Who will qualify from Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2021 and reach the grand final? Well according to the latest Smarkets Eurovision odds, Malta should be breathing easy. Destiny currently tops their prediction market with a 96.15% chance of qualifying. Looks like she will not be booking an early ticket home.
Close behind as second most likely to qualify is Sweden’s Tusse on 90%, followed by Lithuania’s The Roop on 87%, Cyprus’ Elena Tsagrinou on 79%, and Romania’s Roxen on 78%. Rounding out the Top 10 most likely to qualify acts are Russia’s Manizha and Norway’s TIX (both on around 75%), Azerbaijan’s Efendi on 74%, Ukraine’s Go_A on 69%, and Croatia’s Albina on 67%.
If you believe in the wisdom of the crowd, then that means the following countries are out: Israel, Belgium, Ireland, Australia, Slovenia and North Macedonia.
Who will qualify from Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2021?
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If we look at the countries currently out of the Top 10, Israel’s Eden Alene and Belgium’s Hooverphonic both have chances of qualification above 50%. That puts them within striking distance of Croatia, who currently has a 67% chance of going through.
Israel and Belgium are getting a lot more love from the market than the countries that follow. Ireland, Australia, Slovenia and North Macedonia all have qualification chances of 35% or lower.
What do you make of the above qualification prediction from Smarkets? Does it look realistic to you? Which countries would you swap in and out? And do you think that Croatia, Israel, and Belgium really are the three countries competing for that last spot? Let us know in the comments box below!