Albina Croatia Eurovision 2021 Tick Tock

Who will qualify from Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2021 and reach the grand final? Well according to the latest Smarkets Eurovision odds, Malta should be breathing easy. Destiny currently tops their prediction market with a 96.15% chance of qualifying. Looks like she will not be booking an early ticket home.

Close behind as second most likely to qualify is Sweden’s Tusse on 90%, followed by Lithuania’s The Roop on 87%, Cyprus’ Elena Tsagrinou on 79%, and Romania’s Roxen on 78%. Rounding out the Top 10 most likely to qualify acts are Russia’s Manizha and Norway’s TIX (both on around 75%), Azerbaijan’s Efendi on 74%, Ukraine’s Go_A on 69%, and Croatia’s Albina on 67%.

If you believe in the wisdom of the crowd, then that means the following countries are out: Israel, Belgium, Ireland, Australia, Slovenia and North Macedonia.

Who will qualify from Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2021?

 

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If we look at the countries currently out of the Top 10, Israel’s Eden Alene and Belgium’s Hooverphonic both have chances of qualification above 50%. That puts them within striking distance of Croatia, who currently has a 67% chance of going through.

Israel and Belgium are getting a lot more love from the market than the countries that follow. Ireland, Australia, Slovenia and North Macedonia all have qualification chances of 35% or lower.

What do you make of the above qualification prediction from Smarkets? Does it look realistic to you? Which countries would you swap in and out? And do you think that Croatia, Israel, and Belgium really are the three countries competing for that last spot? Let us know in the comments box below!

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Jeremy
Jeremy
6 days ago

I really hope Ireland will qualify. This song has everything, it is upbeat, hopeful, and has a meaning !

Miguel
Miguel
6 days ago

I would prefer Ireland and Israel instead of Croatia /Sweden/Norway

Val85
Val85
7 days ago

My predictioN:

Malta
Romania
Lithuania
Sweden
Ukraine
Russia
Norway
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
Israel

I have to admit that I had problems to write Norway. I dont understand why the song is so high rated. Malta and Romania are going to fight for top ticket for the final. I think Romania has a very underrated song, it is going to be a dark horse for the final

Kalla
Kalla
7 days ago

I would swap Russia for Belgium.

KuhKatz
KuhKatz
7 days ago

My prediction:

Almost sure qualifiers:
Malta
Lithuania
Sweden
Ukraine

Likely to qualify:
Cyprus
Russia
Norway
Romania

Borderline:
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Ireland
Israel
Belgium

Unlikely to qualify:
Australia
Slovenia
North Macedonia

Zisk
Zisk
6 days ago
Reply to  KuhKatz

I think outside of Ukraine being in ‘likely’ instead of ‘almost sure’ this is 100% what I feel too.

David
David
7 days ago

Sweden and Malta will fight it out for the top placement in this semi

ESC fan
ESC fan
7 days ago

Why did the bulk of the good songs have to be in semi 1, like no matter who goes through we are looking really good songs. Personally I would love to see Israel, Belgium, and Ireland qualify, but that means also missing out on other amazing songs. I feel a lot of the non qualifiers for semi 1 would qualify if they were in semi 2, even maybe North Macedonia. But I think every song this year has at least one good quality about it.

Ariadne
Ariadne
7 days ago
Reply to  ESC fan

It seems to happen this way often in Eurovision, where there are Semi 1 songs that do not qualify, but seem to be superior to many of the Semi 2 songs that do qualify. Or maybe it just seems that way …

Dom Dong
Dom Dong
7 days ago

My personal top 10:
Romania
Croatia
Cyprus
Malta
Ukraine
Belgium
Azerbaijan
Ireland
Lithuania
Sweden

Last edited 7 days ago by Dom Dong
Dom Dong
Dom Dong
7 days ago

I can’t believe we’re even talking about Norway qualifying, that song should be dead last imo

wonder
wonder
7 days ago

OMG! Israel soo lucky! I can’t.. their song located between 2 boring and depressive ballads. Israel will qualify for sure! This REVAMP saved this song and now it’s a dark horse! Top 10 in the final for sure (if not Top 5).

Last edited 7 days ago by wonder
Paul
Paul
6 days ago
Reply to  wonder

everyone will forget Israel After Amnesia and Je me casse

Will
Will
7 days ago

It’s too early to predict anything. I wouldn’t rule out anybody right now.

Frank
7 days ago

No ballad going through. That seems very unlikely.. Slovenia or North Macedonia will reach the final.

Will
Will
7 days ago
Reply to  Frank

Yes!

wonder
wonder
7 days ago

The winner this year will be an up-tempo/dance song…

Malta (women empowerment) or Israel (Covid-19)?

Putting Eden before Destiny kind of sabotage Destiny’s impact on the listeners, the scream of Destiny will be sooo average to the listeners after Eden’s whistle notes.

Last edited 7 days ago by wonder
Mr X
Mr X
7 days ago
Reply to  wonder

Malta will not win, my favourite is Lithuania

wonder
wonder
7 days ago

When the STAND IN rehearsals starts?? I want some leaks hahaha

Ray
Ray
7 days ago

Ireland are definitely going through this year, it’s a great entry from the emerald isle.

FFF
FFF
7 days ago

Here’s the countries I guess will qualify:

Ireland, Lithuania, Russia, Sweden, Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, Norway, Romania and Ukraine

Grft
Grft
7 days ago

I think they are so wrong lol. For me Ireland and Israel are IN, Norway and Croatia are OUT. Romania could be worried too, and Belgium could (should) sneak in.

Last edited 7 days ago by Grft
Leanne
Leanne
7 days ago

Lord I know I will get slapped with downvotes for saying this, but no other year would I hope for most “predictable” qualifiers to stay in the semi more than this one, with this semifinal. There are just too many good entries in this semi to be rewarding countries who are either playing it way too safe this year or, simply, not as good IMO.

I know it won’t happen so I have 17 days to come to terms with it lol.

Alex
Alex
7 days ago

Damn i also think Ireland can make it with the right staging. Croatia you in danger, unless juries don’t vote for Azerbaijan.

Alex
Alex
7 days ago

Belgium will qualify and Norway will not qualify.

Then, Azerbaijan, Croatia and Israel will fight for the other ticket.

John the Go
7 days ago

My personal prediction would be that the Jury score will benefit Belgium and they will qualify instead of Norway (who I can imagine easily flopping.)

...
...
7 days ago

To be completely honest, I would love not to see Norway qualifying. There are so many good songs in this semi. It would be like they were stealing a spot… I don’t want to loose Israel and Belgium… 🙁
I have doubts about Azerbaijan…

Darren
7 days ago
Reply to  ...

Replace Norway and Azerbaijan with Belgium and Ireland, and I’d be satisfied.

Nikos
Nikos
8 days ago

I think Norway is this year’s Michal Szpak (Poland 2016). Generally people thought Poland 2016 would miss the final and it ended up doing quite well, 3rd in the grand final televote if I recall.

The songs are even a little similar, feeling a little dated but in a nostalgic way.

Darren
8 days ago
Reply to  Nikos

Nope, it’s definitely not.

Matea
Matea
7 days ago
Reply to  Nikos

If I recall well, Michal Szpak did so good because of the polish diaspora.

Una
Una
7 days ago
Reply to  Matea

That myth has been debunked. I remember reading news about non-Polish people, including celebrities, expressing their support for him in the wake of the shocker televote result.

ESC8
ESC8
7 days ago
Reply to  Matea

We have to stop with this diaspora nonsense. If this was the case, then they wouldn’t have missed the final in 2018 and 2019. A country cannot get a high score only because of the diaspora vote. It can probably save them from getting 0 points and yes they are in a better position than countries with no diaspora vote, but diaspora cannot make a country qualify or give them a good placing

Burger
Burger
7 days ago
Reply to  ESC8

Diaspora voting has been diluted these days by juries too. Poland failed to qualify in 2018 and 2019 so the diaspora didn’t help them then.

Mr_P
Mr_P
7 days ago
Reply to  Nikos

I agree 100 %

euroboy
euroboy
8 days ago

Hi wiwi, there is a rumor that Jelena Karleusa, the biggest Balkan superstar will be coming to Rotterdam. Allegedly she will be in charge for Hurricane’s costumes.

Nathalie Bazinga
Nathalie Bazinga
8 days ago
Reply to  euroboy

Self proclaimed biggest superstar xD

jelena k
jelena k
8 days ago

A bit of exaggeration but she is very popular indeed. Google her. She is maybe the first LGBT activist in Serbia (singers), she is one of the rare artists in Serbia that invests in her performances. And she wanted to represent Serbia on several occasions but RTS didn’t want her unfortunately.

Ted
Ted
8 days ago
Reply to  euroboy

Biggest Balkan superstar, hahahah. Not in any way, shape or form.

Eros
Eros
8 days ago

Croatia + Norway will NQ.

Belgium + Israel will qualify.

ESCLightworker
ESCLightworker
8 days ago
Reply to  Eros

I think so too and Ireland might be in aswell.

Nayhan
Nayhan
8 days ago

I think Ireland will qualify strong song

Jo.
Jo.
8 days ago

let’s get the fools to lose some money

David
David
8 days ago

Sweden and Malta will fight it out for top placement

esc_fl
esc_fl
8 days ago

While I’m not a fan of Sweden, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, or Lithuania’s songs, I can’t see Tusse, Elena, Efendi. or the Roop not qualifying for the final. I’m hopeful for Ana but I’m worried everyone’s going to overlook Slovenia; depends on how she’s changed her performance. And Montaigne might be affected negatively since her performance isn’t live.

That said, my personal 10 qualifiers are: Australia, Belgium, Croatia, Ireland, Israel, Malta, Norway, Romania, Slovenia, and Ukraine, although if Russia qualifies I’ll still be happy for Manizha. Macedonia’s song is sadly a firm no!

SpK
SpK
8 days ago

Well I think they’re getting it pretty right (as far as we know before the rehearsals). I’d only swap Croatia with Belgium and that would be my prediction. Things will clear more during rehearsals; few songs are truly safe to make it at this moment (I’d say Malta, Sweden, Lithuania). Everybody else can get dragged to non qualifying if the performance is lacklustre. I wouldn’t count Israel out either cause Eden is a great performer, but I think someone else has to underperform for Israel to make it.

Matt
Matt
8 days ago

This is how I see the semi-final playing out in terms of who will qualify. I think Cyprus and Sweden are definitely making it, but could finish 6-10 in the semi easily. I also think Russia could be one that scrapes in, or Manizha is really popular and they do really well. Definitely Qualifying: Cyprus Lithuania Malta Sweden Most Likely: Azerbaijan Croatia Romania Russia Borderline: Ireland Israel Norway Ukraine Unlikely: Belgium Australia Macedonia Slovenia If I had to pick which two of the borderlines I think will make it, I’d say Norway and Ukraine, so I don’t disagree with the… Read more »

Whisker
Whisker
8 days ago

The only songs I enjoy in this semi are, in alphabetical order:

Lithuania, Norway, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine.

Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Whisker

For me its: Ireland, Israel, Belgium, Lithuania, Malta (Malta will win this semi). Dont care about the other songs.

Nathalie Bazinga
Nathalie Bazinga
8 days ago
Reply to  Whisker

Same.. Without Norway

Sot
Sot
8 days ago

At this point, it’s a mistake to listen to the oddsmakers. They know exactly the same as us when it comes to a country’s qualification chances, especially in this bloodbath semi…

Belgium is 100% in, while Norway is 100% out.
I also have faith in Ireland but in that case Croatia must NQ.
Finally, Australia will be in the final instead of Russia, I think the juries will be responsible for that.

This is what I would change on the current odds, based on what I see…

dfafa
dfafa
8 days ago
Reply to  Sot

Australia will difficultly enter the final performing from Australia

Mr_P
Mr_P
7 days ago
Reply to  Sot

You are wrong about everything lol

Laburnum
Laburnum
8 days ago

Norway is out. With Belarus gone Russia and Ukraine might struggle. Out of the two I think Russia is more likely to not qualify. Belgium, Israel and I think Ireland will do well with juries and have good chances of qualifying. I’d love Slovenia to qualify but I’m sad to say it’s likely they won’t. It’s a tough semi, we can only really guess until we see the rehearsals. For now my guess is Azerbaijan, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Romania and Sweden and either Ireland or Ukraine taking the 10th spot but rn I’d say Ukraine is more… Read more »

Nathalie Bazinga
Nathalie Bazinga
8 days ago
Reply to  Laburnum

Ukraine and Russia are 100% qualifiers

Cozmin COZMA
Cozmin COZMA
8 days ago

For me my personal winners here are Romania ( love everything about these one) and Russia ( stunning personality and good vibes)!
Then I would chose Malta ( strong voice and for the complexity of the composition), Sweden ( loving how he give life to his song through his vocals and mimics ), Ukraine’s song ( the best in originality).
OMG I can keep almost all of the 1 semi’ s songs for the final…..

Ieva
Ieva
8 days ago

I strongly believe it will be Belgium or Israel over Norway.

Darren
8 days ago
Reply to  Ieva

I just don’t get the hype around Norway

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  Darren

There is no hype. Just betting odds ranking it high

Mr Vanilla Bean
Mr Vanilla Bean
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

and ME. 🙂

Whisker
Whisker
8 days ago

For sure!

Darren
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Maybe I’m wrong but looking around comments on here and on YouTube, it feels as though everyone (except me) lol has Norway as a qualifier or in their top 10.
All i see is Norway Norway Norway lol

Last edited 8 days ago by Darren
Henry
Henry
8 days ago
Reply to  Ieva

Norway will qualify!

lin
lin
8 days ago

for me as a Israeli I think that if Israel does not qualify for the final, it’s FINE ,because we won in 2018 and hosted the best Eurovision event ever!!!!!!!!! we also have 4 wins compared to countries that did not win even once 🙂 This year the winner will be France or Switzerland.
But I think that Israel will make it to the final.

Last edited 8 days ago by lin
Richard
Richard
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

2019 was far from the best Eurovision ever. Stop lying to yourself.

Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Richard

Lol this is my opinion, for me it was the best show ever, this show also won prizes so keep envy and lying to your self lol

Richard
Richard
8 days ago
Reply to  Lin

You forced us to watch Madonna sing out of tune for 20 minutes. Sit down.

Last edited 8 days ago by Richard
Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Richard

Lol atleast Madonna was there?

Jonas
Jonas
8 days ago
Reply to  Lin

2019 was great.

lin
lin
7 days ago
Reply to  Jonas

Jonas you have a great taste:)

lin
lin
8 days ago

Many times the odds failed to predict what happened in reality, to remind you, Eleni Foureira was also low in the odds before rehearsals, I think Eden will rise high in the odds after rehearsals because she sings amazing in live performances, I am sure Israel and Ireland will qualify for the final and gamblers will eat their hat.

Aeria
Aeria
8 days ago

For the life of me, I don’t understand how Croatia is in that top 10 and Israel isn’t. I know I’m a small minority who doesn’t like Croatia at all (it’s in my bottom 5) I just think her live vocals are too weak, the song is too bland and has nearly no identity… If you compare that to Eden’s vocals, she’s already proven she can do the whistle note. I’m pretty sure both Israel and Malta will completely thwart all chances Croatia has at qualifying, and I already believed those to be small.

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  Aeria

And what iDenTitY does Israels song have? What does that even mean? Dont get me wrong I love Edens song but lmao

lin
lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Israel is not perfect this year but way way better than Croatia which brings pure thrush, Israel brings a great song and perfect vocalist maybe the best female vocalist this year so I’m sure Israel will be in the final.

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

I think they’re both good and both will be in final 🙂 also Croatia has a great vocalist, but the song can’t really show her vocal ability. And in the end it’s not a singing competition. I personally think Maltas song sucks but shes’s a great singer so

lin
lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

I wish Croatia would send a song in the style (The Lighthouse) as they sent in 2016 with an amazing singer who sang like the lead singer of the Cranberries

btw
btw
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

Set me free is very weak.

lin
lin
8 days ago
Reply to  btw

Not as weak as other countries for my opinion of course.

lin
lin
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

And I do not think Malta or France are copies, the only copies that really stand out are Cyprus and Romania

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

Lol I always thought Bulgaria was a Billy Eilish copy not Romania

Jay
Jay
1 day ago
Reply to  btw

Not since the revamp

123
123
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

They bring a song that they themselves don’t believe in since they had to revamp it immediately after it has been chosen. Croatia’s song has a much better hook and doesn’t have calculated, unnecessary high notes that are put there just to fill the gap and to bait the juries.

Dan
Dan
8 days ago
Reply to  123

Lol song who called “tik tok” is a big no for me from the beginning, too cheap!
Israel revamped their song..so what?? The outcome is much better that shows Israel is care for this contest! Eden’s voice and performance is outstanding and will beat Croatia any time any place!

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  Dan

Israel is in my top 5 but these types of comments really make me wanna give you 0 votes. 😀

Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Sorry Israel is a vibrant democracy we used to give our honest brutal opinion
Whats the song has to do with my opinion?? If you like it so vote for it lol

Sapphire
Sapphire
8 days ago

Croatia will 100% get overshadowed by Israel and Malta, so Albina qualifying will not happen. Norway isn’t certain either and Ireland could do better as well. But yeah, Croatia qualifying isn’t gonna happen this year.

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  Sapphire

I don’t see how it could get overshadowed by Malta when they are not similar in any way. And the one who could flop would be Azerbaijan.
And Norway

Last edited 8 days ago by Yeah yeah fire
Eros
Eros
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Azerbaijan will have killer staging. Don’t count them out!

destiny stan account
destiny stan account
8 days ago
Reply to  Eros

they have the same staging director as chingiz lmao. is efendi gonna have robots and have her spirit flying

lin
lin
8 days ago

Israel is better than Croatia, Romania the fake copy of Billie Eilish and Cyprus the fake copy of Lady Gaga, at least Israel always sends original songs written and produced by Israelis.
I am sure that Israel will qualify for the finals

Boreal
Boreal
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

SO TRUE

Cozmin COZMA
Cozmin COZMA
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

LOL
I would love to see a really good copy of a strong artist on the ESC stage, but neither Roxen or Elena are what you declare!
You people find something negative in anyone that you don’t like ( Destiny is Neta, Barbara is Salvador … )
WTF…just do not vote for them but STOP hating! It’s so disrespectful for all these artist….

lin
lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Cozmin COZMA

I’m sorry but they are copies indeed and not a successful one’s!!
I do not hate them, I just write my opinion, I love original songs and singers.

lin
lin
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

And I do not think Malta or France are copies, the only copies that really stand out are Cyprus and Romania

Cozmin COZMA
Cozmin COZMA
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

I think critics can be constructive…. but at the right moment!
Right now things are done so we can love it or hate it, but I personally chose to share only my positive opinion because I’m not a professional, I’m just a viewer……. and being emphatic with all these artists is pure respect!
I wish you an fantastic ESC 21 session !

123
123
8 days ago
Reply to  lin

Lol, original song that even they didn’t like so they had to revamp it to try and salvage what they can.

Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  123

Atleast we won 4 times so we definitely can

Last edited 8 days ago by Lin
Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  123

But its Original!!!!!!!

Lin
Lin
8 days ago
Reply to  Lin

We in Israel not busy with copy from others thats why we the startup nation always inventing!!!!!

AM2PM
AM2PM
7 days ago
Reply to  Lin

You spelled ‘invading’ wrong

Alo
Alo
7 days ago
Reply to  lin

As an Israeli I just want to tell you one thing-relax.. It’s only eurovision..maybe eden will go through and maybe not, it won’t be the end of the world.

Mr Vanilla Bean
Mr Vanilla Bean
8 days ago

Smarkets is a ridiculous name.

Whisker
Whisker
8 days ago

YES!

Inky
Inky
8 days ago

I think the odds could be totally wrong this year. Norway and Sweden are overestimated. Sweden will qualify, because of jury votes, but I don’t think Norway will.
Belgium is one of my favorites, I hope they will qualify. I think Slovenia is underestimated and wil get a lot of jury votes.
Ireland could surprise too, Israel not really.
I’m not sure about Azerbeidzjan (IMO comparable to Cyprus, but not as catchy), Russia and Ukraine (western ears aren’t used to that sound).

zelenovi
zelenovi
8 days ago

These odds feel quite skewed to countries’ with strong qualification records. I don’t think Sweden, Azerbaijan and Romania are as safe as this suggests.

Last edited 8 days ago by zelenovi
Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago

My faves in random order, tho I know it won’t happen
Ukraine
Croatia
Russia
Ireland
Belgium
Israel
Cyprus
Romania
Lithuania
Aaand 10th Slovenia/Sweden/australia any out of these idc

Escfan
Escfan
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Why all the hate for the Maltese song?

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago
Reply to  Escfan

I just personally don’t Iike the song. I think it’s overhyped and overated. Why is it 1st in the betting odds is a mystery to me. I think it makes people think it’s better than it actually is. And I hate seeing ads in my country that beg me to vote for Malta

Escfan
Escfan
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Completely agree, destiny is a great singer but the song is beneath her and its overhyped.

ESC 21
8 days ago
Reply to  Escfan

Its a Swedish wtithers, thats why people hate it. It it ben a song from Ukrain or Russian writhers, they loved it

Sot
Sot
8 days ago
Reply to  Escfan

Well, not liking a song doesn’t mean that you hate it…

Sot
Sot
8 days ago
Reply to  Sot

To give an example, in 2018 Spain was my last place but I never hated it

Dorito
Dorito
8 days ago

I still think Sweden isn’t qualifying…

Henry
Henry
8 days ago
Reply to  Dorito

Yeah, right…Sweden will be top 3 in this Semi final.. (I’m NOT from Sweden)

Yeah yeah fire
Yeah yeah fire
8 days ago

I really hope Croatia and Ireland will both qualify! And Russia and Ukraine both. But I think one of each will take the spot for some reason.
Why are all the good songs in semi 1

ESC8
ESC8
8 days ago
Reply to  Yeah yeah fire

Ukraine is in. As for the other 3, I really don’t know. They could all 3 make it, they could also not make it (all 3).

Burger
Burger
8 days ago

I’m not totally sure both Russia and Ukraine will qualify. I get the feeling one of them won’t. Ukraine will divide opinions and it’s different, Russia is also different (not sure juries will go for either) but the big factor that hurts is no Belarus this year, Russia alone has lost close to 20 points on that.

ESC8
ESC8
8 days ago
Reply to  Burger

Ukraine is in. Russia, I don’t know, it’s in the hands of the juries

Alo
Alo
8 days ago

This semi is soo competitive. The performances will be the main factor for success here. I think 15/16 countries has some chance to qualify.

Berco
Berco
8 days ago

This is going to be a though semi, and live performances are going to decide who will qualify. I think jury votes may have a lot of impact on the qualifiers for this time.