After another set of rehearsals from the second semi-finalists and the automatically qualified countries, once again it’s all change in the prediction markets. Here are the biggest moves…
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
Qualification chance: 65% (+19) / Final win chance: 0.5% (+0.1)
‘The Black Mamba’ were well received by the Eurovision press during their two rehearsals, with the warm staging for ‘Love Is On My Side’ doing a good job of helping the entry stand out in a section of other slow songs. Portugal are subsequently up to 8th place in the semi-final 2 qualification market.
Final win chance: 21% (+9)
With an energetic, ready-made performance, Italy made a big impression on the betting markets this week with their first rehearsal. With other contenders like Malta and Switzerland falling back a little in the odds, Måneskin propelled themselves to second-favourites to take home the trophy. It’s been 15 years since a rock entry last won the contest; is the Eurovision world ready for another?
Qualification chance: 72% (+14) / Final win chance: 0.3% (+0.1)
I hate to blow my own trumpet, but I tipped ‘Loco Loco’ pre-rehearsal as a good value bet to qualify at 62%, and Serbia appear to be well on their way. Like Måneskin, Hurricane’s energetic performance appears to have won over traders, with Serbia up 14 percentage points to qualify for the grand final.
Qualification chance: 52% (-20) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.3)
In contrast to Serbia, in my semi-final 2 preview article for Wiwibloggs, ‘Sugar’ was the entry I suggested could be a shock non-qualifier. Since then, Moldova’s qualification chances have fallen by around 20 percentage points. Unfortunately for Natalia Gordienko, her rotating stage is already done (and done better) by San Marino who open the show, potentially rendering Moldova’s staging ineffective and unmemorable.
Qualification chance: 95% (-1) / Final win chance: 6% (-11)
I really hate to say this because ‘Tout l’Univers’ has been among my favourites since the very beginning, and was my pick to win from day one, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that Switzerland may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with their staging, despite Gjon’s Tears giving a note-perfect performance. I don’t think ‘Tout l’Univers’ is completely out of the running as I have not seen the full performance yet and changes could still be made, but Switzerland’s chances have fallen significantly in the markets over the last week.
Qualification chance: 16% (-10) / Final win chance: 0.3% (-)
From the rehearsal segments released by the Eurovision YouTube channel, Poland’s staging looks quite small scale and still needs improvement (for example, pyrotechnics were covering Rafał’s face for a prolonged period of time). While ‘The Ride’ could have had an outside chance of qualification if Poland played into the retro 80s sound in their staging, that hasn’t happened and right now it doesn’t look like there is a viable path for Poland to qualify, with their televote support unlikely to make up for their likely bottom three finish with the jury.
This is the place where I was going to tip Switzerland to win the final, but following the second rehearsal I think this year’s contest is now totally up in the air and I need to go back to the drawing board. I was thinking back earlier today, and since 2008 I’ve been able to pick between one and three songs that could realistically win Eurovision, and each time the winner has been in that group. This year, I think we’re looking at a group at least twice the size. This really is the hardest contest to predict in recent memory and should make for a very exciting week. Buckle up!