Now that we’ve seen all of the countries competing in Eurovision 2021 take to the stage for their rehearsals, we’re starting to get a clearer look at how the competition is shaping up. People have been betting on who they think will win the contest throughout the past week and the Smarkets prediction market has been keeping track.
Unlike bookmakers, who want to make as much money off customers as possible, Smarkets list favourites based solely on customers betting activity and how the crowd is moving.
The latest winning probabilities show Italy at the top of the list, with France falling slightly to second favourite. Iceland are also making gains.
Meanwhile, former favourite Switzerland takes a big hit, falling out of the top five favourites.
Eurovision prediction market: Italy overtakes France as favourite to win
This year might be the tightest competition in recent history. Italy has just overtaken France as favourites with the Eurovision 2021 prediction market. Måneskin’s probability of victory now sit at around 26.67%.
Their pyro-tastic first rehearsal of “Zitti E Buoni” impressed us all and put the Italian rock band back on the radar.
But France’s Barbara Pravi is still on the radar. The “Voilà” chanteuse has remained a firm favourite with fans ever since her C’est vous qui décidez victory back in January. A French win at Eurovision 2021 currently sits at a probability of 26.32% on the prediction market. There’s only 0.35% in it, so it’s still a very close battle at this point.
Elsewhere, former underdogs Iceland are also making gains. Daði og Gagnamagnið took an initial hit following the unveiling of their song “10 Years”. But now following their wonderfully quirky rehearsal, they’re back in the game. Iceland sit at fourth most likely to win with probability of 9.52%.
Further down, Gjon’s Tears from Switzerland took a harsh blow. Before rehearsals, “Tout l’Univers” sat comfortably near the top of the Eurovision 2021 prediction market, with a 16% chance of victory. But following the reveal of the Swiss act’s stage concept, people have shied away from him. He’s dropped from the second favourite and now sits as seventh most likely to win with a 5% chance at the time of writing.
Smarkets prediction market: Most likely to win Eurovision 2021
Here is the Smarkets prediction market top 20 countries most likely to win Eurovision 2021:
- Italy — 26.67%
- France — 26.32%
- Malta — 11.63%
- Iceland — 9.52%
- Bulgaria — 6.06%
- Cyprus — 5.26%
- Switzerland — 5.00%
- Ukraine — 2.50%
- Lithuania — 2.27%
- Netherlands — 1.82%
- Greece — 1.67%
- Finland — 1.67%
- Russia — 1.25%
- Sweden — 1.18%
- San Marino — 1.18%
- Croatia — 0.67%
- Norway — 0.53%
- Portugal — 0.40%
- Belgium — 0.33%
- Ireland — 0.33%
Probabilities correct as of 13:45 BST on Saturday 15 May.
What do you make of the current Eurovision 2021 Smarket prediction market? Will you be placing a bet on Eurovision 2021? Let us know in the comments below.