Eurovision 2021 is the year — and returning artists are coming back stronger than ever. Semi-Final 2 of Eurovision 2021 features all but five of the countries represented by performers from last year. And the singers who conquered the bookies table the first time around are back at it again. Gjon’s Tears is the clear favourite to win the second semi-final, with last year’s overall favourite Victoria in second.

Eurovision Semi-Final 2 Odds: Switzerland is the bookies’ favourite to win

Since the release of the French ballad “Tout l’univers”, the bookies have been eating up Switzerland. While Malta may have only just eclipsed them as the overall favourite to win, Switzerland are still well ahead in the second semi-final. The bookies have them as low as 31/21, indicating the Alpine nation will have no problem with their second consecutive qualification.

Sitting just under 3/1 to win the second semi-final is Bulgaria. Victoria and her emotional ballad “Growing Up Is Getting Old” may not be sending out the shockwaves her previous offering did, but it is still highly favoured to challenge for a top spot. With promises of big staging, the young singer may yet sneak ahead in weeks to come.

Third on the list, at 5/1, is Iceland. Daði og Gagnamagnið went for disco again with their song “10 Years”. Again, it isn’t receiving the hype their song last year did, but they are on a wave of viral popularity and can expect a lot of support. Don’t be surprised if that translates to shortening of the odds later in the season.

Sitting at fourth are Finland. Newcomers Blind Channel defeated the winner of last year’s UMK Aksel to resoundingly take the ticket to Rotterdam this year. The post-hardcore band will certainly stand out from the rest this May. And at join fifth are San Marino and Greece. Senhit and Stefania are both back with arguably better songs.

Conversely, the countries that are considered the least likely to win the semi-final are Serbia, Portugal, Georgia, Estonia, Denmark, Czech Republic, Austria and Albania. All these songs are at 27/1. However, it is still very early on in the Eurovision marathon and the draw is still yet to be announced. Later on, we can expect big shifts in the odds with maybe some surprise favourites. Stay tuned!

Eurovision 2021 Odds: Semi-Final Two Winner

  1. Switzerland – 31/21
  2. Bulgaria – 14/5
  3. Iceland – 5/1
  4. Finland – 34/5
  5. San Marino – 23/2
  6. Greece – 23/2
  7. Poland – 37/2
  8. Moldova – 37/2
  9. Latvia – 23/1
  10. Serbia – 27/1
  11. Portugal – 27/1
  12. Georgia – 27/1
  13. Estonia – 27/1
  14. Denmark – 27/1
  15. Czech Republic – 27/1
  16. Austria – 27/1
  17. Albania – 27/1

Eurovision 2021: Semi-Final 2 Odds to qualify

Of course the odds to win the second semi-final don’t align with the odds to qualify. The following table shows the countries considered the most likely to advance to the grand final (listed by the best betting odds ). If the bookies have it right, then the 10 countries advancing to the final are: Switzerland, Bulgaria, Iceland, Finland, Greece Moldova, San Marino, Poland, Austria and Portugal. 

That means the bookies think Serbia, Latvia, Albania, Estonia, Denmark, Georgia, and Czech Republic are out.

  1. Switzerland – 1/100
  2. Bulgaria – 1/16
  3. Iceland – 1/10
  4. Finland – 1/9
  5. Greece – 1/6
  6. Moldova – 1/5
  7. San Marino – 1/4
  8. Poland – 4/7
  9. Austria – 4/7
  10. Portugal – 5/6
  11. Serbia – 9/10
  12. Latvia – 13/10
  13. Albania – 7/5
  14. Estonia – 48/29
  15. Denmark – 17/10
  16. Georgia – 13/7
  17. Czech Republic – 19/10

Odds via Oddschecker

Do you agree with the odds? Do you expect heavy movement in the days ahead? Who do you think will win the second semi-final? Let us know down below!

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
37 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
AndrESC
AndrESC
7 months ago

I see Switzerland, Bulgaria, Finland, Iceland, Greece, San Marino, Portugal for sure in the Final. The other 3 spots could be different from prediction here. Poland, Austria, Moldova are not so strong and may have big competition from Albania and Serbia and maybe even Latvia.

Vicky
Vicky
7 months ago

That would be very unimaginitve winner……

Caroline
Caroline
8 months ago

I’m just waiting for everyone to realise what a beautiful tune Portugal is showcasing this year! Fab song, great vocals and a very good solo guitar piece too. I think it’s the dark horse of the competition.

Mark
Mark
8 months ago

I think Gjon would have to have a total vocal collapse to not win this semi. I can’t see any other country getting more votes as they all have their weak points. He is superb live: utterly reliable and he has great atmospheric presence. He will have tougher opposition in the final, from Malta and Italy, for sure.

Wami
Wami
8 months ago
Reply to  Mark

He is very weak, zero stage presence and zero charisma.

Wami
Wami
8 months ago

Tears is live very weak. Destiny won Xfactor, Maneskin won Sanremo, Barbara Pravi won preselection in France. And Tears? No thank you, next

Amy Bee
Amy Bee
8 months ago

If Gjon delivers his vocals and the staging is nice, then surely Switzerland will be the winner of this Semi by far (and hopefully in the grand final he will end up in the top 3) I don‘t see Portugal qualifying though and Austria most likely will also struggle..

Jacob S
Jacob S
8 months ago

bookies are so funny putting poland, austria, and portugal through rather than serbia, latvia, and albania. SO FUNNY!

Giolo
Giolo
8 months ago
Reply to  Jacob S

Latvia won’t qualify, Austria probably will

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
8 months ago

I’m sure that safe qualifiers are: Switzerland – They are probably going to win jury votes and they can also win televotes if Gjon impresses us, something that he will probably do. He is my personal favourite in the whole contest, and not only my favourite. So he will bring the best Swiss result in the 21st century for sure, even if he doesn’t win at the end. Bulgaria – This is other one of the contenders to win the jury vote. A MAGICAL song that is really touching. I don’t have to say more about that. Iceland – Their… Read more »

Cai1995
Cai1995
8 months ago

Personally think running order isn’t a huge thing in the semis, I only think the running order matters in the final. I think Moldova will definitely be in the finals while Serbia is a borderline 8-12 place dependant on the juries.

Moldova
Bulgaria
Serbia
San Marino
Latvia
Finland
Albania
Greece
Switzerland

then Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Iceland(songs not as good this year), Czech Republic, Austria, Portugal will fight it out for the last stop my bests on Iceland

with Georgia being Last

Kosey
Kosey
8 months ago

If you analyse the qualification odds, then it’s clear the bookies have no idea who is going through because they are all so close. Less than 2/1 for the outsider (Czechia) is exceptionally short odds. Moldova is the only one that looks unusually short odds for me, I think the other 6 of the first 7 are pretty much guaranteed to qualify. It is then 4 from 11 and I honestly think it could be any 4 – I have said all along that Denmark will qualify and I still think that – there are loads of slow songs in… Read more »

Michael Green
Michael Green
8 months ago

There are too many female pop songs trying To be better than The others. What will happen is that in The moment of the voting some will completelly crash. Since Moldova and Serbia are in the first half, these are two candidates to be out of the final. Finland and Latvia aren’t for everyone’s taste so the juries might push down. Poland, Albania, Portugal, Austria, Georgia and Czech Republic don’t have any hype. And Denmark and Estonia are a lot depending on their place in the show. So for now sure qualifyers are Switzerland and Bulgaria (because they are in… Read more »

Last edited 8 months ago by Michael Green
PP77
PP77
8 months ago

100 % in final
1.Switzerland
2.Bulgaria
3.Iceland
4.Finland

80 % in final
1.Greece
2.San Marino
3.Moldova

60% in final
1.Latvia
2.Estonia
3.Denmark
4.Austria
5.Serbia

40 % in final
1.Poland
2.Czech Republic
3.Albania
4.Georgia
5.Portugal

Coco
Coco
8 months ago
Reply to  PP77

Denmark in the final? In what univers?

PP77
PP77
8 months ago
Reply to  Coco

2 countries in my prediction 60 % in final will stay in semi. I think Serbia and Latvia will be out . And Estonia thank to televote and Austria, Denmark thanks to juries will be in final.

Coco
Coco
8 months ago

What favorites do you have here? You tube tops are just how I think. Switzerland and Bulgaria are almost out of final. Unpredictable year.

Tina
Tina
8 months ago

After the first rehearsals these odds will change completely. Don’t be surprised to see some of those early favorites being pushed down the odds, while some non-q (like Serbia for eg.) shining at the top of these unreliable bookies rankings 😀 Switzerland and Bulgaria might slip drasticaly if they end up with boring, way too simple stage performances unfortunately. Also, Bulgaria is already seen as possible non qualifier, with mediocre views, no meter ESC fans are exploding here with their support lol

Last edited 8 months ago by Tina
Jackson
Jackson
8 months ago
Reply to  Tina

I completely agree! Bulgaria will be Iceland of 2016, loved by esc fans but not by the general public, mark my words!

Alex
Alex
8 months ago
Reply to  Tina

Simple stage performance is not bad or boring per se. Depends on the artist.
It’s never like a formula or maths

Alex
Alex
8 months ago
Reply to  Tina

The Bulgarian song was uploaded 3 times. Still no a lot of views, but Bulgaria doesn’t care at all for Eurovision this year. Usually many of the views at this point are from the own country, so your opinion is bias and totally considering your taste!

Alex
Alex
8 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Dislike as much as you want, the song was not even in trending! No views from the Bulgarians was what i meant……. toxic people here!

Stan
Stan
8 months ago
Reply to  Tina

The views means nothing! For example: Equinox – Bones (almost 11 million views14 place); Michela – Chameleon (almost 15 million views – also 14 place). 😉

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
8 months ago

These odds haven’t taken proper shape yet because there is little-to-none betting activity on SF qualifiers in March, hence why a load of countries are lumped together with similar looking odds.
In reality, Serbia and Czech Rep are much more likely to qualify than Poland or Latvia, based on both past results and their actual songs this year.

acp
acp
8 months ago

I honestly think that Serbia, Albania and Latvia have a bigger chance to qualify than Poland, Portugal and Austria. Although I do think that Portugal may be a surprise qualifier.

Luca
Luca
8 months ago
Reply to  acp

I agree, without the Portugal thing hahah

Michael Green
Michael Green
8 months ago
Reply to  Luca

I agree without the Poland thing…

Luca
Luca
8 months ago

You can disagree me, but I haven’t seen a funnier qualification prediction. What are these odds, who made this?! hahahahah

MYY
MYY
8 months ago

I can not really see Portugal, Poland and Austria qualifying. Of course, everything will change after the rehearsals, but as for now, they are definitely out imo. I also think that Czech Republic will surprise in a good way and rise in the odds once the rehearsals begin. Another country that could qualify is Albania. She is working with SJB (not that it means an automatic qualification), but I really do think that the revamp lifted the song up. Finally, I don’t say that it will definitely happen, but there is a high risk that not all uptempo songs will… Read more »

Stephanie
Stephanie
8 months ago

Bulgaria, Moldova, Poland, Serbia… I don’t get it!!!!

Dawid
Dawid
8 months ago
Reply to  Stephanie

Are you for real? Bulgaria and Moldova are basically given. Serbia is has qualified with worse songs. Poland is up there just because some people think that diaspora will vote on whatever as long as it’s from Poland (even though I haven’t seen anyone in Poland, other than broadcaster saying it’s a good choice).

Stephanie
Stephanie
8 months ago
Reply to  Dawid

If you believe that all mediocre popsongs will qualify… you might be surprised on the evening itself!

Dawid
Dawid
8 months ago
Reply to  Stephanie

Moldova will get support from eastern block and bunch of teens and eldery people will vote Bulgaria. Serbia is a toss up. It’s not a believe, its obvious they will qualify. Im talking about 2 countries that you mentioned as non qualifiers

Stephanie
Stephanie
8 months ago
Reply to  Dawid

You have to read what it says. I haven’t said anywhere that they will not make it to the final, but I have said that I won’t understand if they will qualify.. That’s a difference… No?

Leo
Leo
8 months ago

Austria, Portugal and Poland… qualifying? Umm no

IceDragon
8 months ago
Reply to  Leo

Ikr, I hope for Czech Republic, Serbia and Albania instead

Jo.
Jo.
8 months ago

Czech Republic DEAD LAST to qualify and 3rd to last to win????????? what a joke!