Now that we’ve seen all of the countries competing in Eurovision 2021 take to the stage for their rehearsals, we’re starting to get a clearer look at how the competition is shaping up. People have been betting on who they think will win the contest throughout the past week and the Smarkets prediction market has been keeping track.
Unlike bookmakers, who want to make as much money off customers as possible, Smarkets list favourites based solely on customers betting activity and how the crowd is moving.
The latest winning probabilities show Italy at the top of the list, with France falling slightly to second favourite. Iceland are also making gains.
Meanwhile, former favourite Switzerland takes a big hit, falling out of the top five favourites.
Eurovision prediction market: Italy overtakes France as favourite to win
This year might be the tightest competition in recent history. Italy has just overtaken France as favourites with the Eurovision 2021 prediction market. Måneskin’s probability of victory now sit at around 26.67%.
Their pyro-tastic first rehearsal of “Zitti E Buoni” impressed us all and put the Italian rock band back on the radar.
But France’s Barbara Pravi is still on the radar. The “Voilà” chanteuse has remained a firm favourite with fans ever since her C’est vous qui décidez victory back in January. A French win at Eurovision 2021 currently sits at a probability of 26.32% on the prediction market. There’s only 0.35% in it, so it’s still a very close battle at this point.
Elsewhere, former underdogs Iceland are also making gains. Daði og Gagnamagnið took an initial hit following the unveiling of their song “10 Years”. But now following their wonderfully quirky rehearsal, they’re back in the game. Iceland sit at fourth most likely to win with probability of 9.52%.
Further down, Gjon’s Tears from Switzerland took a harsh blow. Before rehearsals, “Tout l’Univers” sat comfortably near the top of the Eurovision 2021 prediction market, with a 16% chance of victory. But following the reveal of the Swiss act’s stage concept, people have shied away from him. He’s dropped from the second favourite and now sits as seventh most likely to win with a 5% chance at the time of writing.
Smarkets prediction market: Most likely to win Eurovision 2021
Here is the Smarkets prediction market top 20 countries most likely to win Eurovision 2021:
- Italy — 26.67%
- France — 26.32%
- Malta — 11.63%
- Iceland — 9.52%
- Bulgaria — 6.06%
- Cyprus — 5.26%
- Switzerland — 5.00%
- Ukraine — 2.50%
- Lithuania — 2.27%
- Netherlands — 1.82%
- Greece — 1.67%
- Finland — 1.67%
- Russia — 1.25%
- Sweden — 1.18%
- San Marino — 1.18%
- Croatia — 0.67%
- Norway — 0.53%
- Portugal — 0.40%
- Belgium — 0.33%
- Ireland — 0.33%
Probabilities correct as of 13:45 BST on Saturday 15 May.
View the full Eurovision 2021 Smarket prediction list here
What do you make of the current Eurovision 2021 Smarket prediction market? Will you be placing a bet on Eurovision 2021? Let us know in the comments below.
Italy has a song whose genre hasn‘t even come close to a win in the history of the contest. (don’t start with Lordi or you disqualify yourself in talking music styles LOL). That is the biggest threat to a potential italian win. So I would indeed be surprised if we go to Rome or Firenze next year. Still – surprise is the second name of the contest 😉
I’m almost certain that when Italy eventually wins, life will be back to normal, and they’d host the contest at the (Insert name here) Forum, outside of Milan.
Milan is definitely the safest choice. If Rai is wise and reasonable enough then they will choose Assago Forum, or somewhere near Rho (or who knows, perhaps even San Siro).
There will be shifts in the odds again. The actual semi performances will bring a new dynamics and eventually France will – hopefully – come out victorious.
I think Malta will be the dark horse of the competition
Vai in Italia <3
Delighted for Italy who have been serving up quality songs for years! Slightly off topic, but The History Show on RTÉ Radio 1 at 6pm (Irish time) this evening will include an item on Eurovision 1990 which was held in Zagreb and featured the late Liam Reilly representing Ireland who finished second with ‘Somewhere in Europe’.
ITALY for the Win ! They’ve been robbed way too many times and this song deserves it.
Its wide open this year: true French chanson doesn’t appeal to everybody (note the last French winner in the 70s wasn’t a true chanson it was a fairly typical Eurovision song of that time), rock doesn’t appeal to everyone either (2006 was the last rock winner). Since the split voting only Portugal in 2017 topped both the jury and televote: the other winners placed higher with televote points than the top jury point scorer (e.g. Ukraine was higher than Australia in 2016; Israel was higher than Austria in 2018; Netherlands higher than Sweden or North Macedonia in 2019) but all… Read more »
no way Italy wins – I love Italy above all, but this entry ist just nothing to be exited about, simply an accident.
It wasn’t accident at all. Måneskin’s song was definitely the best song at the Sanremo’s festival. No doubt about it.
Interesting that Ireland is starting to be acknowledged by the bookies.
I have a feelings that one of the country that is not top of the betting odds snatch the crown.
Okay, this might sound strange but I feel that perhaps Ukraine has the possibility to win, of course if everything goes well and the other performances do really bad. Like, honestly, I wouldn’t mind seeing Ukraine winning again.
Those who put bets should bear in mind that the Big-5-countries and the host country often do worse than expected. They have the disadvantage that their songs are heard in the final for the first time by most ESC-viewers. By then, many viewers have already picked their favourites in the semifinals.
Still Italy won the televote in 2015 and was in top 3 in 2018 and 2019
Yes, and Germany won in 2010. I don’t say they can’t win or be in top 5, but there are plenty of other examples showing that the automatic qualifiers tend to have it more difficult to achieve the expected result.
I still believe in the top 2 nevertheless
So are we not gonna talk about Switzerland’s placement?
My top 5 so far
followed by Finland, Bulgaria and Belgium
What happens now until Tuesday? Are there any more rehearsal clips?
No more clips, we’ll have to deal with the anxiety until Tuesday night. But there are 2 dress rehearsals and the jury show before it, so the odds can still respond to that based on how the press reacts to them.
And also there is the turquoise carpet tonight
Favs odds to 3,5 and 4 are just….risky favs with huge uncertainty.
This esc is widely OPEN to a lot of countries. A possible winner must scores in top5 of juries and televoting. Veru difficult….for the current top3. Entries addressed to specific narrow audiences…
Why am I just realizing that if France wins and decides to host, they would win 2 eurovision events in a row (esc and jesc) and 2 eurovision events in a row would be hosted in France (jesc 2021, esc 2022.) And if malta wins, destiny would be the first person to win both jesc and esc (jesc 2015, esc 2021)
Btw i don’t really care who wins as I think every entry this year is good so.
When Amir had made a good ranking I said: “In seven years, we will bring Eurovision to France”. Thanks to Valentina my prediction came true on time, but it would be the cherry on the cake if thanks to Barbara it came true in its entirety. But even if the victory goes to Maneskin or someone else, I know that Barbara will have marked the spirits, and I also know that we will do everything to organize fabulous JESC. And as I said “seven years”, there is still 2022 to start my career as a medium. : D
if Amir didn’t make it, nobody will. Sorry, but Barbara appeals to a very small group of listeaners.
The difference this year is that both Italy and France have understood how to use staging and how to use the camera. Poor Amir had a terrible staging and looked a kind of terrified on a huge empty stage. Italy never had a good use of camera before. My favorite so far – Marco Mengoni – was just standing there in a nice suit singing wonderfully. But the camera did not do the work. This year on the other hand both France and Italy seams to have understood.
I think the audience will not be very enthusiastic with France. Some people might find it boring and that could harm it in the televote.
Im getting tired of always hearing the same statement, why think that she would flop on the televote when many people and even other contestants this year love it. It’s true that French Chanson doesn’t appeal to everyone but neither does rock music and i dont see anyone saying that italy will flop. I say that all the top 5 have their chances either to boost or to flop
The way I see it, all starts with 2 questions: – Will the juries allow themselves to reward a rock song? – Will the televote be in the mood for chanson? If the answer for just one of these questions is “yes”: game over. If the answer for both is “yes”: game on! If the answer for both is “no”, we’ll have more questions in the search for a compromise winner… Can Bulgaria and Malta make an impact on the audience? Is Switzerland too avant-garde? Would the jury love Iceland or Lithuania? Cyprus tends to do well with both sides,… Read more »
I think Russia have 0 chance . Why do you even mention it here? The performance have quality but the song? Who will listen to that after the contest? It is More like spoken word but without good lyrics. Bulgaria is also out. It is trying to hard.
Well, I like the song and I’m not the only one here. But as I implied with the “Probably yes, but a girl can dream”, I don’t think it will happen. Top 10 is very possible, winning it’s almost impossible. Though it wouldn’t be because nobody would listen to it after the contest. “Amar Pelos Dois” and “1944” weren’t nearly seem as commercial entries and won anyway. I actually think Bulgaria can be a compromise winner. I can see both juries and televote going for it. In a scenario the audience doesn’t care about France, at least one ballad will… Read more »
i am not a lover of commercial music and love Amor dos pelos. It is fantastic music but russia is more like an arts happening event in a museum. She is not singing more like speaking but not rapping either. Spoken word is the closest I could come up with. Then it needs to be really edgy and interesting. Here it fails. For a feminist the lyrics are not that interesting either.
We’ll have to agree to disagree, because I think it’s edgy and interesting. The lyrics for example, they mix some cultural references (sadly I don’t remember where I’ve read about them, otherwise I would share the link) with a sardonic criticism of patterns that are imposed for women not just in Russia, but in many other places. But I understand that’s not for everyone and it can sound “all over the place”. I’m not normally a fan of spoken word in music, but Manizha makes it work for me. In any case, putting Russia aside, who do you think would… Read more »
Yes I can agree about that we disagree. I think the lyrics are not that good. There are so much more interesting and well made feminist songs.
France is in a similar position to Portugal in 2017.. remember that Sobral won both Jury and Televote … the Juries have more mature and refined tastes than go for a bunch of ”student anarchists doing a parody of 1970s Glam Rock”
I completely disagree with your opinion about Maneskin, but I agree that France can do exactly what Portugal did. Though Barbara has more competition. Salvador was competing basically against Kristian, since Blanche was too shy and Italy messed up with Gabbani’s staging.
Privileged anarchists in designer clothing.
If you mean to push up France, you don’t necessary need to push down others…
How the hell Netherlands is no.10?!
Because is a great song and a great perfomer, absolutely unique.
I can´t explain the sixth place of this plagiarism from Cyprus, there´s nothing special….
I did not watch any of the rehearsals; but if the Dutch team brought any part of their kick-ass video to the stage, that may explain why. And the strange thing is, I thought Jeangu’s “Grow”, from last year, was the better song.
The Netherlands tenth likely to win? Smarkets lost all of it’s credibility, since I have not seen a single person drooling over “Birth of New Age”.
My comment will be a bit off topic, but was it like this every year that rehearsals had so many views on youtube?
No, but in recent years the footage of rehearsals have gotten more public, while in previous years it was harder to get any official clips from any rehearsal.
Oooh girl! It’s gonna be a neck and neck contest this year. I already love it!!
Whether the winner is Italy or France or Malta or Iceland or Bulgaria, I’m here for it cause they all deserve a win.
They sure do! France and Italy haven’t won in 30-40 years something. Malta, Iceland and Bulgaria never won. We will have cause to celebrate no matter who ends up on top and that just makes me more excited for next week!
Italy last won in 1991 lol
But same, I’m so excited! This is gonna lit!!!
One more thing, Damiano’s outfit is really horrible. He better get the other one back for the final lmao
Italy won last in 1990 not in 1991
Italy won in 1990. The first post Berlin Wall Eurovision.
Oh yeah you’re right. I forgot Sweden won in 1991.
That’s the spirit!
The spirit of what ?
Jesus, ok, his dance moves were cringe, I totally agree with that but the staging overall was… not bad! At least not bad enough to potentially kick him out of the top would according to the bookies…
I think there’s an error in the list, Bulgaria is below Switzerland with higher odds.
that’s amazing, I am rooting for Italy! I just love the energy they bring and the song is good. I think we have many deserving entries competing for the win this year 🙂 it’s going to be a fun week!
I cant see italy winning the jury vote, also another point I wonder will france steal televote points from Switzerland or visa/versa. I want a French win but still not convinced
A song like iceland could win as it appeals to both jury and televoters. This is the toughest edition yet so many outstanding entries ! Roll on Saturday
Hahahah yes, Denmark
France is so overrated. I don’t know if Italy can win but its the only deserving one out of the top favorites.
Of all the potential winners two of them, Iceland and Malta do not have suitable Eurovision venues . What would happen in these scenarios? I know the have some smaller venues for about 3000 people but that is more suitable for a 90s Eurovision.
Reykjavik has a 18,000 seater arena, Egilshöll.
Malta could also repurpose an old hanger or ship building area like what they did for JESC, similar to Copenhagen 2014. Malta probably won’t win though so they don’t have to worry about that.
It is 18000 seater but not Eurovision suitable due to shape of roof etc . I don’t Malta will have the funds that Denmark threw at the contest and went way over budget in 2014
If Egilshöll can’t be used, then I’m sure Iceland can do a “Copenhagen 2014” then in one of their shipyards.
Iceland would have the funds to host somewhere.
Actually, Reykjavik would be a great ESC host city now that I think of it
I don’t think Iceland will win, it is cute and will be in top ten. But it will be completely blown away by Italy and France. Real quality will shine through. Iceland and Lithuania are more like quirky entries made for Eurovision. They have no life outside the contest. Måneskin on the other hand.,,
Hello hi. you are wrong.bith countries have siutable venues.
No I’m not . Neither has suitable venues . The Icelandic one would not be suitable for a tv production
Have you ever been in Malta?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/potturinn.wordpress.com/2014/07/04/thegar-eg-for-a-tonleika-med-metallica/amp/
Not suitable for Eurovision
So are you saying we shouldn’t vote for Iceland or Malta because they don’t have venues big enough? Personally I don’t have an issue with smaller venues, the larger ones are like 3 ring circuses with much of the audience watching on screen as they are so far from the stage.
I have no doubt both countries would rise to the occasion if they won.
I didn’t say that I wouldn’t vote for them because of it . I’m saying that you would think the ebu would expect criteria to be met for countries entering the competition to have a venue suitable to host year afterwards or that in the case of Australia for example who have stated that one of the big five would most likely host for them . Most likely Germany . The case would also apply for a country like San Marino
When Monaco used to participate and when it actually won, it hosted its ESC in France.
Kórinn in Kópavogur, a neighbouring town to Reykjavík, hosted the Justin Timerlake concert a few years ago. 17.000 people. So it’s definitely possible for Iceland to host the contest.
One observation: Top 2 in the odds come from National Finals- which heavily depended on public voting.
The next 2 were internally selected, but they won a national final (of some sort, for Malta) last year- and both national finals were predominantly by public vote.
The last one in the odds, North Macedonia, chose both the artist and the song internally.
My two cents for the day: Eurovision is serious business, do not leave it in the hands of some TV executives that are not in touch with the public.
Well, Duncan Laurence won the latest Eurovision and both him and his song were internally selected
Actually half of the winners, at least the recent ones, where internally selected, like Duncan, as you said, or Netta (I think), while the other half of them participated in an NF (Emmelie DeForest, Salvador Sobral etc)
Netta wasn’t internally selected, but the song itself was.
that‘s really only worth 2 cents. Conchita was selected internally, Duncan was selected internally, Salvador was sent by juries against the will of the public.
Shall I also name all of the ones that got selected by the public and failed miserably? LOL
Sometimes it‘s wise to invest more than 2 cents in a post – like some reflection beforhand.
I guess some fans are still counting chickens before they hatch.good luck everyone
I can’t say why, but I have the feeling that France and Italy will not win …and I tell you why:
a) Italy could win the public voting but not so high in the jury vote
b) France could win the jury voting but not enough points in the public vote
c) Malta or Bulgaria could end on about #3 or #4 in both groups and so it could be enough to win the ESC …..but that is just my tiny opinion.
Bulgaria no! They might win Juries but not televotes.,
Bulgaria will end up lower in the televote still, unfortunately… I see Victoria around 8th place
Other than that, I really hope you’re proven wrong
Bulgaria will not even win their semin final ; Switzerland will
Absolutely
Italy or France to win either is fine or maybe draw for both whatever as long as both top 2 I am happy. Those who had faith in Malta don’t wory you will come to accept that netta style won’t make 2nd win and as for Switzerland they decided to not use piano to avoid making obvious duncan appearance but dance is even worst which doesn’t match with poem style song, if he was to stan alone and dream on stage that is to sing his song without dancing we can appreciate him showing real connection with the song rather… Read more »
The worst case will be Cyprus with Lady Gaga 2.0.
Finally people are starting to realize how overrated “je me casse” is. France or Italy for the win, would be more than fine (especially France).
Malta was not the overrated one That was Switzerland
No, Malta is much more
According to the odds it is Switzerland that was Overrated, Mslta is still in third place.
I agree Switzerland is also a bit overrated, but much less than Malta, imo
I was not stating an opinion – only the fact thatSwitzerland have fallen the most in the odds. So it was in fact overrated. Malta is still high up and I think Destiny can win even though I would prefer that one of of the other two in the bookies top list wins.
I like both but I prefer France…
I’m still holding a grudge that madame didn’t win sanremo so maneskin annoy me that much more. I’d love Italy to win as a country but not with this please, its in no way original or groundbreaking
Seriously! My mom absolutely loved Madame and kinda hated Måneskins song. She’s pretty good at predicting the esc televote with our entires since she didn’t like our 2014 and 2016 ones (and look how those turned out!) While she absolutely adores Il Volo, Mahmood, Ermal etc. I’m sure Madame would’ve broken the female Italian esc singer curse and would’ve gotten a better result than Maneskin. But hey she’s still young, I’m sure she will be back an Sanremo soon.
That might be one of the least logical/smart comments on here.
it’s logical that I would hate the song that beat my favourite. also it’s just not a very good song, I really don’t hear what everyone else seems to hear. it’s been done so many times and so many times in eurovision and hasn’t done very well, why are people so fixated on this as opposed to say…Ukraine in 2017? I respect people’s opinions but I do kinda think some people only like this because they realise other people like it so they’ve convinced themselves it’s good when it’s really nothing special.
i was rooting for Madame in Sanremo but i’m rooting for Maneskin now. I think their energy is what we need now to get us on our feet and head banging after this depressing year
I’d be happy if Italy won, but only because I love Italy as a country and they’d put on an amazing show next year. I’d accept maneskin as the winner because I love their aesthetic, just their music isn’t exactly revolutionary.
Absolutely love this year! Everything is on the table imo any of the top 10 could win or even those under the top 10. I doubt it will be Italy though they did send better entries than this one and we all saw what happened.
I would have loved Italy to win with Grande snore and soldi. However they are in the game. Good luck to our neighbour although I don’t like song .
Ok Grande Amore was the biggest injustice in Eurovision history.
Let’s all forget the hypes, the odds, the polls, the hate for other songs because all of us want our country to win. Let’s enjoy the open ceremony tomorrow and the spectacular shows that we are about to watch.good luck to all the countries and their artists. Give us a show coz we definitely missed it last year and may the best song win. After all this is a song contest and nothing else.
I don’t want my country to win, I want Italy or Switzerland to win.
Well I don’t want my country to win………….
Because I live in the US so my country physically can’t win
How fickle people are, a few days ago Russia and Malta were the only shows in town, I suspect things will change again once the live performances start on Tuesday. People need to remember that bookie’s primary raison d’etre is to make a healthy profit and they wouldn’t exist if people weren’t so foolish with their money. The headline is also misleading as the difference between Italy and France is so small it’s hardly worth mentioning.
Well I have been for Italy since the beginning. I throughly if they can win conservative San Remo they can win Eurovision. And the bookies are usually right after the rehearsals. So I think Italy, France or malta will win. Malta can win only if Italy and France fail to attract either the public or the juries. Malta might get some of both. But I prefer that one of the others win. They are more authentic and less buying songs and staging. And why did Destiny change the dress? I am so sorry for her. She should have stuck to… Read more »
Destiny is a charismatic perfomer. Malta’s chances to win will rise again only if Destiny’s charisma will come fully to expression during her performance.
The divide is growing. Italy is now clearly on first place.
I have to say, I think this is turning out to be a very unpredictable Eurovision this year. Anything can happen and anyone can win! It’s exciting because there’s no predetermined outcome. We’ll see what happens next week. I can’t believe semi-final 1 starts in three days! It’s so going to be on my mind for a week. I wish everybody good luck and may the best entry win! Let the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 begin!
Italy,Malta,Iceland, The Netherlands are so overrated.Russia,Serbia, Denmark so underrated.
I don t see Italy in TOP 7, Malta in TOP 5. Iceland in TOP 5. The Netherlands in TOP 20. Russia I see in TOP 10 (fro 7 to 10 th place in final). Serbia and Denmark I see in TOP 13.
These are the odds on “who has the biggest chance to win”, not what place will each country get. Can you see Serbia or Denmark winning? Would you put your money on them winning?
Doubt that. Anyone has a chance to do well, but we just know some entries are not there to win, so why would anyone throw their money down the drain?
Uh huh, Serbia and Denmark are so much more deserving, real quality there. (sarcasm)
I like Denmark too…
With the juries and televote likely split between Italy and France (to a significant degree), I think there’s a real possibility that a song which features high, but not first, across many peoples’ preferences might sneak in – Switzerland. The expectation that the staging is bad might even help it. Unauthorised long clips of his performance measurably lessen the awkwardness of the dancing. With one or two camera angles tightened, the staging could even be a benefit, not a hindrance. And remember, the Press have tired of Switzerland but the majority on the night will have never seen it before.… Read more »
Yes pleaseeeee <3
Italy winning this year is highly unlikely, as the ESC public usually is not too fond of rock like this. Juries will not like it that much either, I think. But then again, they also won San Remo, so who knows. Switzerland is definitely not winning the contest, as his odd gesturing will put off many people. The jury will love France, but will the public? In my opinion, it will be either Malta or Cyprus. And who knows what will happen if Flo Rida shows up on the night. San Marino 2022 is a remote possibility, but I wouldn’t… Read more »
Please neither Malta nor Cyprus…
Im not sure if jurors would judge Italy harshly, they have great staging and it is quite original. I think it’s a bit ridiculous to say Switzerland are definitely not winning because of some hand movements, they can change them in time for the semis and final and also many of the people who have watched the entirety of the rehearsals performances were very impressed with his rehearsals, it’s too early to say anything about definitely winning or not winning imo. I do agree that the public may not be as fond of voila as jurors but I still think… Read more »
Switzerland will win the second semi final cos they will do at least as well as Bulgaria with the Juries and will do better than Bulgaria with the TV vote IMHO
Bulgaria is just too low key and Victoria is dressed casually .. she will never beat France
And you don’t remember any rock song that won Esc ?
Of course! But Hardrock Hallelujah was basically a fun package. The song was melodious in its own way and the band did not take itself too seriously, considering the costumes and all. This year’s Italian song is much “harder” and the band takes a serious approach too their song. It’s not bad, but I think it is not to the liking of the average ESC voter. Moreover, if Finland reaches the final, Italy will have to share the relatively few votes that go to this kind of music …
Italy has a massive diaspora across Europe (and Australia) that is why is does so well with the televote.
I don’t think the final result will be too far away from this :
1. Italy
2. Switzerland
3. France
4. Ukraine
5. Malta
6. Bulgaria
7. Iceland
8. Cyprus
9. Lithuania
10. Russia
Love how Ireland is 20th favorite to win yet we are considered a certain NQ when it comes to qualifying from the semi
You never know what’s going to happen
Exactly, tbh I don’t necessarily understand why we’re being viewed as almost a definite non qualifier this year as the song imo is great, a lot of other people like it too. The staging is really interesting and ambitious. If we pull it off it’ll be amazing. Some people mentioned vocals, which I understand but at the same time, a lot of acts in the rehearsals weren’t amazing vocally so I don’t think that particular critique would justify nq. I understand it’s a tough semi but I genuinely think that we have a completely unique staging concept from others in… Read more »
We should totally qualify. People keep saying vocals but I’m really not getting it, I think she sounded great in rehearsals and they where after all…rehearsals.
We should qualify but you know how it goes.
I bet you’ll qualify! (Not actually bet but you know) I love the song and the staging seems creative.
Member of polish delegation got Covid https://eurovision.tv/mediacentre/release/ebu-statement-member-of-polish-delegation-tests-positive-for-covid-19
I can’t believe they are first. well, for me they are the winners, but I strongly doubt that the average Eurovision viewer will vote for them. It is a very specific kind of music. Same with juries. I still think that France and Malta have an hedge over the others.
I’d be happy with Italy winning. The draw will definitely help with the televote, but I’m a bit worried about their jury score though. The opposite holds for France; I’m worried about their televote score but they should do very well with the juries.
Malta could still snatch it, I can see a scenario in which they’re both in the televote and jury top 3. Iceland could also surprise if they win the televote in a landslide, but I’m not confident that could happen.
Agreed, Destiny has appeal in both which can really boost her
The betting odds are drunk this year.