Eurovision 2021 Semi Final One Songs

The following is a guest post from Patrick Flynn, an analyst at SmarketsSmarkets is a betting exchange (also known as a prediction market), where odds move based on customers’ betting and trading activity, rather than being opaquely set by a bookmaker trying to maximise profits. You can visit the Smarkets Eurovision 2021 betting page hereThe opinions expressed below are those of the author.

Eurovision 2021: Smarkets betting analyst on Semi-Final 1 qualification

So here we are! After nearly two years, Eurovision season is finally upon us once more, and so too are the Eurovision betting markets. At Smarkets, we’re proud to say that this year we have a bigger Eurovision offering than ever before, and I am delighted to be previewing the semi-finals for Wiwibloggs using our data (with a healthy dose of my own opinions for added measure).

I’ve been predicting Eurovision (or trying to, at least) in some form or another for almost 10 years now, and I have to say that the first semi-final this year is among the hardest I’ve encountered. Not only is it a strong one, but with very few actual live performances to go off due to the coronavirus pandemic, there are many unpredictable factors at play. That being said, let’s kick this pre-rehearsal preview off with the first entry, Lithuania…

Lithuania

Semi-final win chance: 7% / Qualification chance: 87% / Final win chance: 5%

Lithuania’s “Discoteque” is the third favourite to win this semi-final, a feat only achieved by a show opener once in Eurovision semi-final history (answers in the comments). Lithuania shouldn’t have too many issues qualifying this year, especially as they have a very likely 12 points in the televote bag from both Ireland and Norway. I suspect The Roop will fare pretty well with the public, but I think this entry could potentially struggle with the jury, and I don’t personally see it as a Eurovision winner. Sorry guys.

Slovenia

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 21% / Final win chance: 0.1%

Slovenia ranks towards the bottom of the list of likely qualifiers on our market, which is a shame as this isn’t a bad song. Unfortunately for Ana Soklič, she’s been given the dreaded second-place slot in the running order which is likely to bury this entry. I suspect “Amen” will need a pretty hefty jury haul to qualify, and while I don’t think that’s completely out of the question, it remains unlikely, as the odds indicate.

Russia

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 76% / Final win chance: 1%

While the prediction markets have Russia among the 10 most likely qualifiers, I think their qualification chances are somewhat overestimated. Russia probably has enough allies in the semi-final to be in the televote top 10 (despite a relatively weak song by their standards), and while Manizha’s entry deserves points for originality, I personally can’t see the juries warming to this. Russia has a great qualification record, yes, but failing to qualify is not out of the question (as we saw in 2018), with the new voting system introduced in 2016 placing greater importance on doing well with both the televote and the jury. I think the expulsion of Belarus from this semi-final was a big blow for Manizha, meaning she will lose out on a good 15+ points from Russia’s close neighbour. While I can absolutely see a scenario in which this qualifies, if I had to pick one way or the other right now, I’d say “Russian Woman” will miss out on a final spot.

Sweden

Semi-final win chance: 18% / Qualification chance: 89% / Final win chance: 5%

Tusse is the second-favourite to win this semi-final, and I don’t have that much to add. “Voices” is a great song heightened by its live performance, and is a typically polished entry from Sweden, which should score very highly with the juries. These odds look broadly correct to me.

Australia

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 32% / Final win chance: 0.2%

Australia is a very difficult one to predict, given that Montaigne won’t be able to travel to Rotterdam to perform, so Australia will be relying on their pre-recorded “live on tape” performance. Montaigne’s qualification chances will depend on a good stage show, for which I think the song has a lot of potential. With the live on tape recording, however, it remains to be seen how much time and effort will have been spent on recreating whatever the Australian delegation had planned for Rotterdam, so I do have some doubts about the staging potential here. On the flip side, the absence of in-person staging may help the entry stand out, and its contemporary, hyperpop-infused sound may endear it to the juries despite Australia’s lack of televote allies. At the moment, I see this as borderline, but marginally more likely to miss out.

North Macedonia

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 19% / Final win chance: 0.1%

At this stage North Macedonia doesn’t look like a likely qualifier, but with Vasil likely to receive at least some televote points from Slovenia and Croatia, it’s possible “Here I Stand” receives enough points from the jury to sneak through. A 20% chance of qualification seems like a decent outside bet if Vasil gives a good vocal performance on the night.

Ireland

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 30% / Final win chance: 0.3%

Ireland only ranks above North Macedonia and Slovenia in our “to qualify” market. This isn’t a bad entry at all, but unfortunately for Lesley Roy, this is a strong semi-final and I suspect the entry may get lost in the crowd. A 30% chance of qualification seems about right.

Cyprus

Semi-final win chance: 4% / Qualification chance: 84% / Final win chance: 2%

Cyprus have completed their trilogy of Mediterranean summer bops this year with “El Diablo”, and while this doesn’t quite compare to the heat of “Fuego”, it’s still pretty spicy and shouldn’t struggle to qualify. Elena Tsagrinou has shown some solid vocals in live performances, so the song should have cross appeal for both the televote and jury. I can certainly see a top-five finish for Cyprus in this semi-final.

Norway

Semi-final win chance: 3% / Qualification chance: 74% / Final win chance: 3%

I have to admit, I’ve done a total 180 with this song, going from “how did this beat Keiino?!” to “I unironically really like this” in less than a month. In my time predicting Eurovision, I’ve occasionally been let down by failing to properly consider entries that might be popular with kids (I’m thinking Norway 2018, Denmark 2018 and Austria 2016), and I think “Fallen Angel” fits that mould. The staging gives the entry a novelty factor which will help it stand out in a strong semi-final, but it’s also a very catchy pop song (if a tiny bit dated). I don’t expect this to finish too highly on the juries’ leaderboard, but I think Tix has the potential to shock with how well he does with the televote.

Croatia

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 69% / Final win chance: 1%

Croatia occupies the 10th spot in our qualification market, but with five solo women-led pop songs in the final nine slots of this semi-final, I just can’t see them all qualifying. I think this a good song, but may be the most likely candidate of the five to miss out. This could be a decent bet to not qualify.

Belgium

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 54% / Final win chance: 1%

I may be a little biased as this song is one of my favourites this year, but I’d argue “The Wrong Place” is the most underrated entry of the night, if not the entire contest. It’s a well-written, radio-friendly track which should be catnip for the juries, and I think Hooverphonic are as strong a contender as any to top the jury vote in the first semi-final. With some good staging, I think Belgium has the potential to do very well indeed. Needless to say, backing them to qualify at just over 50% seems like a steal to me. Alternatively, you can trade at 11% for Hooverphonic to top the jury vote in the first semi-final, or if you fancy them to win the whole contest (or even if you think it’s worth going in now to trade out later), “The Wrong Place” is available to back at just 1% on Smarkets.

Israel

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 54% / Final win chance: 1%

Occupying 11th place in the semi-final odds, Israel may be battling Croatia for that final qualification spot. While I’m not massively confident in “Set Me Free” being among the televote top 10, I think its contemporary, radio-friendly sound (highly reminiscent of Dua Lipa’s “Levitating”) should be received pretty well by the juries and potentially see it through.

Romania

Semi-final win chance: 5% / Qualification chance: 74% / Final win chance: 2%

Romania’s chances of qualification have increased over the last few days after a strong performance from Roxen in the “Concert in the Dark” earlier this week laid to bed any potential concerns about her vocal capacity. I think this is likely to qualify; it’s a polished song and stands out as a change of pace among the final five entries.

Azerbaijan

Semi-final win chance: 3% / Qualification chance: 74% / Final win chance: 1%

Azerbaijan places 7th in our market, which seems about right. “Mata Hari” is probably going to compete with “El Diablo” for the same kinds of votes, though I’d hazard a guess that the latter will come out on top. Efendi has a good shot at doing well in the televote, but to me this seems like the type of song that juries may not warm to.

Ukraine

Semi-final win chance: 2% / Qualification chance: 68% / Final win chance: 1%

Ukraine is probably the most difficult entry of all to predict in this semi-final. Personally, I really like “Shum”, but I have no qualms that it will likely divide opinion. But here’s the thing with Eurovision: you vote for your favourite songs. If you don’t like an entry, you’d have to vote for every other country in order to register your displeasure on the same scale. With this in mind, it’s easy to see why “Marmite” entries can often do well with the televote (case in point being Iceland’s Hatari in 2019, which topped the televote in the first semi-final, despite finishing eighth with the jury). With a good stage show, this has the potential to take the roof off the Ahoy on semi-final night. Given Ukraine’s perfect qualification record and a plum spot in the running order, 68% appears a little low for Go_A’s qualification prospects.

Malta

Semi-final win chance: 45% / Qualification chance: 94% / Final win chance: 19%

Closing the show is Malta, the favourite to win this semi-final and deservedly so in my view. “Je me casse” should score highly with the televote and jury alike with its contemporary sound and Destiny’s powerhouse vocals. Though I agree with the market that “Je me casse” is the most likely semi-final winner, I personally wouldn’t touch it at 45%.

Do you agree with me and/or the markets? Who do you think is likely to win or advance to the final? Sound off in the comments below or let me know your thoughts on Twitter – @patricksmarkets.

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Alex
Alex
5 months ago

My Top 10 in random order:

Belgium
Malta
Ireland
Cyprus
Israel
Romania
Croatia
Russia
Ukraine
Australia

Alex
Alex
5 months ago

Belgium will qualify as it’s different song that cannot be compared to any of the other entries. It stands out. They just need a very good staging alas Netherlands 2014. If they don’t prepare a good staging and instead we get a disappointing one like Belgium 2018, then yes it will fail to qualify. Israel should be between 8-10 places, unless a surprise qualifier pushes Israel outside of the top 10. Croatia Cyprus Azerbaijan Australia Israel: one of them might miss the final, i just think it’s a bit difficult to see all of them qualifying. I’d say Cyprus is… Read more »

vangelis vt
vangelis vt
5 months ago

Belgium should top the jury vote in this semi given their professionalism and the quality of the song, but unfortunately nobody can trust the taste of those juries mostly recruited from within the Eurovision bubble (remember Finland 2017?)

On the other hand I don’t see why Cyprus and Romania are considered “sure things” by the bookies, there are obvious weaknesses in those two packages when it comes to both songs and singers and I haven’t seen any performance that convinces me otherwise. Russia, Israel (a very probable jury favourite) and Croatia are probably the underrated ones here.

Alex
Alex
5 months ago
Reply to  vangelis vt

Why do you need live performances to make you confident they will nail the live shows?

Remember Belgium’s Blanche had disappointed everyone in the pre-show parties with her weak live vocals but she came 4th in the final.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 months ago

After my 2nd evaluation, here’s how I’ve ranked the participants in the 1st semi:
9.49 Ukraine (at the moment, Go_A are my #5 overall)
9.48 Malta (my #6)
9.46 Israel (my #8)
9.46 Lithuania (my #9)
9.43 Russia (my #10)
9.41 Sweden
9.32 Cyprus
9.31 Norway
9.30 Azerbaijan
9.27 Romania

9.24 Slovenia
9.21 North Macedonia
9.21 Belgium
9.19 Australia
9.18 Ireland
9.15 Croatia
I will start my 3rd and final evaluation next week. I use 10 criteria (5 audio, 5 video) for each of the entries.

Last edited 5 months ago by CookyMonzta
Edita Vaisviliene
Edita Vaisviliene
5 months ago

After this article, Lithuania’s odds began to fall, although the song didn’t get any worse. Who needs to express their opinion as the truth. The expert’s opinion is formed from the odds, and the bookmakers’ opinion is formed from the expert’s opinion. It would be funny if it weren’t for the grain

wonder
wonder
5 months ago

The odds & polls means nothing! wait for the REHEARSALS.
Staging can change it all!

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 months ago
Reply to  wonder

Aye! Eleni from Cyprus wasn’t even a blip on my scorecard in 2018. Even her music video didn’t give me any indication of what she was going to bring to Lisbon. Then came the stage presentation…

sombooty
sombooty
5 months ago

It is honestly really hard to tell before rehearsals! hope we see some surprises

Serena00
Serena00
5 months ago

I’m looking at the running order and just have a feeling that either Azerbaijan or Ukraine will be NQ

Noah
Noah
5 months ago

you can make a case for just about any scenario or just about any song

Karl Fradgley
Karl Fradgley
5 months ago

I would love Ireland to qualify – it feels like a tall ask in this line up unfortunately

Sir Gay Lazarev
Sir Gay Lazarev
5 months ago
Reply to  Karl Fradgley

Bland song. Should stay in semi.

Squeak
Squeak
5 months ago

My Rankings:

  1. Malta
  2. Sweden
  3. Romania
  4. Cyprus
  5. Lithuania
  6. Azerbaijan
  7. Ukraine
  8. Israel
  9. Ireland
  10. Russia
  11. Croatia
  12. Norway
  13. Belgium
  14. Australia
  15. Slovenia
  16. North Macedonia
Nati
Nati
5 months ago

Unpopular opinion, but I would love these:

1.Lithuania
2.Israel
3.Norway
4. Ireland
5. Belgium
6. Ukraine
7.Sweden
8. Australia
9. Azerbaijan
10. Croatia

Ian
Ian
5 months ago

1. Malta
2. Sweden
3. Lithuania
4. Azerbaijan
5. Russia
6. Cyprus
7. Croatia
8. Belgium
9. Romania
10. Australia ( if good staging )

NQ

1. Ireland ( if australia has bad staging )
2. Ukraine
3. Israel
4. Norway
5. Slovenia
6. North Macedonia

Ian
Ian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ian

Btw random order

Adri
Adri
5 months ago

My prediction:

  1. Malta
  2. Lithuania
  3. Belgium
  4. Cyprus
  5. Romania
  6. Ukraine
  7. Russia
  8. Israel
  9. Sweden
  10. Azerbaijan
  11. Croatia
  12. Slovenia
  13. Norway
  14. Australia
  15. Ireland
  16. North Macedonia
Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Adri

90% agree

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Adri

The eastern-ex yugo block is so powerful in this semi to leave chances to Ireland, Australia, Norway and Belgium…unfortunatelly.
Cyprus and Israel will face problems as well. Sweden will face problems in televoting…and maybe Malta too.
My prediction 1-2 NQ from the last 4 mentioned countries.

Ria van de Velde
Ria van de Velde
5 months ago

Well, I hope this 10 country ‘s will make it to the final:

1.Norway
2.Malta
3.Ireland
4.Sweden
5.Russia
6.Belgium
7.Lithuania
8.Croatia
9.Romania
10.North Macedonia

I don’t like the songs from: Ukraine,Cyprus,Azerbaijan, Australia, Israel and Slovenia

Adri
Adri
5 months ago

Cyprus will qualify, Ireland is a sure NQ.

Kas
Kas
5 months ago

Me too…with only one change, Russia with Slovenia.

pooky1001
pooky1001
5 months ago

My personal top 10 would be 1. Romania. 2. Russia. 3. Belgium. 4. Ukraine. 5. Lithuania. 6. Ireland. 7. Cyprus. 8. Norway. 9. Sweden. 10. Malta. But i think Ireland, and Norway will most likely lose out to Azerbaijan and Australia.

Darren
5 months ago
Reply to  pooky1001

I get NQ vibes from both Azerbaijan and Australia personally, but you could be right.

pooky1001
pooky1001
5 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Personally im not a fan of either song so would prefer they not qualify but Azerbaijan in particular does seem to have a lot more love out there than i thought it would so i can see it going through.

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Totally NQ…but Azers have a huge diaspora behind them.

Dorqemon
Dorqemon
5 months ago
Reply to  pooky1001

I don’t think Belgium is going through because they NEVER nail the staging except once or twice. I think that the song is also sandwiched between two pop divas i.e albina and Eden. The song is good but it may seem lost in an otherwise pop second half with the exception of Norway and Romania of course and Belgium themselves. It’s not a bad song by any means but they have to make the staging memorable so it doesn’t get lost. This is a hard semi to predict and unless the vocal and visual performance is not the best, I… Read more »

Last edited 5 months ago by Dorqemon
Azimuth
Azimuth
5 months ago

Russia is a definite qualifier. They will get lots of public voting points from Lithuania, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Israel, Cyprus and Germany.

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Azimuth

And Italy

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Azimuth

For sure. Ukraine and Azerbaijan too for the same reasons. Don’t like any of these, but these 3 are certainly qualifiers.

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Azimuth

Plus juries…

ESC Nils
ESC Nils
5 months ago

Ireland will shock everybody!
I don’t know what happened… When it came out everybody was yelling IRELAND WINNER 2021.
Now they have all completely forgot about Lesley and her amazing entry.

Zisk
Zisk
5 months ago
Reply to  ESC Nils

They forgot about it because the song is forgettable. It’s a great song but it doesn’t stand out and I don’t really know what they can do with it on stage to cover her not particularly impressive vocals. And that’s coming from an Irishman who desperately wants us to qualify.

Darren
5 months ago
Reply to  ESC Nils

I’m Irish and I love the song but there is no way we are winning lol I love your optimism though.
I’d just be happy with qualification. After that we could place anywhere. But it definitely won’t be top 5 that’s for sure.

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Hee hee…wish Ireland to qualify…always wish.

Adri
Adri
5 months ago
Reply to  ESC Nils

Lesley is vocally very weak, no chance for Ireland to be in the finals

Sot
Sot
5 months ago

Ready for the downvotes, but here’s my prediction (NOT my own opinion): Malta (Well, fan favorite…) Lithuania (More televote points than jury) Sweden (I mean, it’s Sweden) Azerbaijan (Well, either 4th or an NQ…) Ukraine (Dark horse of the year) Cyprus (Decent vocals, but I’m expecting a poor performance) Romania (A emotionless performance will cost her a place in the Top5) Belgium (Expecting HUGE support from the juries, who will eventually save them) Australia (Hmm, I think the live-on-tape will work as an advantage actually) Ireland (Some sources state a nice staging, so I’ll put it through) Croatia (Sorry but… Read more »

MIKAEL
5 months ago

Sooo i am positive

MALTA
SWEDEN
LITHUANIA
AZERBAIJAN
ROMANIA
CYPRUS

Will go to the final the 4 spots left are harder to guess, they are wildcards but i think
RUSSIA, ISRAEL, UKRAINE AND IRLAND eil take it… But i hope for Israel, Norway (only because i want my own country in not because its good), Australia, Slovenia

Redarrow
5 months ago

Malta should win . 12 points from me .

Sot
Sot
5 months ago
Reply to  Redarrow

Well, I hope not, but that’s your opinion

raylee
raylee
5 months ago

1.Sweden
2.Malta
3.Cyprus
4.Romania
5.Norway
6.Lithuania
7.Azerbaijan
8.Belgium
9.Israel
10.Croatia

11.Ukraine
12.Australia
13.Russia
14.Ireland
15.Slovenia
16.North Macedonia
This is not a self-list it is prediction. Some of theese non qualifiers are even in my Top10 but i don’t think they will qualify

raylee
raylee
5 months ago

ma-ma-ma-mata hari

Jamie
Jamie
5 months ago

Betting analyst? These are just opinions of some random entitled guy. Get outta here.

Fred
Fred
5 months ago
Reply to  Jamie

I agree some delusional person wrote this bs.

Stan
Stan
5 months ago

My prediction in random order :

Lithuania
Russia
Sweden
Cyprus
Norway
Israel
Romania
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Malta

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 months ago
Reply to  Stan

Also my top 10 right now.

Alo
Alo
5 months ago

The prediction here feels more like an personal opinion rather then a real bet..
I think he is missing some things that might happen.

Una
Una
5 months ago
Reply to  Alo

I don’t think anyone *in general* would share “trade secrets” openly to the public. I see this enough for a tease. Some of us from the bubble could make quite acurate assessments. One of the reasons this site is popular.

Sapphire
Sapphire
5 months ago

I’m voting Malta and Israel. Malta deserves a win and I really want to see Eden qualify

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
5 months ago
Reply to  Sapphire

Eden Alene’s “Feker Libi” was my #3 last year. “Set Me Free” not quite as strong, but definitely strong enough.

Lalaland
Lalaland
5 months ago

As I am, sadly, voting in semi-final 2 (screw Poland), IF Y’ALL DON’T VOTE FOR UKRAINE AND BELGIUM-

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Lalaland

I will vote Belgium because it’s my winner in SF1. Ukraine is my runner up, but I think I won’t vote it as Italy will most likely give it 10 pointa regardless

Adri
Adri
5 months ago
Reply to  Lalaland

I wish I could vote for Belgium and Romania, maybe Ukraine too.

Mich
Mich
5 months ago
Reply to  Lalaland

I’m from Malta and I have always believed that Belgium can pull off a Netherlands 2014 and place top 10 even in the final.

canada_piano
canada_piano
5 months ago

my predictions before rehearsals (in no particular order)
– Belguim
– Russia
– Azerbaijan
– Lithuania
– Sweden
– Croatia
– Ireland
– Cyprus
– Malta
– Romania

i think our shocker non-qualifier this year will be ukraine unfortunately. i dont really seeing it appeal to the public sorry

Sot
Sot
5 months ago
Reply to  canada_piano

And let’s not forget about all the beautiful stagings Ukraine has made over the years

canada_piano
canada_piano
5 months ago
Reply to  Sot

good point

GuyGuy
GuyGuy
5 months ago

I don’t understand why a draw is used for the semi’s allocation. I think that after the songs have been revealed, the EBU and the broadcasters should choose the semifinals allocation (in keeping with the EBU rules that are used at the draw). This way we can make sure that we won’t end up with one semifinal that is a “bloodbath” and a second semifinal that is a “snoozfest”. This will also ensure that most of the good and “deserving” songs will go through, making the final a better and more fair one.

Doris
Doris
5 months ago
Reply to  GuyGuy

No 100% random draw. Let Malta, Sweden get a chance to sing 2nd in their SF ! No reason Estonia or Slovenia to get it !

Ende
Ende
5 months ago
Reply to  GuyGuy

Well your concept of “bloodpath” semi final implies that some songs are better than other ones… based on what ? odds ? perosnal tastes? We cannot predict individual performances and how all the ESC viewers will react therefore what you define as “bloodpath” semi final is just hypothetical.
Plus at the end the artistic aim is to gather countries together with a friendly song contest. The competition objective is to win, not to finish 2nd… Life is not fair so why a contest should be ?

GuyGuy
GuyGuy
5 months ago
Reply to  Ende

Hi Ende, needless to say that personal taste is individual and subjective, so a song that I might place last in my personal ranking, someone else will rank 1st, but then again, there are songs that MOST people rank high and MOST people rank midtable and MOST people rank at the bottom, it’s just the way it goes and there is a reason that I’m most definitely not the only one who think that the 1st semi (this year) is much stronger than the 2nd, simply because it is very likely that some qualifying songs from the 2nd semi would… Read more »

Giorgio
Giorgio
5 months ago

you are being too harsh. although i don’t particularly like Disney ballads at Eurovision either, i can appreciate the songwriting and the vocal prowess in this entry and i think that certain old-fashioned jury members would push it further than you think.

Jofty
Jofty
5 months ago
Reply to  Giorgio

Agree far too harsh and could be the surprise qualifier. Interesting case also made for Belgium (a) qualifying and (b) winning Jury Vote. I can’t see Ireland, Israel or Russia making the cut, sorry.

Ted
Ted
5 months ago

Everyone thinks Croatia is going to battle for that final spot, but I’m convinced it’s absolutely going through. Song is pretty catchy and you remember it at the end. Croatia has decent televote support and I think juries will work in favor for Croatia. I see this surprising everyone by making great result. I don’t think Israel or Belgium have any chance to qualify even with incredible performance. The song I think will struggle to qualify is Ukraine.

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Ted

Imo Belgium will receive great support with juries (5th in the worst case) and place top 10 in the televoting. Everybody will remember it, it’s the most calm and different act in a sea of upbeat/crazy songs, it stands out a lot.

Crotia may surprise, but remember that there are 5 songs who relies on the same target (Croatia, Azerbaijan, Israel, Cyprus and Malta) and not all of them are going trhough for me, 4 in the best case.

Ted
Ted
5 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

The 5 songs you listed, besides being uptempo and performed by female, have nothing in common. They all sound so different. Israel is out. But just because it’s weaker than these 4 songs.

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Ted

They have something big in common, they try to get votes by the same category of public, meaning one, but most likely two will fail to qualify especially with the public, as televoting always favours modern ballads (Romania), ethnic and authentintic songs (Russia and Sweden), well produced compositions (Sweden, Lithuania and Malta) and standout calm acts (Belgium). In 2019 only Serhat and Victor got good score from the public as upbeat/dance songs, while Tamta and Zena were borderline in a very weak semi final with very few bangers

Last edited 5 months ago by Giolo
Adri
Adri
5 months ago
Reply to  Ted

Croatia will not qualify, no chance. It’s just another popsong and it’s a lot weaker than the other popsongs in that SF. Belgium will surely be in the finals, that’s a piece of art. And Israel too, because she has such a strong vocals

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago

Also Patrick , I would like for you comment on the betting trends on Malta ? Is it normal for a country at top to have that many peaks and troughs and also on if the song is getting most of the bets(as in most people are betting on it ) or most of the high bets(other countries have more number of people betting but most of the high bets are being placed on this and hence it’s leading ) ?

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago

Norway . Finished 1st in its semi in 2018 starting first and then flopped in the final

Kedmor
Kedmor
5 months ago

I’m sorry but this article is too pessimistic. According to the analysis, only Malta and Cyprus will surely qualify. It’s true, but we’re aware of this. No need to repeat. Je Me Casse is a wonderful song, with Destiny’s vocal, I’m sure Malta will get one good grade. However, those FAKE viewing datas on YouTube and FAKE bets on the odds make me feel that Malta is being hypocritical this year. I don’t see Toy2.0 is going to win. If someone is eligible to win, please sing an original song. Sorry, I don not like something unoriginal wins.

Kedmor
Kedmor
5 months ago
Reply to  Kedmor

A mello project is sure to be popular even if it was not selected by Sweden. Malta’s victory is also a triumph for the Swedish composition team. Pathetic.

Last edited 5 months ago by Kedmor
Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Kedmor

They’ve mentioned their 7 qualifiers which agree with the odds and they’re sure will qualify

Lithuania , Sweden , Cyprus , Romania , Azerbaijan , Ukraine , Malta

Norway , Belgium and Israel are their personal bets to qualify though they’re lower in the odds.

A R
A R
5 months ago

It is bloody messy semifinal like hungergames. Is Katniss Everdin in this semifinal? Remember, that she is outsider and considered to be poor and miserable.

It is not about winning the semifinal, but staying alive.

Last edited 5 months ago by A R
Datme
Datme
5 months ago

My prediction ig

Songs I’m more sure about qualifying:
Lithuania
Sweden
Cyprus
Romania
Ukraine
Malta

Songs in limbo:
Russia
Australia
Norway
Belgium
Israel
Azerbaijan
Ireland

Songs that are less likely to make it:
Slovenia
North Macedonia
Croatia

Last edited 5 months ago by Datme
Dawid
Dawid
5 months ago
Reply to  Datme

You underappreciate how repeating to kids words “tik tok” may work

Datme
Datme
5 months ago
Reply to  Dawid

lol I actually like the song. it’s in my top 10 of the semi. but this list is not about my personal taste. and at least one of the upbeat female sung pop songs has to go. if she qualifies, I’d be super happy.

I also wrote it’s less likely, not that it’s a definite no.

Last edited 5 months ago by Datme
Datme
Datme
4 months ago
Reply to  Datme

And in the end it didn’t make it. But it should have…

Last edited 4 months ago by Datme
Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Datme

Albina’s fans are getting annlying… putting dislike if you predict her to stuck in the semi, so mature!

Datme
Datme
5 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

Oh you think it’s them? I don’t mind x)
I think I changed my mind after 20 hours of posting this (lol this semi is too unpredictable). I’d put both Ukraine and Croatia in the middle section because this thing is just a whole mess of uncertainty. I’m still confident about the rest tho.

Quixxxy
Quixxxy
5 months ago

Few weeks ago I was sure Croatia is a sure qualifier, now I’m skeptical. The song is nice, she is great… but not as strong as other female entries in the semifinal. I don’t know if it can get strong performance enough. Even tho I get an eye twitch everytime I hear Cyprus or Azerbaijan, at least these two can build on a polished and over-produced performances (vocally… I’m again skeptical, but that is another story). Croatia… I dont know. 🙁

Adri
Adri
5 months ago
Reply to  Quixxxy

You have to be totally honest. Tick tock is a lot weaker than the other popsongs in this SF. It’s nothing special. It will not stand out. It’s like the little cousin of Cyprus.

Hannie
Hannie
5 months ago

My prediction:

Q: Malta, Sweden, Cyprus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Russia, Romania, Ukraine, Norway, Croatia
NQ: Israel, Australia, Ireland, Belgium, North Macedonia, Slovenia

SDG91
SDG91
5 months ago
Reply to  Hannie

I almost agree. I can see Israel potentially qualifying over Croatia

Adri
Adri
5 months ago
Reply to  Hannie

Belgium in, Sweden out. Croatia will not quality, Norway neither.

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Adri

Sweden will qualify for sure imo and Belgium is in too

Ali
Ali
5 months ago

not them saying russian woman is a bad song

wonder
wonder
5 months ago

WAIT FOR THE REHEARSALS.. then we will be smarter.. not the odds means nothing!

Yup
Yup
5 months ago

Were there a larger group on deciding these predictions or did Smarkets just let a drunk man roll a dice on each of the acts and let faith decide the outcome?

Héctor
Héctor
5 months ago

My heart is going to be teared apart if Ireland doesn’t qualify.

On the other hand, I think Croatia, Israel, Cyprus and Norway are too high. Maybe Azerbaijan too, though we know Azerbaijan almost always qualify…

AdD
AdD
5 months ago
Reply to  Héctor

They almost always qualify, but this is a song i would totally see not qualifying. I agree completely with you on Ireland. This song deserves to be on the final. Let’s hope for an amazing stage show…

ESCb
ESCb
5 months ago
Reply to  AdD

Lesley has promised us something very special, so fingers crossed!

Lola
Lola
5 months ago

My current prediction (in order of running order)
1. Lithuania
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Cyprus
5. Croatia
6. Belgium
7. Romania
8. Azerbaijan
9. Ukraine
10. Malta

Ireland, Norway and Israel could easily take one of those spots as well, but looking at all the different aspects, I’ve placed them just out of the top 10. I also noticed I have a lot of qualifiers in the 2nd half, maybe too much in comparison? Apart from Lithuania and Malta, I think no one is safe. This is gonna be A BATTLE!

Viggz
Viggz
5 months ago

My qualifiers (random order)

  1. Lithuania
  2. Sweden
  3. Ireland
  4. Cyprus
  5. Norway
  6. Belgium
  7. Romania
  8. Ukraine
  9. Malta
  10. Azerbaijan or Russia
Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
5 months ago

wish this was more an assessment of the odds from someone impartial to the contest and just an odds expert or something. it would be interesting to see what the results of this would be if not for the constant ‘but I might be biased’ – I kind of just want to see what someone with no connection to the songs would think of the odds based on past odds correctness and so on.

Grft
Grft
5 months ago

I want Montaigne to qualify 🙁 Technicolour is my favourite entry this year

Trina
Trina
5 months ago
Reply to  Grft

The unfortunate thing is that even if they qualify, won’t they just play the same back-up video for the final? (This seems like a huge disadvantage.)

Leo M
Leo M
5 months ago

My current predictions are:

Lithuania, Russia, Sweden, Ireland, Cyprus, Belgium, Romania, Azerbaijan, Ukraine & Malta

Darren
5 months ago

My personal 10: (random order)
Ukraine
Lithuania
Ireland
Sweden
Russia
Malta
Cyprus
Belgium
Romania
Australia

Who it will probably be:
Malta
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
Croatia
Lithuania
Norway
Israel
Russia
Ukraine

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago

My prediction

1. Malta
2. Lithuania
3. Sweden
4. Belgium
5. Romania
6. Russia
7. Cyprus
8. Norway
9. Ukraine
10. Azerbaijan
11. Israel
12. Croatia
13. Australia
14. Slovenia
15. North Macedonia
16. Ireland

Henry
Henry
5 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

Ireland dead last? don’t think so…

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Henry

We’ll see, I love her song, but the nor the vocals nor Lesley’s charisma look strong enough for me. Vasil and Ana have the voice and juries should respect them so they are most likely to avoid last place for me

Last edited 5 months ago by Giolo