta to win with odds of 15/1 would win the bettor £15, for a total profit of £14. This list shows the current odds for the top ten countries most likely to win Eurovision 2021, with the country’s chance of victory in parentheses.

  1. Switzerland – 11/2 (12%)
  2. Bulgaria – 7/1 (9%)
  3. France – 9/1 (8%)
  4. Iceland – 9/1 (8%)
  5. Italy – 9/1 (8%)
  6. Sweden – 12/1 (6%)
  7. Lithuania – 13/1 (5%)
  8. Malta – 15/1 (4%)
  9. Cyprus – 15/1 (4%)
  10. San Marino – 15/1 (4%)

Odds correct as of 13:00 GMT on Thursday 11 March 2021

What do you think? Will you be placing a bet on Eurovision this year? Who do you think is the most likely to win? Let us know in the comments below. 

Read more Eurovision 2021 odds news here

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andrew.d.mullen Mullen
andrew.d.mullen Mullen
1 month ago

UK MAY WIN

ellybrit
ellybrit
1 month ago

Serbia has the best song <3

Last edited 1 month ago by ellybrit
Philou
Philou
1 month ago

Very respectful

Karla
1 month ago

I want Lithuania to win

damdan
damdan
1 month ago

Imagine thinking that this song sounds like Arcade

Lulu
1 month ago

Switzerland won’t win neither will France or Lithuania

Mr X
Mr X
1 month ago

10/10 France
9/10 Lithuania, Switzerland, Albania
8/10 Finland, Ukraine, Bulgaria
7/10 Germany, Spain, Belgium, Ireland
6/10 San Marino, United Kingdom, Denmark (yes!), Romania
5/10 Israel, Netherlands, Serbia
4/10 Greece, Slovenia, Austria
3/10 Italy, Estonia, Australia
2/10 Czechia, Norway, Latvia
1/10 Portugal, Croatia, Moldova
0/10 Poland, Cyprus

Mr X
Mr X
1 month ago
Reply to  Mr X

Russia is 5/10, too

Mr X
Mr X
1 month ago

Switzerland is currently 3rd in my list after France and Lithuania.

Nayhan
Nayhan
1 month ago

12 points to Switzerland from Ireland ??????????

Marion
1 month ago

Gjon for the win! ??

Melania Trump
Melania Trump
1 month ago

And there’s still big songs from Iceland, Malta and Azerbaijan to come!

But Switzerland 100% and Romania is my second

ESC 2021
1 month ago
Reply to  Melania Trump

…and Sweden…

Fionn
Fionn
1 month ago
Reply to  ESC 2021

nah sweden don’t have a chance this year

Someone
Someone
1 month ago

If Switzerland wins, then every country in future should make song which will sound like something that has already won before. I mean, what are we talking about here?!

Deven O'Kearney
Deven O'Kearney
1 month ago

Here’s who I’d be betting on at the moment; Switzerland: Best song in the line-up by far. Gjon is a fantastic singer (one of the best in the competition by a mile) and if they nail their staging Eurovision will be going home to Geneva next year. Lithuania: Together with Tout l’univers, Discoteque is the only song to give me instant “winner vibes” and it might have the edge over the Swiss entry because we already know what it’s going to look like on the stage. We don’t know what the Swiss act is going to look like on the… Read more »

Esc addict
Esc addict
1 month ago

2 things we can note, this year no countries had their odds as low as Switzerland has now so far.
France is the country who resist the more in the top since weeks now, remember it was the 3rd song revealed this year and still in the top and very high after 32 songs (33) revealed. Lithuania too.
So I don’t really know what it could mean at this point but it’s what I’ve noticed.
We will see if Bulgaria and Switzerland will resist until the day of the Grand final.

Last edited 1 month ago by Esc addict
Esc addict
Esc addict
1 month ago
Reply to  Esc addict

Update, Bulgaria is now first in the bets markets not overrall yet but in the markets so it really means there’s not an obvious winner, what an exciting year! Bulgaria join the countries who have made an impact in the odds this year.

Last edited 1 month ago by Esc addict
gilpgilpgilp
gilpgilpgilp
1 month ago

Don’t fight the odds! The odds are always right!

Esc addict
Esc addict
1 month ago
Reply to  gilpgilpgilp

If only it was true…

Last edited 1 month ago by Esc addict
Preuss
Preuss
1 month ago

I think this will be a very open year where many countries can reach the top ten, let alone the top five if they grab the chance when we arrive in Rotterdam. I don’t think there will be a clear favorite this year – and I do believe Switzerland and Bulgaria will have to deliver good stuff in Rotterdam to do well, they can’t slack off, not with those songs in my opinion. And I do think that traditional strong countries, such as Italy, Russia, Norway, Australia, Sweden, will have to deliver great stuff to get into the top 10.… Read more »

nick
nick
1 month ago

Can somebody explain to me how they calculated the percentages? Thanks

Euromess
Euromess
1 month ago

Once again Bulgaria uses this tactic of drugging the odds to make it look like they have a real chance of winning. The whole thing is getting ridiculous, after the thud with Equinox I thought they would stop, but this year they will do worse? I don’t think that song even has a chance of making the top 10, let alone winning!

Mr Vanilla Bean
Mr Vanilla Bean
1 month ago
Reply to  Euromess

I love that phrase, “drugging the odds”. Good one!

Zisk
Zisk
1 month ago
Reply to  Euromess

You know odds respond to money placed with complex algorithms to near guarantee oddsmakers get a set profit margin? How much money do you think Bulgaria is dumping on the market for odds publicity, which proves absolutely nothing? Before the contests in past years, Moltiva was 3rd favourite, Yohanna was predicted to be near the bottom of the table, Amaury Vasilli and Getter Jaani were predicted 1st and 2nd, Conchita was 15th with Aram MP3 first, Jamala was predicted 6th her year. The odds mean nothing until the week of the show itself! How silly to say this is Bulgaria… Read more »

raspadinha
raspadinha
1 month ago
Reply to  Zisk

Yes, or Sweden, always on top 6 every year, no matter what.

Giolo
Giolo
1 month ago
Reply to  raspadinha

But Sweden actually ranks top 7 every year no matter what?

Euromess
Euromess
1 month ago
Reply to  Zisk

Keep living in your naive dreams, babe.

Zisk
Zisk
1 month ago
Reply to  Euromess

You sound like a conspiracy nut, not some enlightened scholar to the dark underbelly of eurovision odds fixing. I just hope that you understand that trying to brush off the actual facts about betting markets.

Wami
Wami
1 month ago

Tears wont win because he didnt deserve it. Italy and Sweden have talented performers.

Polegend Godgarina
Polegend Godgarina
1 month ago

imagine wasting money on gambling tho

Nicolas
Nicolas
1 month ago

Gambling on Bulgaria is really a waste. How can it be second ? How could this song win over Gjon’s one ? Makes more sense people betting on uptempos alternative.

Kirby
Kirby
1 month ago

Why is Armenia still on the betting odds? Something is sort of inaccurate there…

Alo
Alo
1 month ago

Now it’s time to bet on other countries and get more money haha.. I don’t think he is the winner

Eurofan
Eurofan
1 month ago

And??
Bettors can say whatever they want…
Switzerland won’t win.
And wait Malta and Sweden darlings!

Catriona Colville
Catriona Colville
1 month ago
Reply to  Eurofan

What makes you so sure Switzerland won’t win?

Vytautas
Vytautas
1 month ago

Kinda remind me of Coronavirus: wave after wave after wave. We had one wave with France, we had one wave with Lithuania, we had one wave with San Marino, we had one wave with Italy, we have another wave with Switzerland. It’s really that simple – we won’t be able to guess the real contenders before May rehearsals as some songs are very much linked with the Covid situation, some are universal, some we don’t know how they will sound live on stage, most we don’t know about final visualizations. One thing is clear even now though – somebody will… Read more »

Alex
Alex
1 month ago
Reply to  Vytautas

Even rehearsals won’t say that much.
We’ll need to wait until live performances.

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
1 month ago

Belarussian song also got deleted by Eurovision YouTube channel

Honesty
Honesty
1 month ago
Reply to  notyourtoy

This does put a smile on my face.

Darren
Darren
1 month ago

In other news:

Looks like Belarus are out

Last edited 1 month ago by Darren
Saul Browne
1 month ago
Reply to  Darren

Do you mean the artist or the Broadcaster?

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
1 month ago

Greece is so unlucky because the release time of their song was the same with the Swiss one and the official videoclip being shared in the same time when Bulgaria was trying to choose their song and she got bashed in the odds.

If she had released it just one day ago, or better, on the Super Saturday, she would be at least over Cyprus position.

Nowthey just have to proove their song’s value in the rehearsals, just like UK has to do

Danny
Danny
1 month ago
Reply to  notyourtoy

The Greek song is lucky to even be ranked that high

Darren
Darren
1 month ago

I like Switzerland it’s currently my number 8, but everything about this screams fan hype. It’s not THAT good.
Though I do think the winner will come from that Top 10 bookies list you have.

In saying that, I won’t be sad or upset if Switzerland win. They would be a worthy winner and it would be nice to see Eurovision return to his homeland. But I just think it’s fan hype here.

Anhel
Anhel
1 month ago

It’s a very pretty song, I’ll be happy if it does win.

Anhel
Anhel
1 month ago
Reply to  Anhel

What’s with the dislikes, this is ridiculous

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
1 month ago

omg Belarus might be abt to be disqualified. we love to see it

Sankseniva
Sankseniva
1 month ago

I don’t think that any of the big favorites are going to win. I wish for a female pop banger like loco loco or tick tock, but I think this wont happen

Michaela Radová
Michaela Radová
1 month ago
Reply to  Sankseniva

yeah, samantha tina!

Giolo
Giolo
1 month ago
Reply to  Sankseniva

Hopefully, it won’t happen or next year we will have only uptemo songs, even worse than this year!

Benny Hill
1 month ago

Confirmed. Belarus on the brink of disqualification.

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
1 month ago
Reply to  Benny Hill

Any source?

Benny Hill
1 month ago
Reply to  notyourtoy

Eurovision website and page on Facebook. They’ve requested a change in the song. Failure will mean disqualification.

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
1 month ago
Reply to  Benny Hill

That’s the best news of the day

Alonso
Alonso
1 month ago

I’m crazy about gjon and his song!!! that song is a MASTERPIECE! Gjon is definitely my winner this year.

Marion
1 month ago
Reply to  Alonso

I totally agree. That song is a compliment to music and the French language.

onetwo
onetwo
1 month ago

Deserved.

Honesty
Honesty
1 month ago

Well deserved, i love this year’s song a lot more than previous.

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
1 month ago

deserved